After passing on last night's action, we're back to play the Friday card. It's only marginally better than last night's card, but it's an improvement nonetheless. Last week was plagued by the continuing August monsoon that hit Minnesota, but the last week has been sunny and pleasant which gives us the preferred fast and firm track conditions. I'll be back later today with the Saturday and Sunday picks.
Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
5 – My Friend Deke – The pace scenario isn’t ideal for this front-running type, but he’s been ultra-consistent all season in finishing off the board just once. Better still, in three efforts on the lawn, he’s been within less than a length of the winner at the end. If he doesn’t get caught up in a duel, he could finally get win number one on the year.
4 – Rallywithclass – He ran a strong one last time out, finishing second despite a rough trip. The distance is a question, and he only has one painfully average turf effort, but he certainly figures here for the top connections.
9 – Sushi Joe – There’s a lot of speed in here and this one is a confirmed grinder. It’s unlikely that he’ll win, but a minor award and some juice in the super are both possible.
Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He just missed against a very similar bunch last time. He’s a perfect 3 for 3 in the money this year and his worst defeat is by 3 parts of a length. The horse that beat him last time was on a considerable class drop and shipped in from Arlington. I don’t see anyone with those credentials here.
7 – Kasyno – He hasn’t run since early July, but he will set the early fractions. It doesn’t appear that he will have much company on the lead either. If he can relax on the lead, he’ll be long gone. The three furlong bullet adds to the intrigue.
2 – So Smooth – This one ships in from Arlington, but takes a step up in class. He’s been off his game in two polytrack efforts, but his prior turf form is more than enough to win against these. If the poly hasn’t ruined his confidence, he’ll be prominent at the wire.
Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
2 – Kelsey Miss – She figures to get a good stalking trip in here and may offer some value in a short field figured to be dominated by the one below.
4 – Princess Courtney – Her dirt form is suspect, to say the least, but she drops down the class ladder to a level at which she’s never run and her worst effort this season at Canterbury puts her in contention. She’ll be a very short price to kick off the pick 6.
6 – Consequently – Dismiss her last race on the slop and you’ve got a contender, though it’s hard to ignore the occasional clunker she runs. Playable in all wagers, but buyer beware.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tahkodha Bill – He ran very well in placing at 20-1 last time out, only getting caught at the wire. His debut was ugly and he was just nipped last time and I think he takes the big step forward to pose for pictures tonight. In a bit of an oddity, he may be the lone speed in a 2 year-old field.
5 – He’s No Piker – This first time starter for Justin Evans appears ready. Evans wins with 20% of firsters, too. Add in that jockey Lori Keith has put an astonishing 57% of her mounts in the money and the solid work pattern and you’ve got a playable one here.
7 – The Real Story – He’ll go favored, and deservedly so. He’s run a couple of nice races where he was gaining late. Somewhat puzzlingly Nolan takes over for Bell and Bravo adds blinkers in an attempt to get him more involved early.
Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Booster – He’s had some issues with wet tracks recently and should welcome a return to a fast track. He’s definitely the speed of the speed and will be the one to catch as they turn for home. He’s missed the board only once this season and shouldn’t miss it here.
1 – Lonesome Traveler – He blew in from the Windy City and stole his last race. This bunch is quite similar. He should sit just behind the above and pose the first challenge.
3 – Dark Indulgence – If either of the above don’t finish strongly, this one will be charging late and will make them pay. Morales has caught a bit of a hot streak lately and he’s very playable over the weekend.
Race 6: 21,675 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yrads
5 – Silent Preacher – He was clearly the best horse in his last effort, yet fell short. He broke awkwardly and was hung wide throughout, yet still closed to only miss by ¾ of a length. He climbs the class ladder a bit here, but a clean break earns him a check.
6 – Banker’s D Light – He drops out of a couple stakes efforts that actually weren’t too bad. He should appreciate the class relief and could best this bunch.
4 – Lowell Dean – Personally, I strongly dislike this animal, but he appears to be the most likely of the rest to hit the board. Plus, it’s important to not let emotions get in the way of making your bets, so I’ll reluctantly give this one a shot here.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Strum Bum – The Bum has one speed: Fast. He’ll bust the gate and put some distance between him and the field and sprint until he can run no more. Historically, he’d stop around the 1/8th pole, but this season he’s shown a little something extra. On paper he’s overmatched here, but I’ll take the Bum.
3 – Red Roller – He should go favored in here. He takes drop in class after finishing 2nd twice against allowance foes. He’ll have to catch the Bum, but he appears tough in here.
6 – Tez Taran – He’s a versatile type that should fall in nicely behind the Bum and stalk him all around. He also drops in class and 6 furlongs is definitely his game. Martinez keeps the mount and looks to atone for a poor effort last time out.
Race 8: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
1 – Audiahvo – He’s one of my favorite horses and he drops down to the class level that produced his last win. He’s a confirmed stretch runner and the pace scenario couldn’t be better for him as it appears at least three of his opponents are going to fight for the early lead.
5 – El Grande Seville – Of the speed, this one appears to be the best. He also drops in class after running second last time out in the slop. He’s thrown in some dull efforts this season, but he’s playable on class alone.
7 – Perfectly Quick – Dean Butler figures to give this one a nice stalking trip behind the pace battle. He’s run progressively better in each of his last three efforts and is 4 for 5 in the money at Canterbury. He’ll have to fight off the top choice late, but he’s in with a chance.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Closing Weekend
Closing weekend is upon us and it’s going to be a 5-day blowout. Every horse on the grounds is going to run this weekend. Okay, maybe not every horse, but most of them. As of now, entries have been finalized up through Saturday. Tonight’s card is awfully thin with a bunch of 6 and 7 horse fields, so I’m going to pass on tonight’s action. Friday's card is better and I’ll get picks for that card out either late tonight or early tomorrow. Saturday’s card is nothing short of fantastic with all but one field drawing 8 or more interests. The short field is a very, very contentious sprint which should be very fun to watch and may offer some profitable wagering angles. I know I usually post picks on Friday, but the skinny fields paired with being right in the middle of fantasy football draft season have led me to pass on tonight’s action. We’ll get some winners over the rest of the weekend, though. You can count on that.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
After the rain...
Travers stakes weekend kicks off with a buck night card that actually features a couple allowance races. Although the fields are smallish, this is actually a pretty fair betting card. I think the best value will be found in the pick 3 and pick 4 pools, though doubles might not be bad. Forget about hitting a big tri with these fields. The lid lifter and the second race are both scheduled on the lawn, but it’s been raining pretty much all week so I would expect both to be moved to the dirt. If that happens, disregard much of what I say about those races. If on the dirt, I like Instant Attraction in the first and Willy Wompus and Castor Troy in the second. Good luck!
Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares, Turf
6 – Stormin Beeber – She ships in from Arlington where she was running evenly against cheaper claimers. While that isn’t the best sign, trainer Greg Weir has put 5 of 9 Canterbury starters in the money and this filly has the best set of morning works leading up to this race.
8 – Miss Dewali – She drops out of special weight competition to face lesser foes here. Her running style suggests that she’ll need a hot pace to close into. That could be a problem as none of these seem particularly keen on grabbing the early lead. If someone waltzes through slow early fraction, she’ll settle for the lesser pools.
7 – Sara Sidle – She shipped in from Arlington last out and ran a gritty third while being hung 3 wide throughout. She may set the pace with little company.
Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
9 – Castor Troy – He won the dirt half of the equation in the battle of the surfaces on Extreme Day, yet turf figures to be more his game. In his first start of the season at this distance he made up 16 ½ lengths late with a furious closing kick, yet still only finished 5th. He makes the all important 3rd start off the layoff tonight and should run a big one.
2 – Unreal General – The General has won two straight and hasn’t missed the board since March. In his last race he beat a very similar bunch. He’ll go favored with Bell aboard and could easily get the threepeat here.
6 – Image – This 9 year-old has been remarkable in his career in earning more than $400k, making him far and away the most accomplished animal here. Also, he’s 7 for 9 in the money on the Shakopee sod. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s running well and should get a share.
Race 3: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tugfire – On paper, he ran an ugly race last time. He essentially refused to leave the gate on time and spotted the field an insurmountable margin. That being said, after he found his feet, his was picking off horses one by one down the stretch, going from last a the top of the stretch to 5th, making up 8 lengths in the process. An on time departure could definitely put this one on top. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, which would be very nice.
1 – Blue by Your – He drops out of special weight competition to face claimers after showing speed and fading last time out. He’s improved in each effort and further improvement would earn him a check in here.
4 – Jestintime – He’s shown good speed while routing in he last three effort, but just couldn’t sustain that speed in the stretch. The cutback to 5 ½ furlongs should suit him well. The troubling point is the 0 for 9 career record, but take comfort in the 4 times he has hit the board, if not in the top spot.
Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Just Josh’n – I’m no fan of 0 for 19 maidens, but this might finally be graduation day. He appears to be the likely pace setter as no one else has shown much speed. Paul Nolan stays in the irons, where he has put this one in second twice while the glorified exercise riders that have ridden him in between haven’t done him any favors. He led late in his last, and may lead to the wire here.
7 – Just a Cut Above – If you play the above, fear this one late. He is the field’s best closer and will be charging down the stretch. However, I don’t know if there is enough speed to get a hot enough pace for this one to close into. He’ll give you a thrill, but may not win.
2 – Venus Fly Trap – He hasn’t shown much in four career efforts, but he’s as likely as anyone else here. With Houghton calling the shots, it’s possible, but not likely.
Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Hunter’s Monarch – This race has a ton of early speed which should set it up nicely for this gelding to fly past them all late. He’s not a deep closer and Houghton should keep him just a couple lengths off the lead and fire down the stretch.
6 – Born Running – Of the pace setters, this one appears to have the best stamina. The effort he gave two back in wiring a field around two turns bodes well for a chance to wire this bunch around just one turn. Bell takes the mount and will use this one’s speed wisely.
2 – Zoombyu – This one has one speed: fast. He’ll break the gate and sprint until he’s tired. He make the third start off the layoff and could give these all they can handle.
Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Katie O’Ready – She ran into a monster in Silver Trippi last time out, yet still held 4th. Prior to that, she had three 2nds and a first. This bunch isn’t much softer, but there’s no monster in here either. She is 7 of 8 in the money at Canterbury, too.
6 – Affection – She’s been favored in every career start and has rewarded her backers by never missing the money, though she has only 1 career win for her favoritism. She could pop the gate and never look back, but the price is going to be awfully short.
1 – Kokopelli Trail – With all the speed in here, this is the closest thing I can find to a closer. She won’t unleash a furious late run, but she won’t be leg-weary either, which may be enough to move up past the tired ones.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Fancy Gold – There is a ton of early speed here, including this one. The conventional wisdom would be to find a closer, and we will, but I think this one can win here. She’s a mare facing the boys and has been ultra-consistent all season and sports an impressive workout tab leading up to this race. I’m happy to take this mare that hasn’t missed the board since 2005.
6 – Wicked Pancho – Here is the field’s best closer and he should benefit from the projected hot pace. Morales has been riding well lately and may add another victory to the tally here.
5 – Taco Don – He exits a monster effort when winning his second race of the season in the last. Normally, he would be the speed of the speed here, but Runnin’ the River is a monster pace horse which could grind the Taco into the ground. There’s plenty to like here, but I find cause for concern. If the 2 horse scratches, this one is more playable.
Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Grandif – This filly is the only animal that has shown any talent. This field is littered with ladies that haven’t finished any closer to the wire than 20 lengths. This one will be heavily favored and barring something totally bizarre, she should cruise to victory.
1A – Trinstar’s Quest – She’s 0 for 13 and hasn’t run since November. That should tell you just about everything you need to know about this field. Trainer Jim Warvell has won with 33% of his starters this meet, so I’ll take him seriously here.
7 – So Elegant – Every other animal here has proven that they can’t win. This one has yet to taste defeat in making her first start tonight. The works are inconsistent at best, though the July 28 drill suggests ability. Although trainer David Applebee hasn’t won this year, he has put 12 of 22 starters in the money. A share is a definite possibility.
Race 9: 8,700 Allowance, 330 Yards
1A – Primero Vaquero – The sorrel gelding has been really, really good this season. I don’t envision him losing here. You also get Mr. Special Colors, which almost isn’t fair.
3 – Trevors Easy Tipper – Last season’s horse of the year finally broke through two back at 350 yards. This is a similar heat and it’s not out of the question.
5 – Callies Corona – This 6 year-old has also been running quite well. I’m pounding chalk here, but there isn’t much hope for the other runners.
Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares, Turf
6 – Stormin Beeber – She ships in from Arlington where she was running evenly against cheaper claimers. While that isn’t the best sign, trainer Greg Weir has put 5 of 9 Canterbury starters in the money and this filly has the best set of morning works leading up to this race.
8 – Miss Dewali – She drops out of special weight competition to face lesser foes here. Her running style suggests that she’ll need a hot pace to close into. That could be a problem as none of these seem particularly keen on grabbing the early lead. If someone waltzes through slow early fraction, she’ll settle for the lesser pools.
7 – Sara Sidle – She shipped in from Arlington last out and ran a gritty third while being hung 3 wide throughout. She may set the pace with little company.
Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
9 – Castor Troy – He won the dirt half of the equation in the battle of the surfaces on Extreme Day, yet turf figures to be more his game. In his first start of the season at this distance he made up 16 ½ lengths late with a furious closing kick, yet still only finished 5th. He makes the all important 3rd start off the layoff tonight and should run a big one.
2 – Unreal General – The General has won two straight and hasn’t missed the board since March. In his last race he beat a very similar bunch. He’ll go favored with Bell aboard and could easily get the threepeat here.
6 – Image – This 9 year-old has been remarkable in his career in earning more than $400k, making him far and away the most accomplished animal here. Also, he’s 7 for 9 in the money on the Shakopee sod. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s running well and should get a share.
Race 3: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tugfire – On paper, he ran an ugly race last time. He essentially refused to leave the gate on time and spotted the field an insurmountable margin. That being said, after he found his feet, his was picking off horses one by one down the stretch, going from last a the top of the stretch to 5th, making up 8 lengths in the process. An on time departure could definitely put this one on top. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, which would be very nice.
1 – Blue by Your – He drops out of special weight competition to face claimers after showing speed and fading last time out. He’s improved in each effort and further improvement would earn him a check in here.
4 – Jestintime – He’s shown good speed while routing in he last three effort, but just couldn’t sustain that speed in the stretch. The cutback to 5 ½ furlongs should suit him well. The troubling point is the 0 for 9 career record, but take comfort in the 4 times he has hit the board, if not in the top spot.
Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Just Josh’n – I’m no fan of 0 for 19 maidens, but this might finally be graduation day. He appears to be the likely pace setter as no one else has shown much speed. Paul Nolan stays in the irons, where he has put this one in second twice while the glorified exercise riders that have ridden him in between haven’t done him any favors. He led late in his last, and may lead to the wire here.
7 – Just a Cut Above – If you play the above, fear this one late. He is the field’s best closer and will be charging down the stretch. However, I don’t know if there is enough speed to get a hot enough pace for this one to close into. He’ll give you a thrill, but may not win.
2 – Venus Fly Trap – He hasn’t shown much in four career efforts, but he’s as likely as anyone else here. With Houghton calling the shots, it’s possible, but not likely.
Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Hunter’s Monarch – This race has a ton of early speed which should set it up nicely for this gelding to fly past them all late. He’s not a deep closer and Houghton should keep him just a couple lengths off the lead and fire down the stretch.
6 – Born Running – Of the pace setters, this one appears to have the best stamina. The effort he gave two back in wiring a field around two turns bodes well for a chance to wire this bunch around just one turn. Bell takes the mount and will use this one’s speed wisely.
2 – Zoombyu – This one has one speed: fast. He’ll break the gate and sprint until he’s tired. He make the third start off the layoff and could give these all they can handle.
Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Katie O’Ready – She ran into a monster in Silver Trippi last time out, yet still held 4th. Prior to that, she had three 2nds and a first. This bunch isn’t much softer, but there’s no monster in here either. She is 7 of 8 in the money at Canterbury, too.
6 – Affection – She’s been favored in every career start and has rewarded her backers by never missing the money, though she has only 1 career win for her favoritism. She could pop the gate and never look back, but the price is going to be awfully short.
1 – Kokopelli Trail – With all the speed in here, this is the closest thing I can find to a closer. She won’t unleash a furious late run, but she won’t be leg-weary either, which may be enough to move up past the tired ones.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Fancy Gold – There is a ton of early speed here, including this one. The conventional wisdom would be to find a closer, and we will, but I think this one can win here. She’s a mare facing the boys and has been ultra-consistent all season and sports an impressive workout tab leading up to this race. I’m happy to take this mare that hasn’t missed the board since 2005.
6 – Wicked Pancho – Here is the field’s best closer and he should benefit from the projected hot pace. Morales has been riding well lately and may add another victory to the tally here.
5 – Taco Don – He exits a monster effort when winning his second race of the season in the last. Normally, he would be the speed of the speed here, but Runnin’ the River is a monster pace horse which could grind the Taco into the ground. There’s plenty to like here, but I find cause for concern. If the 2 horse scratches, this one is more playable.
Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Grandif – This filly is the only animal that has shown any talent. This field is littered with ladies that haven’t finished any closer to the wire than 20 lengths. This one will be heavily favored and barring something totally bizarre, she should cruise to victory.
1A – Trinstar’s Quest – She’s 0 for 13 and hasn’t run since November. That should tell you just about everything you need to know about this field. Trainer Jim Warvell has won with 33% of his starters this meet, so I’ll take him seriously here.
7 – So Elegant – Every other animal here has proven that they can’t win. This one has yet to taste defeat in making her first start tonight. The works are inconsistent at best, though the July 28 drill suggests ability. Although trainer David Applebee hasn’t won this year, he has put 12 of 22 starters in the money. A share is a definite possibility.
Race 9: 8,700 Allowance, 330 Yards
1A – Primero Vaquero – The sorrel gelding has been really, really good this season. I don’t envision him losing here. You also get Mr. Special Colors, which almost isn’t fair.
3 – Trevors Easy Tipper – Last season’s horse of the year finally broke through two back at 350 yards. This is a similar heat and it’s not out of the question.
5 – Callies Corona – This 6 year-old has also been running quite well. I’m pounding chalk here, but there isn’t much hope for the other runners.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Minnesota Festival of Champions
Well, today is the richest day of the year for Minnesota bred horses. Canterbury has assembled an 11 race card with more than $400,000 in purse money. Lately, I've been talking about the short fields and there hasn't been much value to be found. Today's card is chock full of wagering interests, with all but one race having 8 entrants or more. There was a ton to be excited about. Then, the floods came...After a summer so devoid of rain that the Minnesota state bird, the mosquito, failed to arrive. It rained all day yesterday and it is projected throughout today as well. The Canterbury grounds crew does a fine job, but the racing surface today is going to extremely sloppy, turf racing is out of the question and there will be an abundance of scratches. I was pretty pumped to give a full blown preview of the Festival, but this is just a total buzzkill. So, since there is so much uncertainty, I can't in good faith convince myself that I have any opinions of value on today's card. Below are a few animals that could make some noise in the slop, but don't consider these gospel.
Race 3: Minnesota Distaff Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
1 - Saveeta - She's been awful this season and doesn't belong here at all. that said, look what happened the last time she ran in the slop. She won by 2 at 17-1 with then apprentice rider Tanner Riggs aboard. She draws apprentice Jenna Joubert today.
Race 4: Northern Lights Debutante 6 Furlongs
8 - Pretty as a Smile - She shows great slop breeding and broke her maiden on an off track by 8 lengths. The number 7 horse will be prohibititively favored here.
Race 5: Northern Lights Futurity 6 Furlongs
8 - Wild Shifter - He has the best wet breeding in the field and will be guided by Seth Martinez.
1 - I the Jury - This horse makes quite the presence in the paddock. He's huge. That extra height might keep the mud out of his face a bit.
Race 6: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
11 - Silk Selena - Her best career speed figure was earned in the mud last time out. She's improving and doesn't seem to mind the footing. I'm afraid she may go favored with this off the turf, though.
Race 7: Minnesota Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
3 - Gold Mace - He shows a perfect 3 for 3 record in the money when it's wet. He ran a quality third in his last race, too.
Race 8: Minnesota Turf Championship 1 Mile
4 - Bisquik - He found himself last time out and hits the board half the time in the mud, including running a career best speed figure on this type of footing.
Race 9: Minnesota Distaff Classic Championship 1 1/16 Miles
5 - Nishani - She's won both of her career starts in mud and should set the pace. Early pace in the mud is always welcomed.
Race 11: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
5 - Tez Taran - 4 for 4 in the money in the slop and he draws Houghton.
Race 3: Minnesota Distaff Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
1 - Saveeta - She's been awful this season and doesn't belong here at all. that said, look what happened the last time she ran in the slop. She won by 2 at 17-1 with then apprentice rider Tanner Riggs aboard. She draws apprentice Jenna Joubert today.
Race 4: Northern Lights Debutante 6 Furlongs
8 - Pretty as a Smile - She shows great slop breeding and broke her maiden on an off track by 8 lengths. The number 7 horse will be prohibititively favored here.
Race 5: Northern Lights Futurity 6 Furlongs
8 - Wild Shifter - He has the best wet breeding in the field and will be guided by Seth Martinez.
1 - I the Jury - This horse makes quite the presence in the paddock. He's huge. That extra height might keep the mud out of his face a bit.
Race 6: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
11 - Silk Selena - Her best career speed figure was earned in the mud last time out. She's improving and doesn't seem to mind the footing. I'm afraid she may go favored with this off the turf, though.
Race 7: Minnesota Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
3 - Gold Mace - He shows a perfect 3 for 3 record in the money when it's wet. He ran a quality third in his last race, too.
Race 8: Minnesota Turf Championship 1 Mile
4 - Bisquik - He found himself last time out and hits the board half the time in the mud, including running a career best speed figure on this type of footing.
Race 9: Minnesota Distaff Classic Championship 1 1/16 Miles
5 - Nishani - She's won both of her career starts in mud and should set the pace. Early pace in the mud is always welcomed.
Race 11: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
5 - Tez Taran - 4 for 4 in the money in the slop and he draws Houghton.
Friday, August 17, 2007
TGIF
It's Friday and the fields are pretty slim again, including a couple of 6 interest fields. Oh well, the beers are still two bucks. The picks are below. I'll be back Sunday with a full Festival of Champions preview.
Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
1 – Oriental Tara – She fared well in the mud last time out, but clearly prefers better footing. She’ll get it tonight and should be the one to beat.
2 – Candlelight Dance – This filly makes her third start off the layoff tonight and figures to be quite involved here. She started poorly in her last, but rallied to make up a ton of ground to secure the show in the last. If the speed (above and below) backs up, this one will make them pay.
3 – Dance for a Buck – She gave a monster effort breaking her maiden last out. She should set the fractions and if she doesn’t get early company, she’s long gone.
Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He had all sorts of trouble down the stretch last out, yet still got up by neck at the wire. From a talent perspective, he’s better than these and a clean trip will prove that.
5 – Ghazarino – This gelding keeps improving with every start this season and has been impressive with his two starts on the lawn. There isn’t a ton of pace in here and that could leave him alone on the lead which could be a problem for the closers.
6 – O.G. Hunter – He was making up some ground in his first turf try, but was shut off badly around the 1/16 pole. Garcia takes over for Butler and should be able to navigate this one into the money.
Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 1/16, Turf
5 – Twisting Road – He ships in from Arlington where he ran fairly against a better bunch. This is a much softer spot which should get him some time with the track photographer.
3 – Mr. Miyagi – Truthfully, he really doesn’t fit here, but trainer Bryan Porter has put 19 of 24 starters in the money this season. Plus, there isn’t much pace in hear which may leave him as the lone speed. He should be a fair price and is worth a speculation.
1 – El Indy – He went favored last out when he shipped in from Arlington. He had a rough start and had nothing left to rally into a dull pace. He breaks from the rail and should get a clean start. If so, he’s definitely good enough to best these.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Tahkodha Bill – Okay, work with me on this one. His first start was a flop. He showed no speed, trailed, started to gain, was bumped and gave up. Fine, that was career start number 1. The facts are, he was working well heading into that debut and no doubt learned a ton. He gets a shot of Lasix tonight which should help as well. Anne Von Rosen is too good of a jockey to only have 5 victories this season. He’ll offer value and has a shot to make some real noise.
5 – Somerset Image – By comparison, this one had a terrific debut. Morales gave him a great ride and he made up some ground late, but got interested too late. I think he’ll be more keen to run this time and figures to go favored.
1/1A – Shoe Shoe Shoe/Chadder – Derek Bell will ride one of these two for Mac Robertson. When those two pair up this season, they are winning at an unheard of 47%. Watch the changes board to find where Bell lands and expect that one to make some noise.
Race 5: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile
2 – Autobeacat – He continues to alternate turf and dirt start this season with varying success. He last two dirt trips at one mile have earned him a win and place. Last time on dirt he missed by a ½ length to a good horse dropping out of allowance races. I don’t think that happens here…
4 – Dynamite Will – …unless this class dropping gelding repeats his last effort on the dirt. It came at this very level when he fell ¾ of a length behind a very good horse in El Inmigrante. Nolan gets the call for Jamie Ness which makes this one dangerous.
5 – Thong View – He ran a good one last out when beating a similar bunch. He should sit just behind the above pair and make a solid run in the stretch.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Ragweed – There is a ton of early speed in this race so I need to find a closer. This one fits the bill. He made up 14 lengths last time out when finishing third. Expect similar ground to be made up here with a win not out of the question.
