Week 4 Picks

Last week didn't exactly go as planned as we posted a 1-2-1 record to fall to 5-6-1 and a minus 2.6 units. This isn't where we wanted to be at this point. However, we've learned some things and it's time to get onto the plus side of the ledger. Let's get to the picks.

Green Bay -2 v. Minnesota As a Viking fan, it hurts to type this, but Brett Favre's Packers are good and. My Vikings are one-dimensional and the Packer defense is legit. Then, the anemic Chief's passing game exploit the one weakness in the Viking defense. Newsflash: The only thing the Packers can do is pass. GB -2.

Philadelphia -3 @ New York Giants Which performance last week was the anomoly: Philadelphia blowing up Detroit or the Giants playing some defense against Washington? I'm going to lean towards the Giants being anomolous and Philly looking like what we expected. PHI -3.

St. Louis @ Dallas O/U 46 Dallas will blow out St. Louis. There is little doubt about that, but the 12.5 point spread could be busted in garbage time. Instead, I'll play St. Louis to beat a suspect Dallas secondary often enough to push this total into the 50's. Dallas will jump out early forcing St. Louis to pass early and often. That should lead to plenty of points. STL/DAL OV 46

Baltimore -4.5 @ Cleveland Last week we won playing against Baltimore and their now 0-3 record ATS. Sure, Cleveland got blown out in their opener, but are 2-0 ATS since. Until Baltimore can cover a spread, continue to take the points. CLE +4.5.

Recap:
GB -2 @ MIN
PHI -3 @ NYG
STL/DAL OV 46
CLE +4.5 v. BAL

Week 3 Picks

So, last week didn't turn out exactly as planned. Actually, it didn't turn out anything like the plan. New Orleans and Cincinnati both lost outright, though the Colts did stay to the under and Green Bay won their game outright. So, we went 2-2 on the week, but we lost our 2 unit play leading to a net loss on the week of 1.3 units for a season tally of 4-4 and a minus 1.4 units. We're getting back on the horse this week and making some money.

But first, speaking of horses, I just haven't found time to post anything racing related. I'll probably shut down the racing aspect until Breeders' Cup week where I'll hit it good and hard again. Then, I'll shut it down again until the big three year old prep races start up at Gulfstream, Aqueduct and Santa Anita. Sorry, but with the NFL here, horses have taken a back seat.

On with the picks...
Indianapolis @ Houston O/U 48 I've been picking on the Colts to the under all year. I didn't post it, but I played the under against the Saints as well. With Andre Johnson out, I struggle to find more than about 10 points for the Texans. This matchup doesn't have the same favorable trends as the Tenessee matchup did, but Houston has kind of found a defense this year. Give me the Under 48 for 1 unit.

New York Jets -3 v. Miami The Jets really showed some heart in nearly coming back to win at Baltimore last week. Tom Jones is healthy and Miami has been less than good thus far, including last week's route at home by Dallas. Fireman Ed might be questionable for the Jets this week, but I think playing at home will be enough to cover 3. NYJ -3 for 1 unit.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay O/U 38 This one almost seems too easy. Tampa comes off a game where they lit up the scoreboard for 4 TDs and the Rams are the Rams, meaning they sheould get at least 2 touchdowns. Plus, the Rams are desperate after starting 0-2. This number should sail to the over. STL/TB OV 38 for 1 unit.

Arizona +8 @ Baltimore From a pure football perspective, this one is a bit of a stretch. However, from an investing perspective, it's quite elementary. Arizona is a perfect 2-0 against the spread and Baltimore is an accommodative 0-2. Both Cincinnati and New York showed that this defense can be beat through the air. Look for the singing birds to hang with the birds that live in groups called murders. Arizona +8 for 1 unit.

To recap, let's try the following plays for 1 unit each.
IND/HOU UN 48
NYJ -3 v. MIA
STL/TB OV 38
AZ +8 @ BAL

Week 2 Preview

Last week was full of potential. I hit on my two early game predictions, leaving me with a live three team parlay heading into the night game. Folks, this is an ideal situation to find yourself in. At this point, you can guarantee that you win the payoff amount of your parlay by insuring yourself with a bet on the opposite side. If you didn't insure your parlay, you found yourself out .1 units last weekend. Any amount you had wagered on the opposite of your final parlay leg would have improved this. Sure, it could reduce your profit, but a little peace of mind can make a late game much more enjoyable.

Anyway, let's make some money...

New Orleans -3 1/2 @ Tampa
The Saints looked awful to open the season last week. That said, Tampa is in the running for being the worst team in the NFL. The formula here fits the formula we used with the Pittsburgh game to a T. New Orleans is clearly the superior team being asked to cover a smallish spread because they are on the road. If this game is in Louisiana, it's an 8 or 9 point spread. Play New Orleans for 2 units.

