The Canterbury Kid

Friday Night Lights

2008-05-23T08:30:00.001-07:00

It's not high school football...it's Canterbury Park racing. Let's get right to it...

Race 1: 5,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
5 - Go Fast - He registered a gritty W in Phoenix last out while registering a career best speed figure. He draws Paul Nolan for his local debut and should get a fair trip in here. He's likely the best in this 5 interest field.
2 - Lookatme Afleet - He may not be the most logical, but he shows a nice work over the local surface while shipping in from Tampa for Jamie Ness. He exits a win in tampa going shorter. You also get the 2B Unreal General, so that's nice.
4 - Sheba's Charm - He won on opening day going two turns and may set the pace in this heat. The lead is always a nice place to be on this oval.

Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 3 1/2 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 - Special Occasion - MN bred baby girls debut in this race. Last year, a girl named AJ Bakes crushed in the first 2 yo race of the year and she's turned out to be pretty good. I like this animal's 4 furlong work leading up this debut. It's encouraging to see a horse this young put up a 48 and change time while training at a distance longer than the race.
1 - Dark Rosa - Nevada Litfin got a very strong work out of this girl on May 12. It's nice to see champion bloodlines including A.P. Indy on the sire's side. Litfin has hit with 25% of firsters in 2008 and with 21% of 2 year olds. Lots to like and should go favored.
3 - Black Ruby - After the top two, it basically comes down to choosing your favorite Ghazi offspring, as he has sired 3 of these. I'll take Ry Eikleberry's mount on a filly that has two decent works for Vic Hanson.

Race 3: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
7 - Shady Ghazi - This field is full of animals that have shown nothing. This one, however, has actually crossed the wire first, but was DQ'd. Eikleberry is off to a good start this meet and should find the winner's circly here, albeit at a very short price.
8 - Email Alert - In his one career start he ran 9th of 11, beated by 17 lengths. That said, hey had a great work on May 16 and adds blinkers. There's a chance.
3 - Not So Timeless - I honestly don't think his last effort was as bad as it looks. He beat nearly half the field on an off surface. He hows a good local work and drops further down the class ladder. Not likely to win, but he could round out the super or tri quite nicely.

Race 4: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile
6 - Silent Preacher - If this horse could consistently get a clean trip, he'd have much more that 1 win. He tries hard every time, but often just misses. He's 10 for 19 in the money at Shakopee and is as likely as any in this group.
1 - Senor Scat - This race appears to be light on speed, which could set up nicely for the Scat. He appears to show the best early speed and will be making his second trip off the layoff. If he gets alone on the lead, he'll be tough to catch.
4 - Jagan - He drops in for a tag for the firt time in his career. After a couple of dull efforts so far this season, he'll appreciate the class relief. He seemed to improve considerably in his third start last season. If he repeats that pattern, he could run by them all.

Race 5: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
8 - On Shaky Ground - He showed good speed in his local debut before being caught at the wire. He drops a bit in class, which should be enough to graduate in the contest.
6 - Donnofghazi - Derek Bell rides for Mac on this firster. He's shown some talent in the morning and could make some noise against this crop.
4 - Tony No Socks - He also showed some good speed before fading, thanks largely to a bad start. He's been close a couple of times and should be right there again.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
5 - Tricky Titan - If you are looking to get paid, this should be the race to try something crazy. This field of statebreds is evenly matched and mediocre. I'll try Tricky Titan who has fared well at this distance in the past. He also takes a considerable class drop after running poorly against allowance foes. He's as likely as any.
8 - Ghazarino - The connections are here to produce some magic. Mike Kirby has sent out 32% winners in 2008 and Adolfo Morales is a good jockey that is due to starting winning some races. He draws a good stalking post outside which should set him up with a good trip.
6 - Sir William E - This is another Derek Bell/Mac ride that confused me a bit. He won his debut in October against open company in Ohio. Then he shifted to the poly track in Florence where the competition was just too tough. Dropping him in here against statebreds could be just what the doctor ordered. I'll take a shot with this one.

Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 - Mizzcan'tbewrong - She blowed up an allowance field in Iowa when winning at 10-1. You won't get that price here, but a repeat of anything near her last would get her to pose for pictures again.
5 - Mego - She should be your favorite after her dominating victory two weeks ago. Lots to like, except the price.
1 - Catch a Star - She'll make her 2008 debut with D Bell aboard. Her works are average, but she is 3 for 7 on this surface which is reason enough to respect her in this short field. Plus, there is a lot of speed and she seems most likely to come charging late if the front runners tire at all.

Race 8: 4,000 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
7 - Mining Gold - Let's see, there's a class drop and Ry Eikleberry and Justin Evans and a bullet work and the best last speed fig in the field, but then there's that pesky layoff. Hopefully the layoff is enough to inflate the price a little an this one looks like winner.
5 - Wicken Pancho - He closed strongly after breaking slowly on opening day. He's ripe to improve in his second trip off the layoff, so don't be surprised to see Mr. Smiley in the winner's circle.
1 - Tonys a Genius - He is 10 for 13 in the money in Shakopee. That should be reason enough to include him. The works are bit dull, but any animal that has that much success in one location demands attention.

Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claimings, 250 yards
7 - The Inclindenator - This filly debuts for Ed Ross Hardy and Tad Leggett. Those are formidable QH connections, folks.
8 - Cajun Eye Opener - She ships in from SoDak after just missing at odds-on. She shows a good work here two weeks back. Favorite.
3 - Jazzi Appeal - She has shown next to nothing in her three career starts at Remington. She shorten up in distance and shows the best morning work of the bunch.

Race 10: 5,800 Maiden Claimings, 330 yards
2 - Miss Ernie - Last seen at Arapahoe Park in 2006, this filly has taken some time to grow up. The mroning works are the best of the bunch and may suggest that this girl is ready to roll.
3 - Whirling Voodoo - He's been off for nearly a year, but boasts two rock solid morning works. So what if she's never finished better than 9th of 10? Ralph Haglund appears to have this one ready.
6 - Bills Glamour - She missed by less than a length in the Ft. Pierre Derby last time out. A repeat of that effort could result in a W.

That's how I see them tonight...

Preakness weekend wrap

2008-05-22T06:46:00.000-07:00

Alright, let's get the hyperbole out of the system early. Big Brown won in a well-compensated work in company. That's all that was. Despite being 12 horses deep, this has to be one of the saddest Preakness fields of all time. Speculation will be rampant about whether Big Brown can win the Triple Crown and whether he is actually this good or if the rest of his generation is just that bad. I lean more toward the latter on that one, but you can't take anything away from him. All he can do is beat who is willing to run against him...and that's exactly what he's done and done it impressively.

Big Brown wasn't the only horse to turn in an eye-popping effort this week. Do yourself a favor. Go here: http://www.netjamstv.com/canterbury/canterbury_report.htm and register if you have to, but watch the first race from Sunday. Something called Siphon R.N. popped the gate on a short field, set hot fractions and drew away by 24 lengths late. It was nearly Secretariat-esque, except it was a starter allowance race. I would look for this lady to have a very good season in Shakopee. You probably won't get a square price...ever...but she will likely make more trips to the winner's circle.

Canterbury has now run 7 racing programs which equates to roughly 10%. That's enough to draw some conclusions...maybe. Here are some statistics for your enjoyment...

Jockey Standings (Starts-wins-win percentage)
Derek Bell 43-10-23.3%
Paul Nolan 45-9-20%
Jason Lumpkins 43-7-16.3%
Dean Butler 41-6 14.6%
Jesse Garcia 23-4-17.4%
Scott Stevens 36-4-11.1%
Ry Eikleberry 11-4-36.4%

That's about what you would expect. Not Eikleberry's win percentage. He had a great winter at Turf Paradise and I expect him to have a great season here. He probably won't in at a 36% clip or put horses in the money at his current 55% clip, but you'll usually get a square price on an Eikleberry mount. Also of note, Manny Vazquez is 2 for 3 on the season. He'll also be riding some price horses.

Trainers
I'm not even going to bore you with the stats. Ness, Robertson and Evans are all winning at around 30% clips. No surprises there. Percy Sherbenske has won with 3 of 6 starters and Red Rarick has put 6 of 8 runners in the money, both of which are noteworthy.

Favorites
Favorites are 22 for 61 on the meet for a 36% winning percentage, which is only slighly above industry norms. When you break it down a little, some trends emerge.

Open Sprints 13 for 32 - 40.6%
Statebred Sprints 4 for 16 - 25%
Open Routes 4 for 11 - 36.4%
Statebred Routes 1 for 2 - 50%

Obviously the routes data is a bit slim, but open routes are holding true to form and statebreds offer insufficient data to draw any real conclusions. Sprints on the other hand, while collectively at 35% show some real differentiation between open company and Minnesota breds. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that most MN breds only run at Canterbury. Thus, it is hard to guage who is going to fire when first asked this season. As some of these get their second and thirds starts in on the season, I would expect to see more favorites winning. In the meantime, if you are looking for a good score, find the statebred sprints and find ways to beat the favorite.

This weekend brings us our first 4 day racing weekend which features the opening of the turf course on Saturday, the first baby race on Friday night and the return of the Canterbury Classic Wally's Choice. Yep, the 7 year old is back on the lawn on Saturday after missing all of last season with injury. It sure will be good to see the old guy back...plus Wally the Beerman is just really fun to root for...isn't he? Back later with Friday picks...

The Freakness and Friday Night Racing

2008-05-15T18:50:00.001-07:00

Tomorrow marks the return of the 7 pm post time in Shakopee. It has been a long, long offseason. I'm looking forward to my buck nights again next month, but I'll settle for tomorrow's post-dusk action. Saturday also brings leg two of the triple crown, where the infield festivities are lovingly referred to as the Freakness. Let's find some winners.

Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
2 Seismatic - We open the card with a short field of allowance sprinters. I'm not going to spend too much space on this one. The Ness/Nolan combination comes together with the best speed figures on the page. He's the chalk and should handle these.
3 Indian Hoss - Here's the best shot at an upset, but he'll be a short price too.
5 Parisian Friend - I like what I've seen from Jason Lumpkins this season. He lands here with the animal that appears to have the best gate speed. If he can shoot to the lead, he could spring the upset. Basically, I'd skip this race as there is no value to be had unless the unthinkable happens.

Race 2: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Filles and Mares
6 Officer Dont Shoot - This gal comes off a stamina builder when going a mile at Will Rogers Downs. She faded to third on that day, but I think that should give her the foundation to stay on when the favorite comes charging in the lane.
3 I'm the Mary - Here's your favorite. She brings a similar prep race into this one, except that she faded badly at Hawthorne, a track that tends to favor front runners. I'll take a stand against, but the Bell/Robertson tandem will be formidable.
4 Your Imagination - Can anyone explain to me how AP Espindola still gets the apprentice allowance? He's been an apprentice since I started coming to the races in 2005. One thing is for sure, you'll always get a price on an AP mount. The one won't win, but it stands a shot to round out a tri quite nicely in a short field.

Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 Payyourtax - This one ships in from Tampa, drops in class and shows a solid work out tab leading up to this one. Dean Butler has the mount and this one looks ready to roll in a big way.
6 Caleb Boy - He didn't run a step on opening day. He hasn't hit the board since 2006. He put in a 1 mile work on May 7 which should help get him in shape. Maybe he's done. Maybe he can hang with this at tall odds. I'm willing to take a chance.
4 Cookson - He comes off a win this March for Jamie Ness and Jason Lumpkins climbs aboard. Lots to like, but the price will be skinny.

Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 Innisbrook - He broke slowly a couple weeks ago, but rallied to miss by only a length and change. This group doesn't look too tough and if he gets away from the gate in good order, he should be set up for a W.
5 Strum Bum - The Bum comes back off short rest looking to improve. He's been known showing lightning quick early speed before fading down the stretch. He seemed to figure a few things out about winning last year. He had a nightmare trip last out, but he looks like the one to catch early, and that's a good place to be on this oval.
6 Ivans in a Tiz - He has every right to win this one, but he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct. I'd count on a minor share, though he has every right to run past them all late.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile 70 Yards
6 - Shergar's Spirit - He ran well when chasing the impressive effort of Sahan on opening day. A repeat of that effort should win this heat.
4 - Tugfire - He had some misadventures last year. He missed the break in his debut before rallying strongly late. Then he showed speed and faded in round 2, before showing speed and getting caught late in his third effort. He's working well which means he might be ready here.
5 - Youve Been Warned - He's been running well on the lawn in Phoenix, but he showed nothing here last season. Maybe he's just grown up. He's the logical pick on first glance, but there are enough questions to side elsewhere at this price.

Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Filles and Mares
7 Kayla Do - She's been running competitively against much better in Hot Springs. She hasn't won in a while, but with Bell riding for Robertson, it's going to happen soon...if not here.
1 Stop That Akki - Last time she did two turns she won. She should get a good stalking trip for Ness and Nolan. Class is a bit of question as others appear more accomplished, but she's worth a shot.
6 Rose Fever - She exits a gritty win in Chicago where she had to do battle on the lead and then hold off another foe. There are class questions here as well, but I think that last effort really shows her toughness.

Race 7: 10,000 Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs
1 Secret Fever - This one has put in four consecutive 3 furlong works at 35 seconds and change. That, folks, is some early quicks. The 7 year old is ripe to improve on with his third trip off the lay off. He's worth a shot.
7 Fizzy Pop - He's been working like a rock star, but he like to come from off the pace. That path doesn't often win at Canterbury. He wouldn't be a surprise, but I think he settles for lower prizes.
3 John Hennessy - Here is another Ness/Nolan charge that looks primed for a win. He switches out of turf sprints, but has every right to win this dirt duel anyway. The favorite.

Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
6 Cap Spring Squall - This guy has some nice morning works for 20% trainer Shawn Talbot. Sure, others seem more likely, but you get a great long shot jockey in Lori Keith aboard for what could be a very rewarding price. I'll give this one a whirl.
7 Marky P - This one looks like he should set the pace. He got caught late in his last at Tampa. If he gets clear, the rest might be running for 2nd place.
10 Pivot Pad - He takes a fat class drop here which may be just what he needs to cure his stretch fading problem. Softer company will help and a paycheck should be in order.

The Preakness
Really, there's no analysis here. Big Brown should win handily and he'll be 2-5ish. I think the pick 4 that ends on the Preakness might offer some value, but the 2nd leg is impossible. So, I'll probably pass on Preakness action.

Derby Weekend Recap

2008-05-05T08:55:00.000-07:00

So, that was the Derby...and the Oaks...and opening weekend. Whew. Let's look at what happened...

Oaks
As expected, Proud Spell surged clear through the stretch and proved much better than the rest. Somewhat surprisingly, Little Belle ran a big one to place while a bunch of logical fillies rounded out the exotics. I missed it all because I thought Little Belle was no better than the 4th best runner in the this field. Oh well, I had the winner...

Derby
Awesome. Big Brown broke from the parking lot, raced wide the whole way around and still won stylishly. It was one of the 5 greatest performances I've ever seen. That said, is he this good or is the rest of the field just that bad? Time will tell.

My derby bets were equally as atrocious as my Oaks bets, but I will say that the entire superfecta could have been made with my probables and maybes. That has to count for something...right? Okay, maybe not.

Canterbury
Here are some statistics regarding my selections for Canterbury's opening day card:
Top choice - 3 winners (33%), 1 place, 1 DQ'd from first to last, 1 scratch, 3 off the board.
Top 3 choices - 5 winners (56%) + 1 DQ'd from first to last

If I can consistently get my top choice home at a 33% (should be 44% w/DQ) clip, I'll be exceptionally happy. Yes, one of those winners was a very chalky favorite and the others were no worse than 3rd choices, but winners are winners.

I would say that Sahan ran the most visually impressive race of the day. He shot out of the gate and immediately put 2 on the field and never looked back. He looked really, really good. We'll see where he lands next.

In other news, the chaos of Derby day has left huge carryovers at Churchill for Wednesday. I'm not going to touch the Pick 6, but I may take a stab at the High 5. If I do, I'll post some thoughts here.

I'll put together a tipsheet for Saturday's card later in the week. I will actually be visiting Bay Meadows in lovely San Mateo, CA on Saturday and may post some picks for that card as well.

Kentucky Derby Thoughts, Picks & Plays

2008-05-01T15:49:00.000-07:00

As I've mentioned previously, I am thoroughly confused by this year's derby. This crop of 3 year-olds appears to be the most lackluster that I have ever seen. Now bear in mind, I've only been intently following thoroughbreds since the summer of 2005, so I only have Babaro's and Curlin's classes for comparison purposes. That said, this group looks pretty soft. Anyway, let's take a look at the field in the following manner: Probables, Maybes, Unlikelies and Throw Outs...

Throw Outs:
3 Anak Nakal - This one hasn't run a step since November. Here's here by virtue of his graded stakes earnings at 2. I don't see how this one finishes anywhere near the top half.
7 Big Truck - I can forgive the clunker at Keeneland (this will become a theme), but his wins at Tampa were against fields filled with nothingburgers. Yeah, I know he beat War Pass in the Tampa Derby, but there was something wrong with War Pass. Plus, his reputation kept away many worthy runners. Big Truck benefitted from that, but he has no chance in here.
11 Z Humor - He's here thanks to a dead heat victory in the $1 million Delta Jackpot. Can we get this race ungraded? There is no way that winning at Delta Downs, a 5 furlong track, should qualify anyone for the derby. He's been a dully 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last three. I just don't see it.
15 Adriano - He has one start on the dirt and it was a dismal 9th. He looks better suited to the poly or turf. Yeah, I know Prado chose to ride him, but I think that has more to do with timing that actually preferring this one over others.
17 Cowboy Cal - Similar to Adriano in that his one start on dirt was a clunker. Mix in the fact that he's going to want the early lead and is far off the rail and you've got my pick to run dead last.
18 Recapturetheglory - I know he has the third highest Beyer in the field, but I can't believe that the Hawthorne merry-go-round is indicative of this colt's talent. I'm sure he's a good horse, but he's another early speed type and finds himself even further outside. He may be close early, but he'll fade badly through the stretch.

