Week 3 Picks

So, last week didn't turn out exactly as planned. Actually, it didn't turn out anything like the plan. New Orleans and Cincinnati both lost outright, though the Colts did stay to the under and Green Bay won their game outright. So, we went 2-2 on the week, but we lost our 2 unit play leading to a net loss on the week of 1.3 units for a season tally of 4-4 and a minus 1.4 units. We're getting back on the horse this week and making some money.

But first, speaking of horses, I just haven't found time to post anything racing related. I'll probably shut down the racing aspect until Breeders' Cup week where I'll hit it good and hard again. Then, I'll shut it down again until the big three year old prep races start up at Gulfstream, Aqueduct and Santa Anita. Sorry, but with the NFL here, horses have taken a back seat.

On with the picks...
Indianapolis @ Houston O/U 48 I've been picking on the Colts to the under all year. I didn't post it, but I played the under against the Saints as well. With Andre Johnson out, I struggle to find more than about 10 points for the Texans. This matchup doesn't have the same favorable trends as the Tenessee matchup did, but Houston has kind of found a defense this year. Give me the Under 48 for 1 unit.

New York Jets -3 v. Miami The Jets really showed some heart in nearly coming back to win at Baltimore last week. Tom Jones is healthy and Miami has been less than good thus far, including last week's route at home by Dallas. Fireman Ed might be questionable for the Jets this week, but I think playing at home will be enough to cover 3. NYJ -3 for 1 unit.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay O/U 38 This one almost seems too easy. Tampa comes off a game where they lit up the scoreboard for 4 TDs and the Rams are the Rams, meaning they sheould get at least 2 touchdowns. Plus, the Rams are desperate after starting 0-2. This number should sail to the over. STL/TB OV 38 for 1 unit.

Arizona +8 @ Baltimore From a pure football perspective, this one is a bit of a stretch. However, from an investing perspective, it's quite elementary. Arizona is a perfect 2-0 against the spread and Baltimore is an accommodative 0-2. Both Cincinnati and New York showed that this defense can be beat through the air. Look for the singing birds to hang with the birds that live in groups called murders. Arizona +8 for 1 unit.

To recap, let's try the following plays for 1 unit each.
IND/HOU UN 48
NYJ -3 v. MIA
STL/TB OV 38
AZ +8 @ BAL