It's not high school football...it's Canterbury Park racing. Let's get right to it...
Race 1: 5,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
5 - Go Fast - He registered a gritty W in Phoenix last out while registering a career best speed figure. He draws Paul Nolan for his local debut and should get a fair trip in here. He's likely the best in this 5 interest field.
2 - Lookatme Afleet - He may not be the most logical, but he shows a nice work over the local surface while shipping in from Tampa for Jamie Ness. He exits a win in tampa going shorter. You also get the 2B Unreal General, so that's nice.
4 - Sheba's Charm - He won on opening day going two turns and may set the pace in this heat. The lead is always a nice place to be on this oval.
Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 3 1/2 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 - Special Occasion - MN bred baby girls debut in this race. Last year, a girl named AJ Bakes crushed in the first 2 yo race of the year and she's turned out to be pretty good. I like this animal's 4 furlong work leading up this debut. It's encouraging to see a horse this young put up a 48 and change time while training at a distance longer than the race.
1 - Dark Rosa - Nevada Litfin got a very strong work out of this girl on May 12. It's nice to see champion bloodlines including A.P. Indy on the sire's side. Litfin has hit with 25% of firsters in 2008 and with 21% of 2 year olds. Lots to like and should go favored.
3 - Black Ruby - After the top two, it basically comes down to choosing your favorite Ghazi offspring, as he has sired 3 of these. I'll take Ry Eikleberry's mount on a filly that has two decent works for Vic Hanson.
Race 3: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
7 - Shady Ghazi - This field is full of animals that have shown nothing. This one, however, has actually crossed the wire first, but was DQ'd. Eikleberry is off to a good start this meet and should find the winner's circly here, albeit at a very short price.
8 - Email Alert - In his one career start he ran 9th of 11, beated by 17 lengths. That said, hey had a great work on May 16 and adds blinkers. There's a chance.
3 - Not So Timeless - I honestly don't think his last effort was as bad as it looks. He beat nearly half the field on an off surface. He hows a good local work and drops further down the class ladder. Not likely to win, but he could round out the super or tri quite nicely.
Race 4: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile
6 - Silent Preacher - If this horse could consistently get a clean trip, he'd have much more that 1 win. He tries hard every time, but often just misses. He's 10 for 19 in the money at Shakopee and is as likely as any in this group.
1 - Senor Scat - This race appears to be light on speed, which could set up nicely for the Scat. He appears to show the best early speed and will be making his second trip off the layoff. If he gets alone on the lead, he'll be tough to catch.
4 - Jagan - He drops in for a tag for the firt time in his career. After a couple of dull efforts so far this season, he'll appreciate the class relief. He seemed to improve considerably in his third start last season. If he repeats that pattern, he could run by them all.
Race 5: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
8 - On Shaky Ground - He showed good speed in his local debut before being caught at the wire. He drops a bit in class, which should be enough to graduate in the contest.
6 - Donnofghazi - Derek Bell rides for Mac on this firster. He's shown some talent in the morning and could make some noise against this crop.
4 - Tony No Socks - He also showed some good speed before fading, thanks largely to a bad start. He's been close a couple of times and should be right there again.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
5 - Tricky Titan - If you are looking to get paid, this should be the race to try something crazy. This field of statebreds is evenly matched and mediocre. I'll try Tricky Titan who has fared well at this distance in the past. He also takes a considerable class drop after running poorly against allowance foes. He's as likely as any.
8 - Ghazarino - The connections are here to produce some magic. Mike Kirby has sent out 32% winners in 2008 and Adolfo Morales is a good jockey that is due to starting winning some races. He draws a good stalking post outside which should set him up with a good trip.
6 - Sir William E - This is another Derek Bell/Mac ride that confused me a bit. He won his debut in October against open company in Ohio. Then he shifted to the poly track in Florence where the competition was just too tough. Dropping him in here against statebreds could be just what the doctor ordered. I'll take a shot with this one.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 - Mizzcan'tbewrong - She blowed up an allowance field in Iowa when winning at 10-1. You won't get that price here, but a repeat of anything near her last would get her to pose for pictures again.
5 - Mego - She should be your favorite after her dominating victory two weeks ago. Lots to like, except the price.
1 - Catch a Star - She'll make her 2008 debut with D Bell aboard. Her works are average, but she is 3 for 7 on this surface which is reason enough to respect her in this short field. Plus, there is a lot of speed and she seems most likely to come charging late if the front runners tire at all.
Race 8: 4,000 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs
7 - Mining Gold - Let's see, there's a class drop and Ry Eikleberry and Justin Evans and a bullet work and the best last speed fig in the field, but then there's that pesky layoff. Hopefully the layoff is enough to inflate the price a little an this one looks like winner.
5 - Wicken Pancho - He closed strongly after breaking slowly on opening day. He's ripe to improve in his second trip off the layoff, so don't be surprised to see Mr. Smiley in the winner's circle.
1 - Tonys a Genius - He is 10 for 13 in the money in Shakopee. That should be reason enough to include him. The works are bit dull, but any animal that has that much success in one location demands attention.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claimings, 250 yards
7 - The Inclindenator - This filly debuts for Ed Ross Hardy and Tad Leggett. Those are formidable QH connections, folks.
8 - Cajun Eye Opener - She ships in from SoDak after just missing at odds-on. She shows a good work here two weeks back. Favorite.
3 - Jazzi Appeal - She has shown next to nothing in her three career starts at Remington. She shorten up in distance and shows the best morning work of the bunch.
Race 10: 5,800 Maiden Claimings, 330 yards
2 - Miss Ernie - Last seen at Arapahoe Park in 2006, this filly has taken some time to grow up. The mroning works are the best of the bunch and may suggest that this girl is ready to roll.
3 - Whirling Voodoo - He's been off for nearly a year, but boasts two rock solid morning works. So what if she's never finished better than 9th of 10? Ralph Haglund appears to have this one ready.
6 - Bills Glamour - She missed by less than a length in the Ft. Pierre Derby last time out. A repeat of that effort could result in a W.
That's how I see them tonight...