Unlikelies
1 Cool Coal Man - If you ignore the Keeneland debacle, this one looks like a horse that is peaking. He owns a win over this surface and has some stamina in his pedigree from Mineshaft/A.P. Indy. Still, he'll get buried by the collapsing wall of horses leaving the gate from the rail. I don't think it's going to happen.
8 Visionaire - He was one of the few to have some success in the Blue Grass, yet he still ran 5th. His win in the Gotham was hidden in the fog, but it is widely accepted that that field was awfully weak. Basically, he hasn't beaten much and seems to be a plodder. Like Imawildandcrazyguy last year, he could find the super late, but a win is very unlikely.
12 Smooth Air - He ran a decent second behind Big Brown and he would make for a nice story for trainer Bernie Stutts. That said, he was stricken with a fever early in the week and I'm not convinced that he's right. He's unlikely to be there at the end.
13 Bob Black Jack - He ran a gritty one in near the lead in the Santa Anita Derby before being nailed late by Colonel John. He also sports the best career Beyer of any of these with a 109 in the Sunshine Millions Dash in January. All that being said, his pedigree suggests he can't get 10 furlongs and he is going to want the lead early, which may be a death wish. He is the inside speed, but I can't see this happen.
14 Monba - He comes off a sharp win in the Blue Grass and he owns a win over the Churchill dirt. That said, I think he's best suited to the fake dirt. He will be saddled by Todd Pletcher, though he couldn't win this race last year when he had 5 starters. I think this one is best ignored.

Maybes
2 Tale of Ekati - Yeah, he won the Wood, but it was really, really slow. He tracked some hot fractions set by War Pass and just got up late. He should secure a good spot early and may get first run at the leaders. That said, I just don't think he's fast enough.
4 Court Vision - He should have shown more in the Wood with the pace in front of him. Even with the perfect set up he could only get to third. Mix in the amount of traffic he will have to weave through and I think he'll settle for a minor share at best. A perfect trip could get him home first, but it's not likely.
5 Eight Belles - The filly has handled her business against her own kind and gives the boys a shot. She'll have to track fractions that are much faster than she's used to. She might be good enough, but I don't know. I think there is just too much chaos in a race like this for her to win.
16 Denis of Cork - Before that clunker in the Illinois Derby, he was among the favorites to win this. Thanks to some late defectors, he still gets into the field. If he shows the turn of foot that he showed in the Southwest, he has a shot. I just don't know whether or not the Hawthorne bomb was fluke or a hint.
19 Gayego - He was lights out in winning the Arkansas Derby. However, he is both pedigree and post-challenged in this one. Prior to the post draw, I would have told you I like Gayego as a win candidate. He's going to have to gun it early from his post to get any sort of position at the first turn. There are too many obstacles here for me to be too optimistic.

Probables
6 Z Fortune - He, too, ran a monster one in the Arkansas Derby, missing by only 3 parts of a length while parked 4 wide the whole way around. He's all but guaranteed a better position when breaking from the 6th spot and appears to be geared up to run a big one. The price should be square, too.
9 Pyro - If you cross out the Blue Grass, Pyro appears to be rounding into sharp form. The fear is that he peaked early. I have altered my DRF PPs so that the Blue Grass isn't even on the page. If he repeats his Risen Star effort, he could best these.
10 Colonel John - He's handled everything that has been thrown at him out west. The concern is that he hasn't run on dirt yet. He should have put those concerns to bed with a sharp 57 and 4 drill over this surface. He's by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, so the distance won't be a problem
20 Big Brown - Your morning line favorite is going to need a GPS to find the rail from his post. He's inexperienced, but the show he put on in the Florida Derby was too impressive to ignore. Is he better than Curlin? That one ran third in this race last year. He rates a good chance, but he has a lot to overcome.

So, that's the field. How will they finish?
1. Colonel John
2. Z Fortune
3. Pyro
4. Court Vision

Well, that's how I see it. How am I going to play it?

$20 win on #6 - Z Fortune
$1 tri 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,16,20 = $8
$1 super 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,20 w/ 4,5,6,9,16,19,20 = $30
$1 exacta box 4,6,9,10,16 = $20

$78 is more than I would ever spend on any other race, but this is the derby and the pools will be huge. Obviously, to get value out of these I'm going to need Z Fortune to run the race of his life. I think he can do it, but I have no illusions that I have any idea who will win this. If you have a strong feeling, don't be afraid to play it.

Canterbury Opening Day Picks

2008-05-01T15:36:00.000-07:00

After a long wait, the Canterbury meet starts on Saturday. Rumor has it there is racing elsewhere in the country that day, but let's stick to what's important. The card has a few races with short fields, but the Minnesota-bred races are full of intrigue. Most of these animals haven't run since last season, so picking winners may as well entail the use of a dartboard. Anyway, I found handicapping this entire card a lot easier than trying to put my thoughts together about the derby. I'll be back later tonight with my derby thoughts. Anyway, on to the picks.

Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
7 – Dark Indulgence – The 2008 season kicks of with a claimer. This fella has shown an affinity for the Canterbury dirt and had some of his best efforts at this distance last year. He’s warmed up with three fair efforts at Fonner and could take the lid lifter.
6 – Shoebootie – This one drops out of starter allowance company at Fonner and could loom a large threat to the top choice. He hasn’t shown the killer instinct needed to win lately, but he should get a share.
3 – Sheba’s Charm – This one was awful the last time he was at the races. That said, he gets one of my favorite sneaky good jockeys in Dean Butler. He’s also put together a series of steadily improving works over this surface. Not likely, but possible.

Race 2: 18,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Vanilla Scoop – This one has so many things going for it. Derek Bell rides for Mac Robertson and he has the best last race of the bunch, despite running 6th against much better. To boot, he gets plenty of speed to stalk.
2 – Jet G Amour – He won handily in South Dakota against a bunch of pets. That may suggest he’s back to his form from 2006. If that’s true, he stands a pretty decent shot at a win against this bunch.
4 – Wild Shifter – He went out on top last season when winning a stakes race here. He’s capable of getting a good stalking trip and likely grew up over the winter. In with a chance.

Race 3: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
8 – Sahan – 10 Minnesota bred maidens do battle here. None of these have run in 2008, so I’ll go with the one showing the best morning works. He showed a little talent at two last year and his works signal he’s matured. Worth a shot.
1 – Jestintime – This one showed the most talent last year and his works are just a cut below the top choice. He’ll go favored and could certainly win.
7 – Shergar’s Spirit – He also showed a little talent last year and the works a fair. If I had a dartboard I would have used that for this race. Plenty of value to be had in the dime super.

Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Motor Home – He’s been off since December, but he shows a nice 5 furlong work. Trainer Richie Scherer is 42% with horses off this kind of layoff. He’d be a surprise, but I’ll take a shot here.
1A – Nicandro – He’s run a couple of sharp ones recently in Grand Island and his form cycle suggests he should run well again. His career best speed figure came on this surface at this distance. You also get the 1 Unreal General and Jamie Ness is your trainer. All pluses.
4 – Wicked Pancho – This guy drops in class and returns to a track that he adores. He’s a career 9 for 12 in the money in Shakopee and I like his chances to make some noise in here.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Silver Wilbur – This one ran a solid 3rd in Phoenix against winners his last race. He should appreciate the drop back into the maiden ranks. He’s shown more ability than any of these and should win handily.
6 – Tahkodha Bill – This one broke my heart at 20-1 last season when he got caught late. He’s put in a couple of good works here and a good break could put him in the mix early.
3 – Grammas Golden Boy – He makes his career debut for Wally the Beerman after drilling a solid 4 furlongs on April 27. He has the same granddaddy as Barbaro. I’m not saying there is any comparison, but it is notable.
Race 6: 50,000 Shot of Gold Stakes, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Prospective Kiss – Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Derek Bell teams up with Mac Robertson on the horse with the best speed figure in the field. Did I mention they win 43% of the times they connect? It’s just not fair, and this one looks really strong in here.
2 – Seneca Summer – He won this race last year when the speed all backed up in front of him. I could envision a similar scenario this year as there appear to be plenty of speedballs to ding-dong on the lead early.
6 – Family Guy – Hey Lois, check this out: Keith Bennett has saddled 32% winners this year. This one would also benefit from blazing early fractions. There are definitely some things to like here. He’s probably the best late runner in the field.

Race 7: 18,000 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Bailey Road – There is a ton of speed in the sprint and none of these have shown any willingness to rate. This guy just ran a big one and looks primed to run well in here.
5 – Indian Hoss – He also fired a strong one last time out in Hot Springs. Derek Bell climbs aboard and should have this one in the mix early.
6 – Cinnamonsluckypic – I have a hard time trusting runners shipping in from Will Rogers Downs. That said, this one is as likely as any in here. I may be relegated to stalking the pace. If he can handle that, he could run past them all late. Paul Nolan gets the mount.

Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Alacazar – Minnesota bred girls square off and there are plenty that figure. This lady has been training well and is sent postward by 35% winning trainer Mike Kirby. He doesn’t have many horses in his barn, but he makes every start count. This could count a lot.
6 – Minnesota Mafia – She didn’t take to the Chicago slop last time and she’s the only one of these to put up a big girl Beyer. She also boasts a solid work over the local terrain. Rivera and Scherer win together at a 27% rate. Probably a favorite, but rightfully so.
10 – Minn E Scat – She’s shown some tactical speed in her career and could get a nice setup if the top two duel around the turn. The work last week was dull, but Bell’s presence offsets any concerns there.

Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Teenager – The opening day card comes to an end with a maiden claiming event for the ladies. While most of these have proven that they don’t now how to win, this one has yet to taste defeat. She’ll debut with Paul Nolan aboard and the works hint at some ability. She’s worth a shot in a wide open affair.
6 – Insureus – She broke sharply in her last before fading badly. Sprints at Canterbury tend to favor those that know how to get out of the gate. If she gets into stride quickly, she could run away from these and hide.
5 – Allthefrills – She didn’t run a step in her last, but showed a hint of talent two back. Plus, her efforts at Canterbury last season weren’t too back. Someone has to win this race…don’t they?

If you're at the track on Saturday, be on the lookout for my tipsheet. I'll place them throughout the facility, mainly on the 2nd level. If you find one and ended up here, please shoot me an e-mail to let me know where you found it so I can best place them throughout the season.

Oaks Day Preview

2008-04-30T17:32:00.000-07:00

Somewhat lost amongst the buzz of the Derby is the collection of talented fillies set to do battle in the 134th running of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. While the Derby rightfully gets all the pub, I prefer the Oaks as a betting race. You see, I'm a budget horseplayer and I can't afford to throw $200-$300 at the Derby superfecta in hopes of hitting it. With the Oaks, things tend to be a bit more formful on the top end and you can mix in some longshots and get paid on a $20ish super ticket.

After giving us Rags to Riches last year, this year's Oaks features some potential stars, though the best of them will run with the boys on Saturday. This year's Oaks will also offer us a shot to play the new Super High 5 wager, where you pick the first 5 finishers in the race. Also of note is the Oaks/Derby double. Anyway, in looking over the card, I've decided to play the pick 4 that ends with the Oaks and a couple wagers within the Oaks. Without further jibber-jabber, let's get to the races.

Race 7: 150,000 Edgewood Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on the turf, fillies
5 Gypsy Baby - This filly comes out of a sharp effort in an allowance race at Keeneland. In only her second start stateside, she rallied late and missed only by a neck. In her third start off the lay-off, she's liable to improve. She'll need to improve, but she could find the winner's circle at a decent price.
6 Grace and Power - She should go favored despite not seeing the races since December. It is of note that she ran second to Country Star in her last effort. The works suggest she's ready off the bread and trainer Steve Klesaris is 26% with animals off a 60+ day layoff. On paper she's the one to beat, but the lack of recent racing concerns me a bit. Still, she stands a very good chance.
8 My Baby Baby - On the exact opposite end of the recency spectrum we have this one. She's raced 5 times since January and seems to be showing a rather obvious form cycle. Her first three starts each showed improvement, then she dropped a bit in her fourth start. Her last effort was better and the pattern tends to suggest that she'll move forward again. A repeat of her February 16 effort at Tampa should be good enough to win against this bunch.

Race 8: Grade 3 Alysheba, 1 1/16 miles on dirt
6 Chelokee - Lots of animals to like in this one, but I'll take everyone's favorite horse that was excluded from last year's derby. Chelokee was a common pick among people leading up to the derby, but he just didn't have the earnings. Since then, what has he done? Three straight wins, that's all. The bullets work on April 25 just adds to the appeal.
4 Prom Shoes - This race appears to have plenty of speed types, but only one true closer. Despite having a name that should belong to a filly, the colt comes off a gritty win at Oaklawn. If the top flight backs up, he should be there to capitalize.
3 Magna Graduate - I was on the rail at Oaklawn last March when this guy jogged away in victory in the Razorback. He was in fantastic form back then. Now? He's still putting up big Beyers, but he can't break through. I'm not going to use him, but you have to respect him.

Race 9: Grade 3 Crown Royal American Turf, 1 1/16 miles on turf
8 Prussian - I'm a huge fan of Crown Royal and Otto Von Bismarck...the latter was a Prussia, the former is the race's sponser. Anyway the angle her is quite simple. Every time this guy has run on firm turf he's won, including the G3 Summer stakes at Woodbine last fall. He ran a fair rain on the poly last time. I think the firm turf would send him home a winner.
10 Boss Lafitte - This guy beat my top choice home in their last race and he figures to be the beneficiary if the speed tires. He made up a ton of ground at Fair Grounds in March to miss by only a length.
2 Nistle's Crunch - After hanging close to Big Brown through the first half of the Florida Derby, this guy faded badly to finish 7th. He ran a sharp one of the turf last out and looks primed for a peak effort here. As note, the last effort in graded stakes company didn't go so well, but he may have found his niche on the lawn.

Race 10: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 1 1/8 miles on dirt, fillies
8 Proud Spell - Since Eight Belles will scratch out, Proud Spell becomes the strong choice. Throw out that clunker at Keeneland and you've got a clear cut favorite. She's the only horse to beat the 2 year old champion filly Indian Blessing. Really, I don't have much to add. She'll be a short price, but she should be good for it.
11 Pure Clan - She spent her spring chasing Eight Belles home. How good is this one? There are plenty of things to like here and she's a perfect 2 for 2 at Churchill. I don't think she can beat my top choice, but I wouldn't be shocked if she did.
10 Bsharpsonata - She recently won four straight stakes and missed by a neck in the Ashland. The two above are a cut above the rest, but this one is solid number 3. With some bad luck above, this one could find her way home first...but she'll need some help.
5 Rasierra - Yeah, she's 50-1 on the morning line and broke her maiden in Iowa...oh yeah, and she was fifth in a stakes at Canterbury. That said, I like that effort when running second in her last. She won't win this, but she could hit the ticket and juice the super and/or high 5.

With all that said, here are the plays I'll be making on Friday
$1 pick 4 beginning race 7: 5,6,8 w/6 w/2,8,9,10 w/8 = $12
$1 Trifecta race 10: 8 w/ 10, 11 w/1,3,6,7,10,11 = $10
$1 Superfecta race 10: 8 w/ 10,11 w/ 7,10,11 w/ 1,3,5,6,7,10,11 = $20
$1 Super High 5 (why not?) race 10: 8 w/ 11 w/ 10 w/ 1,3,5,6,7 w/ 1,3,5,6,7 = $20

That's $62 worth of plays for Oaks day. I'll probably make a few other bets throughout the day, but the picks above are certainties.

As mentioned before, I'll be back tomorrow and/or Friday with more derby day thoughts and picks.

The Derby - in 2 words or less...

2008-04-30T15:53:00.000-07:00

Alright, this Derby is the muddiest I've ever seen...and that's not counting the possibility of actual mud for the race. There are 8-10 of these animals that could win and I wouldn't be surprised. The post draw happened about an hour ago and it helps clear a few things up. I plan to look things over intently tonight and post my full derby thoughts tomorrow. I'll also get my picks for the opening day card at Canterbury posted tomorrow or Friday as well. Anyway, here's the field, articulated in 2 words or less...

Post Horse - Jockey
1. Cool Coal Man - Julien Leparoux -Likes dirt
2. Tale of Ekati - Eibar Coa - Slow time
3. Anak Nakal - Rafael Bejarano - No business
4. Court Vision - Garrett Gomez - In blinkers?
5. Eight Belles - Gabriel Saez - The girl
6. Z Fortune - Robby Albarado - Peaking?
7. Big Truck - Javier Castellano - Small Chance
8. Visionaire - Jose Lezcano - Fog?
9. Pyro - Shaun Bridgmohan - Hates poly
10. Colonel John - Corey Nakatani - The favorite
11. Z Humor - Rene Douglas - Just awful
12. Smooth Air - Manoel Cruz - Sentimental choice
13. Bob Black Jack - Richard Migliore - Will bust
14. Monba - Ramon Dominguez - Pletcher's hope
15. Adriano - Edgar Prado - Hates dirt?
16. Denis of Cork - Calvin Borel - Jockey repeat?
17. Cowboy Cal - John Valazquez - Needs lead
18. Recapturetheglory - E.T. Baird - Cheap speed
19. Gayego - Mike Smith - Too wide
20. Big Brown - Kent Desomeaux - Needs GPS

I'll delve into some of these comments tomorrow and provide my full analysis. Until then, post your picks below...

Winter Happenings

2008-04-10T12:08:00.000-07:00

It's 40 degrees outside and the weatherman is only forecasting 4-8 inches of snow for the weekend. It must be springtime. I've left the blog dormant since the Breeders Cup because I just didn't have much to say. Let's briefly recap what happened since my last post in October.

1) I dominated the Breeeders Cup.
You can see the picks. They've been posted there for months. There were 11 races and my final tally looked something like this:
Winners: 3
Places: 4
Shows: 1
Off-the-board: 3

Yeah, that's 27% winners and 73% on the board. That said, my betting was totally awful. I think I came home broke, save for the $10 win-place ticket I had on Curlin. Eh, it wasn't awful.

2) Curlin is pretty good.
So, did you see that effort in Dubai? In a word: Sick. Those are the best horses in the world and he ran past them all as if he was out for a jog. It's a shame that he didn't get an earlier start to his career, otherwise we may have had our Triple Crown winner last year.

3) Have ponies? Will travel.
The Canterbury Kid got his travel on over the fall/winter. In my quest to visit as many tracks as possible, I hit up the facilities at Remington and Retama last October, Oaklawn this March and Hawthorne last weekend. There are future plans to visit Prairie Meadows and Fonner Park in April, Bay Meadows in May before it closes up shop and becomes condos and Colonial Downs in June. Other plans are yet to be determined, but I can all but guarantee a trip somewhere else before the calendar says 2009. I may post some commentary and photos at a later point.

4) Kentucky Derby? Clear as Mud.
As typically happens, there have been a number of stories about the downfall of the 2 year-old champion (War Pass) and the emergence of the next big thing (Big Brown). However, 23 days before the derby, we still have no real idea who is the horse to beat. Sure, Big Brown crushed the field in the Florida Derby while breaking from the 12 hole, which the media made seem like he was starting in Ocala while the rest of the field was still in Hallandale. Pyro has handled his business thus far, but we'll see what happens this weekend when he faces a field chock-full of horses near his equal. I'll have more thoughts on this as the day approaches and will definitely post some picks.

