Oaks Day Preview

Somewhat lost amongst the buzz of the Derby is the collection of talented fillies set to do battle in the 134th running of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. While the Derby rightfully gets all the pub, I prefer the Oaks as a betting race. You see, I'm a budget horseplayer and I can't afford to throw $200-$300 at the Derby superfecta in hopes of hitting it. With the Oaks, things tend to be a bit more formful on the top end and you can mix in some longshots and get paid on a $20ish super ticket.

After giving us Rags to Riches last year, this year's Oaks features some potential stars, though the best of them will run with the boys on Saturday. This year's Oaks will also offer us a shot to play the new Super High 5 wager, where you pick the first 5 finishers in the race. Also of note is the Oaks/Derby double. Anyway, in looking over the card, I've decided to play the pick 4 that ends with the Oaks and a couple wagers within the Oaks. Without further jibber-jabber, let's get to the races.

Race 7: 150,000 Edgewood Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on the turf, fillies
5 Gypsy Baby - This filly comes out of a sharp effort in an allowance race at Keeneland. In only her second start stateside, she rallied late and missed only by a neck. In her third start off the lay-off, she's liable to improve. She'll need to improve, but she could find the winner's circle at a decent price.
6 Grace and Power - She should go favored despite not seeing the races since December. It is of note that she ran second to Country Star in her last effort. The works suggest she's ready off the bread and trainer Steve Klesaris is 26% with animals off a 60+ day layoff. On paper she's the one to beat, but the lack of recent racing concerns me a bit. Still, she stands a very good chance.
8 My Baby Baby - On the exact opposite end of the recency spectrum we have this one. She's raced 5 times since January and seems to be showing a rather obvious form cycle. Her first three starts each showed improvement, then she dropped a bit in her fourth start. Her last effort was better and the pattern tends to suggest that she'll move forward again. A repeat of her February 16 effort at Tampa should be good enough to win against this bunch.

Race 8: Grade 3 Alysheba, 1 1/16 miles on dirt
6 Chelokee - Lots of animals to like in this one, but I'll take everyone's favorite horse that was excluded from last year's derby. Chelokee was a common pick among people leading up to the derby, but he just didn't have the earnings. Since then, what has he done? Three straight wins, that's all. The bullets work on April 25 just adds to the appeal.
4 Prom Shoes - This race appears to have plenty of speed types, but only one true closer. Despite having a name that should belong to a filly, the colt comes off a gritty win at Oaklawn. If the top flight backs up, he should be there to capitalize.
3 Magna Graduate - I was on the rail at Oaklawn last March when this guy jogged away in victory in the Razorback. He was in fantastic form back then. Now? He's still putting up big Beyers, but he can't break through. I'm not going to use him, but you have to respect him.

Race 9: Grade 3 Crown Royal American Turf, 1 1/16 miles on turf
8 Prussian - I'm a huge fan of Crown Royal and Otto Von Bismarck...the latter was a Prussia, the former is the race's sponser. Anyway the angle her is quite simple. Every time this guy has run on firm turf he's won, including the G3 Summer stakes at Woodbine last fall. He ran a fair rain on the poly last time. I think the firm turf would send him home a winner.
10 Boss Lafitte - This guy beat my top choice home in their last race and he figures to be the beneficiary if the speed tires. He made up a ton of ground at Fair Grounds in March to miss by only a length.
2 Nistle's Crunch - After hanging close to Big Brown through the first half of the Florida Derby, this guy faded badly to finish 7th. He ran a sharp one of the turf last out and looks primed for a peak effort here. As note, the last effort in graded stakes company didn't go so well, but he may have found his niche on the lawn.

Race 10: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 1 1/8 miles on dirt, fillies
8 Proud Spell - Since Eight Belles will scratch out, Proud Spell becomes the strong choice. Throw out that clunker at Keeneland and you've got a clear cut favorite. She's the only horse to beat the 2 year old champion filly Indian Blessing. Really, I don't have much to add. She'll be a short price, but she should be good for it.
11 Pure Clan - She spent her spring chasing Eight Belles home. How good is this one? There are plenty of things to like here and she's a perfect 2 for 2 at Churchill. I don't think she can beat my top choice, but I wouldn't be shocked if she did.
10 Bsharpsonata - She recently won four straight stakes and missed by a neck in the Ashland. The two above are a cut above the rest, but this one is solid number 3. With some bad luck above, this one could find her way home first...but she'll need some help.
5 Rasierra - Yeah, she's 50-1 on the morning line and broke her maiden in Iowa...oh yeah, and she was fifth in a stakes at Canterbury. That said, I like that effort when running second in her last. She won't win this, but she could hit the ticket and juice the super and/or high 5.

With all that said, here are the plays I'll be making on Friday
$1 pick 4 beginning race 7: 5,6,8 w/6 w/2,8,9,10 w/8 = $12
$1 Trifecta race 10: 8 w/ 10, 11 w/1,3,6,7,10,11 = $10
$1 Superfecta race 10: 8 w/ 10,11 w/ 7,10,11 w/ 1,3,5,6,7,10,11 = $20
$1 Super High 5 (why not?) race 10: 8 w/ 11 w/ 10 w/ 1,3,5,6,7 w/ 1,3,5,6,7 = $20

That's $62 worth of plays for Oaks day. I'll probably make a few other bets throughout the day, but the picks above are certainties.

As mentioned before, I'll be back tomorrow and/or Friday with more derby day thoughts and picks.