Friday, May 23, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Preakness weekend wrap
Alright, let's get the hyperbole out of the system early. Big Brown won in a well-compensated work in company. That's all that was. Despite being 12 horses deep, this has to be one of the saddest Preakness fields of all time. Speculation will be rampant about whether Big Brown can win the Triple Crown and whether he is actually this good or if the rest of his generation is just that bad. I lean more toward the latter on that one, but you can't take anything away from him. All he can do is beat who is willing to run against him...and that's exactly what he's done and done it impressively.
Big Brown wasn't the only horse to turn in an eye-popping effort this week. Do yourself a favor. Go here: http://www.netjamstv.com/canterbury/canterbury_report.htm and register if you have to, but watch the first race from Sunday. Something called Siphon R.N. popped the gate on a short field, set hot fractions and drew away by 24 lengths late. It was nearly Secretariat-esque, except it was a starter allowance race. I would look for this lady to have a very good season in Shakopee. You probably won't get a square price...ever...but she will likely make more trips to the winner's circle.
Canterbury has now run 7 racing programs which equates to roughly 10%. That's enough to draw some conclusions...maybe. Here are some statistics for your enjoyment...
Jockey Standings (Starts-wins-win percentage)
Derek Bell 43-10-23.3%
Paul Nolan 45-9-20%
Jason Lumpkins 43-7-16.3%
Dean Butler 41-6 14.6%
Jesse Garcia 23-4-17.4%
Scott Stevens 36-4-11.1%
Ry Eikleberry 11-4-36.4%
That's about what you would expect. Not Eikleberry's win percentage. He had a great winter at Turf Paradise and I expect him to have a great season here. He probably won't in at a 36% clip or put horses in the money at his current 55% clip, but you'll usually get a square price on an Eikleberry mount. Also of note, Manny Vazquez is 2 for 3 on the season. He'll also be riding some price horses.
Trainers
I'm not even going to bore you with the stats. Ness, Robertson and Evans are all winning at around 30% clips. No surprises there. Percy Sherbenske has won with 3 of 6 starters and Red Rarick has put 6 of 8 runners in the money, both of which are noteworthy.
Favorites
Favorites are 22 for 61 on the meet for a 36% winning percentage, which is only slighly above industry norms. When you break it down a little, some trends emerge.
Open Sprints 13 for 32 - 40.6%
Statebred Sprints 4 for 16 - 25%
Open Routes 4 for 11 - 36.4%
Statebred Routes 1 for 2 - 50%
Obviously the routes data is a bit slim, but open routes are holding true to form and statebreds offer insufficient data to draw any real conclusions. Sprints on the other hand, while collectively at 35% show some real differentiation between open company and Minnesota breds. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that most MN breds only run at Canterbury. Thus, it is hard to guage who is going to fire when first asked this season. As some of these get their second and thirds starts in on the season, I would expect to see more favorites winning. In the meantime, if you are looking for a good score, find the statebred sprints and find ways to beat the favorite.
This weekend brings us our first 4 day racing weekend which features the opening of the turf course on Saturday, the first baby race on Friday night and the return of the Canterbury Classic Wally's Choice. Yep, the 7 year old is back on the lawn on Saturday after missing all of last season with injury. It sure will be good to see the old guy back...plus Wally the Beerman is just really fun to root for...isn't he? Back later with Friday picks...
Big Brown wasn't the only horse to turn in an eye-popping effort this week. Do yourself a favor. Go here: http://www.netjamstv.com/canterbury/canterbury_report.htm and register if you have to, but watch the first race from Sunday. Something called Siphon R.N. popped the gate on a short field, set hot fractions and drew away by 24 lengths late. It was nearly Secretariat-esque, except it was a starter allowance race. I would look for this lady to have a very good season in Shakopee. You probably won't get a square price...ever...but she will likely make more trips to the winner's circle.
Canterbury has now run 7 racing programs which equates to roughly 10%. That's enough to draw some conclusions...maybe. Here are some statistics for your enjoyment...
Jockey Standings (Starts-wins-win percentage)
Derek Bell 43-10-23.3%
Paul Nolan 45-9-20%
Jason Lumpkins 43-7-16.3%
Dean Butler 41-6 14.6%
Jesse Garcia 23-4-17.4%
Scott Stevens 36-4-11.1%
Ry Eikleberry 11-4-36.4%
That's about what you would expect. Not Eikleberry's win percentage. He had a great winter at Turf Paradise and I expect him to have a great season here. He probably won't in at a 36% clip or put horses in the money at his current 55% clip, but you'll usually get a square price on an Eikleberry mount. Also of note, Manny Vazquez is 2 for 3 on the season. He'll also be riding some price horses.
Trainers
I'm not even going to bore you with the stats. Ness, Robertson and Evans are all winning at around 30% clips. No surprises there. Percy Sherbenske has won with 3 of 6 starters and Red Rarick has put 6 of 8 runners in the money, both of which are noteworthy.
Favorites
Favorites are 22 for 61 on the meet for a 36% winning percentage, which is only slighly above industry norms. When you break it down a little, some trends emerge.
Open Sprints 13 for 32 - 40.6%
Statebred Sprints 4 for 16 - 25%
Open Routes 4 for 11 - 36.4%
Statebred Routes 1 for 2 - 50%
Obviously the routes data is a bit slim, but open routes are holding true to form and statebreds offer insufficient data to draw any real conclusions. Sprints on the other hand, while collectively at 35% show some real differentiation between open company and Minnesota breds. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that most MN breds only run at Canterbury. Thus, it is hard to guage who is going to fire when first asked this season. As some of these get their second and thirds starts in on the season, I would expect to see more favorites winning. In the meantime, if you are looking for a good score, find the statebred sprints and find ways to beat the favorite.
This weekend brings us our first 4 day racing weekend which features the opening of the turf course on Saturday, the first baby race on Friday night and the return of the Canterbury Classic Wally's Choice. Yep, the 7 year old is back on the lawn on Saturday after missing all of last season with injury. It sure will be good to see the old guy back...plus Wally the Beerman is just really fun to root for...isn't he? Back later with Friday picks...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
The Freakness and Friday Night Racing
Tomorrow marks the return of the 7 pm post time in Shakopee. It has been a long, long offseason. I'm looking forward to my buck nights again next month, but I'll settle for tomorrow's post-dusk action. Saturday also brings leg two of the triple crown, where the infield festivities are lovingly referred to as the Freakness. Let's find some winners.
Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
2 Seismatic - We open the card with a short field of allowance sprinters. I'm not going to spend too much space on this one. The Ness/Nolan combination comes together with the best speed figures on the page. He's the chalk and should handle these.
3 Indian Hoss - Here's the best shot at an upset, but he'll be a short price too.
5 Parisian Friend - I like what I've seen from Jason Lumpkins this season. He lands here with the animal that appears to have the best gate speed. If he can shoot to the lead, he could spring the upset. Basically, I'd skip this race as there is no value to be had unless the unthinkable happens.
Race 2: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Filles and Mares
6 Officer Dont Shoot - This gal comes off a stamina builder when going a mile at Will Rogers Downs. She faded to third on that day, but I think that should give her the foundation to stay on when the favorite comes charging in the lane.
3 I'm the Mary - Here's your favorite. She brings a similar prep race into this one, except that she faded badly at Hawthorne, a track that tends to favor front runners. I'll take a stand against, but the Bell/Robertson tandem will be formidable.
4 Your Imagination - Can anyone explain to me how AP Espindola still gets the apprentice allowance? He's been an apprentice since I started coming to the races in 2005. One thing is for sure, you'll always get a price on an AP mount. The one won't win, but it stands a shot to round out a tri quite nicely in a short field.
Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 Payyourtax - This one ships in from Tampa, drops in class and shows a solid work out tab leading up to this one. Dean Butler has the mount and this one looks ready to roll in a big way.
6 Caleb Boy - He didn't run a step on opening day. He hasn't hit the board since 2006. He put in a 1 mile work on May 7 which should help get him in shape. Maybe he's done. Maybe he can hang with this at tall odds. I'm willing to take a chance.
4 Cookson - He comes off a win this March for Jamie Ness and Jason Lumpkins climbs aboard. Lots to like, but the price will be skinny.
Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 Innisbrook - He broke slowly a couple weeks ago, but rallied to miss by only a length and change. This group doesn't look too tough and if he gets away from the gate in good order, he should be set up for a W.
5 Strum Bum - The Bum comes back off short rest looking to improve. He's been known showing lightning quick early speed before fading down the stretch. He seemed to figure a few things out about winning last year. He had a nightmare trip last out, but he looks like the one to catch early, and that's a good place to be on this oval.
6 Ivans in a Tiz - He has every right to win this one, but he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct. I'd count on a minor share, though he has every right to run past them all late.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile 70 Yards
6 - Shergar's Spirit - He ran well when chasing the impressive effort of Sahan on opening day. A repeat of that effort should win this heat.
4 - Tugfire - He had some misadventures last year. He missed the break in his debut before rallying strongly late. Then he showed speed and faded in round 2, before showing speed and getting caught late in his third effort. He's working well which means he might be ready here.
5 - Youve Been Warned - He's been running well on the lawn in Phoenix, but he showed nothing here last season. Maybe he's just grown up. He's the logical pick on first glance, but there are enough questions to side elsewhere at this price.
Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Filles and Mares
7 Kayla Do - She's been running competitively against much better in Hot Springs. She hasn't won in a while, but with Bell riding for Robertson, it's going to happen soon...if not here.
1 Stop That Akki - Last time she did two turns she won. She should get a good stalking trip for Ness and Nolan. Class is a bit of question as others appear more accomplished, but she's worth a shot.
6 Rose Fever - She exits a gritty win in Chicago where she had to do battle on the lead and then hold off another foe. There are class questions here as well, but I think that last effort really shows her toughness.
Race 7: 10,000 Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs
1 Secret Fever - This one has put in four consecutive 3 furlong works at 35 seconds and change. That, folks, is some early quicks. The 7 year old is ripe to improve on with his third trip off the lay off. He's worth a shot.
7 Fizzy Pop - He's been working like a rock star, but he like to come from off the pace. That path doesn't often win at Canterbury. He wouldn't be a surprise, but I think he settles for lower prizes.
3 John Hennessy - Here is another Ness/Nolan charge that looks primed for a win. He switches out of turf sprints, but has every right to win this dirt duel anyway. The favorite.
Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
6 Cap Spring Squall - This guy has some nice morning works for 20% trainer Shawn Talbot. Sure, others seem more likely, but you get a great long shot jockey in Lori Keith aboard for what could be a very rewarding price. I'll give this one a whirl.
7 Marky P - This one looks like he should set the pace. He got caught late in his last at Tampa. If he gets clear, the rest might be running for 2nd place.
10 Pivot Pad - He takes a fat class drop here which may be just what he needs to cure his stretch fading problem. Softer company will help and a paycheck should be in order.
The Preakness
Really, there's no analysis here. Big Brown should win handily and he'll be 2-5ish. I think the pick 4 that ends on the Preakness might offer some value, but the 2nd leg is impossible. So, I'll probably pass on Preakness action.
Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
2 Seismatic - We open the card with a short field of allowance sprinters. I'm not going to spend too much space on this one. The Ness/Nolan combination comes together with the best speed figures on the page. He's the chalk and should handle these.
3 Indian Hoss - Here's the best shot at an upset, but he'll be a short price too.
5 Parisian Friend - I like what I've seen from Jason Lumpkins this season. He lands here with the animal that appears to have the best gate speed. If he can shoot to the lead, he could spring the upset. Basically, I'd skip this race as there is no value to be had unless the unthinkable happens.
Race 2: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Filles and Mares
6 Officer Dont Shoot - This gal comes off a stamina builder when going a mile at Will Rogers Downs. She faded to third on that day, but I think that should give her the foundation to stay on when the favorite comes charging in the lane.
3 I'm the Mary - Here's your favorite. She brings a similar prep race into this one, except that she faded badly at Hawthorne, a track that tends to favor front runners. I'll take a stand against, but the Bell/Robertson tandem will be formidable.
4 Your Imagination - Can anyone explain to me how AP Espindola still gets the apprentice allowance? He's been an apprentice since I started coming to the races in 2005. One thing is for sure, you'll always get a price on an AP mount. The one won't win, but it stands a shot to round out a tri quite nicely in a short field.
Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 Payyourtax - This one ships in from Tampa, drops in class and shows a solid work out tab leading up to this one. Dean Butler has the mount and this one looks ready to roll in a big way.
6 Caleb Boy - He didn't run a step on opening day. He hasn't hit the board since 2006. He put in a 1 mile work on May 7 which should help get him in shape. Maybe he's done. Maybe he can hang with this at tall odds. I'm willing to take a chance.
4 Cookson - He comes off a win this March for Jamie Ness and Jason Lumpkins climbs aboard. Lots to like, but the price will be skinny.
Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 Innisbrook - He broke slowly a couple weeks ago, but rallied to miss by only a length and change. This group doesn't look too tough and if he gets away from the gate in good order, he should be set up for a W.
5 Strum Bum - The Bum comes back off short rest looking to improve. He's been known showing lightning quick early speed before fading down the stretch. He seemed to figure a few things out about winning last year. He had a nightmare trip last out, but he looks like the one to catch early, and that's a good place to be on this oval.
6 Ivans in a Tiz - He has every right to win this one, but he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct. I'd count on a minor share, though he has every right to run past them all late.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile 70 Yards
6 - Shergar's Spirit - He ran well when chasing the impressive effort of Sahan on opening day. A repeat of that effort should win this heat.
4 - Tugfire - He had some misadventures last year. He missed the break in his debut before rallying strongly late. Then he showed speed and faded in round 2, before showing speed and getting caught late in his third effort. He's working well which means he might be ready here.
5 - Youve Been Warned - He's been running well on the lawn in Phoenix, but he showed nothing here last season. Maybe he's just grown up. He's the logical pick on first glance, but there are enough questions to side elsewhere at this price.
Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Filles and Mares
7 Kayla Do - She's been running competitively against much better in Hot Springs. She hasn't won in a while, but with Bell riding for Robertson, it's going to happen soon...if not here.
1 Stop That Akki - Last time she did two turns she won. She should get a good stalking trip for Ness and Nolan. Class is a bit of question as others appear more accomplished, but she's worth a shot.
6 Rose Fever - She exits a gritty win in Chicago where she had to do battle on the lead and then hold off another foe. There are class questions here as well, but I think that last effort really shows her toughness.
Race 7: 10,000 Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs
1 Secret Fever - This one has put in four consecutive 3 furlong works at 35 seconds and change. That, folks, is some early quicks. The 7 year old is ripe to improve on with his third trip off the lay off. He's worth a shot.
7 Fizzy Pop - He's been working like a rock star, but he like to come from off the pace. That path doesn't often win at Canterbury. He wouldn't be a surprise, but I think he settles for lower prizes.
3 John Hennessy - Here is another Ness/Nolan charge that looks primed for a win. He switches out of turf sprints, but has every right to win this dirt duel anyway. The favorite.
Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
6 Cap Spring Squall - This guy has some nice morning works for 20% trainer Shawn Talbot. Sure, others seem more likely, but you get a great long shot jockey in Lori Keith aboard for what could be a very rewarding price. I'll give this one a whirl.
7 Marky P - This one looks like he should set the pace. He got caught late in his last at Tampa. If he gets clear, the rest might be running for 2nd place.
10 Pivot Pad - He takes a fat class drop here which may be just what he needs to cure his stretch fading problem. Softer company will help and a paycheck should be in order.
The Preakness
Really, there's no analysis here. Big Brown should win handily and he'll be 2-5ish. I think the pick 4 that ends on the Preakness might offer some value, but the 2nd leg is impossible. So, I'll probably pass on Preakness action.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Derby Weekend Recap
So, that was the Derby...and the Oaks...and opening weekend. Whew. Let's look at what happened...
Oaks
As expected, Proud Spell surged clear through the stretch and proved much better than the rest. Somewhat surprisingly, Little Belle ran a big one to place while a bunch of logical fillies rounded out the exotics. I missed it all because I thought Little Belle was no better than the 4th best runner in the this field. Oh well, I had the winner...
Derby
Awesome. Big Brown broke from the parking lot, raced wide the whole way around and still won stylishly. It was one of the 5 greatest performances I've ever seen. That said, is he this good or is the rest of the field just that bad? Time will tell.
My derby bets were equally as atrocious as my Oaks bets, but I will say that the entire superfecta could have been made with my probables and maybes. That has to count for something...right? Okay, maybe not.
Canterbury
Here are some statistics regarding my selections for Canterbury's opening day card:
Top choice - 3 winners (33%), 1 place, 1 DQ'd from first to last, 1 scratch, 3 off the board.
Top 3 choices - 5 winners (56%) + 1 DQ'd from first to last
If I can consistently get my top choice home at a 33% (should be 44% w/DQ) clip, I'll be exceptionally happy. Yes, one of those winners was a very chalky favorite and the others were no worse than 3rd choices, but winners are winners.
I would say that Sahan ran the most visually impressive race of the day. He shot out of the gate and immediately put 2 on the field and never looked back. He looked really, really good. We'll see where he lands next.
In other news, the chaos of Derby day has left huge carryovers at Churchill for Wednesday. I'm not going to touch the Pick 6, but I may take a stab at the High 5. If I do, I'll post some thoughts here.
I'll put together a tipsheet for Saturday's card later in the week. I will actually be visiting Bay Meadows in lovely San Mateo, CA on Saturday and may post some picks for that card as well.
Oaks
As expected, Proud Spell surged clear through the stretch and proved much better than the rest. Somewhat surprisingly, Little Belle ran a big one to place while a bunch of logical fillies rounded out the exotics. I missed it all because I thought Little Belle was no better than the 4th best runner in the this field. Oh well, I had the winner...
Derby
Awesome. Big Brown broke from the parking lot, raced wide the whole way around and still won stylishly. It was one of the 5 greatest performances I've ever seen. That said, is he this good or is the rest of the field just that bad? Time will tell.
My derby bets were equally as atrocious as my Oaks bets, but I will say that the entire superfecta could have been made with my probables and maybes. That has to count for something...right? Okay, maybe not.