5) Seth Martinez can ride anything, anywhere.
Remember the former Canterbury leading rider named Seth Martinez? Yeah, he was around last year, but after he and Mac Robertson had a falling out, Seth just didn't seem to be as good...or maybe it was the "quality" of many of his mounts. Either way, playing against Seth was a decent way to avoid underlays during much of the back half of last season. Well, a funny thing happened, Seth wintered in Phoenix and is currently the leading rider at Turf Paradise. To date, he's won 118 races from 626 mounts. That's 19%, folks. If he's back at Canterbury in a couple weeks, he seems revitalized and will be a force to be reckoned with. Derek Bell and Paul Nolan beware.

6) Other Canterbury jockeys have success elsewhere, too.
Seth isn't the only one finding success in places warmer...or at least different. Tanner Riggs had a great fall meet at Hawthorne in Chicago and currently sits in 2nd place in the current meet. Ry Eikleberry is 4th at the current Turf Paradise meet while Dean Butler and Jesse Garcia have been their usual, solid selves in Tampa, though the winners for those two have been less abundant. Finally, Dylan Williams won the riding title at Turfway in the fall before taking his tack to Oaklawn where he sits 5th heading into the final weekend. Oh, and Paul Nolan? He was 3rd at the recently-concluded Sam Houston meet...and Martin Escobar, after a down meet here last season, finished 6th.

7) Goals, plans and other things...
Last year, I was kind of haphazard with my posting. This year, I plan to adhere to some form of schedule. Basically, I'll post picks for every Thursday card and probably one weekend day. I'll review how the selections panned out on Monday or Tuesday and keep a running tally of win and in-the-money percentages. I'll also offer some betting suggestions and some post-race commentary. Plus, I'll post simulcasting ideas as I find them prudent. In short, I've got some big plans for the blog this season. Keep an eye out for the tipsheets around the Park and let's have a profitable season.

Lastly, I always welcome your e-mails at canterburykid@gmail.com

Breeders' Cup Selections

2007-10-25T19:13:00.000-07:00

Hey folks,

I've taken a bit of a break from gambling lately, but I'm back with the BC picks. I'm not picking the top three in any race, but rather giving my win selection and a couple of other options for the gimmicks. I will say, just about any horse can win any of these races. This is my best guess. Your mileage may vary. Good luck!

Friday:

Filly and Mare Sprint
Maryfield. I think the speedy favorites Dream Rush and La Traviata burn each other out, setting up this one's late run at a very square price. Miss Macy Sue could also benefit from the pace.

Juvenile Turf
Achill Island. He may not be the best European on paper, but I think he's the best prepared. His last trip was a nightmare yet he still only missed by 3 parts or a length. Prussian is the best American hope, but I'll go on record with Achill Island.

Dirt Mile
Discreet Cat. This one was a monster before things went bad. The connections say he's ready. If that's true, he destroys this field. For an outsider, look at Park Avenue Ball. He's 10 for 10 in the money at Monmouth and his career best performance came at this distance.

Saturday

Juvenile Fillies
Proud Spell. Although Indian Blessing will rightfully go favored, I'll take a shot with this unbeaten filly. Her wins have been impressive and she's shown an ability to close late which is a great trait in a race of speedballs. A to the Croft also fits the mold, but is stranded in post 14.

Juvenile
War Pass. He'll likely be the favorite, but he appears to be geared up for a big effort. He's undefeated and has put in a string of five straight bullets. Pyro's late-running style could benefit from a hot pace scenario.

Filly and Mare Turf
Honey Ryder. She didn't take to the soft footing at Arlington last out, but she is the classiest dame in the field, having raced successfully against the boys on several occasions. The undefeated Nashoba's Key with 17 year old rider Joe Talamo poses a considerable threat, but I'll take the veteran. Arravale would be a surprise, but she appears cranked up for a peak performance.

Sprint
Kelly's Landing. He last raced at Dubai in March and won the $2M Golden Shaheen. The layoff is a concern, but the work pattern is solid and he's proven to fire off the bench. If he's not ready, Smokey Stover is your gelding, fresh off a sharp win over this course in September.

Mile
Excellent Art. He's battle tested having only run in stakes company, and he's won 4 of 9. The Euros tend to dominate the lawn racing and this appears no different. My Typhoon has been the victim of a couple stumbles in her last two. I question the move to face boys here, but she may be good enough if she doesn't trip.

Distaff
Lear's Princess. She's never been worse than second and beat the Belmont winner Rags to Riches in her last effort. Granted, Rags probably wasn't too sharp for that effort, but she beat her nonetheless. Lots to like here. Octave is a professional bridesmaid and will likely get a minor slice. Hystericalady ran a sharp one over this surface this summer.

Turf
Dylan Thomas. Those of you playing the late pick 4, single this one and move on. He's the best 1 1/2 mile horse on the planet and should best this bunch. Last year's winner Red Rocks stands a shot to upset as a good price, but Dylan Thomas is the pick and most likely winner on the card.

Classic
Curlin. Our baby boy has grown up before our eyes this year. A green colt, unraced at two somehow found the board in the Derby. Then, he won the Preakness. In his last effort he bested morning line favorite Lawyer Ron in the Gold Cup. Of concern is his dull 3rd place effort in the Haskell at Monmouth in August. Lawyer Ron would be no surprise either after a couple monster wins this summer. Look for Tiago and Diamond Stripes to have a shot at hitting the superfecta ticket at very nice prices.

Week 4 Picks

2007-09-27T14:07:00.000-07:00

Last week didn't exactly go as planned as we posted a 1-2-1 record to fall to 5-6-1 and a minus 2.6 units. This isn't where we wanted to be at this point. However, we've learned some things and it's time to get onto the plus side of the ledger. Let's get to the picks.

Green Bay -2 v. Minnesota As a Viking fan, it hurts to type this, but Brett Favre's Packers are good and. My Vikings are one-dimensional and the Packer defense is legit. Then, the anemic Chief's passing game exploit the one weakness in the Viking defense. Newsflash: The only thing the Packers can do is pass. GB -2.

Philadelphia -3 @ New York Giants Which performance last week was the anomoly: Philadelphia blowing up Detroit or the Giants playing some defense against Washington? I'm going to lean towards the Giants being anomolous and Philly looking like what we expected. PHI -3.

St. Louis @ Dallas O/U 46 Dallas will blow out St. Louis. There is little doubt about that, but the 12.5 point spread could be busted in garbage time. Instead, I'll play St. Louis to beat a suspect Dallas secondary often enough to push this total into the 50's. Dallas will jump out early forcing St. Louis to pass early and often. That should lead to plenty of points. STL/DAL OV 46

Baltimore -4.5 @ Cleveland Last week we won playing against Baltimore and their now 0-3 record ATS. Sure, Cleveland got blown out in their opener, but are 2-0 ATS since. Until Baltimore can cover a spread, continue to take the points. CLE +4.5.

Recap:
GB -2 @ MIN
PHI -3 @ NYG
STL/DAL OV 46
CLE +4.5 v. BAL

Week 3 Picks

2007-09-20T10:45:00.000-07:00

So, last week didn't turn out exactly as planned. Actually, it didn't turn out anything like the plan. New Orleans and Cincinnati both lost outright, though the Colts did stay to the under and Green Bay won their game outright. So, we went 2-2 on the week, but we lost our 2 unit play leading to a net loss on the week of 1.3 units for a season tally of 4-4 and a minus 1.4 units. We're getting back on the horse this week and making some money.

But first, speaking of horses, I just haven't found time to post anything racing related. I'll probably shut down the racing aspect until Breeders' Cup week where I'll hit it good and hard again. Then, I'll shut it down again until the big three year old prep races start up at Gulfstream, Aqueduct and Santa Anita. Sorry, but with the NFL here, horses have taken a back seat.

On with the picks...
Indianapolis @ Houston O/U 48 I've been picking on the Colts to the under all year. I didn't post it, but I played the under against the Saints as well. With Andre Johnson out, I struggle to find more than about 10 points for the Texans. This matchup doesn't have the same favorable trends as the Tenessee matchup did, but Houston has kind of found a defense this year. Give me the Under 48 for 1 unit.

New York Jets -3 v. Miami The Jets really showed some heart in nearly coming back to win at Baltimore last week. Tom Jones is healthy and Miami has been less than good thus far, including last week's route at home by Dallas. Fireman Ed might be questionable for the Jets this week, but I think playing at home will be enough to cover 3. NYJ -3 for 1 unit.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay O/U 38 This one almost seems too easy. Tampa comes off a game where they lit up the scoreboard for 4 TDs and the Rams are the Rams, meaning they sheould get at least 2 touchdowns. Plus, the Rams are desperate after starting 0-2. This number should sail to the over. STL/TB OV 38 for 1 unit.

Arizona +8 @ Baltimore From a pure football perspective, this one is a bit of a stretch. However, from an investing perspective, it's quite elementary. Arizona is a perfect 2-0 against the spread and Baltimore is an accommodative 0-2. Both Cincinnati and New York showed that this defense can be beat through the air. Look for the singing birds to hang with the birds that live in groups called murders. Arizona +8 for 1 unit.

To recap, let's try the following plays for 1 unit each.
IND/HOU UN 48
NYJ -3 v. MIA
STL/TB OV 38
AZ +8 @ BAL

Week 2 Preview

2007-09-14T15:39:00.000-07:00

Last week was full of potential. I hit on my two early game predictions, leaving me with a live three team parlay heading into the night game. Folks, this is an ideal situation to find yourself in. At this point, you can guarantee that you win the payoff amount of your parlay by insuring yourself with a bet on the opposite side. If you didn't insure your parlay, you found yourself out .1 units last weekend. Any amount you had wagered on the opposite of your final parlay leg would have improved this. Sure, it could reduce your profit, but a little peace of mind can make a late game much more enjoyable.

Anyway, let's make some money...

New Orleans -3 1/2 @ Tampa
The Saints looked awful to open the season last week. That said, Tampa is in the running for being the worst team in the NFL. The formula here fits the formula we used with the Pittsburgh game to a T. New Orleans is clearly the superior team being asked to cover a smallish spread because they are on the road. If this game is in Louisiana, it's an 8 or 9 point spread. Play New Orleans for 2 units.

Cincinnati -7 @ Cleveland
Yes, I'm picking on the Browns again. They were awful last week and have since traded their starting QB. Cincy caused 6 turnovers against an experienced Baltimore offense last week. What is Derek Anderson going to do? Brady Quinn? Please. Lay the touchdown for one unit.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee Over/Under 46
Indy looked dominant last week while Tennessee had to fight and claw their way to victory. The last four times these teams have met they've stayed under this number. Also, when the Colts travel to Tennessee, they seem to forget the firepower at home. Look for a lot of running in this one as it stays below the number. Play the under for 1 unit.

Green Bay +2 1/2 @ New York Giants
I think the wrong team is favored here. The Packers beat the Eagles in a close one last week while the Giants got man-handled by the Cowboys last week. Mix in the fact that the Pillsbury Throwboy will be under center and something called Derrick Ward will be taking the carries for the G-men and things look pretty bright for those from the land of cheese. Play the Pack +2 1/2 for 1 unit.

To recap:
New Orleans -3 1/2 for 2 units
Cincinnati -7 for 1 unit
Indy/Tennessee Under 46 for 1 unit
Green Bay +2 1/2 for 1 unit

When you're wrong, you're wrong.

2007-09-10T11:39:00.000-07:00

Well, yesterday's picks produced some mixed results. The Steelers easily covered the 4 1/2 against Cleveland and Tennessee and Jacksonville didn't get close to the 38. Everything was shaping up nicely heading into the Sunday night contest. Then the wheels fell off. I suggested the under 44, which Dallas actually covered by themselves en route to a 45-35 victory over the Giants. For the most part, the early season under trend held as just 4 games in week one went over the number. I happened to pick one of the games that went over. I'm honestly shocked at just how bad both defenses looked last night.

The three individual plays I presented went 2-1 and the parlay obviously lost. Using the standard juice of 1.1-1, we should have lost .1 units. Not what I was looking for, but not a catastrophe either.

Anyway, tonight brings a double header. For many gamblers, Monday night is the ultimate get-even night to make up for the losses incurred on Sunday. Avoid the temptation to play heavily on Monday night. Usually, unless you have a strong opinion about the game when the lines are published, you should pass on Monday night. If I have a Monday play, I'll post it with my Sunday picks on Friday.

So tonight, sit back, crack open a cold one (or six) and enjoy what should be some entertaining football.

That's a wrap...

2007-09-07T08:46:00.000-07:00

Well, the Canterbury spring/summer meet came to a close on Monday with someone housing the pick 6 for size at nearly 28k. I went 4 of 6 in hopes of a closing day inflated consolation payout. Overall the meet presented mixed results. Handle was down against the prior year, but attendance was up for the 11th straight year.

The jockey and trainer project I was working on proved to be too large and ambitious for me to get it done before the meet was over, so I punted. In fall, I turn my play toward Hoosier, Turfway and Remington. I'm attempting to do the trainer/jockey project on the Remington meet thus far so that it can actually prove useful information that can be used on the rest of the meet. Posting race picks will be more infrequent, but one sheet weekly is probably about right. I'll also have a series of postings leading up to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Monmouth on October 26 and 27. Expect picks to be posted October 25.

Also, the NFL season kicked off last night and I'll be taking looks opportunities to capitalize on NFL point spreads and totals. Last year I won with just over 60% of my picks. Anyway, let's take a look at a couple of opportunities for this weekend...

Pittsburgh -4 1/2 @ Cleveland
Generally, I dislike playing the road favorite. Too many weird things happen on the road. However, Pittsburgh is the superior team in this one. Cleveland is pretty much a mess and the pressure is on to perform this season. They may win 6 or 7 games, but I think they get handled in this one. Pittsburgh -4 1/2

Tennessee @ Jacksonville O/U 38
Early in the season the defenses tend to have the upper hand on the offenses, typically leading to week 1 and 2 games staying to the under. It started last night with the total staying under the 53 1/2 total. Last season, only 4 week 1 games went over 40 total points. Both of these teams have good to great defenses and neither have standout offenses. Give me the under 38.

New York Giants @ Dallas O/U 44
This is a play on the same trend. Also, mix in Romo's struggles against the Giants in his brief career as a starter and I think you have all the makings of a 20-10 kind of game. Under 44.

If sports gambling were legal in my state, these would be my three plays of the weekend. I'd play them all for 1 unit and parlay the trio for 1 unit as well.

To recap:
Pittsburgh -4 1/2 for 1 unit.
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 38 for 1 unit.
NYG/Dallas Under 44 for 1 unit.
3 team parlay of the above for 1 unit.

Sunny Saturday

2007-09-01T08:28:00.001-07:00

Today's card finally features some great fields. Intrigue abounds. Let's get some winners.

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Fabulous Babe – This bunch doesn’t show a ton of talent, so I’m going to try this first timer. She shoes the best works of the bunch and has yet to taste defeat. Give her a look.
4 – Sky N Mighty – His debut was awful, but his works leading up to it and after suggest a bunch of talent. Forgive the debut and you might have your winner.
1 – Ondefencenightly – As we’ve discussed before, trainer Bryan Porter has put a ridiculous portion of his runners in the money this season. This one is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money despite never being closer than 6 lengths from the victor. She’s not likely to win, but a minor share is likely.

Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Susan’s Song – This versatile mare looks tough to beat here. She’s shown the ability to take the early lead or close smartly off a strong pace. I think the latter will happen here, but if the leaders get lazy early, she’ll jump to the fore earlier. She should be the winner.
7 – Wine and Spirits – She’s thrown in a few dull efforts of late, but ran a nice second to a horse that, quite frankly, it running out of her shoes right now in Go Go Diablo. I don’t know that she can beat the above, but she should be in the mix late.
4 – Pop the Latch – This one wheels back on just 8 days of rest, which suggests she’s sharp. She won that race against many of these same entrants. She would be no surprise.

Race 3: 21,675 Allowance, 6 ½ Furlongs
8 – Isleseeyousoon – This is a contentious allowance sprint and I’ll take the outside marker. There is a good mix of speed and closers in here, but a lot have class questions. This one is proven from a class perspective as he’s run well against both allowance and stakes foes. He should also appreciate the extra 110 yards of this race.
2 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This gelding has won his last two efforts. The big questions here are class and pace. He’ll have early company, but he proved he could last in his most recent effort. His previous tries against allowance foes this season have been dull, but he’s sharp.
4 – Plum Wild Again – He closed strongly in his last to win despite encountering trouble and changing course at the 1/16th pole. Again, class is the question, but a minor prize is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Race 4: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Icy Tobin – This almost isn’t fair. Icy Tobin is the ace sprinter on the grounds and he’ll set a very fast pace. This is a contentious battle, but when you factor in that you also get the stretch-running 1A America West, this should be the shortest price of the day.
6 – Fancy Gold – This mare takes on the boys after crushing a field of boys last out. She’s sharp and will be a handful for this bunch to handle.
2 – Lite Brigade – He’s a perfect 10 for 10 in the top two this year. He’s up against it here, but he definitely fits and could upset the top choice.

Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silk Selena – She returns to the races after running a solid third against similar. She’s put in a bullet work to boot. Mix in the jock change to Butler and I like this one.
1 – Somerset Girl – There is a ton of speed in here which should set this one up for a nice late-charging trip. She’s the best closer in the field and you know Nolan will give her the best trip possible.
4 – Dynabelle – Similarly, this one will put in a late run as well. She comes off a win at 6 ½ furlongs against claimers. Class could be problem, but she’s still in with a chance.
Race 6: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
8 – Mister Millu – There is only one bit of information to consider here. His July 20 race against allowance foes on this course netted him a second place finish, losing by just a neck. A repeat of that effort earns him a win. The class drop will help.
4 – Claires Connection – Toss the last race in the slop and you’ve got a very sharp turf horse. If that slop-tainted effort didn’t ruin his confidence, he’ll be tough to beat.
1 – Reengage – He’s got a big strong closing kick, but I’m not sure there will be enough pace to set it up. Then again, with as powerfully as he’s been closing, it may not matter what happens early.

Race 7: 45,000 Stakes, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Beyond the Reach – Single this one in the pick 6 and/or pick 4 and move on. She’s razor sharp and has the best speed figures of this bunch by a fair margin. Montalvo drives in from Iowa to ride. Formidable.
9 – Thanks for the Tip – She chased the super-impressive Run With Joy in the Frances Genter and finished second. She’s a good filly, but I’m afraid she’s run into another giant.
3 – Cant catch Judy – She’s done some damage against stakes foes this year in earning a win and a few minor shares. I’d look for the latter here.

Race 8: 10,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
5 – Unreal General – This guy has just been good this season. He’s 8 for 10 in the money on the year and has won or placed in 7 straight. He’s just good and impossible to ignore.
4 – Castor Troy – He’s been very impressive as well and just ran second to the above when washed off the lawn. These two should be very close at the wire.
2 – Trinity River – The 10 year-old has shown he’s not over the hill yet. He’s run second in two consecutive races. I’m not sure he can hang with the tandem above, but he’ll give his all.