1 – Come and Play – This one will also be charging late for Dean Butler. He’ll be closer throughout and will get first crack at the tiring pace, then he’ll have to hold off the above.
6 – Stevens Sword – He was the last of the pace to give way in his last race and it should be much the same here. If any of the early sprinters are going to hold on for a share, it will be this one with speed maestro Jesse Garcia aboard.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Keep It – After struggling in the allowance ranks early in the season, he seems to have found his sweet spot against 15,000 claimers. He’s better than most of these and gets the lethal Bell/Robertson combo behind him. It should be photo time.
4 – Stormy Half – This gelding won the first race I ever saw at Canterbury. As much as I would like to play nostalgia here, I can’t. He’ll be close and should get a share, though.
7 – Dezibelle’s Cat – The Cat is back after a few dull efforts. He won in a very sharp performance last time out and looks to be part of a contested pace here. If he repeats her last, he’s long gone.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Officer Big Man – This colt ships in from Churchill Downs where he was facing much tougher foes. He didn’t show a lot there, but the class relief alone may be enough for him to break through against this bunch.
2 – Maduro – He’s been knocking on the door all season, but just can’t get over the hump. He could win here, but I believe his runner up status is more of a trend than a fluke.
5 – Pine Siren – He takes the drop out of the special weight division to face claimers for the first time this season. He’s tried the turf without success lately and switches back to the dirt and sprints again. Sure, he’s a bit of an outsider, but he could add some juice to your exotics.
Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
1 – Oriental Tara – She fared well in the mud last time out, but clearly prefers better footing. She’ll get it tonight and should be the one to beat.
2 – Candlelight Dance – This filly makes her third start off the layoff tonight and figures to be quite involved here. She started poorly in her last, but rallied to make up a ton of ground to secure the show in the last. If the speed (above and below) backs up, this one will make them pay.
3 – Dance for a Buck – She gave a monster effort breaking her maiden last out. She should set the fractions and if she doesn’t get early company, she’s long gone.
Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He had all sorts of trouble down the stretch last out, yet still got up by neck at the wire. From a talent perspective, he’s better than these and a clean trip will prove that.
5 – Ghazarino – This gelding keeps improving with every start this season and has been impressive with his two starts on the lawn. There isn’t a ton of pace in here and that could leave him alone on the lead which could be a problem for the closers.
6 – O.G. Hunter – He was making up some ground in his first turf try, but was shut off badly around the 1/16 pole. Garcia takes over for Butler and should be able to navigate this one into the money.
Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 1/16, Turf
5 – Twisting Road – He ships in from Arlington where he ran fairly against a better bunch. This is a much softer spot which should get him some time with the track photographer.
3 – Mr. Miyagi – Truthfully, he really doesn’t fit here, but trainer Bryan Porter has put 19 of 24 starters in the money this season. Plus, there isn’t much pace in hear which may leave him as the lone speed. He should be a fair price and is worth a speculation.
1 – El Indy – He went favored last out when he shipped in from Arlington. He had a rough start and had nothing left to rally into a dull pace. He breaks from the rail and should get a clean start. If so, he’s definitely good enough to best these.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Tahkodha Bill – Okay, work with me on this one. His first start was a flop. He showed no speed, trailed, started to gain, was bumped and gave up. Fine, that was career start number 1. The facts are, he was working well heading into that debut and no doubt learned a ton. He gets a shot of Lasix tonight which should help as well. Anne Von Rosen is too good of a jockey to only have 5 victories this season. He’ll offer value and has a shot to make some real noise.
5 – Somerset Image – By comparison, this one had a terrific debut. Morales gave him a great ride and he made up some ground late, but got interested too late. I think he’ll be more keen to run this time and figures to go favored.
1/1A – Shoe Shoe Shoe/Chadder – Derek Bell will ride one of these two for Mac Robertson. When those two pair up this season, they are winning at an unheard of 47%. Watch the changes board to find where Bell lands and expect that one to make some noise.
Race 5: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile
2 – Autobeacat – He continues to alternate turf and dirt start this season with varying success. He last two dirt trips at one mile have earned him a win and place. Last time on dirt he missed by a ½ length to a good horse dropping out of allowance races. I don’t think that happens here…
4 – Dynamite Will – …unless this class dropping gelding repeats his last effort on the dirt. It came at this very level when he fell ¾ of a length behind a very good horse in El Inmigrante. Nolan gets the call for Jamie Ness which makes this one dangerous.
5 – Thong View – He ran a good one last out when beating a similar bunch. He should sit just behind the above pair and make a solid run in the stretch.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Ragweed – There is a ton of early speed in this race so I need to find a closer. This one fits the bill. He made up 14 lengths last time out when finishing third. Expect similar ground to be made up here with a win not out of the question.
1 – Come and Play – This one will also be charging late for Dean Butler. He’ll be closer throughout and will get first crack at the tiring pace, then he’ll have to hold off the above.
6 – Stevens Sword – He was the last of the pace to give way in his last race and it should be much the same here. If any of the early sprinters are going to hold on for a share, it will be this one with speed maestro Jesse Garcia aboard.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Keep It – After struggling in the allowance ranks early in the season, he seems to have found his sweet spot against 15,000 claimers. He’s better than most of these and gets the lethal Bell/Robertson combo behind him. It should be photo time.
4 – Stormy Half – This gelding won the first race I ever saw at Canterbury. As much as I would like to play nostalgia here, I can’t. He’ll be close and should get a share, though.
7 – Dezibelle’s Cat – The Cat is back after a few dull efforts. He won in a very sharp performance last time out and looks to be part of a contested pace here. If he repeats her last, he’s long gone.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Officer Big Man – This colt ships in from Churchill Downs where he was facing much tougher foes. He didn’t show a lot there, but the class relief alone may be enough for him to break through against this bunch.
2 – Maduro – He’s been knocking on the door all season, but just can’t get over the hump. He could win here, but I believe his runner up status is more of a trend than a fluke.
5 – Pine Siren – He takes the drop out of the special weight division to face claimers for the first time this season. He’s tried the turf without success lately and switches back to the dirt and sprints again. Sure, he’s a bit of an outsider, but he could add some juice to your exotics.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Gettin' Skinny
The fields are really beginning to thin out as horses ship to Oklahoma City to run for slot-inflated purses. I'll talk more about this at a different time. Simply, the economics of the horse racing industry mandate that owners take their horses to where the money is. Right now, Canterbury just can't offer the same purses. Anyway, enough soapbox for tonight. Here are the picks.
Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
6 – Whatashotzie – A couple animals in this race ran into a monster last time out in Esperamos. He crushed that field by 12 and change and came back last weekend to beat allowance foes quite easily. This guy was second to that one, completing the 5 ½ furlongs in about 1:05 and 2/5 seconds. That time is good enough to win at this level. He’s the pick.
7 – Rapid Jack – He ran another length behind the above and I foresee a similar ending here. Either could win, but this one has never been closer than 4 lengths back of the winner at the wire. Expect a minor share.
5 – Texas Rose – For the show I’ll take this first timer that has shown a decent set of workouts. I’m no thrilled about the 1 for 42 jockey or the 0 for 20 trainer, but they may be due to break through with this one at a fair price.
Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Friendly Soul – I can’t trust the favorite here (see below) so I’ll give this one a shot. She’s making her first career start for Bernell Rhone and son-in-law Dean Butler and has shown steadily improving 4 furlong morning works. She’s ready for this and will give the field everything it can handle.
5 – Dette’s Dream – Here’s your prohibitive favorite. She’s finished second in three straight after leading into deep stretch in all. My main concern was how easily Danube’s Hawk moved past her last time. The Hawk was unable to finish at 3 ½ furlongs, let alone 5 ½. Maybe she really took a step forward…or this one just can’t win. Either way, I can’t trust her to win, but she’ll get some money.
3 – Digi’s Luck – This filly can’t catch a break. She hopped at the start in her first effort and was bumped last time. She’s run fairly despite the bad starts. A clean start gives her a shot a prize.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Graceful Touch – She’s going to need an honest pace to set up her late kick and I think she’ll get it. Martinez has gone cold since the split from Mac’s barn, but this looks like a fair spot to get back on track.
6 – Elegant Star – It’s interesting to note that Nolan climbs aboard here after riding the 2 horse in each of her previous local turf tries. This one figures to make the first run at the pace setters around the turn and then brace for the late charging marker above.
4 – Our Lucky Draw – This animal holds the key to the race. She’s shown versatility in that she can sit just off the pace or close from far off of it. Either way, I think Morales can guide this mare to at least a small share.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Squeezable – She combined with 31-1 outsider Jane’s Gold to blow up the tote board when finishing second at 10-1 in her debut. There doesn’t appear to be anyone to contest the early fractions with her. If she gets to call the shots, she gets pictures taken.
