The Freakness and Friday Night Racing

Tomorrow marks the return of the 7 pm post time in Shakopee. It has been a long, long offseason. I'm looking forward to my buck nights again next month, but I'll settle for tomorrow's post-dusk action. Saturday also brings leg two of the triple crown, where the infield festivities are lovingly referred to as the Freakness. Let's find some winners.

Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
2 Seismatic - We open the card with a short field of allowance sprinters. I'm not going to spend too much space on this one. The Ness/Nolan combination comes together with the best speed figures on the page. He's the chalk and should handle these.
3 Indian Hoss - Here's the best shot at an upset, but he'll be a short price too.
5 Parisian Friend - I like what I've seen from Jason Lumpkins this season. He lands here with the animal that appears to have the best gate speed. If he can shoot to the lead, he could spring the upset. Basically, I'd skip this race as there is no value to be had unless the unthinkable happens.

Race 2: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Filles and Mares
6 Officer Dont Shoot - This gal comes off a stamina builder when going a mile at Will Rogers Downs. She faded to third on that day, but I think that should give her the foundation to stay on when the favorite comes charging in the lane.
3 I'm the Mary - Here's your favorite. She brings a similar prep race into this one, except that she faded badly at Hawthorne, a track that tends to favor front runners. I'll take a stand against, but the Bell/Robertson tandem will be formidable.
4 Your Imagination - Can anyone explain to me how AP Espindola still gets the apprentice allowance? He's been an apprentice since I started coming to the races in 2005. One thing is for sure, you'll always get a price on an AP mount. The one won't win, but it stands a shot to round out a tri quite nicely in a short field.

Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 Payyourtax - This one ships in from Tampa, drops in class and shows a solid work out tab leading up to this one. Dean Butler has the mount and this one looks ready to roll in a big way.
6 Caleb Boy - He didn't run a step on opening day. He hasn't hit the board since 2006. He put in a 1 mile work on May 7 which should help get him in shape. Maybe he's done. Maybe he can hang with this at tall odds. I'm willing to take a chance.
4 Cookson - He comes off a win this March for Jamie Ness and Jason Lumpkins climbs aboard. Lots to like, but the price will be skinny.

Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 Innisbrook - He broke slowly a couple weeks ago, but rallied to miss by only a length and change. This group doesn't look too tough and if he gets away from the gate in good order, he should be set up for a W.
5 Strum Bum - The Bum comes back off short rest looking to improve. He's been known showing lightning quick early speed before fading down the stretch. He seemed to figure a few things out about winning last year. He had a nightmare trip last out, but he looks like the one to catch early, and that's a good place to be on this oval.
6 Ivans in a Tiz - He has every right to win this one, but he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct. I'd count on a minor share, though he has every right to run past them all late.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile 70 Yards
6 - Shergar's Spirit - He ran well when chasing the impressive effort of Sahan on opening day. A repeat of that effort should win this heat.
4 - Tugfire - He had some misadventures last year. He missed the break in his debut before rallying strongly late. Then he showed speed and faded in round 2, before showing speed and getting caught late in his third effort. He's working well which means he might be ready here.
5 - Youve Been Warned - He's been running well on the lawn in Phoenix, but he showed nothing here last season. Maybe he's just grown up. He's the logical pick on first glance, but there are enough questions to side elsewhere at this price.

Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Filles and Mares
7 Kayla Do - She's been running competitively against much better in Hot Springs. She hasn't won in a while, but with Bell riding for Robertson, it's going to happen soon...if not here.
1 Stop That Akki - Last time she did two turns she won. She should get a good stalking trip for Ness and Nolan. Class is a bit of question as others appear more accomplished, but she's worth a shot.
6 Rose Fever - She exits a gritty win in Chicago where she had to do battle on the lead and then hold off another foe. There are class questions here as well, but I think that last effort really shows her toughness.

Race 7: 10,000 Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs
1 Secret Fever - This one has put in four consecutive 3 furlong works at 35 seconds and change. That, folks, is some early quicks. The 7 year old is ripe to improve on with his third trip off the lay off. He's worth a shot.
7 Fizzy Pop - He's been working like a rock star, but he like to come from off the pace. That path doesn't often win at Canterbury. He wouldn't be a surprise, but I think he settles for lower prizes.
3 John Hennessy - Here is another Ness/Nolan charge that looks primed for a win. He switches out of turf sprints, but has every right to win this dirt duel anyway. The favorite.

Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
6 Cap Spring Squall - This guy has some nice morning works for 20% trainer Shawn Talbot. Sure, others seem more likely, but you get a great long shot jockey in Lori Keith aboard for what could be a very rewarding price. I'll give this one a whirl.
7 Marky P - This one looks like he should set the pace. He got caught late in his last at Tampa. If he gets clear, the rest might be running for 2nd place.
10 Pivot Pad - He takes a fat class drop here which may be just what he needs to cure his stretch fading problem. Softer company will help and a paycheck should be in order.

The Preakness
Really, there's no analysis here. Big Brown should win handily and he'll be 2-5ish. I think the pick 4 that ends on the Preakness might offer some value, but the 2nd leg is impossible. So, I'll probably pass on Preakness action.