Race 9: 45,000 Stakes, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Ghazi Up – He should dominate this field. He’s given 3 straight 80+ Beyer-worthy performances, which is more than the rest of the field combined: 0. Short priced favorite.
5 – Jagan – He’s been consistent this year, but seems to have topped out. He’ll likely settle for a piece of the gimmicks here.
1 – Dakota Hills – He just won an allowance race which suggests he’s sharp. Unfortunately for his connections, with the top choice in here, a minor award is the ceiling.

Race 10: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Miss Fancy Gold – She’s been knocking on the door, but hasn’t quite broken through yet. This is a pretty soft spot which may be conducive to maiden breaking.
6 – Wild Irish Rose – 30-somethings, if this doesn’t bring back college memories, I don’t know what will. While her namesake is a crappy wine, this first time starter appears to have some talent. The workout patterns are good and the Bell/Robertson connections are the best on the property. Very possible.
11 – Rockin E C and D C – She closed well in her last, but missed by a nose. She should offer some value on the underside of the exotics. Very playable.

Final Friday

2007-08-31T09:23:00.000-07:00

After passing on last night's action, we're back to play the Friday card. It's only marginally better than last night's card, but it's an improvement nonetheless. Last week was plagued by the continuing August monsoon that hit Minnesota, but the last week has been sunny and pleasant which gives us the preferred fast and firm track conditions. I'll be back later today with the Saturday and Sunday picks.

Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
5 – My Friend Deke – The pace scenario isn’t ideal for this front-running type, but he’s been ultra-consistent all season in finishing off the board just once. Better still, in three efforts on the lawn, he’s been within less than a length of the winner at the end. If he doesn’t get caught up in a duel, he could finally get win number one on the year.
4 – Rallywithclass – He ran a strong one last time out, finishing second despite a rough trip. The distance is a question, and he only has one painfully average turf effort, but he certainly figures here for the top connections.
9 – Sushi Joe – There’s a lot of speed in here and this one is a confirmed grinder. It’s unlikely that he’ll win, but a minor award and some juice in the super are both possible.

Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He just missed against a very similar bunch last time. He’s a perfect 3 for 3 in the money this year and his worst defeat is by 3 parts of a length. The horse that beat him last time was on a considerable class drop and shipped in from Arlington. I don’t see anyone with those credentials here.
7 – Kasyno – He hasn’t run since early July, but he will set the early fractions. It doesn’t appear that he will have much company on the lead either. If he can relax on the lead, he’ll be long gone. The three furlong bullet adds to the intrigue.
2 – So Smooth – This one ships in from Arlington, but takes a step up in class. He’s been off his game in two polytrack efforts, but his prior turf form is more than enough to win against these. If the poly hasn’t ruined his confidence, he’ll be prominent at the wire.

Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
2 – Kelsey Miss – She figures to get a good stalking trip in here and may offer some value in a short field figured to be dominated by the one below.
4 – Princess Courtney – Her dirt form is suspect, to say the least, but she drops down the class ladder to a level at which she’s never run and her worst effort this season at Canterbury puts her in contention. She’ll be a very short price to kick off the pick 6.
6 – Consequently – Dismiss her last race on the slop and you’ve got a contender, though it’s hard to ignore the occasional clunker she runs. Playable in all wagers, but buyer beware.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tahkodha Bill – He ran very well in placing at 20-1 last time out, only getting caught at the wire. His debut was ugly and he was just nipped last time and I think he takes the big step forward to pose for pictures tonight. In a bit of an oddity, he may be the lone speed in a 2 year-old field.
5 – He’s No Piker – This first time starter for Justin Evans appears ready. Evans wins with 20% of firsters, too. Add in that jockey Lori Keith has put an astonishing 57% of her mounts in the money and the solid work pattern and you’ve got a playable one here.
7 – The Real Story – He’ll go favored, and deservedly so. He’s run a couple of nice races where he was gaining late. Somewhat puzzlingly Nolan takes over for Bell and Bravo adds blinkers in an attempt to get him more involved early.

Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Booster – He’s had some issues with wet tracks recently and should welcome a return to a fast track. He’s definitely the speed of the speed and will be the one to catch as they turn for home. He’s missed the board only once this season and shouldn’t miss it here.
1 – Lonesome Traveler – He blew in from the Windy City and stole his last race. This bunch is quite similar. He should sit just behind the above and pose the first challenge.
3 – Dark Indulgence – If either of the above don’t finish strongly, this one will be charging late and will make them pay. Morales has caught a bit of a hot streak lately and he’s very playable over the weekend.

Race 6: 21,675 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yrads
5 – Silent Preacher – He was clearly the best horse in his last effort, yet fell short. He broke awkwardly and was hung wide throughout, yet still closed to only miss by ¾ of a length. He climbs the class ladder a bit here, but a clean break earns him a check.
6 – Banker’s D Light – He drops out of a couple stakes efforts that actually weren’t too bad. He should appreciate the class relief and could best this bunch.
4 – Lowell Dean – Personally, I strongly dislike this animal, but he appears to be the most likely of the rest to hit the board. Plus, it’s important to not let emotions get in the way of making your bets, so I’ll reluctantly give this one a shot here.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Strum Bum – The Bum has one speed: Fast. He’ll bust the gate and put some distance between him and the field and sprint until he can run no more. Historically, he’d stop around the 1/8th pole, but this season he’s shown a little something extra. On paper he’s overmatched here, but I’ll take the Bum.
3 – Red Roller – He should go favored in here. He takes drop in class after finishing 2nd twice against allowance foes. He’ll have to catch the Bum, but he appears tough in here.
6 – Tez Taran – He’s a versatile type that should fall in nicely behind the Bum and stalk him all around. He also drops in class and 6 furlongs is definitely his game. Martinez keeps the mount and looks to atone for a poor effort last time out.

Race 8: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
1 – Audiahvo – He’s one of my favorite horses and he drops down to the class level that produced his last win. He’s a confirmed stretch runner and the pace scenario couldn’t be better for him as it appears at least three of his opponents are going to fight for the early lead.
5 – El Grande Seville – Of the speed, this one appears to be the best. He also drops in class after running second last time out in the slop. He’s thrown in some dull efforts this season, but he’s playable on class alone.
7 – Perfectly Quick – Dean Butler figures to give this one a nice stalking trip behind the pace battle. He’s run progressively better in each of his last three efforts and is 4 for 5 in the money at Canterbury. He’ll have to fight off the top choice late, but he’s in with a chance.

Closing Weekend

2007-08-30T08:15:00.000-07:00

Closing weekend is upon us and it’s going to be a 5-day blowout. Every horse on the grounds is going to run this weekend. Okay, maybe not every horse, but most of them. As of now, entries have been finalized up through Saturday. Tonight’s card is awfully thin with a bunch of 6 and 7 horse fields, so I’m going to pass on tonight’s action. Friday's card is better and I’ll get picks for that card out either late tonight or early tomorrow. Saturday’s card is nothing short of fantastic with all but one field drawing 8 or more interests. The short field is a very, very contentious sprint which should be very fun to watch and may offer some profitable wagering angles. I know I usually post picks on Friday, but the skinny fields paired with being right in the middle of fantasy football draft season have led me to pass on tonight’s action. We’ll get some winners over the rest of the weekend, though. You can count on that.

After the rain...

2007-08-23T09:23:00.000-07:00

Travers stakes weekend kicks off with a buck night card that actually features a couple allowance races. Although the fields are smallish, this is actually a pretty fair betting card. I think the best value will be found in the pick 3 and pick 4 pools, though doubles might not be bad. Forget about hitting a big tri with these fields. The lid lifter and the second race are both scheduled on the lawn, but it’s been raining pretty much all week so I would expect both to be moved to the dirt. If that happens, disregard much of what I say about those races. If on the dirt, I like Instant Attraction in the first and Willy Wompus and Castor Troy in the second. Good luck!

Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares, Turf
6 – Stormin Beeber – She ships in from Arlington where she was running evenly against cheaper claimers. While that isn’t the best sign, trainer Greg Weir has put 5 of 9 Canterbury starters in the money and this filly has the best set of morning works leading up to this race.
8 – Miss Dewali – She drops out of special weight competition to face lesser foes here. Her running style suggests that she’ll need a hot pace to close into. That could be a problem as none of these seem particularly keen on grabbing the early lead. If someone waltzes through slow early fraction, she’ll settle for the lesser pools.
7 – Sara Sidle – She shipped in from Arlington last out and ran a gritty third while being hung 3 wide throughout. She may set the pace with little company.

Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
9 – Castor Troy – He won the dirt half of the equation in the battle of the surfaces on Extreme Day, yet turf figures to be more his game. In his first start of the season at this distance he made up 16 ½ lengths late with a furious closing kick, yet still only finished 5th. He makes the all important 3rd start off the layoff tonight and should run a big one.
2 – Unreal General – The General has won two straight and hasn’t missed the board since March. In his last race he beat a very similar bunch. He’ll go favored with Bell aboard and could easily get the threepeat here.
6 – Image – This 9 year-old has been remarkable in his career in earning more than $400k, making him far and away the most accomplished animal here. Also, he’s 7 for 9 in the money on the Shakopee sod. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s running well and should get a share.

Race 3: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tugfire – On paper, he ran an ugly race last time. He essentially refused to leave the gate on time and spotted the field an insurmountable margin. That being said, after he found his feet, his was picking off horses one by one down the stretch, going from last a the top of the stretch to 5th, making up 8 lengths in the process. An on time departure could definitely put this one on top. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, which would be very nice.
1 – Blue by Your – He drops out of special weight competition to face claimers after showing speed and fading last time out. He’s improved in each effort and further improvement would earn him a check in here.
4 – Jestintime – He’s shown good speed while routing in he last three effort, but just couldn’t sustain that speed in the stretch. The cutback to 5 ½ furlongs should suit him well. The troubling point is the 0 for 9 career record, but take comfort in the 4 times he has hit the board, if not in the top spot.

Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Just Josh’n – I’m no fan of 0 for 19 maidens, but this might finally be graduation day. He appears to be the likely pace setter as no one else has shown much speed. Paul Nolan stays in the irons, where he has put this one in second twice while the glorified exercise riders that have ridden him in between haven’t done him any favors. He led late in his last, and may lead to the wire here.
7 – Just a Cut Above – If you play the above, fear this one late. He is the field’s best closer and will be charging down the stretch. However, I don’t know if there is enough speed to get a hot enough pace for this one to close into. He’ll give you a thrill, but may not win.
2 – Venus Fly Trap – He hasn’t shown much in four career efforts, but he’s as likely as anyone else here. With Houghton calling the shots, it’s possible, but not likely.

Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Hunter’s Monarch – This race has a ton of early speed which should set it up nicely for this gelding to fly past them all late. He’s not a deep closer and Houghton should keep him just a couple lengths off the lead and fire down the stretch.
6 – Born Running – Of the pace setters, this one appears to have the best stamina. The effort he gave two back in wiring a field around two turns bodes well for a chance to wire this bunch around just one turn. Bell takes the mount and will use this one’s speed wisely.
2 – Zoombyu – This one has one speed: fast. He’ll break the gate and sprint until he’s tired. He make the third start off the layoff and could give these all they can handle.

Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Katie O’Ready – She ran into a monster in Silver Trippi last time out, yet still held 4th. Prior to that, she had three 2nds and a first. This bunch isn’t much softer, but there’s no monster in here either. She is 7 of 8 in the money at Canterbury, too.
6 – Affection – She’s been favored in every career start and has rewarded her backers by never missing the money, though she has only 1 career win for her favoritism. She could pop the gate and never look back, but the price is going to be awfully short.
1 – Kokopelli Trail – With all the speed in here, this is the closest thing I can find to a closer. She won’t unleash a furious late run, but she won’t be leg-weary either, which may be enough to move up past the tired ones.

Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Fancy Gold – There is a ton of early speed here, including this one. The conventional wisdom would be to find a closer, and we will, but I think this one can win here. She’s a mare facing the boys and has been ultra-consistent all season and sports an impressive workout tab leading up to this race. I’m happy to take this mare that hasn’t missed the board since 2005.
6 – Wicked Pancho – Here is the field’s best closer and he should benefit from the projected hot pace. Morales has been riding well lately and may add another victory to the tally here.
5 – Taco Don – He exits a monster effort when winning his second race of the season in the last. Normally, he would be the speed of the speed here, but Runnin’ the River is a monster pace horse which could grind the Taco into the ground. There’s plenty to like here, but I find cause for concern. If the 2 horse scratches, this one is more playable.

Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Grandif – This filly is the only animal that has shown any talent. This field is littered with ladies that haven’t finished any closer to the wire than 20 lengths. This one will be heavily favored and barring something totally bizarre, she should cruise to victory.
1A – Trinstar’s Quest – She’s 0 for 13 and hasn’t run since November. That should tell you just about everything you need to know about this field. Trainer Jim Warvell has won with 33% of his starters this meet, so I’ll take him seriously here.
7 – So Elegant – Every other animal here has proven that they can’t win. This one has yet to taste defeat in making her first start tonight. The works are inconsistent at best, though the July 28 drill suggests ability. Although trainer David Applebee hasn’t won this year, he has put 12 of 22 starters in the money. A share is a definite possibility.

Race 9: 8,700 Allowance, 330 Yards
1A – Primero Vaquero – The sorrel gelding has been really, really good this season. I don’t envision him losing here. You also get Mr. Special Colors, which almost isn’t fair.
3 – Trevors Easy Tipper – Last season’s horse of the year finally broke through two back at 350 yards. This is a similar heat and it’s not out of the question.
5 – Callies Corona – This 6 year-old has also been running quite well. I’m pounding chalk here, but there isn’t much hope for the other runners.

Minnesota Festival of Champions

2007-08-19T05:34:00.001-07:00

Well, today is the richest day of the year for Minnesota bred horses. Canterbury has assembled an 11 race card with more than $400,000 in purse money. Lately, I've been talking about the short fields and there hasn't been much value to be found. Today's card is chock full of wagering interests, with all but one race having 8 entrants or more. There was a ton to be excited about. Then, the floods came...After a summer so devoid of rain that the Minnesota state bird, the mosquito, failed to arrive. It rained all day yesterday and it is projected throughout today as well. The Canterbury grounds crew does a fine job, but the racing surface today is going to extremely sloppy, turf racing is out of the question and there will be an abundance of scratches. I was pretty pumped to give a full blown preview of the Festival, but this is just a total buzzkill. So, since there is so much uncertainty, I can't in good faith convince myself that I have any opinions of value on today's card. Below are a few animals that could make some noise in the slop, but don't consider these gospel.

Race 3: Minnesota Distaff Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
1 - Saveeta - She's been awful this season and doesn't belong here at all. that said, look what happened the last time she ran in the slop. She won by 2 at 17-1 with then apprentice rider Tanner Riggs aboard. She draws apprentice Jenna Joubert today.

Race 4: Northern Lights Debutante 6 Furlongs
8 - Pretty as a Smile - She shows great slop breeding and broke her maiden on an off track by 8 lengths. The number 7 horse will be prohibititively favored here.

Race 5: Northern Lights Futurity 6 Furlongs
8 - Wild Shifter - He has the best wet breeding in the field and will be guided by Seth Martinez.
1 - I the Jury - This horse makes quite the presence in the paddock. He's huge. That extra height might keep the mud out of his face a bit.

Race 6: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
11 - Silk Selena - Her best career speed figure was earned in the mud last time out. She's improving and doesn't seem to mind the footing. I'm afraid she may go favored with this off the turf, though.

Race 7: Minnesota Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
3 - Gold Mace - He shows a perfect 3 for 3 record in the money when it's wet. He ran a quality third in his last race, too.

Race 8: Minnesota Turf Championship 1 Mile
4 - Bisquik - He found himself last time out and hits the board half the time in the mud, including running a career best speed figure on this type of footing.

Race 9: Minnesota Distaff Classic Championship 1 1/16 Miles
5 - Nishani - She's won both of her career starts in mud and should set the pace. Early pace in the mud is always welcomed.

Race 11: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
5 - Tez Taran - 4 for 4 in the money in the slop and he draws Houghton.

TGIF

2007-08-17T14:24:00.000-07:00

It's Friday and the fields are pretty slim again, including a couple of 6 interest fields. Oh well, the beers are still two bucks. The picks are below. I'll be back Sunday with a full Festival of Champions preview.

Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
1 – Oriental Tara – She fared well in the mud last time out, but clearly prefers better footing. She’ll get it tonight and should be the one to beat.
2 – Candlelight Dance – This filly makes her third start off the layoff tonight and figures to be quite involved here. She started poorly in her last, but rallied to make up a ton of ground to secure the show in the last. If the speed (above and below) backs up, this one will make them pay.
3 – Dance for a Buck – She gave a monster effort breaking her maiden last out. She should set the fractions and if she doesn’t get early company, she’s long gone.

Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He had all sorts of trouble down the stretch last out, yet still got up by neck at the wire. From a talent perspective, he’s better than these and a clean trip will prove that.
5 – Ghazarino – This gelding keeps improving with every start this season and has been impressive with his two starts on the lawn. There isn’t a ton of pace in here and that could leave him alone on the lead which could be a problem for the closers.
6 – O.G. Hunter – He was making up some ground in his first turf try, but was shut off badly around the 1/16 pole. Garcia takes over for Butler and should be able to navigate this one into the money.

Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 1/16, Turf
5 – Twisting Road – He ships in from Arlington where he ran fairly against a better bunch. This is a much softer spot which should get him some time with the track photographer.
3 – Mr. Miyagi – Truthfully, he really doesn’t fit here, but trainer Bryan Porter has put 19 of 24 starters in the money this season. Plus, there isn’t much pace in hear which may leave him as the lone speed. He should be a fair price and is worth a speculation.
1 – El Indy – He went favored last out when he shipped in from Arlington. He had a rough start and had nothing left to rally into a dull pace. He breaks from the rail and should get a clean start. If so, he’s definitely good enough to best these.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Tahkodha Bill – Okay, work with me on this one. His first start was a flop. He showed no speed, trailed, started to gain, was bumped and gave up. Fine, that was career start number 1. The facts are, he was working well heading into that debut and no doubt learned a ton. He gets a shot of Lasix tonight which should help as well. Anne Von Rosen is too good of a jockey to only have 5 victories this season. He’ll offer value and has a shot to make some real noise.
5 – Somerset Image – By comparison, this one had a terrific debut. Morales gave him a great ride and he made up some ground late, but got interested too late. I think he’ll be more keen to run this time and figures to go favored.
1/1A – Shoe Shoe Shoe/Chadder – Derek Bell will ride one of these two for Mac Robertson. When those two pair up this season, they are winning at an unheard of 47%. Watch the changes board to find where Bell lands and expect that one to make some noise.