3 – Jayana – She just put in a solid 4 furlong work and looks like she might have some talent. With babies, a little hint of ability is all it takes.
1A – Rundanya – She ran a solid effort last time when finishing an even 4th behind the top choice and a couple others. A similar effort against this bunch will put her in the money with a top prize not out of the question.
Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Vasant – This one is purely a hunch. The six year-old gelding is 10 for 21 in the money on the local dirt and has run his best career races at 6 furlongs. He has one awful effort this season as he’s been slow to come around. If we see the Vasant of old, he’ll get some money, if he’s just an old Vasant, there isn’t much to get excited about.
6 – My Mega Man – This one just came back from an 18 month vacation and broke well before fading. The second trip off the bench should be an improvement. One thing is certain, the price will be more than fair.
3 – Chorus Lion – He ran a proud third at 49-1 last time in his first trip since October. If he matches that effort here, he’s a winner.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Rose Fever – This race appears to be the first good betting race of the night with ten fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. This mare drops out of the allowance ranks and has all the looks of a winner against these.
7 – Conquistaprofit – This one is all about patterns. In June, she put in a sharp 3 furlong work in 35 flat and won at 9-1 while setting the pace. Fast forward to August and she just put in a 3 furlong work in 35 flat. Repeat?
1 – Jovial Angel – She’s been really sharp this season having finished no worse than 4th. She’ll be the inside speed and may never look back if she’s leading at the turn.
Race 7: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
8 – Strongwilled Stuka – She ran very well last out, but missed near the end. She was clearly better than the rest of the field that day and faces many of those same foes here. Although the distance could be questionable, she’s 10 for 20 in the Canterbury money and figures tough to beat.
6 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare likes to come from off the pace and should relish the return to routing. She should be passing the ladies late in search of some cash.
4 – Close Clearance – She showed nothing on an off track last time, but has shown some ability when going this route of distance. She’s not out of the question if she can round back into the form she showed last fall.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Hurry’s Fighter – Big Jake and I have been picking this beast all season. It’s probably time to throw in the towel and look elsewhere, but I’ll give him one last shot. He appears to tower over most of these. If he can’t win here, he likely never will.
9 – Somerset Call – If you don’t trust the above, this is your animal. In fact, I’d expect him to go favored here after missing by just a head in his last. He seems to be on the improve lately and would be no surprise here.
6 – Shady Ghazi – This guy has shown some speed before fading in the past. Last time out, Jamie Ness sent him around two turns in an effort build some stamina. That should help him here. He’ll certainly need to improve off of a few lackluster efforts, but he could add some spice to the tri.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden, 350 Yards
2 – Marlboro Express – She’s run 2nd twice in a row. Tonight should be graduation time.
4 – Dashing Tipper – He’s had a couple good efforts, but has yet to break through. He’ll have to leap forward, but he has the talent.
6 – Chics Go Wild – She drops down the class ladder to a spot where she finished 3rd two back. Plus, I like the outside horses in dashes because there is less likelihood of getting in trouble at the start.
Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
6 – Whatashotzie – A couple animals in this race ran into a monster last time out in Esperamos. He crushed that field by 12 and change and came back last weekend to beat allowance foes quite easily. This guy was second to that one, completing the 5 ½ furlongs in about 1:05 and 2/5 seconds. That time is good enough to win at this level. He’s the pick.
7 – Rapid Jack – He ran another length behind the above and I foresee a similar ending here. Either could win, but this one has never been closer than 4 lengths back of the winner at the wire. Expect a minor share.
5 – Texas Rose – For the show I’ll take this first timer that has shown a decent set of workouts. I’m no thrilled about the 1 for 42 jockey or the 0 for 20 trainer, but they may be due to break through with this one at a fair price.
Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Friendly Soul – I can’t trust the favorite here (see below) so I’ll give this one a shot. She’s making her first career start for Bernell Rhone and son-in-law Dean Butler and has shown steadily improving 4 furlong morning works. She’s ready for this and will give the field everything it can handle.
5 – Dette’s Dream – Here’s your prohibitive favorite. She’s finished second in three straight after leading into deep stretch in all. My main concern was how easily Danube’s Hawk moved past her last time. The Hawk was unable to finish at 3 ½ furlongs, let alone 5 ½. Maybe she really took a step forward…or this one just can’t win. Either way, I can’t trust her to win, but she’ll get some money.
3 – Digi’s Luck – This filly can’t catch a break. She hopped at the start in her first effort and was bumped last time. She’s run fairly despite the bad starts. A clean start gives her a shot a prize.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Graceful Touch – She’s going to need an honest pace to set up her late kick and I think she’ll get it. Martinez has gone cold since the split from Mac’s barn, but this looks like a fair spot to get back on track.
6 – Elegant Star – It’s interesting to note that Nolan climbs aboard here after riding the 2 horse in each of her previous local turf tries. This one figures to make the first run at the pace setters around the turn and then brace for the late charging marker above.
4 – Our Lucky Draw – This animal holds the key to the race. She’s shown versatility in that she can sit just off the pace or close from far off of it. Either way, I think Morales can guide this mare to at least a small share.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Squeezable – She combined with 31-1 outsider Jane’s Gold to blow up the tote board when finishing second at 10-1 in her debut. There doesn’t appear to be anyone to contest the early fractions with her. If she gets to call the shots, she gets pictures taken.
3 – Jayana – She just put in a solid 4 furlong work and looks like she might have some talent. With babies, a little hint of ability is all it takes.
1A – Rundanya – She ran a solid effort last time when finishing an even 4th behind the top choice and a couple others. A similar effort against this bunch will put her in the money with a top prize not out of the question.
Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Vasant – This one is purely a hunch. The six year-old gelding is 10 for 21 in the money on the local dirt and has run his best career races at 6 furlongs. He has one awful effort this season as he’s been slow to come around. If we see the Vasant of old, he’ll get some money, if he’s just an old Vasant, there isn’t much to get excited about.
6 – My Mega Man – This one just came back from an 18 month vacation and broke well before fading. The second trip off the bench should be an improvement. One thing is certain, the price will be more than fair.
3 – Chorus Lion – He ran a proud third at 49-1 last time in his first trip since October. If he matches that effort here, he’s a winner.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Rose Fever – This race appears to be the first good betting race of the night with ten fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. This mare drops out of the allowance ranks and has all the looks of a winner against these.
7 – Conquistaprofit – This one is all about patterns. In June, she put in a sharp 3 furlong work in 35 flat and won at 9-1 while setting the pace. Fast forward to August and she just put in a 3 furlong work in 35 flat. Repeat?
1 – Jovial Angel – She’s been really sharp this season having finished no worse than 4th. She’ll be the inside speed and may never look back if she’s leading at the turn.
Race 7: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
8 – Strongwilled Stuka – She ran very well last out, but missed near the end. She was clearly better than the rest of the field that day and faces many of those same foes here. Although the distance could be questionable, she’s 10 for 20 in the Canterbury money and figures tough to beat.
6 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare likes to come from off the pace and should relish the return to routing. She should be passing the ladies late in search of some cash.
4 – Close Clearance – She showed nothing on an off track last time, but has shown some ability when going this route of distance. She’s not out of the question if she can round back into the form she showed last fall.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Hurry’s Fighter – Big Jake and I have been picking this beast all season. It’s probably time to throw in the towel and look elsewhere, but I’ll give him one last shot. He appears to tower over most of these. If he can’t win here, he likely never will.
9 – Somerset Call – If you don’t trust the above, this is your animal. In fact, I’d expect him to go favored here after missing by just a head in his last. He seems to be on the improve lately and would be no surprise here.
6 – Shady Ghazi – This guy has shown some speed before fading in the past. Last time out, Jamie Ness sent him around two turns in an effort build some stamina. That should help him here. He’ll certainly need to improve off of a few lackluster efforts, but he could add some spice to the tri.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden, 350 Yards
2 – Marlboro Express – She’s run 2nd twice in a row. Tonight should be graduation time.
4 – Dashing Tipper – He’s had a couple good efforts, but has yet to break through. He’ll have to leap forward, but he has the talent.
6 – Chics Go Wild – She drops down the class ladder to a spot where she finished 3rd two back. Plus, I like the outside horses in dashes because there is less likelihood of getting in trouble at the start.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Graduation Day
Alright, I know that graduation day is typically in the spring, but half of tonight's thoroughbred races are for maidens. So, it's definitely graduation day at Canterbury Park tonight. No pick 6 carryover to shoot for tonight and the fields are kind of light, but there are plenty of reasons to play Canterbury tonight, including a pretty challenging pick 4 sequence. The picks are below. See you at the track!
Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Lunarco – This gelding has hit the board in 4 of his 5 starts this season. His only miss came one a sprint. Routing is definitely his game and he appears to have found a softer spot than what he’s been facing. Last time out he rallied for second, but was beaten 12 lengths by a very good speed horse in Gospodin. He’s on his game right now and should be in the mix late.
2 – Isaiah – He exits the same race as above and fell just a part of a length behind him. He hits the board at a better than 50% at this distance. If he can show some of the early speed he’s shown in the past, he may get an easy early lead and be tough to pass.
3 – Squall Line – The more I look at this heat, the more apparent it is that there is next to no early speed here. The above hasn’t shown early speed in nearly a year so I won’t be surprised to see him trailing early. Of the rest, this guy seems most likely to take the early lead. Lone speed is always dangerous. Butler is aboard as well, which is an added bonus.
Race 2: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Causing Grief – This one looks prohibitive on paper. The speed figures are 10 points clear of the next horse and the workout tab is rock solid. Nolan takes the mount, too. He’ll be charging late and will be tough to fend off.
5 – Jestintime – This will be your early pace setter. He just missed against softer company and faces a much tougher field here. That said, he’s sharp, and you can do a lot worse than taking a horse that is running well regardless of the company.
7 – Tricky Titan – As you know, I’ve been picking Houghton mounts since he showed up because he’s new this circuit and would offer value until the locals caught on that he was a really good rider. Well, I’m afraid the secret it out. Dude won 7 races last week. Anyway, this colt has done nothing but sprint in his career, but is bred for two turns. He’s 4-1 on the morning line, which is probably a fair price. Also, I don’t trust Lowell Dean.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
7 – Byefornow – This filly has run second in each of her last three tries on the lawn. Frankly, the horses that beat her are pretty decent animals. She’ll have company on the lead and may be in for another heartbreaker, but she’s my pick.
4 – You Are – She ran a sharp on while on the lead in June at Arlington. She has since moved to Shakopee where she has been training like a champion. The company here is a lot softer and if she can sit off the pace here, she’ll have a really good shot.
8 – Sara Sidle – CSI fans, this is your hunch bet of the evening. She’s been running poorly at Arlington, but a return to the turf will be a welcomed change. She’s a bit of an outsider on paper, but Houghton and Robertson call the shots here, making this filly quite live.
Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Lucky Libby – If you are playing tonight’s pick 6, single this one and move on. This is one of the ugliest fields of the season and this filly should win handily. There are very few threats to her.
6 – Green Eyed Girl – She hasn’t run since last June on the California Fair circuit at Stockton. She’s been working well and has shown some good speed in the past. It’s a tall order to beat the top choice, but a minor share is well within reach.
1 – This Is My Case – Much of this field has proven that they can’t win. This one hasn’t run yet and has shown a hint of ability in the mornings. That may be enough to get some prize money in this affair.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Turtle Mountain – Alright, the third time is the charm with this one. I’ve picked him for a minor share his last two starts while questioning the insistence on routing. The connections cut the Turtle back to sprinting where he will be tough to beat here.
4 – Coal Fire – He somehow won in allowance company three back when the speed all stopped. He fits better against claimers like this bunch. If the pace gets lazy, Martinez should have this one positioned to swoop right by.
5 – Red Spider – Like the Turtle, this one should appreciate the cut back from routing as well. He’s shown good speed, but tends to falter late. The routing no doubt built some stamina which should give him the ability to carry his good early speed farther.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Captain Canaveral – This gelding beat a group of allowance runners three back in a gritty effort at 9-1. He’s been drifting down the class ladder since when missing badly against higher claimers. This is a contentious spot, but he’s run in the money in 75% of his starts on the Canterbury dirt. He’ll have to improve off his last, but there’s a chance.
6 – He’s Got Class – This guy ran into a buzz saw in the form of Royalnregal Dream last time out. He was clearly second in that race and should go favored here. He’ll be tough to beat, but at short odds, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
7 – Lookatme Afleet – He threw an absolute clunker in the slop last time and continues to drop down the class ladder. If he returns to anything resembling the form he showed in Tampa, he’ll crush these. Short of a complete turnaround, though, he’ll be settling for a minor award here. The Ness/Houghton pairing is winning at a 42% clip this season, too.
Race 7: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Audiahvo – This is a tough race to call, but I’ll take a chance with this late running colt. I’ve watched him grow up at Canterbury and he always gives a fair effort. He’s 11 for 18 in the money and there seems to be plenty of speed to set up his late kick. He’s 10-1 on the morning line. If that is available, I’ll either be homeless or rich tomorrow.
6 – Willy Wompus – This gelding will appreciate moving into a race against fellow Minnesotans here. His last effort was fair, but he couldn’t stay close to the early lead and lost interest. He figures to stalk a pretty fair pace, and will have the first chance to pounce.
7 – Bay Talk – Marvin Johnson’s horses tend to run their best races near the end of the season. Sadly, closing day is not too far away at the moment. His running style should place him right beside Willy Wompus as the travel down the back stretch. If he can run with that one, he’ll get a prize.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
7 – Island Doc – He had a rough trip on a wet track last time out, but if you forgive that effort, he looks pretty competitive. Derek Bell lands on this Marv Johnson trainee here. The last time Bell rode this one, he only missed by a ½ length. I think they flip the script this time.
4 – Pardon the Deuce – This one is the big closer of the field. He’s made up considerable ground late in each of his last three efforts. There seems to be enough speed and fade types in here to set up a really nice trip for this guy. If the pace stops, he’ll capitalize.
1 – Ezn Thru – He was off slowly and didn’t factor in his debut last time out. Trainer Tim Padilla wins with 27% of runners making their second start and 23% of maiden claimers. Morales takes over for the apprentice jockey, and the morning works show some talent. I’m more than willing to forgive that dull first effort for a chance to score at a price here.
Race 9: 7,300 Allowance, 350 Yards
5 – Bold Maureen – She’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money at Canterbury this season. Winner.
1 – Hyla – She just missed in her last against similar. She should be there at the end tonight.
8 – Photos Dont Fade – Ironically, she faded late in her last. Still, the outside post will help.
Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Lunarco – This gelding has hit the board in 4 of his 5 starts this season. His only miss came one a sprint. Routing is definitely his game and he appears to have found a softer spot than what he’s been facing. Last time out he rallied for second, but was beaten 12 lengths by a very good speed horse in Gospodin. He’s on his game right now and should be in the mix late.
2 – Isaiah – He exits the same race as above and fell just a part of a length behind him. He hits the board at a better than 50% at this distance. If he can show some of the early speed he’s shown in the past, he may get an easy early lead and be tough to pass.
3 – Squall Line – The more I look at this heat, the more apparent it is that there is next to no early speed here. The above hasn’t shown early speed in nearly a year so I won’t be surprised to see him trailing early. Of the rest, this guy seems most likely to take the early lead. Lone speed is always dangerous. Butler is aboard as well, which is an added bonus.
Race 2: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Causing Grief – This one looks prohibitive on paper. The speed figures are 10 points clear of the next horse and the workout tab is rock solid. Nolan takes the mount, too. He’ll be charging late and will be tough to fend off.
5 – Jestintime – This will be your early pace setter. He just missed against softer company and faces a much tougher field here. That said, he’s sharp, and you can do a lot worse than taking a horse that is running well regardless of the company.
7 – Tricky Titan – As you know, I’ve been picking Houghton mounts since he showed up because he’s new this circuit and would offer value until the locals caught on that he was a really good rider. Well, I’m afraid the secret it out. Dude won 7 races last week. Anyway, this colt has done nothing but sprint in his career, but is bred for two turns. He’s 4-1 on the morning line, which is probably a fair price. Also, I don’t trust Lowell Dean.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
7 – Byefornow – This filly has run second in each of her last three tries on the lawn. Frankly, the horses that beat her are pretty decent animals. She’ll have company on the lead and may be in for another heartbreaker, but she’s my pick.
4 – You Are – She ran a sharp on while on the lead in June at Arlington. She has since moved to Shakopee where she has been training like a champion. The company here is a lot softer and if she can sit off the pace here, she’ll have a really good shot.
8 – Sara Sidle – CSI fans, this is your hunch bet of the evening. She’s been running poorly at Arlington, but a return to the turf will be a welcomed change. She’s a bit of an outsider on paper, but Houghton and Robertson call the shots here, making this filly quite live.
Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Lucky Libby – If you are playing tonight’s pick 6, single this one and move on. This is one of the ugliest fields of the season and this filly should win handily. There are very few threats to her.
6 – Green Eyed Girl – She hasn’t run since last June on the California Fair circuit at Stockton. She’s been working well and has shown some good speed in the past. It’s a tall order to beat the top choice, but a minor share is well within reach.