Canterbury
Here are some statistics regarding my selections for Canterbury's opening day card:
Top choice - 3 winners (33%), 1 place, 1 DQ'd from first to last, 1 scratch, 3 off the board.
Top 3 choices - 5 winners (56%) + 1 DQ'd from first to last
If I can consistently get my top choice home at a 33% (should be 44% w/DQ) clip, I'll be exceptionally happy. Yes, one of those winners was a very chalky favorite and the others were no worse than 3rd choices, but winners are winners.
I would say that Sahan ran the most visually impressive race of the day. He shot out of the gate and immediately put 2 on the field and never looked back. He looked really, really good. We'll see where he lands next.
In other news, the chaos of Derby day has left huge carryovers at Churchill for Wednesday. I'm not going to touch the Pick 6, but I may take a stab at the High 5. If I do, I'll post some thoughts here.
I'll put together a tipsheet for Saturday's card later in the week. I will actually be visiting Bay Meadows in lovely San Mateo, CA on Saturday and may post some picks for that card as well.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Kentucky Derby Thoughts, Picks & Plays
As I've mentioned previously, I am thoroughly confused by this year's derby. This crop of 3 year-olds appears to be the most lackluster that I have ever seen. Now bear in mind, I've only been intently following thoroughbreds since the summer of 2005, so I only have Babaro's and Curlin's classes for comparison purposes. That said, this group looks pretty soft. Anyway, let's take a look at the field in the following manner: Probables, Maybes, Unlikelies and Throw Outs...
Throw Outs:
3 Anak Nakal - This one hasn't run a step since November. Here's here by virtue of his graded stakes earnings at 2. I don't see how this one finishes anywhere near the top half.
7 Big Truck - I can forgive the clunker at Keeneland (this will become a theme), but his wins at Tampa were against fields filled with nothingburgers. Yeah, I know he beat War Pass in the Tampa Derby, but there was something wrong with War Pass. Plus, his reputation kept away many worthy runners. Big Truck benefitted from that, but he has no chance in here.
11 Z Humor - He's here thanks to a dead heat victory in the $1 million Delta Jackpot. Can we get this race ungraded? There is no way that winning at Delta Downs, a 5 furlong track, should qualify anyone for the derby. He's been a dully 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last three. I just don't see it.
15 Adriano - He has one start on the dirt and it was a dismal 9th. He looks better suited to the poly or turf. Yeah, I know Prado chose to ride him, but I think that has more to do with timing that actually preferring this one over others.
17 Cowboy Cal - Similar to Adriano in that his one start on dirt was a clunker. Mix in the fact that he's going to want the early lead and is far off the rail and you've got my pick to run dead last.
18 Recapturetheglory - I know he has the third highest Beyer in the field, but I can't believe that the Hawthorne merry-go-round is indicative of this colt's talent. I'm sure he's a good horse, but he's another early speed type and finds himself even further outside. He may be close early, but he'll fade badly through the stretch.
Unlikelies
1 Cool Coal Man - If you ignore the Keeneland debacle, this one looks like a horse that is peaking. He owns a win over this surface and has some stamina in his pedigree from Mineshaft/A.P. Indy. Still, he'll get buried by the collapsing wall of horses leaving the gate from the rail. I don't think it's going to happen.
8 Visionaire - He was one of the few to have some success in the Blue Grass, yet he still ran 5th. His win in the Gotham was hidden in the fog, but it is widely accepted that that field was awfully weak. Basically, he hasn't beaten much and seems to be a plodder. Like Imawildandcrazyguy last year, he could find the super late, but a win is very unlikely.
12 Smooth Air - He ran a decent second behind Big Brown and he would make for a nice story for trainer Bernie Stutts. That said, he was stricken with a fever early in the week and I'm not convinced that he's right. He's unlikely to be there at the end.
13 Bob Black Jack - He ran a gritty one in near the lead in the Santa Anita Derby before being nailed late by Colonel John. He also sports the best career Beyer of any of these with a 109 in the Sunshine Millions Dash in January. All that being said, his pedigree suggests he can't get 10 furlongs and he is going to want the lead early, which may be a death wish. He is the inside speed, but I can't see this happen.
14 Monba - He comes off a sharp win in the Blue Grass and he owns a win over the Churchill dirt. That said, I think he's best suited to the fake dirt. He will be saddled by Todd Pletcher, though he couldn't win this race last year when he had 5 starters. I think this one is best ignored.
Maybes
2 Tale of Ekati - Yeah, he won the Wood, but it was really, really slow. He tracked some hot fractions set by War Pass and just got up late. He should secure a good spot early and may get first run at the leaders. That said, I just don't think he's fast enough.
4 Court Vision - He should have shown more in the Wood with the pace in front of him. Even with the perfect set up he could only get to third. Mix in the amount of traffic he will have to weave through and I think he'll settle for a minor share at best. A perfect trip could get him home first, but it's not likely.
5 Eight Belles - The filly has handled her business against her own kind and gives the boys a shot. She'll have to track fractions that are much faster than she's used to. She might be good enough, but I don't know. I think there is just too much chaos in a race like this for her to win.
16 Denis of Cork - Before that clunker in the Illinois Derby, he was among the favorites to win this. Thanks to some late defectors, he still gets into the field. If he shows the turn of foot that he showed in the Southwest, he has a shot. I just don't know whether or not the Hawthorne bomb was fluke or a hint.
19 Gayego - He was lights out in winning the Arkansas Derby. However, he is both pedigree and post-challenged in this one. Prior to the post draw, I would have told you I like Gayego as a win candidate. He's going to have to gun it early from his post to get any sort of position at the first turn. There are too many obstacles here for me to be too optimistic.
Probables
6 Z Fortune - He, too, ran a monster one in the Arkansas Derby, missing by only 3 parts of a length while parked 4 wide the whole way around. He's all but guaranteed a better position when breaking from the 6th spot and appears to be geared up to run a big one. The price should be square, too.
9 Pyro - If you cross out the Blue Grass, Pyro appears to be rounding into sharp form. The fear is that he peaked early. I have altered my DRF PPs so that the Blue Grass isn't even on the page. If he repeats his Risen Star effort, he could best these.