Race 5: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile
2 – Autobeacat – He continues to alternate turf and dirt start this season with varying success. He last two dirt trips at one mile have earned him a win and place. Last time on dirt he missed by a ½ length to a good horse dropping out of allowance races. I don’t think that happens here…
4 – Dynamite Will – …unless this class dropping gelding repeats his last effort on the dirt. It came at this very level when he fell ¾ of a length behind a very good horse in El Inmigrante. Nolan gets the call for Jamie Ness which makes this one dangerous.
5 – Thong View – He ran a good one last out when beating a similar bunch. He should sit just behind the above pair and make a solid run in the stretch.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Ragweed – There is a ton of early speed in this race so I need to find a closer. This one fits the bill. He made up 14 lengths last time out when finishing third. Expect similar ground to be made up here with a win not out of the question.
1 – Come and Play – This one will also be charging late for Dean Butler. He’ll be closer throughout and will get first crack at the tiring pace, then he’ll have to hold off the above.
6 – Stevens Sword – He was the last of the pace to give way in his last race and it should be much the same here. If any of the early sprinters are going to hold on for a share, it will be this one with speed maestro Jesse Garcia aboard.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Keep It – After struggling in the allowance ranks early in the season, he seems to have found his sweet spot against 15,000 claimers. He’s better than most of these and gets the lethal Bell/Robertson combo behind him. It should be photo time.
4 – Stormy Half – This gelding won the first race I ever saw at Canterbury. As much as I would like to play nostalgia here, I can’t. He’ll be close and should get a share, though.
7 – Dezibelle’s Cat – The Cat is back after a few dull efforts. He won in a very sharp performance last time out and looks to be part of a contested pace here. If he repeats her last, he’s long gone.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Officer Big Man – This colt ships in from Churchill Downs where he was facing much tougher foes. He didn’t show a lot there, but the class relief alone may be enough for him to break through against this bunch.
2 – Maduro – He’s been knocking on the door all season, but just can’t get over the hump. He could win here, but I believe his runner up status is more of a trend than a fluke.
5 – Pine Siren – He takes the drop out of the special weight division to face claimers for the first time this season. He’s tried the turf without success lately and switches back to the dirt and sprints again. Sure, he’s a bit of an outsider, but he could add some juice to your exotics.

Gettin' Skinny

2007-08-16T13:02:00.000-07:00

The fields are really beginning to thin out as horses ship to Oklahoma City to run for slot-inflated purses. I'll talk more about this at a different time. Simply, the economics of the horse racing industry mandate that owners take their horses to where the money is. Right now, Canterbury just can't offer the same purses. Anyway, enough soapbox for tonight. Here are the picks.

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
6 – Whatashotzie – A couple animals in this race ran into a monster last time out in Esperamos. He crushed that field by 12 and change and came back last weekend to beat allowance foes quite easily. This guy was second to that one, completing the 5 ½ furlongs in about 1:05 and 2/5 seconds. That time is good enough to win at this level. He’s the pick.
7 – Rapid Jack – He ran another length behind the above and I foresee a similar ending here. Either could win, but this one has never been closer than 4 lengths back of the winner at the wire. Expect a minor share.
5 – Texas Rose – For the show I’ll take this first timer that has shown a decent set of workouts. I’m no thrilled about the 1 for 42 jockey or the 0 for 20 trainer, but they may be due to break through with this one at a fair price.

Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Friendly Soul – I can’t trust the favorite here (see below) so I’ll give this one a shot. She’s making her first career start for Bernell Rhone and son-in-law Dean Butler and has shown steadily improving 4 furlong morning works. She’s ready for this and will give the field everything it can handle.
5 – Dette’s Dream – Here’s your prohibitive favorite. She’s finished second in three straight after leading into deep stretch in all. My main concern was how easily Danube’s Hawk moved past her last time. The Hawk was unable to finish at 3 ½ furlongs, let alone 5 ½. Maybe she really took a step forward…or this one just can’t win. Either way, I can’t trust her to win, but she’ll get some money.
3 – Digi’s Luck – This filly can’t catch a break. She hopped at the start in her first effort and was bumped last time. She’s run fairly despite the bad starts. A clean start gives her a shot a prize.

Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Graceful Touch – She’s going to need an honest pace to set up her late kick and I think she’ll get it. Martinez has gone cold since the split from Mac’s barn, but this looks like a fair spot to get back on track.
6 – Elegant Star – It’s interesting to note that Nolan climbs aboard here after riding the 2 horse in each of her previous local turf tries. This one figures to make the first run at the pace setters around the turn and then brace for the late charging marker above.
4 – Our Lucky Draw – This animal holds the key to the race. She’s shown versatility in that she can sit just off the pace or close from far off of it. Either way, I think Morales can guide this mare to at least a small share.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Squeezable – She combined with 31-1 outsider Jane’s Gold to blow up the tote board when finishing second at 10-1 in her debut. There doesn’t appear to be anyone to contest the early fractions with her. If she gets to call the shots, she gets pictures taken.
3 – Jayana – She just put in a solid 4 furlong work and looks like she might have some talent. With babies, a little hint of ability is all it takes.
1A – Rundanya – She ran a solid effort last time when finishing an even 4th behind the top choice and a couple others. A similar effort against this bunch will put her in the money with a top prize not out of the question.

Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Vasant – This one is purely a hunch. The six year-old gelding is 10 for 21 in the money on the local dirt and has run his best career races at 6 furlongs. He has one awful effort this season as he’s been slow to come around. If we see the Vasant of old, he’ll get some money, if he’s just an old Vasant, there isn’t much to get excited about.
6 – My Mega Man – This one just came back from an 18 month vacation and broke well before fading. The second trip off the bench should be an improvement. One thing is certain, the price will be more than fair.
3 – Chorus Lion – He ran a proud third at 49-1 last time in his first trip since October. If he matches that effort here, he’s a winner.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Rose Fever – This race appears to be the first good betting race of the night with ten fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. This mare drops out of the allowance ranks and has all the looks of a winner against these.
7 – Conquistaprofit – This one is all about patterns. In June, she put in a sharp 3 furlong work in 35 flat and won at 9-1 while setting the pace. Fast forward to August and she just put in a 3 furlong work in 35 flat. Repeat?
1 – Jovial Angel – She’s been really sharp this season having finished no worse than 4th. She’ll be the inside speed and may never look back if she’s leading at the turn.

Race 7: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
8 – Strongwilled Stuka – She ran very well last out, but missed near the end. She was clearly better than the rest of the field that day and faces many of those same foes here. Although the distance could be questionable, she’s 10 for 20 in the Canterbury money and figures tough to beat.
6 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare likes to come from off the pace and should relish the return to routing. She should be passing the ladies late in search of some cash.
4 – Close Clearance – She showed nothing on an off track last time, but has shown some ability when going this route of distance. She’s not out of the question if she can round back into the form she showed last fall.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Hurry’s Fighter – Big Jake and I have been picking this beast all season. It’s probably time to throw in the towel and look elsewhere, but I’ll give him one last shot. He appears to tower over most of these. If he can’t win here, he likely never will.
9 – Somerset Call – If you don’t trust the above, this is your animal. In fact, I’d expect him to go favored here after missing by just a head in his last. He seems to be on the improve lately and would be no surprise here.
6 – Shady Ghazi – This guy has shown some speed before fading in the past. Last time out, Jamie Ness sent him around two turns in an effort build some stamina. That should help him here. He’ll certainly need to improve off of a few lackluster efforts, but he could add some spice to the tri.

Race 9: 5,800 Maiden, 350 Yards
2 – Marlboro Express – She’s run 2nd twice in a row. Tonight should be graduation time.
4 – Dashing Tipper – He’s had a couple good efforts, but has yet to break through. He’ll have to leap forward, but he has the talent.
6 – Chics Go Wild – She drops down the class ladder to a spot where she finished 3rd two back. Plus, I like the outside horses in dashes because there is less likelihood of getting in trouble at the start.

Graduation Day

2007-08-09T11:36:00.000-07:00

Alright, I know that graduation day is typically in the spring, but half of tonight's thoroughbred races are for maidens. So, it's definitely graduation day at Canterbury Park tonight. No pick 6 carryover to shoot for tonight and the fields are kind of light, but there are plenty of reasons to play Canterbury tonight, including a pretty challenging pick 4 sequence. The picks are below. See you at the track!

Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Lunarco – This gelding has hit the board in 4 of his 5 starts this season. His only miss came one a sprint. Routing is definitely his game and he appears to have found a softer spot than what he’s been facing. Last time out he rallied for second, but was beaten 12 lengths by a very good speed horse in Gospodin. He’s on his game right now and should be in the mix late.
2 – Isaiah – He exits the same race as above and fell just a part of a length behind him. He hits the board at a better than 50% at this distance. If he can show some of the early speed he’s shown in the past, he may get an easy early lead and be tough to pass.
3 – Squall Line – The more I look at this heat, the more apparent it is that there is next to no early speed here. The above hasn’t shown early speed in nearly a year so I won’t be surprised to see him trailing early. Of the rest, this guy seems most likely to take the early lead. Lone speed is always dangerous. Butler is aboard as well, which is an added bonus.

Race 2: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Causing Grief – This one looks prohibitive on paper. The speed figures are 10 points clear of the next horse and the workout tab is rock solid. Nolan takes the mount, too. He’ll be charging late and will be tough to fend off.
5 – Jestintime – This will be your early pace setter. He just missed against softer company and faces a much tougher field here. That said, he’s sharp, and you can do a lot worse than taking a horse that is running well regardless of the company.
7 – Tricky Titan – As you know, I’ve been picking Houghton mounts since he showed up because he’s new this circuit and would offer value until the locals caught on that he was a really good rider. Well, I’m afraid the secret it out. Dude won 7 races last week. Anyway, this colt has done nothing but sprint in his career, but is bred for two turns. He’s 4-1 on the morning line, which is probably a fair price. Also, I don’t trust Lowell Dean.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
7 – Byefornow – This filly has run second in each of her last three tries on the lawn. Frankly, the horses that beat her are pretty decent animals. She’ll have company on the lead and may be in for another heartbreaker, but she’s my pick.
4 – You Are – She ran a sharp on while on the lead in June at Arlington. She has since moved to Shakopee where she has been training like a champion. The company here is a lot softer and if she can sit off the pace here, she’ll have a really good shot.
8 – Sara Sidle – CSI fans, this is your hunch bet of the evening. She’s been running poorly at Arlington, but a return to the turf will be a welcomed change. She’s a bit of an outsider on paper, but Houghton and Robertson call the shots here, making this filly quite live.

Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Lucky Libby – If you are playing tonight’s pick 6, single this one and move on. This is one of the ugliest fields of the season and this filly should win handily. There are very few threats to her.
6 – Green Eyed Girl – She hasn’t run since last June on the California Fair circuit at Stockton. She’s been working well and has shown some good speed in the past. It’s a tall order to beat the top choice, but a minor share is well within reach.
1 – This Is My Case – Much of this field has proven that they can’t win. This one hasn’t run yet and has shown a hint of ability in the mornings. That may be enough to get some prize money in this affair.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Turtle Mountain – Alright, the third time is the charm with this one. I’ve picked him for a minor share his last two starts while questioning the insistence on routing. The connections cut the Turtle back to sprinting where he will be tough to beat here.
4 – Coal Fire – He somehow won in allowance company three back when the speed all stopped. He fits better against claimers like this bunch. If the pace gets lazy, Martinez should have this one positioned to swoop right by.
5 – Red Spider – Like the Turtle, this one should appreciate the cut back from routing as well. He’s shown good speed, but tends to falter late. The routing no doubt built some stamina which should give him the ability to carry his good early speed farther.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Captain Canaveral – This gelding beat a group of allowance runners three back in a gritty effort at 9-1. He’s been drifting down the class ladder since when missing badly against higher claimers. This is a contentious spot, but he’s run in the money in 75% of his starts on the Canterbury dirt. He’ll have to improve off his last, but there’s a chance.
6 – He’s Got Class – This guy ran into a buzz saw in the form of Royalnregal Dream last time out. He was clearly second in that race and should go favored here. He’ll be tough to beat, but at short odds, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
7 – Lookatme Afleet – He threw an absolute clunker in the slop last time and continues to drop down the class ladder. If he returns to anything resembling the form he showed in Tampa, he’ll crush these. Short of a complete turnaround, though, he’ll be settling for a minor award here. The Ness/Houghton pairing is winning at a 42% clip this season, too.

Race 7: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Audiahvo – This is a tough race to call, but I’ll take a chance with this late running colt. I’ve watched him grow up at Canterbury and he always gives a fair effort. He’s 11 for 18 in the money and there seems to be plenty of speed to set up his late kick. He’s 10-1 on the morning line. If that is available, I’ll either be homeless or rich tomorrow.
6 – Willy Wompus – This gelding will appreciate moving into a race against fellow Minnesotans here. His last effort was fair, but he couldn’t stay close to the early lead and lost interest. He figures to stalk a pretty fair pace, and will have the first chance to pounce.
7 – Bay Talk – Marvin Johnson’s horses tend to run their best races near the end of the season. Sadly, closing day is not too far away at the moment. His running style should place him right beside Willy Wompus as the travel down the back stretch. If he can run with that one, he’ll get a prize.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
7 – Island Doc – He had a rough trip on a wet track last time out, but if you forgive that effort, he looks pretty competitive. Derek Bell lands on this Marv Johnson trainee here. The last time Bell rode this one, he only missed by a ½ length. I think they flip the script this time.
4 – Pardon the Deuce – This one is the big closer of the field. He’s made up considerable ground late in each of his last three efforts. There seems to be enough speed and fade types in here to set up a really nice trip for this guy. If the pace stops, he’ll capitalize.
1 – Ezn Thru – He was off slowly and didn’t factor in his debut last time out. Trainer Tim Padilla wins with 27% of runners making their second start and 23% of maiden claimers. Morales takes over for the apprentice jockey, and the morning works show some talent. I’m more than willing to forgive that dull first effort for a chance to score at a price here.

Race 9: 7,300 Allowance, 350 Yards
5 – Bold Maureen – She’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money at Canterbury this season. Winner.
1 – Hyla – She just missed in her last against similar. She should be there at the end tonight.
8 – Photos Dont Fade – Ironically, she faded late in her last. Still, the outside post will help.

Claiming Crown Day

2007-08-03T23:10:00.000-07:00

Last year, Claiming Crown day gave Canterbury it's second largest crowd of the season. I highly doubt that will happen again this year since the program will be run at Ellis Park in Henderson, Kentucky today. I'm a big fan of Ellis Park since it is clearly the Ringo Starr of Kentucky racetracks. Seriously, Keeneland and Churchill are clearly John and Paul with Turfway playing the role of George. I kid, but I'm a huge fan of the Ellis Park 4% takeout pick 4. It may be the best value in horseplaying today. Anyway, we've got a slate of 8 relatively unspectacular claiming and maiden contests wrapped around a pretty solid renewal of the John Bullit stakes this afternoon/evening. The picks are below. Good luck!

Race 1: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – C.J. Blarg – This one drops in against claimers for the first time this season and appears formidable. He hasn’t run poorly, but just didn’t fit against those. This spot is very conducive to getting a diploma. The Bell/Robertson tandem certainly doesn’t hurt, either.
3 – Luna Del Gato – This one also drops in from the special weight division except he hasn’t shown much in his previous 8 tries. That said, he’s been working like a superstar and could surprise at a decent price.
5 – Mountain Quest – We beat him in his last effort with Singitagaingeorge. He was favored then, but won’t be here. He’ll be in the mix.

Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Booster – The top three finishers from a race identical to this return for round 2 in this one. Booster set a solid pace last time, but was caught late. I don’t think he’ll make that mistake again.
4 – Sheba’s Charm – He exits a race where Pouco Moleque positively crushed an overmatched bunch. He ran an honest second around two turns in that race. He certainly fits here.
5 – Bertando’s Victory – This field is so evenly matched that you might be better off using a dartboard. Any of these could win and be no surprise. Bertando’s Victory is the only entrant that is dropping in class having faced 15,000 claimers in his last. That may be all the edge he needs to separate himself in a hotly contested affair.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Barfly Zipper – Trainer Bruce Riecken calls on Jenna Joubert to take the mount in this baby girl battle. This one ran a solid second behind a winner who did the job in 59 and 1/5 seconds. That experience makes her the one to beat.
6 – Allthefrills – This debutante gets Bell for her maiden voyage and has been working impressively in the mornings. If she can carry that form into the afternoon, she may win.
7 – Oh Baby Doll – She raced in tight quarters last out, but was only beaten by 3 ¾ lengths. A cleaner trip here gives here a very good shot at victory.

Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Maduro – It’s finally diploma time for this guy. He’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money on the season at Canterbury and he has all the look of the winner here. It’s not the easiest spot, but he’s right there.
6 – Supernovace – This one will likely go favored. He drops from special weights to claimers for Bell and Robertson. He has also run decently when finishing second and third in his only tries on this track. He’ll be there in the end, but offers no value.
3 – Man of Men – I personally thought he was going to graduate in each of his three most recent efforts, but he faltered. He should appreciate the cut back to sprinting after routing three straight times. He’ll likely be the one that the above duo will need to run down in the stretch and deserves a look.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
9 – Shattered Dreams – Houghton gets the call and draws a good stalking post. He should sit a couple of lengths back and fire around the turn. This filly appears the best of this bunch.
1A – Oriental Tara – She’s been running well against this type of group and will likely find herself on or close to the lead here. You also get the 1 Diverse Curse as a bonus.
4 – Sweet Blarney – She drops in class and goes turf to dirt. A clean trip equals a prize.

Race 6: 45,000 John Bullit Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
6 – Prospective Kiss – There are many possibilities in the John Bullit. This gelding should benefit from a projected pace duel between Honour Colony and Sir Swervalot. If those two back up, he’ll be ready to capitalize and get the money.
4 – Honour Colony – The winning mare in the Lady Canterbury three weeks ago returns to take on the boys here. As mentioned above, she projects to battle through hot early fractions, but she’s run some good races lately and has a bullet work leading up to this effort. She should hold on for a share, if not the lion’s share.
2 – On Safari – Here is a filly that figures to capitalize on the pace scenario. She rallied bravely at 25-1 to place in the Lady Canterbury. I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned the tables on the above here.

Race 7: 25,000 Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Turf
3 – Did – Ignore his third place effort at Horsemen’s Park last time and focus on his perfect 3 for 3 record at this distance on the lawn. He’s not untouchable, but figures prominently here.
7 – Timetobook – He’s taken on quarterhorses in both of his last efforts and figures to be the best early speed. In a turf sprint, sometimes running down a quick gate horse is an awfully tall order. He’ll give you a thrill, that is certain.
2 – Castles in the Sky – This Thad Keller entrant ships in from Iowa to try the sod. He’s been running well and Keller only ships if he thinks he can win as evidenced by his 27% winning percentage at Canterbury. Don’t overlook him.

Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Silk Selena – This is one of the saddest bunches of allowance runners I’ve seen in quite some time. This is essentially a claiming race with an inflated purse. Anyway, this girl didn’t like routing last time out, but has run decently in sprints this season. She’s the best option I can find here.
3 – Milly Wompus – She just missed against claimers in her last and draws Houghton for this one. She doesn’t fit on class, but she’s razor sharp, which may be all that is needed to capture the prize in this one.
5 – Minn E Scat – She ran poorly against open company in her last and drops in against fellow Minnesotans here. She’s 2 for 3 in the money in her career and shows at least a modicum of talent. She draws Bell for Gary Sherer’s barn that has put better than 50% of his runners in the money this season.

Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1 – Sparkling Endeavor – This race appears to be awfully light on early speed, which could set this one up for a comfortable trip while leading the way. The threat is that one of the many closers in this field runs her down late. Jockey Scott Stevens is quite adept at getting a horse to relax, so I expect him to reserve this one through slow fractions and discourage all challenges in the stretch. The class drop from the allowance ranks helps, too.
7 – Country Child – This one also drops from an allowance race and made up a ton of ground late. Of the closers in here, she appears to be the biggest threat to the inside marker.
3 – Mill Time – Of course, it’s always possible that a stalking type might win this contest. If so, this is the one with the best show. She has the tactical speed to rate a couple lengths behind the pace, but hasn’t really shown the killer instinct I’d like to see late. Still, Houghton will put her in a good spot. The only question will be if she’s good enough or not.

Friday picks

2007-08-03T11:14:00.000-07:00

Last night's picks were mixed with some success. There were a few oddball winners last night, most notably Jane's Gold at 30-1. Let see what we can do tonight...

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Roses ‘n Rainbows – She ran a brave one at 19-1 while dueling for the lead and placed in her last. The winner that night was in runaway fashion and the show horse has also returned to win, which lends credibility to the effort as she steps back into among special weight company again. The bullet she fired last Saturday morning adds to the intrigue.
7 – Affection – This filly is a quandary. She’s gone favored and failed in all five career starts, yet still finished in the money in every effort. She’ll be the shortest price on the board again, but I just can’t trust her at skinny odds. Houghton takes the mount, but I’ll try to beat her. She’ll finish in the money and likely kill any value in the exacta/trifecta pools, too.
1 – Lovely Kaelyn – This animal returns to sprinting on the dirt after unsuccessfully routing on the sod a couple times. The pedigree says she’s like the distance, but her spring form at Calder suggests not. This is a much softer bunch than those and she’d be no surprise.

Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
2 – Claires Connection – He broke poorly in his last, but beat allowance foes under the wire two back, but was dq’d to 2nd. He is 8 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury turf, but has no victories. He’ll likely be a skinny price, but he appears most likely.
3 – Ghazarino – He ran the best race of his career in his first try on the grass last out. He’ll have to improve to best this bunch, but it’s not out of the question.
7 – J T Kingfisher – Mac Robertson wheels this guy back just 7 days after breaking his maiden. He had some traffic trouble in that effort and had to alter course in mid stretch, but still got up for the money. That was a real character builder that should suit him well as he faces winners for the first time. Bell moves to the top choice, but Garcia is no slouch.

Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – Chasm – He had a nightmarish trip in his last effort, but was still only beaten by two lengths. He should recover fine from that disappointing effort and could offer an intriguing option in a pretty evenly matched field.
9 – El Indy – This gelding is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes champion Rags to Riches. He’s not in the same class as her, but he’s been running against much better opponents on the poly track at Arlington. He’ll likely go favored and should be tough.
6 – Dynamite Will – He broke from a wide post and gave a dull effort in his last, but beat a similar group before that. I’m not sure who will be guiding this one with Riggs on the shelf for a couple weeks, but this one should sit behind the pace setters and pounce coming out of the turn.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
7 – Touchmewithmagic – Seven baby Minnesota boys do battle in the first of back to back heats here. I’ll take the outside first timers with the top jockey. He shows a decent set of workouts and is as likely as any in here.
2 – Tez Sunaman – My favorite trainer Tammy Domenosky sends this one out for career start number two. The first one was brutal as he stumbled out of the gate and had to check in traffic. Forgive that effort and look at the competitive works that led up to it.
1 – Brilliant Baby – The cagey veteran of the field is making just his 3rd career start. He’s shown speed in both efforts before fading down the stretch. I’m not sure tonight will be any different, but this contest is wide open.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs,
1 – Sahan – Domenosky sends this one postward after he ran a great race when missing by just a neck. The final time in that race was a blistering 59 1/5 seconds. If Butler can get him to repeat that effort, he’ll find himself in the winner’s circle.
5 – The Real Story – This would be my top choice in the race, but I don’t know if the pace will be hot enough to set up his run and I think the above might just be too much for this field. He raced widely and closed ground in his last and if the above stops before the finish line, this will be the most likely beneficiary.
3 – B.B. Hill – He didn’t get a good start last time and was hung 4 wide throughout. A clean start and less circuitous trip make him a definite factor here.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Iwazascruffyboy – This is one of my favorite horses at Canterbury. Unfortunately, I’m not alone as he always gets plenty of support at the windows. He’s improved in each of his last three efforts and Nolan stays aboard. He’ll be favored, but be tough to beat.
2 – Dark Indulgence – I think the above and below may hook up on the lead and set up this guy’s late kick. Morales has the mount and I expect him to catch fire soon, perhaps here.
1 – Stevens Sword – This guy has either won or placed in each of his last five efforts. He should be part of the pace scenario with the top choice and Garcia knows how to handle horses on the lead. I think these two will duel and the first one to blink will have to settle for a minor share.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
3 – Royal Fox – I’m taking a bit of a shot here. From a speed figure perspective, he really doesn’t fit here. However, there is a large quantity of early speed in here and he is the only confirmed big closer in the field. Scotty Stevens is a patient jockey who will reserve this guy until he needs his big run late. If the speed backs up, this is your winner.
8 – Kitty Litter – In a race full of speed, he appears to be the speed of the speed. He ran well in his last, but encountered the class-dropping Keep It and was beat handily. The competition doesn’t feature anyone as classy as that animal which gives this one a chance to hold on at the end.
2 – Louis de Plus – He’s a bit of an enigma as he drops into the claiming ranks. He’s the morning line favorite, but there are plenty of question marks. He’ll likely sit just behind the hot pace and have the first crack at passing them, but then he’ll have to hold off the closers.

Race 8: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Lady Eloquence – The writing on the wall suggests a win here. Bell and Robertson are the hottest connections at the track, and they drop the filly in class and ship in from Arlington. Mac spots his horses well and this one should get the money.
2 – Lil Makena – Trainer Bryan Porter is winning with 32% of his starters. I passed on both of his entrants in earlier races and this one appears the most likely of his runners. That said, she’s still an outsider in this group, but could surprise. She’ll offer a square price.
4 – Ontherockswithsalt – This gray filly may be able to sneak away on the lead with Garcia. If that happens, they may be tough to get by late.

Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
10 – Rockin E C and D C – This filly is named for her owners and breeders, Edna and Dale Cheloha. Dale trains, too. Anyway, the workout pattern here is rock solid. I’m surprised she isn’t in a special weight contest. She’s the winner if ready.
5 – Mill City – She drops in from special weight company and should go favored. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
12 – U Needa Rita – This filly has shown absolutely nothing in her 9 career starts, but I think the sprint/route/sprint pattern bodes well for a filly that has shown some speed on occasion and faded. She’ll give you a square price – that much is certain.

The day after

2007-08-02T12:02:00.000-07:00

Yesterday's bridge collapse has me a bit dispassionate about posting something as frivolous as picks on horse races. That said, it is important to move on after disaster. Here are the picks, if you feel the urge to play.

Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile
1 – Par Five in Two – All signs point toward this one here. He’ll definitely be favored and appears to be the lone speed in a field short of talented runners. Formidable.
6 – Fiddy Cents – If the above falters down the stretch again, this gelding will have the first chance to assume the lead. He’s been improving with each start over the local dirt and another step forward gets him the money.
2 – Turtle Mountain – I don’t really understand why the connections here insist on routing him. He was a competitive sprinter and I’m not sure that two turns is his game. That said, he gave a decent effort last out and was in contention until the closers shuffled him back to fourth. He’d be a surprise to many, but I think there’s a chance.

Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Tour Me Honey – This is a pretty wide open race, but the baby of the bunch looks most likely. There isn’t much early speed and she may find herself alone on the lead, which is always a good thing. Bell calls the shots and should have this one prominent throughout.
2 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare has given solid efforts this season, but can’t find the winner’s circle. She finds a softer bunch here, but the lack of speed may compromise her late run.
4 – Brigthen My Day – There is no sugar-coating it, this gray mare has been awful, losing by more than 20 lengths in 8 of her last 10 efforts. That being her history, she fits here if the price is square…and it will be. She isn’t the best bet, but is as likely as many others here.

Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Puff N Smoke – Smoke Glacken’s kids have been winning on this turf course this season and this filly figures prominently. She had a bad trip in her last, but ran first or second in her previous three efforts. She’ll be near the lead throughout and has a chance to last.
4 – Peakaboo Irish – She made up a ton of ground late in her last, which suggests she’ll take smartly to the extra furlong of this contest. She’s not exactly bred for the sod, but with her last effort and Butler aboard, she figures tough to beat.
6 – Graceful Touch – She also closed the gap behind the above in her last. Martinez stays aboard and stands a good chance of hitting the board with this chestnut filly.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Fancy for Ghazi – She won’t be the favorite, which makes her very playable here at a square price. She ran a solid race in last effort behind a runaway winner in Bump’ndazzle. This one actually finished the race in 1:00 and 3/5th seconds. That has been fast enough to win at this level. The pace here figures to be hot which may set this one up to collect the check. You also get the 1A Digi’s Luck as an added bonus for investing here.
4 – Dette’s Dream – This one will be the favorite. She missed by a nose when the above’s ½ sister caught her at the wire. I can’t fault you for betting this one as she seems most likely, but the price will be skinny.
5 – Playit – This girl will make her career debut tonight. She sports a fair workout tab leading up to her debut and could capitalize if the above falter.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Minnesota Mafia – This race features another group of Minnesota-bred baby girls. I’m going to take a shot with some first timers here. This one has had some very impressive workouts leading up to tonight, but no bullet workouts, which may present a little hidden value as she doesn’t jump off the page. Trainer Gary Sherer is winning with 29% of his runners on the meet and could earn some more cash here.
3 – Friendly Soul – This affair isn’t exactly full of talent, so I’ll continue picking debutantes. This girl also features a couple impressive workouts and gets the services of Dean Butler who has put 47% of his starters in the money. Expect at least a minor share.
6 – Bri Bri – I’ll say one thing about this filly, she’s consistent. She’s started four times in her lifetime and has run third in every one of them. If any of the experienced runners are going to hit the board, it will be this one.

Race 6: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Keep It – This guy was previously running against allowance company without much success. Leading trainer Mac Robertson dropped him into the claiming ranks and scored against a similar group in his race. There appears to be a ton of early speed here which should set up a nice stalking trip for this one to get the money again.
4 – Strum Bum – The Bum has grown up before my eyes this season. He has one speed – fast. He’ll break sharply and look for the lead right away and he’ll stay there until he gets tired. Last season, he’d stop about 200 yards from the finish and let others pass. This season he’s shown the ability to carry that speed farther. We’ll see if he’s all grown up tonight, as this is the toughest bunch he’s had to face yet.
7 – Ber Bear – This guy might be the x-factor tonight. She’s shown a propensity to want the lead which could be his demise, though he’s also shown a ton of heart. He drops a bit in class for Jamie Ness and T.D. Houghton and would be no surprise at the end.

Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
8 – Sir Tricky – He just ran a sharp second in the Blair’s Cove stakes and should get plenty of pace to set up his late kick. Value could be a problem.
5 – Lite Brigade – He led most of the way in his last effort before Bobadieu passed him late. He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight, but he’s shown a ton of heart and has finished first or second in 9 straight efforts.
1 – Trickyville Dew – This classy Minnesotan is 5 for 6 in the money at Canterbury and should be charging late. If the above and number 4 Runnin’ the River duel each other into the ground, this guy will be a chief beneficiary.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
5 – Hurry’s Fighter – This guy has been fighting for his first win all season, but continues to run into buzz saws. For example, Betting Ladd positively crushed in his last race while running second. This one finished the race in about 1:06, which has been good enough before. The foes are pretty frail which may get him the diploma.
1 – Saints Surrounded – On the surface this looks like a reach, but he has a good work over the surface and drops into a soft spot against Minnesota claimers after taking on an open special weight field in Chicago. He’ll be ignored and offer good value.
9 – Just Josh’n – He’s 0 for 17 on his career, which make him tough to back, but he’s run well lately. There isn’t much for talent here, so there’s a chance.

Race 9: 10,000 Claiming, 350 Yards
6 – Dans the Man – He runs very well at this distance factors prominently against these.
3 – Mr Special Colors – Ran behind a couple very nice one in Trevors Easy Tipper and Callies Corona in his last. Might be good enough here.
4 – Rs Kir Royale – She finished a ½ length behind the top choice in her last and could turn the tables tonight.

Jock Talk

2007-07-31T11:26:00.000-07:00

I’d like to take a moment today to present some thoughts on trends and statistics in the jockey’s room at Canterbury this season. There are only 21 race days left from what just a couple months ago was a full schedule of 68 racing days. With 47 days gone, I can conservatively estimate that I have seen, either live or recorded, about 95% of the races. Here are some statistical oddities and trends thus far this season.

Jockey Standings (through 7/29 below)

Rank Jockey Mounts Win Place Show Earnings Win % In the $ % Avg Earnings
1 Paul M. Nolan 275 55 43 47 $764,990 20.00% 52.73% 2,781.78
2 Derek C. Bell 216 54 33 25 $708,240 25.00% 51.85% 3,278.89
3 Seth B. Martinez 212 41 45 24 $650,264 19.34% 51.89% 3,067.28
4 Jesse Jimenez Garcia 189 32 36 22 $499,763 16.93% 47.62% 2,644.25
5 Juan G. Rivera 194 29 21 23 $427,465 14.95% 37.63% 2,203.43
6 Dean P. Butler 149 24 29 17 $370,840 16.11% 46.98% 2,488.86
7 Scott A. Stevens 175 24 18 27 $352,588 13.71% 39.43% 2,014.79
8 Tanner Riggs 211 19 34 27 $274,707 9.00% 37.91% 1,301.93
9 Nik G. Goodwin 174 16 19 22 $254,659 9.20% 32.76% 1,463.56
10 Dylan R. Williams 118 12 12 19 $180,238 10.17% 36.44% 1,527.44
11 Ry Eikleberry 114 9 13 18 $126,237 7.89% 35.09% 1,107.34
12 Alberto Pusac 135 9 8 19 $113,709 6.67% 26.67% 842.29
13 Lori Keith 45 9 4 12 $85,834 20.00% 55.56% 1,907.42
14 Adolfo A. Morales 98 8 12 12 $133,718 8.16% 32.65% 1,364.47
15 Martin Escobar 113 7 11 12 $171,992 6.19% 26.55% 1,522.05
16 Tho Nguyen 69 7 8 8 $97,911 10.14% 33.33% 1,419.00
17 Jake Olesiak 57 5 6 6 $70,112 8.77% 29.82% 1,230.04
18 Anne Von Rosen 68 5 5 8 $105,153 7.35% 26.47% 1,546.37
19 Keith Davis 110 4 7 9 $64,000 3.64% 18.18% 581.82
20 Michael G. Ziegler 58 4 3 8 $44,758 6.90% 25.86% 771.69

It should surprise no one to see last year’s leading jockey Paul Nolan and four time riding champ Derek Bell dueling for the lead here. On the surface, it is a bit surprising that Seth Martinez has fallen so far behind. Then again, when he and Mac Robertson had their falling out, most of Mac’s best horses went to Bell, so I guess it’s not that surprising.

Generally, you would expect the percentages of wins and running in the money to follow a similar pattern. For the most part, that pattern holds as you go down the standings, but a few jockeys stand out. Dean Butler wins his fair share of races, but puts an amazing 47% of his mounts in the money. Also, Lori Keith has only climbed aboard 45 steeds, but has won with 20% of them, which is better than everyone except Nolan and Bell and she owns the highest percentage of runners in the money with better than 55%. From now on, I’d consider every Butler and Keith mount live and they’d all be a must use in the superfecta for sure, if not the trifecta.

I’d also note the uncharacteristically poor showings by Adolfo Morales and Martin Escobar. Escobar historically wins at a 12-15% clip during his summers in Minnesota, but he has managed only 6% winners thus far. He’s had a rough first few months of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wakes up in August on some horses with some tall prices. Similarly, we are getting to point in the season where Adolfo Morales typically starts rattling off victories. I remember watching the races last August when Morales won something like nine races in a weekend. That may or may not happen again this year, but he’s another one that may pilot some prices home as the season winds down.

Lastly, how does Keith Davis continue to get mounts? He’s only hitting the board with 18% of them and has the lowest earnings per start among the top 20 jockeys. I’m not saying the guy can’t ride, I mean, he did totally dominate the ostrich race on Extreme Day, but stats don’t lie. Maybe he’s just in a slump. I don’t remember him riding at Canterbury before, so maybe he dominates Turf Paradise in the winter or something.

Some people swear by jockeys and even bet solely by them. I’m more of a trainer guy, but taking into account the jockey on your horse, and potentially the reason he/she is there, can give some hints about how the horse may run. I’m working on a more thorough look into jockey and trainer stats and hope to present those in the next week or so. In the mean time, look for Thursday’s picks sometime on Thursday afternoon.

Guys night out

2007-07-27T11:48:00.000-07:00

Friday's card at Canterbury is all about the boys, with six of the nine races posting no girls allowed signs. Thanks to last night's rain, the pick six carryover grew by 40% and now sits just above $7k. This is the point where more off track money starts to show up. Prior to now, we only had to beat the local money, which is largely made up of a few savvy individuals and a ton of casual players. Although it happened earlier this year, scooping the pick six isn't likely at this point.

Last night's picks were alright, though I deserve mulligans for the races washed off the grass. I did have the pick 4 and the race 6 and 7 trifecta, with the latter paying $214.90 for a dollar. Top picks won three races and were in the money in all but two. Fair, but could be better.

Tonight I will also take a look at the early pick four at Prairie Meadows. It's a 50 cent minimum wager starting on race two. Without further delay, here is tonight's analysis.