1 – This Is My Case – Much of this field has proven that they can’t win. This one hasn’t run yet and has shown a hint of ability in the mornings. That may be enough to get some prize money in this affair.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Turtle Mountain – Alright, the third time is the charm with this one. I’ve picked him for a minor share his last two starts while questioning the insistence on routing. The connections cut the Turtle back to sprinting where he will be tough to beat here.
4 – Coal Fire – He somehow won in allowance company three back when the speed all stopped. He fits better against claimers like this bunch. If the pace gets lazy, Martinez should have this one positioned to swoop right by.
5 – Red Spider – Like the Turtle, this one should appreciate the cut back from routing as well. He’s shown good speed, but tends to falter late. The routing no doubt built some stamina which should give him the ability to carry his good early speed farther.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Captain Canaveral – This gelding beat a group of allowance runners three back in a gritty effort at 9-1. He’s been drifting down the class ladder since when missing badly against higher claimers. This is a contentious spot, but he’s run in the money in 75% of his starts on the Canterbury dirt. He’ll have to improve off his last, but there’s a chance.
6 – He’s Got Class – This guy ran into a buzz saw in the form of Royalnregal Dream last time out. He was clearly second in that race and should go favored here. He’ll be tough to beat, but at short odds, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
7 – Lookatme Afleet – He threw an absolute clunker in the slop last time and continues to drop down the class ladder. If he returns to anything resembling the form he showed in Tampa, he’ll crush these. Short of a complete turnaround, though, he’ll be settling for a minor award here. The Ness/Houghton pairing is winning at a 42% clip this season, too.
Race 7: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Audiahvo – This is a tough race to call, but I’ll take a chance with this late running colt. I’ve watched him grow up at Canterbury and he always gives a fair effort. He’s 11 for 18 in the money and there seems to be plenty of speed to set up his late kick. He’s 10-1 on the morning line. If that is available, I’ll either be homeless or rich tomorrow.
6 – Willy Wompus – This gelding will appreciate moving into a race against fellow Minnesotans here. His last effort was fair, but he couldn’t stay close to the early lead and lost interest. He figures to stalk a pretty fair pace, and will have the first chance to pounce.
7 – Bay Talk – Marvin Johnson’s horses tend to run their best races near the end of the season. Sadly, closing day is not too far away at the moment. His running style should place him right beside Willy Wompus as the travel down the back stretch. If he can run with that one, he’ll get a prize.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
7 – Island Doc – He had a rough trip on a wet track last time out, but if you forgive that effort, he looks pretty competitive. Derek Bell lands on this Marv Johnson trainee here. The last time Bell rode this one, he only missed by a ½ length. I think they flip the script this time.
4 – Pardon the Deuce – This one is the big closer of the field. He’s made up considerable ground late in each of his last three efforts. There seems to be enough speed and fade types in here to set up a really nice trip for this guy. If the pace stops, he’ll capitalize.
1 – Ezn Thru – He was off slowly and didn’t factor in his debut last time out. Trainer Tim Padilla wins with 27% of runners making their second start and 23% of maiden claimers. Morales takes over for the apprentice jockey, and the morning works show some talent. I’m more than willing to forgive that dull first effort for a chance to score at a price here.
Race 9: 7,300 Allowance, 350 Yards
5 – Bold Maureen – She’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money at Canterbury this season. Winner.
1 – Hyla – She just missed in her last against similar. She should be there at the end tonight.
8 – Photos Dont Fade – Ironically, she faded late in her last. Still, the outside post will help.
Friday, August 3, 2007
Claiming Crown Day
Last year, Claiming Crown day gave Canterbury it's second largest crowd of the season. I highly doubt that will happen again this year since the program will be run at Ellis Park in Henderson, Kentucky today. I'm a big fan of Ellis Park since it is clearly the Ringo Starr of Kentucky racetracks. Seriously, Keeneland and Churchill are clearly John and Paul with Turfway playing the role of George. I kid, but I'm a huge fan of the Ellis Park 4% takeout pick 4. It may be the best value in horseplaying today. Anyway, we've got a slate of 8 relatively unspectacular claiming and maiden contests wrapped around a pretty solid renewal of the John Bullit stakes this afternoon/evening. The picks are below. Good luck!
Race 1: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – C.J. Blarg – This one drops in against claimers for the first time this season and appears formidable. He hasn’t run poorly, but just didn’t fit against those. This spot is very conducive to getting a diploma. The Bell/Robertson tandem certainly doesn’t hurt, either.
3 – Luna Del Gato – This one also drops in from the special weight division except he hasn’t shown much in his previous 8 tries. That said, he’s been working like a superstar and could surprise at a decent price.
5 – Mountain Quest – We beat him in his last effort with Singitagaingeorge. He was favored then, but won’t be here. He’ll be in the mix.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Booster – The top three finishers from a race identical to this return for round 2 in this one. Booster set a solid pace last time, but was caught late. I don’t think he’ll make that mistake again.
4 – Sheba’s Charm – He exits a race where Pouco Moleque positively crushed an overmatched bunch. He ran an honest second around two turns in that race. He certainly fits here.
5 – Bertando’s Victory – This field is so evenly matched that you might be better off using a dartboard. Any of these could win and be no surprise. Bertando’s Victory is the only entrant that is dropping in class having faced 15,000 claimers in his last. That may be all the edge he needs to separate himself in a hotly contested affair.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Barfly Zipper – Trainer Bruce Riecken calls on Jenna Joubert to take the mount in this baby girl battle. This one ran a solid second behind a winner who did the job in 59 and 1/5 seconds. That experience makes her the one to beat.
6 – Allthefrills – This debutante gets Bell for her maiden voyage and has been working impressively in the mornings. If she can carry that form into the afternoon, she may win.
7 – Oh Baby Doll – She raced in tight quarters last out, but was only beaten by 3 ¾ lengths. A cleaner trip here gives here a very good shot at victory.
Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Maduro – It’s finally diploma time for this guy. He’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money on the season at Canterbury and he has all the look of the winner here. It’s not the easiest spot, but he’s right there.
6 – Supernovace – This one will likely go favored. He drops from special weights to claimers for Bell and Robertson. He has also run decently when finishing second and third in his only tries on this track. He’ll be there in the end, but offers no value.
3 – Man of Men – I personally thought he was going to graduate in each of his three most recent efforts, but he faltered. He should appreciate the cut back to sprinting after routing three straight times. He’ll likely be the one that the above duo will need to run down in the stretch and deserves a look.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
9 – Shattered Dreams – Houghton gets the call and draws a good stalking post. He should sit a couple of lengths back and fire around the turn. This filly appears the best of this bunch.
1A – Oriental Tara – She’s been running well against this type of group and will likely find herself on or close to the lead here. You also get the 1 Diverse Curse as a bonus.
4 – Sweet Blarney – She drops in class and goes turf to dirt. A clean trip equals a prize.
Race 6: 45,000 John Bullit Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
6 – Prospective Kiss – There are many possibilities in the John Bullit. This gelding should benefit from a projected pace duel between Honour Colony and Sir Swervalot. If those two back up, he’ll be ready to capitalize and get the money.
4 – Honour Colony – The winning mare in the Lady Canterbury three weeks ago returns to take on the boys here. As mentioned above, she projects to battle through hot early fractions, but she’s run some good races lately and has a bullet work leading up to this effort. She should hold on for a share, if not the lion’s share.
2 – On Safari – Here is a filly that figures to capitalize on the pace scenario. She rallied bravely at 25-1 to place in the Lady Canterbury. I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned the tables on the above here.
Race 7: 25,000 Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Turf
3 – Did – Ignore his third place effort at Horsemen’s Park last time and focus on his perfect 3 for 3 record at this distance on the lawn. He’s not untouchable, but figures prominently here.
7 – Timetobook – He’s taken on quarterhorses in both of his last efforts and figures to be the best early speed. In a turf sprint, sometimes running down a quick gate horse is an awfully tall order. He’ll give you a thrill, that is certain.
2 – Castles in the Sky – This Thad Keller entrant ships in from Iowa to try the sod. He’s been running well and Keller only ships if he thinks he can win as evidenced by his 27% winning percentage at Canterbury. Don’t overlook him.
Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Silk Selena – This is one of the saddest bunches of allowance runners I’ve seen in quite some time. This is essentially a claiming race with an inflated purse. Anyway, this girl didn’t like routing last time out, but has run decently in sprints this season. She’s the best option I can find here.
3 – Milly Wompus – She just missed against claimers in her last and draws Houghton for this one. She doesn’t fit on class, but she’s razor sharp, which may be all that is needed to capture the prize in this one.