10 Colonel John - He's handled everything that has been thrown at him out west. The concern is that he hasn't run on dirt yet. He should have put those concerns to bed with a sharp 57 and 4 drill over this surface. He's by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, so the distance won't be a problem
20 Big Brown - Your morning line favorite is going to need a GPS to find the rail from his post. He's inexperienced, but the show he put on in the Florida Derby was too impressive to ignore. Is he better than Curlin? That one ran third in this race last year. He rates a good chance, but he has a lot to overcome.
So, that's the field. How will they finish?
1. Colonel John
2. Z Fortune
3. Pyro
4. Court Vision
Well, that's how I see it. How am I going to play it?
$20 win on #6 - Z Fortune
$1 tri 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,16,20 = $8
$1 super 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,20 w/ 4,5,6,9,16,19,20 = $30
$1 exacta box 4,6,9,10,16 = $20
$78 is more than I would ever spend on any other race, but this is the derby and the pools will be huge. Obviously, to get value out of these I'm going to need Z Fortune to run the race of his life. I think he can do it, but I have no illusions that I have any idea who will win this. If you have a strong feeling, don't be afraid to play it.
Throw Outs:
3 Anak Nakal - This one hasn't run a step since November. Here's here by virtue of his graded stakes earnings at 2. I don't see how this one finishes anywhere near the top half.
7 Big Truck - I can forgive the clunker at Keeneland (this will become a theme), but his wins at Tampa were against fields filled with nothingburgers. Yeah, I know he beat War Pass in the Tampa Derby, but there was something wrong with War Pass. Plus, his reputation kept away many worthy runners. Big Truck benefitted from that, but he has no chance in here.
11 Z Humor - He's here thanks to a dead heat victory in the $1 million Delta Jackpot. Can we get this race ungraded? There is no way that winning at Delta Downs, a 5 furlong track, should qualify anyone for the derby. He's been a dully 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last three. I just don't see it.
15 Adriano - He has one start on the dirt and it was a dismal 9th. He looks better suited to the poly or turf. Yeah, I know Prado chose to ride him, but I think that has more to do with timing that actually preferring this one over others.
17 Cowboy Cal - Similar to Adriano in that his one start on dirt was a clunker. Mix in the fact that he's going to want the early lead and is far off the rail and you've got my pick to run dead last.
18 Recapturetheglory - I know he has the third highest Beyer in the field, but I can't believe that the Hawthorne merry-go-round is indicative of this colt's talent. I'm sure he's a good horse, but he's another early speed type and finds himself even further outside. He may be close early, but he'll fade badly through the stretch.
Unlikelies
1 Cool Coal Man - If you ignore the Keeneland debacle, this one looks like a horse that is peaking. He owns a win over this surface and has some stamina in his pedigree from Mineshaft/A.P. Indy. Still, he'll get buried by the collapsing wall of horses leaving the gate from the rail. I don't think it's going to happen.
8 Visionaire - He was one of the few to have some success in the Blue Grass, yet he still ran 5th. His win in the Gotham was hidden in the fog, but it is widely accepted that that field was awfully weak. Basically, he hasn't beaten much and seems to be a plodder. Like Imawildandcrazyguy last year, he could find the super late, but a win is very unlikely.
12 Smooth Air - He ran a decent second behind Big Brown and he would make for a nice story for trainer Bernie Stutts. That said, he was stricken with a fever early in the week and I'm not convinced that he's right. He's unlikely to be there at the end.
13 Bob Black Jack - He ran a gritty one in near the lead in the Santa Anita Derby before being nailed late by Colonel John. He also sports the best career Beyer of any of these with a 109 in the Sunshine Millions Dash in January. All that being said, his pedigree suggests he can't get 10 furlongs and he is going to want the lead early, which may be a death wish. He is the inside speed, but I can't see this happen.
14 Monba - He comes off a sharp win in the Blue Grass and he owns a win over the Churchill dirt. That said, I think he's best suited to the fake dirt. He will be saddled by Todd Pletcher, though he couldn't win this race last year when he had 5 starters. I think this one is best ignored.
Maybes
2 Tale of Ekati - Yeah, he won the Wood, but it was really, really slow. He tracked some hot fractions set by War Pass and just got up late. He should secure a good spot early and may get first run at the leaders. That said, I just don't think he's fast enough.
4 Court Vision - He should have shown more in the Wood with the pace in front of him. Even with the perfect set up he could only get to third. Mix in the amount of traffic he will have to weave through and I think he'll settle for a minor share at best. A perfect trip could get him home first, but it's not likely.
5 Eight Belles - The filly has handled her business against her own kind and gives the boys a shot. She'll have to track fractions that are much faster than she's used to. She might be good enough, but I don't know. I think there is just too much chaos in a race like this for her to win.
16 Denis of Cork - Before that clunker in the Illinois Derby, he was among the favorites to win this. Thanks to some late defectors, he still gets into the field. If he shows the turn of foot that he showed in the Southwest, he has a shot. I just don't know whether or not the Hawthorne bomb was fluke or a hint.
19 Gayego - He was lights out in winning the Arkansas Derby. However, he is both pedigree and post-challenged in this one. Prior to the post draw, I would have told you I like Gayego as a win candidate. He's going to have to gun it early from his post to get any sort of position at the first turn. There are too many obstacles here for me to be too optimistic.
Probables
6 Z Fortune - He, too, ran a monster one in the Arkansas Derby, missing by only 3 parts of a length while parked 4 wide the whole way around. He's all but guaranteed a better position when breaking from the 6th spot and appears to be geared up to run a big one. The price should be square, too.
9 Pyro - If you cross out the Blue Grass, Pyro appears to be rounding into sharp form. The fear is that he peaked early. I have altered my DRF PPs so that the Blue Grass isn't even on the page. If he repeats his Risen Star effort, he could best these.
10 Colonel John - He's handled everything that has been thrown at him out west. The concern is that he hasn't run on dirt yet. He should have put those concerns to bed with a sharp 57 and 4 drill over this surface. He's by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, so the distance won't be a problem
20 Big Brown - Your morning line favorite is going to need a GPS to find the rail from his post. He's inexperienced, but the show he put on in the Florida Derby was too impressive to ignore. Is he better than Curlin? That one ran third in this race last year. He rates a good chance, but he has a lot to overcome.
