Kentucky Derby Thoughts, Picks & Plays

As I've mentioned previously, I am thoroughly confused by this year's derby. This crop of 3 year-olds appears to be the most lackluster that I have ever seen. Now bear in mind, I've only been intently following thoroughbreds since the summer of 2005, so I only have Babaro's and Curlin's classes for comparison purposes. That said, this group looks pretty soft. Anyway, let's take a look at the field in the following manner: Probables, Maybes, Unlikelies and Throw Outs...

Throw Outs:
3 Anak Nakal - This one hasn't run a step since November. Here's here by virtue of his graded stakes earnings at 2. I don't see how this one finishes anywhere near the top half.
7 Big Truck - I can forgive the clunker at Keeneland (this will become a theme), but his wins at Tampa were against fields filled with nothingburgers. Yeah, I know he beat War Pass in the Tampa Derby, but there was something wrong with War Pass. Plus, his reputation kept away many worthy runners. Big Truck benefitted from that, but he has no chance in here.
11 Z Humor - He's here thanks to a dead heat victory in the $1 million Delta Jackpot. Can we get this race ungraded? There is no way that winning at Delta Downs, a 5 furlong track, should qualify anyone for the derby. He's been a dully 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last three. I just don't see it.
15 Adriano - He has one start on the dirt and it was a dismal 9th. He looks better suited to the poly or turf. Yeah, I know Prado chose to ride him, but I think that has more to do with timing that actually preferring this one over others.
17 Cowboy Cal - Similar to Adriano in that his one start on dirt was a clunker. Mix in the fact that he's going to want the early lead and is far off the rail and you've got my pick to run dead last.
18 Recapturetheglory - I know he has the third highest Beyer in the field, but I can't believe that the Hawthorne merry-go-round is indicative of this colt's talent. I'm sure he's a good horse, but he's another early speed type and finds himself even further outside. He may be close early, but he'll fade badly through the stretch.

Unlikelies
1 Cool Coal Man - If you ignore the Keeneland debacle, this one looks like a horse that is peaking. He owns a win over this surface and has some stamina in his pedigree from Mineshaft/A.P. Indy. Still, he'll get buried by the collapsing wall of horses leaving the gate from the rail. I don't think it's going to happen.
8 Visionaire - He was one of the few to have some success in the Blue Grass, yet he still ran 5th. His win in the Gotham was hidden in the fog, but it is widely accepted that that field was awfully weak. Basically, he hasn't beaten much and seems to be a plodder. Like Imawildandcrazyguy last year, he could find the super late, but a win is very unlikely.
12 Smooth Air - He ran a decent second behind Big Brown and he would make for a nice story for trainer Bernie Stutts. That said, he was stricken with a fever early in the week and I'm not convinced that he's right. He's unlikely to be there at the end.
13 Bob Black Jack - He ran a gritty one in near the lead in the Santa Anita Derby before being nailed late by Colonel John. He also sports the best career Beyer of any of these with a 109 in the Sunshine Millions Dash in January. All that being said, his pedigree suggests he can't get 10 furlongs and he is going to want the lead early, which may be a death wish. He is the inside speed, but I can't see this happen.
14 Monba - He comes off a sharp win in the Blue Grass and he owns a win over the Churchill dirt. That said, I think he's best suited to the fake dirt. He will be saddled by Todd Pletcher, though he couldn't win this race last year when he had 5 starters. I think this one is best ignored.

Maybes
2 Tale of Ekati - Yeah, he won the Wood, but it was really, really slow. He tracked some hot fractions set by War Pass and just got up late. He should secure a good spot early and may get first run at the leaders. That said, I just don't think he's fast enough.
4 Court Vision - He should have shown more in the Wood with the pace in front of him. Even with the perfect set up he could only get to third. Mix in the amount of traffic he will have to weave through and I think he'll settle for a minor share at best. A perfect trip could get him home first, but it's not likely.
5 Eight Belles - The filly has handled her business against her own kind and gives the boys a shot. She'll have to track fractions that are much faster than she's used to. She might be good enough, but I don't know. I think there is just too much chaos in a race like this for her to win.
16 Denis of Cork - Before that clunker in the Illinois Derby, he was among the favorites to win this. Thanks to some late defectors, he still gets into the field. If he shows the turn of foot that he showed in the Southwest, he has a shot. I just don't know whether or not the Hawthorne bomb was fluke or a hint.
19 Gayego - He was lights out in winning the Arkansas Derby. However, he is both pedigree and post-challenged in this one. Prior to the post draw, I would have told you I like Gayego as a win candidate. He's going to have to gun it early from his post to get any sort of position at the first turn. There are too many obstacles here for me to be too optimistic.

Probables
6 Z Fortune - He, too, ran a monster one in the Arkansas Derby, missing by only 3 parts of a length while parked 4 wide the whole way around. He's all but guaranteed a better position when breaking from the 6th spot and appears to be geared up to run a big one. The price should be square, too.
9 Pyro - If you cross out the Blue Grass, Pyro appears to be rounding into sharp form. The fear is that he peaked early. I have altered my DRF PPs so that the Blue Grass isn't even on the page. If he repeats his Risen Star effort, he could best these.
10 Colonel John - He's handled everything that has been thrown at him out west. The concern is that he hasn't run on dirt yet. He should have put those concerns to bed with a sharp 57 and 4 drill over this surface. He's by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, so the distance won't be a problem
20 Big Brown - Your morning line favorite is going to need a GPS to find the rail from his post. He's inexperienced, but the show he put on in the Florida Derby was too impressive to ignore. Is he better than Curlin? That one ran third in this race last year. He rates a good chance, but he has a lot to overcome.

So, that's the field. How will they finish?
1. Colonel John
2. Z Fortune
3. Pyro
4. Court Vision

Well, that's how I see it. How am I going to play it?

$20 win on #6 - Z Fortune
$1 tri 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,16,20 = $8
$1 super 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,20 w/ 4,5,6,9,16,19,20 = $30
$1 exacta box 4,6,9,10,16 = $20

$78 is more than I would ever spend on any other race, but this is the derby and the pools will be huge. Obviously, to get value out of these I'm going to need Z Fortune to run the race of his life. I think he can do it, but I have no illusions that I have any idea who will win this. If you have a strong feeling, don't be afraid to play it.