Preakness weekend wrap

Alright, let's get the hyperbole out of the system early. Big Brown won in a well-compensated work in company. That's all that was. Despite being 12 horses deep, this has to be one of the saddest Preakness fields of all time. Speculation will be rampant about whether Big Brown can win the Triple Crown and whether he is actually this good or if the rest of his generation is just that bad. I lean more toward the latter on that one, but you can't take anything away from him. All he can do is beat who is willing to run against him...and that's exactly what he's done and done it impressively.

Big Brown wasn't the only horse to turn in an eye-popping effort this week. Do yourself a favor. Go here: http://www.netjamstv.com/canterbury/canterbury_report.htm and register if you have to, but watch the first race from Sunday. Something called Siphon R.N. popped the gate on a short field, set hot fractions and drew away by 24 lengths late. It was nearly Secretariat-esque, except it was a starter allowance race. I would look for this lady to have a very good season in Shakopee. You probably won't get a square price...ever...but she will likely make more trips to the winner's circle.

Canterbury has now run 7 racing programs which equates to roughly 10%. That's enough to draw some conclusions...maybe. Here are some statistics for your enjoyment...

Jockey Standings (Starts-wins-win percentage)
Derek Bell 43-10-23.3%
Paul Nolan 45-9-20%
Jason Lumpkins 43-7-16.3%
Dean Butler 41-6 14.6%
Jesse Garcia 23-4-17.4%
Scott Stevens 36-4-11.1%
Ry Eikleberry 11-4-36.4%

That's about what you would expect. Not Eikleberry's win percentage. He had a great winter at Turf Paradise and I expect him to have a great season here. He probably won't in at a 36% clip or put horses in the money at his current 55% clip, but you'll usually get a square price on an Eikleberry mount. Also of note, Manny Vazquez is 2 for 3 on the season. He'll also be riding some price horses.

Trainers
I'm not even going to bore you with the stats. Ness, Robertson and Evans are all winning at around 30% clips. No surprises there. Percy Sherbenske has won with 3 of 6 starters and Red Rarick has put 6 of 8 runners in the money, both of which are noteworthy.

Favorites
Favorites are 22 for 61 on the meet for a 36% winning percentage, which is only slighly above industry norms. When you break it down a little, some trends emerge.

Open Sprints 13 for 32 - 40.6%
Statebred Sprints 4 for 16 - 25%
Open Routes 4 for 11 - 36.4%
Statebred Routes 1 for 2 - 50%

Obviously the routes data is a bit slim, but open routes are holding true to form and statebreds offer insufficient data to draw any real conclusions. Sprints on the other hand, while collectively at 35% show some real differentiation between open company and Minnesota breds. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that most MN breds only run at Canterbury. Thus, it is hard to guage who is going to fire when first asked this season. As some of these get their second and thirds starts in on the season, I would expect to see more favorites winning. In the meantime, if you are looking for a good score, find the statebred sprints and find ways to beat the favorite.

This weekend brings us our first 4 day racing weekend which features the opening of the turf course on Saturday, the first baby race on Friday night and the return of the Canterbury Classic Wally's Choice. Yep, the 7 year old is back on the lawn on Saturday after missing all of last season with injury. It sure will be good to see the old guy back...plus Wally the Beerman is just really fun to root for...isn't he? Back later with Friday picks...