So, that's the field. How will they finish?
1. Colonel John
2. Z Fortune
3. Pyro
4. Court Vision
Well, that's how I see it. How am I going to play it?
$20 win on #6 - Z Fortune
$1 tri 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,16,20 = $8
$1 super 10 w/ 6,9 w/ 4,6,9,20 w/ 4,5,6,9,16,19,20 = $30
$1 exacta box 4,6,9,10,16 = $20
$78 is more than I would ever spend on any other race, but this is the derby and the pools will be huge. Obviously, to get value out of these I'm going to need Z Fortune to run the race of his life. I think he can do it, but I have no illusions that I have any idea who will win this. If you have a strong feeling, don't be afraid to play it.
Canterbury Opening Day Picks
After a long wait, the Canterbury meet starts on Saturday. Rumor has it there is racing elsewhere in the country that day, but let's stick to what's important. The card has a few races with short fields, but the Minnesota-bred races are full of intrigue. Most of these animals haven't run since last season, so picking winners may as well entail the use of a dartboard. Anyway, I found handicapping this entire card a lot easier than trying to put my thoughts together about the derby. I'll be back later tonight with my derby thoughts. Anyway, on to the picks.
Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
7 – Dark Indulgence – The 2008 season kicks of with a claimer. This fella has shown an affinity for the Canterbury dirt and had some of his best efforts at this distance last year. He’s warmed up with three fair efforts at Fonner and could take the lid lifter.
6 – Shoebootie – This one drops out of starter allowance company at Fonner and could loom a large threat to the top choice. He hasn’t shown the killer instinct needed to win lately, but he should get a share.
3 – Sheba’s Charm – This one was awful the last time he was at the races. That said, he gets one of my favorite sneaky good jockeys in Dean Butler. He’s also put together a series of steadily improving works over this surface. Not likely, but possible.
Race 2: 18,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Vanilla Scoop – This one has so many things going for it. Derek Bell rides for Mac Robertson and he has the best last race of the bunch, despite running 6th against much better. To boot, he gets plenty of speed to stalk.
2 – Jet G Amour – He won handily in South Dakota against a bunch of pets. That may suggest he’s back to his form from 2006. If that’s true, he stands a pretty decent shot at a win against this bunch.
4 – Wild Shifter – He went out on top last season when winning a stakes race here. He’s capable of getting a good stalking trip and likely grew up over the winter. In with a chance.
Race 3: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
8 – Sahan – 10 Minnesota bred maidens do battle here. None of these have run in 2008, so I’ll go with the one showing the best morning works. He showed a little talent at two last year and his works signal he’s matured. Worth a shot.
1 – Jestintime – This one showed the most talent last year and his works are just a cut below the top choice. He’ll go favored and could certainly win.
7 – Shergar’s Spirit – He also showed a little talent last year and the works a fair. If I had a dartboard I would have used that for this race. Plenty of value to be had in the dime super.
Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Motor Home – He’s been off since December, but he shows a nice 5 furlong work. Trainer Richie Scherer is 42% with horses off this kind of layoff. He’d be a surprise, but I’ll take a shot here.
1A – Nicandro – He’s run a couple of sharp ones recently in Grand Island and his form cycle suggests he should run well again. His career best speed figure came on this surface at this distance. You also get the 1 Unreal General and Jamie Ness is your trainer. All pluses.
4 – Wicked Pancho – This guy drops in class and returns to a track that he adores. He’s a career 9 for 12 in the money in Shakopee and I like his chances to make some noise in here.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Silver Wilbur – This one ran a solid 3rd in Phoenix against winners his last race. He should appreciate the drop back into the maiden ranks. He’s shown more ability than any of these and should win handily.
6 – Tahkodha Bill – This one broke my heart at 20-1 last season when he got caught late. He’s put in a couple of good works here and a good break could put him in the mix early.
3 – Grammas Golden Boy – He makes his career debut for Wally the Beerman after drilling a solid 4 furlongs on April 27. He has the same granddaddy as Barbaro. I’m not saying there is any comparison, but it is notable.
Race 6: 50,000 Shot of Gold Stakes, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Prospective Kiss – Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Derek Bell teams up with Mac Robertson on the horse with the best speed figure in the field. Did I mention they win 43% of the times they connect? It’s just not fair, and this one looks really strong in here.
2 – Seneca Summer – He won this race last year when the speed all backed up in front of him. I could envision a similar scenario this year as there appear to be plenty of speedballs to ding-dong on the lead early.
6 – Family Guy – Hey Lois, check this out: Keith Bennett has saddled 32% winners this year. This one would also benefit from blazing early fractions. There are definitely some things to like here. He’s probably the best late runner in the field.
Race 7: 18,000 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Bailey Road – There is a ton of speed in the sprint and none of these have shown any willingness to rate. This guy just ran a big one and looks primed to run well in here.
5 – Indian Hoss – He also fired a strong one last time out in Hot Springs. Derek Bell climbs aboard and should have this one in the mix early.
6 – Cinnamonsluckypic – I have a hard time trusting runners shipping in from Will Rogers Downs. That said, this one is as likely as any in here. I may be relegated to stalking the pace. If he can handle that, he could run past them all late. Paul Nolan gets the mount.
Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Alacazar – Minnesota bred girls square off and there are plenty that figure. This lady has been training well and is sent postward by 35% winning trainer Mike Kirby. He doesn’t have many horses in his barn, but he makes every start count. This could count a lot.
6 – Minnesota Mafia – She didn’t take to the Chicago slop last time and she’s the only one of these to put up a big girl Beyer. She also boasts a solid work over the local terrain. Rivera and Scherer win together at a 27% rate. Probably a favorite, but rightfully so.
10 – Minn E Scat – She’s shown some tactical speed in her career and could get a nice setup if the top two duel around the turn. The work last week was dull, but Bell’s presence offsets any concerns there.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Teenager – The opening day card comes to an end with a maiden claiming event for the ladies. While most of these have proven that they don’t now how to win, this one has yet to taste defeat. She’ll debut with Paul Nolan aboard and the works hint at some ability. She’s worth a shot in a wide open affair.
