Oaks Day Preview

Somewhat lost amongst the buzz of the Derby is the collection of talented fillies set to do battle in the 134th running of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. While the Derby rightfully gets all the pub, I prefer the Oaks as a betting race. You see, I'm a budget horseplayer and I can't afford to throw $200-$300 at the Derby superfecta in hopes of hitting it. With the Oaks, things tend to be a bit more formful on the top end and you can mix in some longshots and get paid on a $20ish super ticket.

After giving us Rags to Riches last year, this year's Oaks features some potential stars, though the best of them will run with the boys on Saturday. This year's Oaks will also offer us a shot to play the new Super High 5 wager, where you pick the first 5 finishers in the race. Also of note is the Oaks/Derby double. Anyway, in looking over the card, I've decided to play the pick 4 that ends with the Oaks and a couple wagers within the Oaks. Without further jibber-jabber, let's get to the races.

Race 7: 150,000 Edgewood Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on the turf, fillies
5 Gypsy Baby - This filly comes out of a sharp effort in an allowance race at Keeneland. In only her second start stateside, she rallied late and missed only by a neck. In her third start off the lay-off, she's liable to improve. She'll need to improve, but she could find the winner's circle at a decent price.
6 Grace and Power - She should go favored despite not seeing the races since December. It is of note that she ran second to Country Star in her last effort. The works suggest she's ready off the bread and trainer Steve Klesaris is 26% with animals off a 60+ day layoff. On paper she's the one to beat, but the lack of recent racing concerns me a bit. Still, she stands a very good chance.
8 My Baby Baby - On the exact opposite end of the recency spectrum we have this one. She's raced 5 times since January and seems to be showing a rather obvious form cycle. Her first three starts each showed improvement, then she dropped a bit in her fourth start. Her last effort was better and the pattern tends to suggest that she'll move forward again. A repeat of her February 16 effort at Tampa should be good enough to win against this bunch.

Race 8: Grade 3 Alysheba, 1 1/16 miles on dirt
6 Chelokee - Lots of animals to like in this one, but I'll take everyone's favorite horse that was excluded from last year's derby. Chelokee was a common pick among people leading up to the derby, but he just didn't have the earnings. Since then, what has he done? Three straight wins, that's all. The bullets work on April 25 just adds to the appeal.
4 Prom Shoes - This race appears to have plenty of speed types, but only one true closer. Despite having a name that should belong to a filly, the colt comes off a gritty win at Oaklawn. If the top flight backs up, he should be there to capitalize.
3 Magna Graduate - I was on the rail at Oaklawn last March when this guy jogged away in victory in the Razorback. He was in fantastic form back then. Now? He's still putting up big Beyers, but he can't break through. I'm not going to use him, but you have to respect him.

Race 9: Grade 3 Crown Royal American Turf, 1 1/16 miles on turf
8 Prussian - I'm a huge fan of Crown Royal and Otto Von Bismarck...the latter was a Prussia, the former is the race's sponser. Anyway the angle her is quite simple. Every time this guy has run on firm turf he's won, including the G3 Summer stakes at Woodbine last fall. He ran a fair rain on the poly last time. I think the firm turf would send him home a winner.
10 Boss Lafitte - This guy beat my top choice home in their last race and he figures to be the beneficiary if the speed tires. He made up a ton of ground at Fair Grounds in March to miss by only a length.
2 Nistle's Crunch - After hanging close to Big Brown through the first half of the Florida Derby, this guy faded badly to finish 7th. He ran a sharp one of the turf last out and looks primed for a peak effort here. As note, the last effort in graded stakes company didn't go so well, but he may have found his niche on the lawn.

Race 10: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 1 1/8 miles on dirt, fillies
8 Proud Spell - Since Eight Belles will scratch out, Proud Spell becomes the strong choice. Throw out that clunker at Keeneland and you've got a clear cut favorite. She's the only horse to beat the 2 year old champion filly Indian Blessing. Really, I don't have much to add. She'll be a short price, but she should be good for it.
11 Pure Clan - She spent her spring chasing Eight Belles home. How good is this one? There are plenty of things to like here and she's a perfect 2 for 2 at Churchill. I don't think she can beat my top choice, but I wouldn't be shocked if she did.
10 Bsharpsonata - She recently won four straight stakes and missed by a neck in the Ashland. The two above are a cut above the rest, but this one is solid number 3. With some bad luck above, this one could find her way home first...but she'll need some help.
5 Rasierra - Yeah, she's 50-1 on the morning line and broke her maiden in Iowa...oh yeah, and she was fifth in a stakes at Canterbury. That said, I like that effort when running second in her last. She won't win this, but she could hit the ticket and juice the super and/or high 5.

With all that said, here are the plays I'll be making on Friday
$1 pick 4 beginning race 7: 5,6,8 w/6 w/2,8,9,10 w/8 = $12
$1 Trifecta race 10: 8 w/ 10, 11 w/1,3,6,7,10,11 = $10
$1 Superfecta race 10: 8 w/ 10,11 w/ 7,10,11 w/ 1,3,5,6,7,10,11 = $20
$1 Super High 5 (why not?) race 10: 8 w/ 11 w/ 10 w/ 1,3,5,6,7 w/ 1,3,5,6,7 = $20

That's $62 worth of plays for Oaks day. I'll probably make a few other bets throughout the day, but the picks above are certainties.

As mentioned before, I'll be back tomorrow and/or Friday with more derby day thoughts and picks.

The Derby - in 2 words or less...