Race 1: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Bella Notte – This debutante enters the race with a solid work out tab in a field that appears short on talent. If the favorite proves mortal, this one stands to benefit.
5 – Somerset Wish – This filly is the logical favorite and is in a relatively soft spot. She lost last time to a promising filly named Sucara. Bell keeps the mount and appears tough.
1 – Alacazar – You could do worse than playing this filly on her second career start. She raced between horses in Iowa against open company before fading badly. She’s trained fairly on this track and drops into a statebred field. The rail won three consecutive races last night. If she gets a clean trip, she could be there in the end.

Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Zoombyu – I don’t recall what the field looked like on paper, but sending the one off at 12-1 should have been a felony. Despite starting his career at 4, this guy is now 2 for 3 in the money and will make his second trip off the layoff. Unless the firsters show speed, this one may be alone on the lead, too. 12-1 won’t be there, but 3-1 might be, and that would be just fine with me.
8 – Polished Britely – He was caught wide and lost a lot of ground last out which compromised his stalking trip. The pace scenario should favor his style, but he’ll likely be heavy chalk. Likely, but no value.
7 – Blue by Your – This first time starter put in a five furlong sizzler a week ago and looks to repeat or improve upon that today. The pedigree says this is his distance.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – J T Kingfisher – He went favored in his last, but failed to run down Cedarwood who was very sharp that evening. J T’s slow late gain suggests that he will relish the extra furlong in this affair and will be tough to beat.
3 – Smoke Baby – This one has failed while favored twice in a row, but this season we’ve seen ample evidence that Smoke Glacken’s kids like the Canterbury Lawn. Angel Smoke and With Smoke have both broken their maidens on this course this season and their brother may not be far behind. He’ll make a late run, but Riggs has to get him interested sooner than Martinez has.
1 – Powerful Pepper – He got bumped and faded to eighth in his last, but if you forgive that effort and factor in the bullet on July 17, this guy figures prominently.

Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – Chaska – This event features the first, third and fourth finishers of the Blair’s Cove Stakes. Logic would suggest the winner of that is the one to beat. I disagree and I’ll take the show horse. Chaska has savored this lawn, running in the money in all four efforts over it, including a career best effort in his last. As a four year old, he may still be improving, which doesn’t bode well for the competition.
1 – Thrill of Victory – Horses that ship in from Iowa do so for one reason, and it isn’t for the purses…it’s to run on the grass. Trainer Thad Keller has sent 11 horses north this season and three have found victory and three more ran in the money. The turf breeding here is fair and he could offer a square price.
4 – Beau Named Sue – He was close in the Blair’s Cove, but didn’t have enough late. With a solid Sunday work, Butler should guide him to a better share of the purse tonight.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This is a wide open affair of 9 colts and geldings. I’ll go green here with this class dropper. He tried the turf in his last and showed next to nothing. The last time he sprinted, he got caught in a four-headed pace battle and faltered to fifth. He’s essentially moving from allowance company to 7,500 statebred claimers. It raises some questions, but he should be tough.
8 – Samislew – He figures to be part of the pace makeup, and has given sharp effort in his last two. He drops down a notch in the claiming ranks as well and stands a fair shot.
3 – Thirty Below Zero – There are a number of speed merchants here which may set up a nice stalking trip with Houghton aboard. He also drops a bit in class and wouldn’t be too big of a surprise.

Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
6 – Expect Colonial – This colt ships in from Lone Star and steps up in class. He fits from a speed figure perspective, too. Usually I don’t pay attention to who owns the horses because the trainer really calls the shots, but Balkrisna Sukharan is having one of the most statistically improbable seasons I’ve seen. He’s had 11 starters, 8 have one and another placed. He’s winning at a 73% clip! Ness calls the shots and wins 30% of his starters this season. He doesn’t jump off the page so there may be some value.
1 – Willy Wompus – He held gamely for second in his last out against statebreds. This is essentially a lateral move class-wise and Nolan and Ness pair up to give this one a shot.
3 – Tonys a Genius – This gelding has had quite meet. He won or placed in his first four starts before bouncing badly in his last effort two weeks ago. A return to his early season form gives him a victory by open lengths.

Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silver Trippi – I’m on the chalk in this one. This filly ran a very sharp second in her last after winning by 11 lengths to break her maiden. She’s sharp right now and will be tough to beat. Bell takes the irons for Mac Robertson. That duo is winning at a 42% rate.
3 – Holly in Summer – She stumbled coming out of the gate in the Frances Genter and never factored. She won in this exact spot two back. I’m not sure she’s good enough to win, but a small share is in the cards.
4 – Lady L – She also had trouble last out and was bumped early. She’s got a sizzling 4 furlong drill leading into this race and may step up for a piece with Houghton aboard.

Race 8: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Touchofreality – There is a ton of pace in this heat, but this one is certainly the class of the race. She’s never raced at this low of a level. She’s currently off form, but that may not matter against this motley bunch.
9 – Miss Tricky – The hot pace scenario here sets up this mare beautifully. She didn’t appreciate routing on the turf in her last but closed resolutely at this level and distance two back, but couldn’t catch Goldbrook who was alone on the lead that night. A contested pace may be all this one needs to score. Martinez should sit back and run late.
7 – Hard to Call – Of the speed merchants in this affair, this one appears to be the best suited to taking back a bit and stalking a hot pace. She’s made steady improvement with each race this year and if she can rate, she may fire off the turn and never look back.

Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Prima Dancer – She drops from special weight competition and sports the best speed figures. And best of all, she’s 12-1 on the morning line. What’s not to like? The 0 for 21.
9 – Rushford – She’s been improving and drops down the claiming ladder. Possible.
1 – Lilly Lady – Broke in air in her last and still ran second. A clean break means a slice.
Prairie Meadows Early Pick 4

Race 2: 26,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Shhh Real Quiet – This four year old son of Real Quiet is 0 for 19 on his career. He appears to have found a nice soft spot to finally get the diploma. Daddy would be proud.
8 – Rose’s Pride – He stumbled badly out of the gate and never factored when trying two turns. That may have served as a glorified workout. The extra stamina might give him a shot against pretty soft company.
4 – Sound of Peace – He’s been working well in the mornings leading up to his second career start. He’ll have to step forward, but it’s possible.

Race 3: 12,500 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1A – Apt to Thrill – This filly takes the plunge from special weights into claiming and looks tough. She ran a couple clunkers on the poly at Arlington and seemed to appreciate getting back to the dirt in her last. Big chance.
2 – Betyourpaycheck – This well-named filly also drops from specials and has been improving with each trip. Another step forward means graduation.
5 – Miss Sinner – She sat a great stalking trip last time and missed by a nose. She may be allowed to grab the early lead and coast to victory if she doesn’t get pressured.

Race 4: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Acreditado – The Brazilian is dropped down in the claiming ranks after winning handily in his last. I don’t truly understand it, but trainer Dick Clark spots his horses extremely well. Trust he’s doing what’s right.
7 – Sharkille O’Neal – This guy is a Prairie Meadows classic and always takes money at the windows. He too falls out of a higher claiming tag after a daylight victory. At 4 he’s likely still improving as he just ran a career best.
1 – Wallstreetgangster – He blew up the tote board in Shakopee two back after getting a good stalking trip. He ran fairly while wide here in his last. Look for improvement.

Race 5: 26,120 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Sammymae – This black beauty is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money with two W’s. Her form is impeccable right now and she moves up in class. There are a ton of positives to counter the wide post.
1 – Her Baby Blues – This girl closed sharply in her last effort. If the above slows down on the leads, this one will be right there to make her earn it.
4 – Sweetpike – She always gives an honest effort. If Birzer can get her involved early, her even running style might allow her to earn a share.

The ticket: 50 cent pick 4
Race 2: 1,4,8
Race 3: 1A
Race 4: 3,7
Race 5: 1,4,9
Cost: $9

Buck Night Picks

2007-07-26T09:58:00.000-07:00

We enter buck night tonight with over $5k in the pick 6 pool. Thank you Extreme Day. We've got a pretty decent nice race card tonight. Let's see what we kind of damage we can do tonight...

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Rapid Jack – This guy makes his second trip off the layoff and definitely figures in this race. He’s three for four in the money on the Canterbury dirt and if he improves off his tightener, he should be right there in the end.
1 – Whatashotzie – This race features a group of horses that haven’t run much at Canterbury. This gelding ships in from Arlington where he ran a solid second against claimers. He steps up in class and may get a good ride on the lead.
5 – Supernovace – This one went favored in his last, but ran into a monster effort by Kitty Litter. He’ll likely go favored here as well. He stands every right to win this, but he hasn’t shown the killer instinct, so I’ll try to beat him with the above pair.

Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – O.G. Hunter – He’s faltered at short odds a couple of times, but he definitely fits here. Two back he ran a very solid third at this distance. A similar effort puts him right in the mix…and maybe in the winner’s circle.
4 – Island Doc – This one is the logical favorite having just missed under these conditions in his last. However, he drifted out a bit in that effort, suggesting he was tired. Marvin Johnson sends him back after two weeks off. If he fires his best, he’ll win, but he’s vulnerable. He also lures T.D. Houghton into the saddle. I continue to believe we can make some money playing his horses as he’s still an unknown to the local players.
7 – Jestintime – He should appreciate a continued drop down the class ladder and figures to be part of a pace scenario that appears devoid of significant speed. If he doesn’t get too much pressure, he’ll hit the board.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
1 – Byefornow – This little lady has carried Jesse Garcia on the lead to the stretch in both previous efforts before being caught late. Contrary to its historical closer bias, speed has held well on the lawn this season. I’m not sure the extra distance helps any, but the early lead should be hers again…and Garcia knows how to handle such a situation.
5 – Casino Carol – If the above gets caught late again, it might be by the gray filly. She made up a ton of ground late in her last. Expect Houghton to sit back and fire big late.
7 – Union Camp – She ran third behind Byefornow in her last. She sat a good trip just off the pace, but didn’t have enough of a kick to get past the top two. Expect similar.

Race 4: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – V’ville Lady – This is the best bet of the night. She’s been scratched out of her last two entries when washed off the sod. She takes a drop into the claiming ranks and brings Martinez back into the irons. Formidable.
6 – Gracious Halo – This mare continues to improve this season and switches back to the Canterbury turf where she’s two for three in the money, despite not winning. She’ll be charging late and give you a thrill.
1 – Close Clearance – This lady has been off since October, but returns to a surface where she ran very well late last season. Jack McCartney finally broke through with victory one on the season on Friday. This one isn’t likely, but possible.

Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
1 – Dakota Hills – If the last race was the easiest to handicap, this is the toughest. All six of these animals are quite possible. I like the inside marker. Mac Robertson sent this guy around two turns two back to build some stamina. He just missed cutting back to his preferred distance in his last and could be tough. The jockey switch from Riggs to Bell is welcomed, too.
4 – Partisan Gold – There is a similar pattern here, except this one makes his first start after the stretch-out. He won on his last ride at 6 furlongs and would be no surprise.
5 – Senor Scat – Trainer Gary Sherer is winning at a ridiculous 31% clip this season, which means he’s been spotting his horses well. This is a contentious field, but the scat could be right there.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
3 – Oriental Tara – She’s only eligible for this race on a technicality…she was dq’d after her jockey accidentally hit a foe in the nose with the whip down the stretch, despite crossing the wire first. The field won’t get that lucky again.
1 – Rule Number One – She appears better suited to the lawn or sprinting on the dirt, but she takes a considerable class drop and her speed figures make her the one to beat. Dean Butler has quietly put 47% of his mounts in the money, too.
6 – Shattered Dreams – Trainer Jamie Ness has been working to get this one more involved early, including victoriously sprinting her in her last. A good start leaves her in contention throughout.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Struttinherstuff – She’s 7 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury dirt and looms tough to beat here. Garcia should sit just off the pace and take over late.
1 – Somerset Girl – This filly has shown some talent this season and has run in some pretty good company. A drop into the claiming ranks for the first time might be just what the doctor ordered for career win number two.
9 – Big Alibaba – She’s been improving lately and just missed at this level in her last. There is a bunch of early speed here which could set up her stalking trip.
11 – Stitznwolf – She’ll also be charging late and could add some juice to the superfecta.

Race 8: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile
2 – Silent Preacher – A contentious battle of maidens wraps up the pick 6. This one is 0 for 20 in his career, but in the money 50% of the time. He steps up in class after just missing against claimers twice in a row. He figures to get a good trip from post 2. Is tonight the night for him to finally graduate?
5 – Sahm Valentine – This one figures to go favored in the end. He gave a solid effort when running third in his last. Going two turns again should suit him fine.
6 – Lowell Dean – He shifts back into the special weight division after having a nightmarishly wide trip in his last. Bell climbs in the irons and should put this one into the mix early and often.

Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 300 yards
4 – Hyla – In the Q nightcap, I’ll take this filly. She just missed against 10,000 claimers last out and looks pretty tough.
3 – Mr de Quacker – This sorrel gelding could also take the prize. He drops out of the same race as the above where he was beaten by daylight. If he gets away cleanly, he could make life difficult for the field.
5 – Ground Candy – He’s been in the money in four straight and ran a career best last out. A hot horse is a good horse to play.

Going to Extremes

2007-07-25T12:22:00.001-07:00

To those of you that were able to attend Canterbury Park’s Extreme Day, you got quite a treat. I couldn’t make it, but I watched the Dodge Canterbury Report and it appears that all the gimmick races went off without a hitch...well, unless you were assigned to ride an ostrich. Kudos to Keith Davis for handling that. The much talked about battle of the surfaces was dominated by turfers filling the entire super. Icy Tobin dominated a 770 yard mixed breed affair en route to setting a track record. A season high crowd of 16,000 plus took in the afternoon.

As I had expected, payoffs were through the roof, too. Virtually every race offered (except the opener and 5 furlong maiden turf sprint) were run under conditions that, very likely, none of these animals will ever be asked to do again. As such, handicapping the card was a mess. I was thrilled that the pick 6 carried over to Extreme Day as I knew it wouldn’t be hit on such a quirky day. The result? A little better than $5,000 in the pool for buck night action. For those playing the home game, we actually should have emptied that pool on Thursday night at around $2,000. Happily, more than twice that is waiting for us tomorrow night. I’m diligently working on my research and will post my picks for buck night tomorrow morning.

Friday Free-for-all

2007-07-20T10:58:00.000-07:00

Last night’s picks worked out pretty well, with 8 of 9 winners appearing on the sheet, missing only the quarterhorse nightcap. In fact, if you had played the pick six using my picks and only went as deep as needed to get the winner, it would have been a $24 (3,10 w 4,5 w 1,4,5 w 7 w 4,7 w 7) ticket that would have scooped the nearly $2,100 pool that carries over to tonight’s action and been in line for a few of the 5 of 6 payoffs at $55 each. Okay, the single in the last leg was a late scratch which reverted to the betting favorite Betting Ladd who positively crushed the field, but you need a little luck to hit the pick 6. The separator was Arghazi in the fifth race, which also led to an outsized pick 4 payoff of $210 as well.

A few people have e-mailed me asking why I’m posting this. Well, here are a few reasons:
1) I love this game. Ever since I watched Ghost Creek destroy a field of 6 $15,000 claimers in the lid lifter on my first Buck Night on June 23, 2005, I’ve been hooked. Beauty, elegance, emotion and adrenaline all fuse together to make this one of the most riveting sporting events I’ve ever attended. Mix in my penchant for all things nerdy and analyzing speed, form, pace and class just fits right in.
2) As part of my preparation for a night of pari-mutuel equine future investment, I always used to write myself a page or so of notes on each race. This naturally lent itself to a blog…even if it took me two years to figure that out. Yes, these are my actual notes that I take to the track to play. I should have had the pick 6 last night, but I did listen to myself enough.
3) Accountability. When I kept my notes to myself, I didn’t hold myself accountable. Now that the picks are out there, I have no choice but to keep myself honest.
4) To educate. This is such a great game and if I can introduce just one person to it and make them better at it and have some fun with it, that would make this blog more useful than expected.

On a separate note, yes, I play and handicap tracks other than Canterbury Park. However, Canterbury is my home track and during the live season I’ll probably only post about local racing. Throughout the rest of the year, you may find picks and comments posted for other tracks around the country and bonus picks for big races across the country. If you’d like to banter about racing, I welcome your e-mails and/or comments.

Without further delay, let’s look at a competitive Friday card.

Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Par Five in Two – This guy has been knocking on the door at this level for a couple races and looks primed to break through here. He’s tough to play against, despite the short price.
3 – El Inmigrante – This colt takes a step down in class after trailing throughout against 15,000 claimers. He won and placed at that level and unless something is physically wrong, he figures to be prominent here.
5 – Turtle Mountain – Questions abound here, but there is plenty to like. The Turtle has a tendency to show up in the money at goofy prices. New shooter T.D. Houghton has moved up some longer-priced horses in his short tenure at the Park. He’s never tried two turns, but drops in class and his running history tends to show him strengthening as the race progresses. Despite a pedigree that suggests sprints only, he could be the whacky horse that inflates the trifecta or he could fade to last. Goofy, but I’ve got a hunch.

Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
2 – Singitagaingeorge – This guy gets blinkers for the first time and takes the biggest class drop in the sport from special weights to claiming. Houghton takes the mount for owner/trainer Jack McCartney. He’ll appreciate the class relief and his speed figures put him in the mix.
6 – Snowsapassing – After faltering against 15,000 claimers, this one drops back to a level at which he has shown a competitive side. The form cycles suggests improvement which may put him in the winner’s circle.
5 – Mountain Quest – He and the above exchanged bumps early in their last contest, yet this one recovered to be close early and hold 4th at 53-1. A clean trip would put him close to the pace with a shot at the money late.

Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
10 – Cachemassa Creek – Trainer Bryan Porter has won with 35% of his starters this season and put 14 of 17 (82%) in the money. This colt trailed throughout in his last effort on the dirt and tries the lawn for the first time. The speed figures put him in the mix, and if he can replicate his effort in December in Phoenix, he’ll be tough to beat.
4 – Siphon Ridge – Scott Stevens has been hot of late and climbs about this gelding. This is his third trip off the bench and should be ready to fire a good one.
12 – Thong View – Breaking from the 12 post is no picnic, but Riggs should take back and tuck in behind the speed early, then unleash a closing kick down the lane. The problem is the short run to the turn in a 7 ½ furlong race. If he gets hung wide early, a minor award becomes the ceiling.