Cincinnati -7 @ Cleveland
Yes, I'm picking on the Browns again. They were awful last week and have since traded their starting QB. Cincy caused 6 turnovers against an experienced Baltimore offense last week. What is Derek Anderson going to do? Brady Quinn? Please. Lay the touchdown for one unit.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee Over/Under 46
Indy looked dominant last week while Tennessee had to fight and claw their way to victory. The last four times these teams have met they've stayed under this number. Also, when the Colts travel to Tennessee, they seem to forget the firepower at home. Look for a lot of running in this one as it stays below the number. Play the under for 1 unit.

Green Bay +2 1/2 @ New York Giants
I think the wrong team is favored here. The Packers beat the Eagles in a close one last week while the Giants got man-handled by the Cowboys last week. Mix in the fact that the Pillsbury Throwboy will be under center and something called Derrick Ward will be taking the carries for the G-men and things look pretty bright for those from the land of cheese. Play the Pack +2 1/2 for 1 unit.

To recap:
New Orleans -3 1/2 for 2 units
Cincinnati -7 for 1 unit
Indy/Tennessee Under 46 for 1 unit
Green Bay +2 1/2 for 1 unit

When you're wrong, you're wrong.

Well, yesterday's picks produced some mixed results. The Steelers easily covered the 4 1/2 against Cleveland and Tennessee and Jacksonville didn't get close to the 38. Everything was shaping up nicely heading into the Sunday night contest. Then the wheels fell off. I suggested the under 44, which Dallas actually covered by themselves en route to a 45-35 victory over the Giants. For the most part, the early season under trend held as just 4 games in week one went over the number. I happened to pick one of the games that went over. I'm honestly shocked at just how bad both defenses looked last night.

The three individual plays I presented went 2-1 and the parlay obviously lost. Using the standard juice of 1.1-1, we should have lost .1 units. Not what I was looking for, but not a catastrophe either.

Anyway, tonight brings a double header. For many gamblers, Monday night is the ultimate get-even night to make up for the losses incurred on Sunday. Avoid the temptation to play heavily on Monday night. Usually, unless you have a strong opinion about the game when the lines are published, you should pass on Monday night. If I have a Monday play, I'll post it with my Sunday picks on Friday.

So tonight, sit back, crack open a cold one (or six) and enjoy what should be some entertaining football.

That's a wrap...

Well, the Canterbury spring/summer meet came to a close on Monday with someone housing the pick 6 for size at nearly 28k. I went 4 of 6 in hopes of a closing day inflated consolation payout. Overall the meet presented mixed results. Handle was down against the prior year, but attendance was up for the 11th straight year.

The jockey and trainer project I was working on proved to be too large and ambitious for me to get it done before the meet was over, so I punted. In fall, I turn my play toward Hoosier, Turfway and Remington. I'm attempting to do the trainer/jockey project on the Remington meet thus far so that it can actually prove useful information that can be used on the rest of the meet. Posting race picks will be more infrequent, but one sheet weekly is probably about right. I'll also have a series of postings leading up to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Monmouth on October 26 and 27. Expect picks to be posted October 25.

Also, the NFL season kicked off last night and I'll be taking looks opportunities to capitalize on NFL point spreads and totals. Last year I won with just over 60% of my picks. Anyway, let's take a look at a couple of opportunities for this weekend...

Pittsburgh -4 1/2 @ Cleveland
Generally, I dislike playing the road favorite. Too many weird things happen on the road. However, Pittsburgh is the superior team in this one. Cleveland is pretty much a mess and the pressure is on to perform this season. They may win 6 or 7 games, but I think they get handled in this one. Pittsburgh -4 1/2

Tennessee @ Jacksonville O/U 38
Early in the season the defenses tend to have the upper hand on the offenses, typically leading to week 1 and 2 games staying to the under. It started last night with the total staying under the 53 1/2 total. Last season, only 4 week 1 games went over 40 total points. Both of these teams have good to great defenses and neither have standout offenses. Give me the under 38.

New York Giants @ Dallas O/U 44
This is a play on the same trend. Also, mix in Romo's struggles against the Giants in his brief career as a starter and I think you have all the makings of a 20-10 kind of game. Under 44.

If sports gambling were legal in my state, these would be my three plays of the weekend. I'd play them all for 1 unit and parlay the trio for 1 unit as well.

To recap:
Pittsburgh -4 1/2 for 1 unit.
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 38 for 1 unit.
NYG/Dallas Under 44 for 1 unit.
3 team parlay of the above for 1 unit.

Sunny Saturday

Today's card finally features some great fields. Intrigue abounds. Let's get some winners.

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Fabulous Babe – This bunch doesn’t show a ton of talent, so I’m going to try this first timer. She shoes the best works of the bunch and has yet to taste defeat. Give her a look.
4 – Sky N Mighty – His debut was awful, but his works leading up to it and after suggest a bunch of talent. Forgive the debut and you might have your winner.
1 – Ondefencenightly – As we’ve discussed before, trainer Bryan Porter has put a ridiculous portion of his runners in the money this season. This one is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money despite never being closer than 6 lengths from the victor. She’s not likely to win, but a minor share is likely.

Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Susan’s Song – This versatile mare looks tough to beat here. She’s shown the ability to take the early lead or close smartly off a strong pace. I think the latter will happen here, but if the leaders get lazy early, she’ll jump to the fore earlier. She should be the winner.
7 – Wine and Spirits – She’s thrown in a few dull efforts of late, but ran a nice second to a horse that, quite frankly, it running out of her shoes right now in Go Go Diablo. I don’t know that she can beat the above, but she should be in the mix late.
4 – Pop the Latch – This one wheels back on just 8 days of rest, which suggests she’s sharp. She won that race against many of these same entrants. She would be no surprise.

Race 3: 21,675 Allowance, 6 ½ Furlongs
8 – Isleseeyousoon – This is a contentious allowance sprint and I’ll take the outside marker. There is a good mix of speed and closers in here, but a lot have class questions. This one is proven from a class perspective as he’s run well against both allowance and stakes foes. He should also appreciate the extra 110 yards of this race.
2 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This gelding has won his last two efforts. The big questions here are class and pace. He’ll have early company, but he proved he could last in his most recent effort. His previous tries against allowance foes this season have been dull, but he’s sharp.
4 – Plum Wild Again – He closed strongly in his last to win despite encountering trouble and changing course at the 1/16th pole. Again, class is the question, but a minor prize is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Race 4: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Icy Tobin – This almost isn’t fair. Icy Tobin is the ace sprinter on the grounds and he’ll set a very fast pace. This is a contentious battle, but when you factor in that you also get the stretch-running 1A America West, this should be the shortest price of the day.
6 – Fancy Gold – This mare takes on the boys after crushing a field of boys last out. She’s sharp and will be a handful for this bunch to handle.
2 – Lite Brigade – He’s a perfect 10 for 10 in the top two this year. He’s up against it here, but he definitely fits and could upset the top choice.

Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silk Selena – She returns to the races after running a solid third against similar. She’s put in a bullet work to boot. Mix in the jock change to Butler and I like this one.
1 – Somerset Girl – There is a ton of speed in here which should set this one up for a nice late-charging trip. She’s the best closer in the field and you know Nolan will give her the best trip possible.
4 – Dynabelle – Similarly, this one will put in a late run as well. She comes off a win at 6 ½ furlongs against claimers. Class could be problem, but she’s still in with a chance.
Race 6: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
8 – Mister Millu – There is only one bit of information to consider here. His July 20 race against allowance foes on this course netted him a second place finish, losing by just a neck. A repeat of that effort earns him a win. The class drop will help.
4 – Claires Connection – Toss the last race in the slop and you’ve got a very sharp turf horse. If that slop-tainted effort didn’t ruin his confidence, he’ll be tough to beat.
1 – Reengage – He’s got a big strong closing kick, but I’m not sure there will be enough pace to set it up. Then again, with as powerfully as he’s been closing, it may not matter what happens early.

Race 7: 45,000 Stakes, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Beyond the Reach – Single this one in the pick 6 and/or pick 4 and move on. She’s razor sharp and has the best speed figures of this bunch by a fair margin. Montalvo drives in from Iowa to ride. Formidable.
9 – Thanks for the Tip – She chased the super-impressive Run With Joy in the Frances Genter and finished second. She’s a good filly, but I’m afraid she’s run into another giant.
3 – Cant catch Judy – She’s done some damage against stakes foes this year in earning a win and a few minor shares. I’d look for the latter here.

Race 8: 10,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
5 – Unreal General – This guy has just been good this season. He’s 8 for 10 in the money on the year and has won or placed in 7 straight. He’s just good and impossible to ignore.
4 – Castor Troy – He’s been very impressive as well and just ran second to the above when washed off the lawn. These two should be very close at the wire.
2 – Trinity River – The 10 year-old has shown he’s not over the hill yet. He’s run second in two consecutive races. I’m not sure he can hang with the tandem above, but he’ll give his all.

Race 9: 45,000 Stakes, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Ghazi Up – He should dominate this field. He’s given 3 straight 80+ Beyer-worthy performances, which is more than the rest of the field combined: 0. Short priced favorite.
5 – Jagan – He’s been consistent this year, but seems to have topped out. He’ll likely settle for a piece of the gimmicks here.
1 – Dakota Hills – He just won an allowance race which suggests he’s sharp. Unfortunately for his connections, with the top choice in here, a minor award is the ceiling.

Race 10: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Miss Fancy Gold – She’s been knocking on the door, but hasn’t quite broken through yet. This is a pretty soft spot which may be conducive to maiden breaking.
6 – Wild Irish Rose – 30-somethings, if this doesn’t bring back college memories, I don’t know what will. While her namesake is a crappy wine, this first time starter appears to have some talent. The workout patterns are good and the Bell/Robertson connections are the best on the property. Very possible.
11 – Rockin E C and D C – She closed well in her last, but missed by a nose. She should offer some value on the underside of the exotics. Very playable.