6 – Insureus – She broke sharply in her last before fading badly. Sprints at Canterbury tend to favor those that know how to get out of the gate. If she gets into stride quickly, she could run away from these and hide.
5 – Allthefrills – She didn’t run a step in her last, but showed a hint of talent two back. Plus, her efforts at Canterbury last season weren’t too back. Someone has to win this race…don’t they?
If you're at the track on Saturday, be on the lookout for my tipsheet. I'll place them throughout the facility, mainly on the 2nd level. If you find one and ended up here, please shoot me an e-mail to let me know where you found it so I can best place them throughout the season.
Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
7 – Dark Indulgence – The 2008 season kicks of with a claimer. This fella has shown an affinity for the Canterbury dirt and had some of his best efforts at this distance last year. He’s warmed up with three fair efforts at Fonner and could take the lid lifter.
6 – Shoebootie – This one drops out of starter allowance company at Fonner and could loom a large threat to the top choice. He hasn’t shown the killer instinct needed to win lately, but he should get a share.
3 – Sheba’s Charm – This one was awful the last time he was at the races. That said, he gets one of my favorite sneaky good jockeys in Dean Butler. He’s also put together a series of steadily improving works over this surface. Not likely, but possible.
Race 2: 18,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Vanilla Scoop – This one has so many things going for it. Derek Bell rides for Mac Robertson and he has the best last race of the bunch, despite running 6th against much better. To boot, he gets plenty of speed to stalk.
2 – Jet G Amour – He won handily in South Dakota against a bunch of pets. That may suggest he’s back to his form from 2006. If that’s true, he stands a pretty decent shot at a win against this bunch.
4 – Wild Shifter – He went out on top last season when winning a stakes race here. He’s capable of getting a good stalking trip and likely grew up over the winter. In with a chance.
Race 3: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
8 – Sahan – 10 Minnesota bred maidens do battle here. None of these have run in 2008, so I’ll go with the one showing the best morning works. He showed a little talent at two last year and his works signal he’s matured. Worth a shot.
1 – Jestintime – This one showed the most talent last year and his works are just a cut below the top choice. He’ll go favored and could certainly win.
7 – Shergar’s Spirit – He also showed a little talent last year and the works a fair. If I had a dartboard I would have used that for this race. Plenty of value to be had in the dime super.
Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Motor Home – He’s been off since December, but he shows a nice 5 furlong work. Trainer Richie Scherer is 42% with horses off this kind of layoff. He’d be a surprise, but I’ll take a shot here.
1A – Nicandro – He’s run a couple of sharp ones recently in Grand Island and his form cycle suggests he should run well again. His career best speed figure came on this surface at this distance. You also get the 1 Unreal General and Jamie Ness is your trainer. All pluses.
4 – Wicked Pancho – This guy drops in class and returns to a track that he adores. He’s a career 9 for 12 in the money in Shakopee and I like his chances to make some noise in here.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Silver Wilbur – This one ran a solid 3rd in Phoenix against winners his last race. He should appreciate the drop back into the maiden ranks. He’s shown more ability than any of these and should win handily.
6 – Tahkodha Bill – This one broke my heart at 20-1 last season when he got caught late. He’s put in a couple of good works here and a good break could put him in the mix early.
3 – Grammas Golden Boy – He makes his career debut for Wally the Beerman after drilling a solid 4 furlongs on April 27. He has the same granddaddy as Barbaro. I’m not saying there is any comparison, but it is notable.
Race 6: 50,000 Shot of Gold Stakes, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Prospective Kiss – Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Derek Bell teams up with Mac Robertson on the horse with the best speed figure in the field. Did I mention they win 43% of the times they connect? It’s just not fair, and this one looks really strong in here.
2 – Seneca Summer – He won this race last year when the speed all backed up in front of him. I could envision a similar scenario this year as there appear to be plenty of speedballs to ding-dong on the lead early.
6 – Family Guy – Hey Lois, check this out: Keith Bennett has saddled 32% winners this year. This one would also benefit from blazing early fractions. There are definitely some things to like here. He’s probably the best late runner in the field.
Race 7: 18,000 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Bailey Road – There is a ton of speed in the sprint and none of these have shown any willingness to rate. This guy just ran a big one and looks primed to run well in here.
5 – Indian Hoss – He also fired a strong one last time out in Hot Springs. Derek Bell climbs aboard and should have this one in the mix early.
6 – Cinnamonsluckypic – I have a hard time trusting runners shipping in from Will Rogers Downs. That said, this one is as likely as any in here. I may be relegated to stalking the pace. If he can handle that, he could run past them all late. Paul Nolan gets the mount.
Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Alacazar – Minnesota bred girls square off and there are plenty that figure. This lady has been training well and is sent postward by 35% winning trainer Mike Kirby. He doesn’t have many horses in his barn, but he makes every start count. This could count a lot.
6 – Minnesota Mafia – She didn’t take to the Chicago slop last time and she’s the only one of these to put up a big girl Beyer. She also boasts a solid work over the local terrain. Rivera and Scherer win together at a 27% rate. Probably a favorite, but rightfully so.
10 – Minn E Scat – She’s shown some tactical speed in her career and could get a nice setup if the top two duel around the turn. The work last week was dull, but Bell’s presence offsets any concerns there.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Teenager – The opening day card comes to an end with a maiden claiming event for the ladies. While most of these have proven that they don’t now how to win, this one has yet to taste defeat. She’ll debut with Paul Nolan aboard and the works hint at some ability. She’s worth a shot in a wide open affair.
6 – Insureus – She broke sharply in her last before fading badly. Sprints at Canterbury tend to favor those that know how to get out of the gate. If she gets into stride quickly, she could run away from these and hide.
5 – Allthefrills – She didn’t run a step in her last, but showed a hint of talent two back. Plus, her efforts at Canterbury last season weren’t too back. Someone has to win this race…don’t they?
If you're at the track on Saturday, be on the lookout for my tipsheet. I'll place them throughout the facility, mainly on the 2nd level. If you find one and ended up here, please shoot me an e-mail to let me know where you found it so I can best place them throughout the season.
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