Race 4: 17,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – El Tejano – This animal takes a step up into the allowance ranks after defeating 15,000 claimers. There are a lot of changes going on here switching from sprints to routing and dirt to turf, but he’s proven versatile and his pedigree suggests he’ll like this ground. He’ll get a good trip from post 2 and may win.
1 – Louie de Plus – He ships in from Arlington where he has run well over the polytrack. Horses usually translate poly form to the turf quite nicely. It’s also his third race off the bench and could improve enough to score.
5 – Kon Krete Kid – He shipped in from Churchill Downs for his last and ran bravely along the rail, but couldn’t catch Dynamite Will (post 12) late. He should get a fine trip from the five hole be close at the end.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
2/2B – Tail Lights/Valid Discovery – The baby girls had two races last night, but now it’s time for the baby boys. I’ll take the second two for one entry. Both of these animals ran well in their last efforts and seem to be continually improving.
7 – B.B. Hill – He was hung wide throughout in his last effort, but still managed to place a huge odds. If he repeats that effort, he may very well leave all of these in his wake.
1/1A – Tez Sunaman/Sahan – The lovely and talented Tammy Domenosky sends these two postward and both appear live. One of these had a traffic-riddled trip while the other debuts. The works on both are fair and neither would be a big surprise if they hit the ticket.

Race 6: 21,675 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
3 – Watch Me Closely – After dusting a couple of claiming fields, trainer Francisco Bravo moves this mare into the allowance ranks, where I think she’ll do just fine. Bravo won three races on last night’s card and figures to get one here as well. She put in a sizzling work a week ago which doesn’t hurt either.
1 – Heavens Work – The Olesiak brothers tend to win in bunches. They’ve been hot over the last couple weeks and may have a live one here. The pace should be fair which will set up her late kick quite well.
6 – Sucara – Okay, I’ll admit, I’m a bit smitten with Tammy Domenosky, but I think her horse is live in this race, too. She kicked off the July 3 fireworks display early by blowing up the tote board at 22-1 in the nightcap. That price won’t be available here, but Garcia keeps the mount and you should get some excitement for your buck as she passes plenty of these late.

Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Iron Boy – This guy just likes to win. There’s some competition here and the class level could be problematic, but until he get beat, I’ll keep picking him.
4 – Taco Don – He poses the biggest threat to the above. He won on Cinco de Mayo in allowance company and has only been beaten at this distance by ace sprinters Icy Tobin, Carless Navigator and Sir Tricky. The competition is lighter here and he looms large.
8 – America West – If anyone is going to topple the top pair, it’s this guy. He’s a cagey veteran at age 7, but he makes his third trip off the layoff and has been improving with each start. He just sizzled 3 furlongs in 34 flat last week, too. Houghton gets the call and I wouldn’t be surprised to this one on the board.

Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Paulistanna – This filly has spent much of her career going two turns. In her debut she went 6 furlongs and missed by only 3 parts of a length. She didn’t enjoy the sod in Chicago last out and a return to the dirt will be appreciated.
9 – Affection – The post position won’t be easy to overcome and she has a bad case of seconditis, hence second billing here. She’s been sent off as the favorite in all four career starts and may be there again tonight. She’s got a chance, but is a risky proposition at short odds.
4 – Ocean Sky – She showed some good early speed despite being bumped before fading to last in her debut. The workouts leading up to that race were impressive and she definitely fits well with this bunch. With a clean break, she may be a bit more relaxed and have a shot at the prize.

Back for more

2007-07-19T13:43:00.000-07:00

Well, Lady Canterbury Day didn't go as planned. I only had 4 winners on the card. To be honest, allowance and stakes races aren't my cup of tea. Give me a card of maidens and claimers and I've got a shot. Funny, that's what tonight's card looks like. Here are the picks, guaranteed to, well, exist.

Race 1: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
2 – Keep It – This is a wide-open affair of six entrants, and I’ll take the class of the race. Keep It has been running against much better groups and should be a factor throughout.
4 – Smokin Jordan – After appearing to be a one trick pony as the pacesetter during his two year-old campaign, Smokin Jordan has shown a willingness to sit off the pace and strike. Mix in a bullet workout last Saturday and Smokin Jordan could get the money here.
1 – Kitty Litter – This guy ran a huge effort when alone on the lead in his last. He figures to have some company early, but should still hit the board.

Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Tour Me Honey – This filly hasn’t run in six weeks, but has the look of the winner among this bunch. A sharp workout on Sunday hints at a good effort here.
5 – Stormy Babe – Paul Nolan continues his approach to 1,000 career wins and may be sitting on 998 right here. This mare has shown a propensity to settle for smaller shares, but if the above isn’t ready off the vacation, this one could score.
4 – Misty Trick – This mare hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in 18 months. In her last few trips she’s dueled herself into the ground and faded badly. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed here, so if Lori Keith can settle her as they travel the backstretch, she could get a decent piece of the pie.

Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf, Fillies and Mares
3 – Princess Courtney – This appears to be the right spot for her to win her second race. She had some traffic trouble in her last when hung wide on the first turn. A more inside post position should prevent that this time and give her a shot in a very competitive 12 lady field.
10 – Big Hitter – It’s nearly impossible to win a 7 ½ furlong race from this wide of a post, but this filly has been doing a lot of things right lately. She hasn’t run on the lawn in well over a year, but I think she’s well suited to it. She should offer some decent value underneath.
6 – Tobin’s Royalty – This one will make her third trip off the layoff and if she returns to anything like the form she showed in Phoenix, she wins this one.
2 – Puff N Smoke – This one will be the post time favorite and deservedly so having never run worse than second. The gray would be no surprise here, but the value will be non-existent.

Race 4: 10,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
5 – Triumph Arch – I hate playing the chalk, but this one looks much best here. She drops in class for a training winning 30% of his starters at the meet and draws Nolan. The distance could be a problem, but there are too many positives to ignore.
4 – Kami Dee – If the above wasn’t in the race, I’d single this lady in the pick 6 without hesitation. She loves this turf course (7 of 11 in the money), but was all out to prevail by a neck in her last. Big chance, but no cinch.
7 – Play N Fare – She exits a race where she was bested by a neck by Kami Dee. She closed well in that and could turn the tables tonight.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Dette’s Dream – The baby girls do battle here, this one figures to look for the lead early. She ran into a good one in Big Sandy Lake in her last race. It may be diploma time.
4 – Danube’s Hawk – She will likely duel with the above, but she hasn’t shown the ability to carry her speed as far. Should settle for a minor share.
1 – Arghazi – As the only debutante in the field, she lacks the experience of the rest, but her morning workout tab suggests she may have some talent. In a statebred affair such as this, that’s a nice thing to have.

Race 6: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Bump’ndazzle – More baby girls square off here. She ran very well in her debut and faces a pretty soft bunch here. Lasix will help and Garcia should keep her prominent throughout. There won’t be any value here, but she looks tough.
3 – Bri Bri – She ran third behind Dette’s Dream in her last effort. If they met here, I’d take Bri Bri. Since they are apart, they both might win.
6 – Gown – She showed nothing in her debut, but switches to Gary Sherer’s barn which is winning at a 34% clip at the meeting. Martinez climbs in the irons and could put this one in the money.

Race 7: 22,950 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
7 – Tez Taran – On paper, this one is the lone speed and we know what Garcia can do alone on the lead. The form cycle looks positive, too and he’ll be tough.
4 – Shot of Somerset – If the above has company on the lead and slows down, this one should fly by late to get the money. He’s bested better fields and would be no surprise here.
5 – Abit O Irish – Similar to the above, this one figures to benefit if the speed stops. He has a win and a place from two starts at the meet and looms dangerous.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Somerset Call – He’s been runner-up in each of his last two. He’s run better each time and should be tough here.
6 – Ezn Thru – This first timer sports and impressive workout tab. The lovely apprentice Jenna Joubert takes the mount and brings a five pound weight allowance with her. All signs point to a good effort.
5 – Betting Ladd – This guy has been close in a couple efforts at this distance against much tougher competition. He tried two turns in his last and it didn’t take, but perhaps built some stamina. Might hit the board at a price.

Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claiming, 250 yards
6 – Six Buds for You – The only firster of the nightcap comes in with a solid bunch of morning efforts. Amber Blair is having a good season training the Q’s and may send this one off to victory on his first try.
5 – All Stride No Brakes – Besides having the best name in the field, the filly just missed in her last effort despite an awkward start. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
1 – One Rare Delegate – The lady just hasn’t gotten a clean start, but has given decent efforts anyway. A clean break puts her right in the mix.

Lady Canterbury Day

2007-07-14T10:50:00.000-07:00

Thursday night's picks were a mixed bag. My top choice ran in the money in 8 of 9 races and the race winner was among my top three in 7 of 9. Boxing the top selections in each race would have netted 5 exactas and 3 trifectas. Not a bad effort, but I can do better.

Today's card is loaded with quality races, headlined by the 100,000 Lady Canterbury Breeders Cup stakes in race 6. Also of note is the arrival of jockey T.D. Houghton who has been banned from riding at many tracks due to an investigation into racing at Great Lakes Downs.

Lastly, the weather today is magnificent. I hope you can make it to the track for what should be a fantastic day of racing. Without further ado, on with the picks.

Race 1 - 21,675 Allowance, 6 furlongs
3 - Bjellebo - This gelding has been at the top of his game on the Canterbury dirt this season in winning both efforts. He tried the lawn last time and ran well despite finishing 5th. He should appreciate the switch back to his preferred surface and best this bunch.
5 - Willy Wompus - He's had a couple months off to recharge after giving a gutsy effort in defeat. Ness and Nolan have been clicking all season and stand a decent shot at victory in this contest.
6 - Bay Talk - He takes a sharp jump up in class while switching from open company to statebreds. Marvin Johnson has started to click lately and Escobar is long overdue to rattle off a half dozen wins in a weekend. Should offer a little value for the exotics.

Race 2 - 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 - Cryptic Affair - This little lady should relish the class relief from special weight and has run her best races at 6 furlongs, finishing in the money in three of four tries at the distance.
2 - Aloha Richter - She also takes a similar class drop and goes from turf to dirt. She should be close and always gives an honest effort.
5 - Data Profile - This first timer lures Derek Bell into the saddle and shows a competitive work out tab leading up to today's debut. Deserves some attention among a pretty soft group.

Race 3 - 5,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
4 - Pouco Moleque - This animal has missed under similar conditions by a neck and a head. I think he does enough to get all the money this time.
5 - Flying Strawberry - Won his last out by setting the pace. Will likely duel with the above throughout with the strongest surviving.
7 - Sheba's Charm - If the pace duel described above burns out those runners, this gelding stands the best chance of picking up the pieces. Recently tried the lawn a couple times with little success. Switching back to the dirt will be much appreciated and should result in at least a minor share.

Race 4 - 23,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
4 - Frontier Franny - This race features six classy ladies who could have run in today's feature, but their connections drop them in here. Franny is a gutsy mare that has run really well over the last year. She's 5 for 7 in the money at this distance and the pace scenario seems to project a nice set up for her late run.
2 - Couple Whiles - She should sit just behind the 3 and 6 mares as they set the pace and make the first run at passing in the stretch. She might be good enough.
1 - Phone the Diva - The Diva is the wildcard in this race. She's been on vacation for over a year when she beat both of the above. She's a year older now and shows a solid set of morning works leading up to today's return. If she's right, she'll be just inside of Couple Whiles a couple lengths off the early lead and fire her best shot down the lane.

Race 5 - 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs
2 - Thatsalottabull - The gray ran a clunker in his last over the poly at Arlington, but if you forgive that race, he appears much best among this group. Probably won't get much of a price, but he's tough to beat here.
3 - Ber Bear - this colt always gives an honest effort and has never run out of the money. This will be his third start off the layoff and he should improve enough to be a considerable factor in this race.
7 - Duke Deluxe - Blew out a field of maidens last out and appears to possess the brand of tactical speed that could make him a contender here.

Race 6 - 100,000 Lady Canterbury Breeders' Cup stakes, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
2 - My Chickadee - On paper, this is a pretty odd race. It's on the lawn, but there is a ton of early speed to guarantee hot fractions. That pace scenario should set up My Chickadee to sit a couple lengths back, fire her best shot and fly past the tired speed.
4 - Tens Holy Spirit - She's likely outclassed here, but the best local hope has the right running style to potential repeat her upset victory of the Claiming Crown Tiara last year. She's fun to root for and may pull a shocker.
3 - Rich Fantasy - She ships in from Lone Star Park after a gutsy third place finish in the Grade 3 Ouija Board. She's the logical winner here, but her front running style will be pressured by up to four other horses. She led late in the Ouija Board but tired and was passed late. I could see this exact scenario playing out again here.

Race 7 - 45,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs
2 - Lite Brigade - Has finished in the top two in each of his last 8 tries. A confirmed sprinter, he comes out of a second place finish in the 45,000 Free Press stakes at Assiniboia with a troubled trip. He prefers the lead and this bunch doesn't look to eager to take it from him. May win big.
4 - Bobadieu - He drops out of a stakes race as well and should appreciate the class relief. The breeding here is terrific and he was purchased for $140,000 in 2004. He's 6 for 9 in the money at Canterbury and should make his presence known.
6 - No Term Limit - This guy makes his second start off the layoff and should improve on his third place finish at Lincoln. If he gets back to the form he showed this winter in Arkansas, he could pose for pictures.

Race 8 - 35,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf
6 - Lt. Sampson - The house horse was Canterbury horse of the year in 2005. He continues to improve with each start on the lawn this season and looks poised to run huge. He'll make his move on the turn and may power home.
7 - Habaneros - He shipped in from Iowa and won bravely in his last at 10-1. You won't get a price anywhere near that today, but he should give you a thrill for your investment.
1 - Big Tex - He's run in the money in 4 of 6 starts in the Canterbury weeds and factors prominently here. He won his last against similar at this distance while sitting behind the pace. Expect a similar run today.

Race 9 - 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 - Struttinherstuff - Has knocked on the door in each of last two at short prices and fallen short. The improving form signals that a break through is coming. Will it be in the nightcap?
10 - Prospect Joi - I'm not a fan of the post position, but this girl has improved in each of her last two and in her third run off the bench, could make some noise.
12 - Susie's Sugar Shot - Again, the post position doesn't help and one has to wonder why she was pulled up in her first effort, but the workouts signal that she should be in the mix in this group. At 12-1 on the morning line, she should be a nice price.

Buck Night!

2007-07-12T11:57:00.000-07:00

Canterbury Park features a 9 race card as buck night kicks of Lady Canterbury weekend. An $1,122 pick 6 carryover adds a little juice to a pretty decent night of racing. My inaugural tipsheet is below. If you happened upon one of these at the track, check back for semi-regular postings. In the future, I'll post my record and map out some betting strategy in addition to the picks. Happy wagering!

Canterbury Park – July 14, 2007

Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
3 – Johnny Walker Roan – This is a pretty motley bunch of statebreads. Despite never finishing closer than 6 lengths behind the winner in his career, this gelding is bred to get this distance while others have serious stamina questions.
1 – Born Running – This would be one of those with real stamina questions. Has shown some ability sprinting and showed a pretty decent workout tab in early June. Off awkwardly in his last, he should sit near the pace and have first run down the lane.
6 – Prospect Point – This animal has tired badly after dueling for the lead in has past two races. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed in this affair which could leave this animal alone on the lead. If he gets a breather in the middle, he’ll be tough to pass in the stretch.

Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
7 – Booster – This seven year-old has been at the top of his game since shipping north. He’s scored a couple gamely wins in his last two. You won’t get much of a price, but he appears best.
4 – Stetter Jr – This gelding made up a ton of ground late in his last to win by 4. With the above, Hank ‘n Ace and Thunder Squall in here, the pace should be honest enough to set up his late run.
6 – Chief Magistrate – The Chief didn’t fare too well on the sod in his last. He cuts back in distance switches back to the Canterbury dirt where he’s 67% in the money in his career. Should offer a square price.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
7 – Byefornow – Has run second in each of her last two. Tonight should be her night. Watch for her to set reasonable fractions and have Garcia push the button on the turn.
11 – Prima Dancer – Had a little trouble her last, but made up ground sweetly when clear. She’ll be charging late and if the pace stops, may graduate.
4 – Ultimat Perfection – She also had some trouble last out while racing close to the pace. Nolan owns this turf course and should sit just off the pace and have first run at the top of the lane.

Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
3 – Demon’s Storm – This filly will appreciate the class drop back into the allowance ranks. She ran an admirable 4th in the Northbound Pride stakes and beat Frances Genter stakes winner Run With Joy three back.
4 – Saveeta – This mare is a bit of an enigma, but she tends to wake up at odd times and score at fair prices. Her form cycle looks pretty good, too. I’m not sure she can topple the above, but should fit in nicely in the exotics.
2 – Grandmas’ Girl – There are a lot of early speed types in this race. I expect that the bookenders will duel each other into the ground leaving plenty of pieces for those that close in late. This one fits the bill.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Mamama – Ran second at this level two back. Had a wide trip against better in last. The inside post should set her up with a nicer trip, which may get her to the winner’s circle.
8 – Candlelight Dance – She bounced at Lincoln after running her heart out on April 22. She’s had a couple months off and should be ready to go at first asking. Using the bug rider’s weight break helps, too.
3 – Jovial Angel – This one and the 7 filly will likely battle for the early lead. Jovial Angel seems more likely to be able to carry this field into the turn and maybe all the way.

Race 6: 4,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles
5 – Sandrican – After running third twice in a row against better, this gelding drops in for the lowest tag available searching for that elusive W. He’s 4 of 6 in the money on the Canterbury dirt and will make his move down the stretch.
6 – Gospodin – This veteran of the claiming ranks has a bad habit of not winning at short prices. There won’t be any value again tonight, but he’s a contender.
1 – Lunarco – This guy reared at the start in last, spotting the field 13 lengths, but rallied to finish third, beaten only 5 lengths. A clean start puts him right in the mix.

Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Sentimental Charm – This classy multiple stakes winner finds herself in the Allowance ranks again where she appears best. She’s won 6 of 11 at Canterbury in her wonderful career. Not much here to prevent win number 7.
4 – Jills Classy – She figures to be the likely pace setter. If she doesn’t get pressured, she may dig in and not let the above pass.
2 – Salty Attraction – Has shown a propensity to make up big ground late. If anyone gets lazy on the lead, this mare could get paid.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
2 – Silent Preacher – This is a tough race to figure, but this one appears most likely. He’s run progressively better in each of his last 4 this year and may finally be fit enough to take down the prize.
4 – Island Doc – The jockey switch to Bell bodes well after running a career best in last out at a huge price. Trainer Marvin Johnson tends win more frequently later in the year and may have this one cranked up for a big one.
10 – Royal Fox – This gelding made up a ton of ground late in his last, missing by only a length. The main concern here is that there doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed, which may compromise his late burst.

Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claiming, 330 yards
2 – Bye Bye Special – Ran decently in last, but should appreciate the extra distance in here. Consistently close and fits in nicely with 5,800 maidens.
4 – Ground Candy – Has finished in the money in all three starts this year and may step forward and graduate tonight.
6 – Dashing Tipper – He fired a great effort in last and figures quite prominently in a pretty wide open contest.