Canterbury Opening Day Picks

After a long wait, the Canterbury meet starts on Saturday. Rumor has it there is racing elsewhere in the country that day, but let's stick to what's important. The card has a few races with short fields, but the Minnesota-bred races are full of intrigue. Most of these animals haven't run since last season, so picking winners may as well entail the use of a dartboard. Anyway, I found handicapping this entire card a lot easier than trying to put my thoughts together about the derby. I'll be back later tonight with my derby thoughts. Anyway, on to the picks.

Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
7 – Dark Indulgence – The 2008 season kicks of with a claimer. This fella has shown an affinity for the Canterbury dirt and had some of his best efforts at this distance last year. He’s warmed up with three fair efforts at Fonner and could take the lid lifter.
6 – Shoebootie – This one drops out of starter allowance company at Fonner and could loom a large threat to the top choice. He hasn’t shown the killer instinct needed to win lately, but he should get a share.
3 – Sheba’s Charm – This one was awful the last time he was at the races. That said, he gets one of my favorite sneaky good jockeys in Dean Butler. He’s also put together a series of steadily improving works over this surface. Not likely, but possible.

Race 2: 18,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Vanilla Scoop – This one has so many things going for it. Derek Bell rides for Mac Robertson and he has the best last race of the bunch, despite running 6th against much better. To boot, he gets plenty of speed to stalk.
2 – Jet G Amour – He won handily in South Dakota against a bunch of pets. That may suggest he’s back to his form from 2006. If that’s true, he stands a pretty decent shot at a win against this bunch.
4 – Wild Shifter – He went out on top last season when winning a stakes race here. He’s capable of getting a good stalking trip and likely grew up over the winter. In with a chance.

Race 3: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
8 – Sahan – 10 Minnesota bred maidens do battle here. None of these have run in 2008, so I’ll go with the one showing the best morning works. He showed a little talent at two last year and his works signal he’s matured. Worth a shot.
1 – Jestintime – This one showed the most talent last year and his works are just a cut below the top choice. He’ll go favored and could certainly win.
7 – Shergar’s Spirit – He also showed a little talent last year and the works a fair. If I had a dartboard I would have used that for this race. Plenty of value to be had in the dime super.

Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Motor Home – He’s been off since December, but he shows a nice 5 furlong work. Trainer Richie Scherer is 42% with horses off this kind of layoff. He’d be a surprise, but I’ll take a shot here.
1A – Nicandro – He’s run a couple of sharp ones recently in Grand Island and his form cycle suggests he should run well again. His career best speed figure came on this surface at this distance. You also get the 1 Unreal General and Jamie Ness is your trainer. All pluses.
4 – Wicked Pancho – This guy drops in class and returns to a track that he adores. He’s a career 9 for 12 in the money in Shakopee and I like his chances to make some noise in here.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Silver Wilbur – This one ran a solid 3rd in Phoenix against winners his last race. He should appreciate the drop back into the maiden ranks. He’s shown more ability than any of these and should win handily.
6 – Tahkodha Bill – This one broke my heart at 20-1 last season when he got caught late. He’s put in a couple of good works here and a good break could put him in the mix early.
3 – Grammas Golden Boy – He makes his career debut for Wally the Beerman after drilling a solid 4 furlongs on April 27. He has the same granddaddy as Barbaro. I’m not saying there is any comparison, but it is notable.
Race 6: 50,000 Shot of Gold Stakes, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Prospective Kiss – Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Derek Bell teams up with Mac Robertson on the horse with the best speed figure in the field. Did I mention they win 43% of the times they connect? It’s just not fair, and this one looks really strong in here.
2 – Seneca Summer – He won this race last year when the speed all backed up in front of him. I could envision a similar scenario this year as there appear to be plenty of speedballs to ding-dong on the lead early.
6 – Family Guy – Hey Lois, check this out: Keith Bennett has saddled 32% winners this year. This one would also benefit from blazing early fractions. There are definitely some things to like here. He’s probably the best late runner in the field.

Race 7: 18,000 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Bailey Road – There is a ton of speed in the sprint and none of these have shown any willingness to rate. This guy just ran a big one and looks primed to run well in here.
5 – Indian Hoss – He also fired a strong one last time out in Hot Springs. Derek Bell climbs aboard and should have this one in the mix early.
6 – Cinnamonsluckypic – I have a hard time trusting runners shipping in from Will Rogers Downs. That said, this one is as likely as any in here. I may be relegated to stalking the pace. If he can handle that, he could run past them all late. Paul Nolan gets the mount.

Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Alacazar – Minnesota bred girls square off and there are plenty that figure. This lady has been training well and is sent postward by 35% winning trainer Mike Kirby. He doesn’t have many horses in his barn, but he makes every start count. This could count a lot.
6 – Minnesota Mafia – She didn’t take to the Chicago slop last time and she’s the only one of these to put up a big girl Beyer. She also boasts a solid work over the local terrain. Rivera and Scherer win together at a 27% rate. Probably a favorite, but rightfully so.
10 – Minn E Scat – She’s shown some tactical speed in her career and could get a nice setup if the top two duel around the turn. The work last week was dull, but Bell’s presence offsets any concerns there.

Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Teenager – The opening day card comes to an end with a maiden claiming event for the ladies. While most of these have proven that they don’t now how to win, this one has yet to taste defeat. She’ll debut with Paul Nolan aboard and the works hint at some ability. She’s worth a shot in a wide open affair.
6 – Insureus – She broke sharply in her last before fading badly. Sprints at Canterbury tend to favor those that know how to get out of the gate. If she gets into stride quickly, she could run away from these and hide.
5 – Allthefrills – She didn’t run a step in her last, but showed a hint of talent two back. Plus, her efforts at Canterbury last season weren’t too back. Someone has to win this race…don’t they?

If you're at the track on Saturday, be on the lookout for my tipsheet. I'll place them throughout the facility, mainly on the 2nd level. If you find one and ended up here, please shoot me an e-mail to let me know where you found it so I can best place them throughout the season.