Alright, this Derby is the muddiest I've ever seen...and that's not counting the possibility of actual mud for the race. There are 8-10 of these animals that could win and I wouldn't be surprised. The post draw happened about an hour ago and it helps clear a few things up. I plan to look things over intently tonight and post my full derby thoughts tomorrow. I'll also get my picks for the opening day card at Canterbury posted tomorrow or Friday as well. Anyway, here's the field, articulated in 2 words or less...

Post Horse - Jockey
1. Cool Coal Man - Julien Leparoux -Likes dirt
2. Tale of Ekati - Eibar Coa - Slow time
3. Anak Nakal - Rafael Bejarano - No business
4. Court Vision - Garrett Gomez - In blinkers?
5. Eight Belles - Gabriel Saez - The girl
6. Z Fortune - Robby Albarado - Peaking?
7. Big Truck - Javier Castellano - Small Chance
8. Visionaire - Jose Lezcano - Fog?
9. Pyro - Shaun Bridgmohan - Hates poly
10. Colonel John - Corey Nakatani - The favorite
11. Z Humor - Rene Douglas - Just awful
12. Smooth Air - Manoel Cruz - Sentimental choice
13. Bob Black Jack - Richard Migliore - Will bust
14. Monba - Ramon Dominguez - Pletcher's hope
15. Adriano - Edgar Prado - Hates dirt?
16. Denis of Cork - Calvin Borel - Jockey repeat?
17. Cowboy Cal - John Valazquez - Needs lead
18. Recapturetheglory - E.T. Baird - Cheap speed
19. Gayego - Mike Smith - Too wide
20. Big Brown - Kent Desomeaux - Needs GPS

I'll delve into some of these comments tomorrow and provide my full analysis. Until then, post your picks below...

Winter Happenings

It's 40 degrees outside and the weatherman is only forecasting 4-8 inches of snow for the weekend. It must be springtime. I've left the blog dormant since the Breeders Cup because I just didn't have much to say. Let's briefly recap what happened since my last post in October.

1) I dominated the Breeeders Cup.
You can see the picks. They've been posted there for months. There were 11 races and my final tally looked something like this:
Winners: 3
Places: 4
Shows: 1
Off-the-board: 3

Yeah, that's 27% winners and 73% on the board. That said, my betting was totally awful. I think I came home broke, save for the $10 win-place ticket I had on Curlin. Eh, it wasn't awful.

2) Curlin is pretty good.
So, did you see that effort in Dubai? In a word: Sick. Those are the best horses in the world and he ran past them all as if he was out for a jog. It's a shame that he didn't get an earlier start to his career, otherwise we may have had our Triple Crown winner last year.

3) Have ponies? Will travel.
The Canterbury Kid got his travel on over the fall/winter. In my quest to visit as many tracks as possible, I hit up the facilities at Remington and Retama last October, Oaklawn this March and Hawthorne last weekend. There are future plans to visit Prairie Meadows and Fonner Park in April, Bay Meadows in May before it closes up shop and becomes condos and Colonial Downs in June. Other plans are yet to be determined, but I can all but guarantee a trip somewhere else before the calendar says 2009. I may post some commentary and photos at a later point.

4) Kentucky Derby? Clear as Mud.
As typically happens, there have been a number of stories about the downfall of the 2 year-old champion (War Pass) and the emergence of the next big thing (Big Brown). However, 23 days before the derby, we still have no real idea who is the horse to beat. Sure, Big Brown crushed the field in the Florida Derby while breaking from the 12 hole, which the media made seem like he was starting in Ocala while the rest of the field was still in Hallandale. Pyro has handled his business thus far, but we'll see what happens this weekend when he faces a field chock-full of horses near his equal. I'll have more thoughts on this as the day approaches and will definitely post some picks.

5) Seth Martinez can ride anything, anywhere.
Remember the former Canterbury leading rider named Seth Martinez? Yeah, he was around last year, but after he and Mac Robertson had a falling out, Seth just didn't seem to be as good...or maybe it was the "quality" of many of his mounts. Either way, playing against Seth was a decent way to avoid underlays during much of the back half of last season. Well, a funny thing happened, Seth wintered in Phoenix and is currently the leading rider at Turf Paradise. To date, he's won 118 races from 626 mounts. That's 19%, folks. If he's back at Canterbury in a couple weeks, he seems revitalized and will be a force to be reckoned with. Derek Bell and Paul Nolan beware.

6) Other Canterbury jockeys have success elsewhere, too.
Seth isn't the only one finding success in places warmer...or at least different. Tanner Riggs had a great fall meet at Hawthorne in Chicago and currently sits in 2nd place in the current meet. Ry Eikleberry is 4th at the current Turf Paradise meet while Dean Butler and Jesse Garcia have been their usual, solid selves in Tampa, though the winners for those two have been less abundant. Finally, Dylan Williams won the riding title at Turfway in the fall before taking his tack to Oaklawn where he sits 5th heading into the final weekend. Oh, and Paul Nolan? He was 3rd at the recently-concluded Sam Houston meet...and Martin Escobar, after a down meet here last season, finished 6th.

7) Goals, plans and other things...
Last year, I was kind of haphazard with my posting. This year, I plan to adhere to some form of schedule. Basically, I'll post picks for every Thursday card and probably one weekend day. I'll review how the selections panned out on Monday or Tuesday and keep a running tally of win and in-the-money percentages. I'll also offer some betting suggestions and some post-race commentary. Plus, I'll post simulcasting ideas as I find them prudent. In short, I've got some big plans for the blog this season. Keep an eye out for the tipsheets around the Park and let's have a profitable season.

Lastly, I always welcome your e-mails at canterburykid@gmail.com