5 – Minn E Scat – She ran poorly against open company in her last and drops in against fellow Minnesotans here. She’s 2 for 3 in the money in her career and shows at least a modicum of talent. She draws Bell for Gary Sherer’s barn that has put better than 50% of his runners in the money this season.
Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1 – Sparkling Endeavor – This race appears to be awfully light on early speed, which could set this one up for a comfortable trip while leading the way. The threat is that one of the many closers in this field runs her down late. Jockey Scott Stevens is quite adept at getting a horse to relax, so I expect him to reserve this one through slow fractions and discourage all challenges in the stretch. The class drop from the allowance ranks helps, too.
7 – Country Child – This one also drops from an allowance race and made up a ton of ground late. Of the closers in here, she appears to be the biggest threat to the inside marker.
3 – Mill Time – Of course, it’s always possible that a stalking type might win this contest. If so, this is the one with the best show. She has the tactical speed to rate a couple lengths behind the pace, but hasn’t really shown the killer instinct I’d like to see late. Still, Houghton will put her in a good spot. The only question will be if she’s good enough or not.
Race 1: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – C.J. Blarg – This one drops in against claimers for the first time this season and appears formidable. He hasn’t run poorly, but just didn’t fit against those. This spot is very conducive to getting a diploma. The Bell/Robertson tandem certainly doesn’t hurt, either.
3 – Luna Del Gato – This one also drops in from the special weight division except he hasn’t shown much in his previous 8 tries. That said, he’s been working like a superstar and could surprise at a decent price.
5 – Mountain Quest – We beat him in his last effort with Singitagaingeorge. He was favored then, but won’t be here. He’ll be in the mix.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Booster – The top three finishers from a race identical to this return for round 2 in this one. Booster set a solid pace last time, but was caught late. I don’t think he’ll make that mistake again.
4 – Sheba’s Charm – He exits a race where Pouco Moleque positively crushed an overmatched bunch. He ran an honest second around two turns in that race. He certainly fits here.
5 – Bertando’s Victory – This field is so evenly matched that you might be better off using a dartboard. Any of these could win and be no surprise. Bertando’s Victory is the only entrant that is dropping in class having faced 15,000 claimers in his last. That may be all the edge he needs to separate himself in a hotly contested affair.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Barfly Zipper – Trainer Bruce Riecken calls on Jenna Joubert to take the mount in this baby girl battle. This one ran a solid second behind a winner who did the job in 59 and 1/5 seconds. That experience makes her the one to beat.
6 – Allthefrills – This debutante gets Bell for her maiden voyage and has been working impressively in the mornings. If she can carry that form into the afternoon, she may win.
7 – Oh Baby Doll – She raced in tight quarters last out, but was only beaten by 3 ¾ lengths. A cleaner trip here gives here a very good shot at victory.
Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Maduro – It’s finally diploma time for this guy. He’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money on the season at Canterbury and he has all the look of the winner here. It’s not the easiest spot, but he’s right there.
6 – Supernovace – This one will likely go favored. He drops from special weights to claimers for Bell and Robertson. He has also run decently when finishing second and third in his only tries on this track. He’ll be there in the end, but offers no value.
3 – Man of Men – I personally thought he was going to graduate in each of his three most recent efforts, but he faltered. He should appreciate the cut back to sprinting after routing three straight times. He’ll likely be the one that the above duo will need to run down in the stretch and deserves a look.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
9 – Shattered Dreams – Houghton gets the call and draws a good stalking post. He should sit a couple of lengths back and fire around the turn. This filly appears the best of this bunch.
1A – Oriental Tara – She’s been running well against this type of group and will likely find herself on or close to the lead here. You also get the 1 Diverse Curse as a bonus.
4 – Sweet Blarney – She drops in class and goes turf to dirt. A clean trip equals a prize.
Race 6: 45,000 John Bullit Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
6 – Prospective Kiss – There are many possibilities in the John Bullit. This gelding should benefit from a projected pace duel between Honour Colony and Sir Swervalot. If those two back up, he’ll be ready to capitalize and get the money.
4 – Honour Colony – The winning mare in the Lady Canterbury three weeks ago returns to take on the boys here. As mentioned above, she projects to battle through hot early fractions, but she’s run some good races lately and has a bullet work leading up to this effort. She should hold on for a share, if not the lion’s share.
2 – On Safari – Here is a filly that figures to capitalize on the pace scenario. She rallied bravely at 25-1 to place in the Lady Canterbury. I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned the tables on the above here.
Race 7: 25,000 Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Turf
3 – Did – Ignore his third place effort at Horsemen’s Park last time and focus on his perfect 3 for 3 record at this distance on the lawn. He’s not untouchable, but figures prominently here.
7 – Timetobook – He’s taken on quarterhorses in both of his last efforts and figures to be the best early speed. In a turf sprint, sometimes running down a quick gate horse is an awfully tall order. He’ll give you a thrill, that is certain.
2 – Castles in the Sky – This Thad Keller entrant ships in from Iowa to try the sod. He’s been running well and Keller only ships if he thinks he can win as evidenced by his 27% winning percentage at Canterbury. Don’t overlook him.
Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Silk Selena – This is one of the saddest bunches of allowance runners I’ve seen in quite some time. This is essentially a claiming race with an inflated purse. Anyway, this girl didn’t like routing last time out, but has run decently in sprints this season. She’s the best option I can find here.
3 – Milly Wompus – She just missed against claimers in her last and draws Houghton for this one. She doesn’t fit on class, but she’s razor sharp, which may be all that is needed to capture the prize in this one.
5 – Minn E Scat – She ran poorly against open company in her last and drops in against fellow Minnesotans here. She’s 2 for 3 in the money in her career and shows at least a modicum of talent. She draws Bell for Gary Sherer’s barn that has put better than 50% of his runners in the money this season.
Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1 – Sparkling Endeavor – This race appears to be awfully light on early speed, which could set this one up for a comfortable trip while leading the way. The threat is that one of the many closers in this field runs her down late. Jockey Scott Stevens is quite adept at getting a horse to relax, so I expect him to reserve this one through slow fractions and discourage all challenges in the stretch. The class drop from the allowance ranks helps, too.
7 – Country Child – This one also drops from an allowance race and made up a ton of ground late. Of the closers in here, she appears to be the biggest threat to the inside marker.
3 – Mill Time – Of course, it’s always possible that a stalking type might win this contest. If so, this is the one with the best show. She has the tactical speed to rate a couple lengths behind the pace, but hasn’t really shown the killer instinct I’d like to see late. Still, Houghton will put her in a good spot. The only question will be if she’s good enough or not.
Friday picks
Last night's picks were mixed with some success. There were a few oddball winners last night, most notably Jane's Gold at 30-1. Let see what we can do tonight...
Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Roses ‘n Rainbows – She ran a brave one at 19-1 while dueling for the lead and placed in her last. The winner that night was in runaway fashion and the show horse has also returned to win, which lends credibility to the effort as she steps back into among special weight company again. The bullet she fired last Saturday morning adds to the intrigue.
7 – Affection – This filly is a quandary. She’s gone favored and failed in all five career starts, yet still finished in the money in every effort. She’ll be the shortest price on the board again, but I just can’t trust her at skinny odds. Houghton takes the mount, but I’ll try to beat her. She’ll finish in the money and likely kill any value in the exacta/trifecta pools, too.
1 – Lovely Kaelyn – This animal returns to sprinting on the dirt after unsuccessfully routing on the sod a couple times. The pedigree says she’s like the distance, but her spring form at Calder suggests not. This is a much softer bunch than those and she’d be no surprise.
Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
2 – Claires Connection – He broke poorly in his last, but beat allowance foes under the wire two back, but was dq’d to 2nd. He is 8 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury turf, but has no victories. He’ll likely be a skinny price, but he appears most likely.
3 – Ghazarino – He ran the best race of his career in his first try on the grass last out. He’ll have to improve to best this bunch, but it’s not out of the question.
7 – J T Kingfisher – Mac Robertson wheels this guy back just 7 days after breaking his maiden. He had some traffic trouble in that effort and had to alter course in mid stretch, but still got up for the money. That was a real character builder that should suit him well as he faces winners for the first time. Bell moves to the top choice, but Garcia is no slouch.
Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – Chasm – He had a nightmarish trip in his last effort, but was still only beaten by two lengths. He should recover fine from that disappointing effort and could offer an intriguing option in a pretty evenly matched field.
9 – El Indy – This gelding is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes champion Rags to Riches. He’s not in the same class as her, but he’s been running against much better opponents on the poly track at Arlington. He’ll likely go favored and should be tough.
6 – Dynamite Will – He broke from a wide post and gave a dull effort in his last, but beat a similar group before that. I’m not sure who will be guiding this one with Riggs on the shelf for a couple weeks, but this one should sit behind the pace setters and pounce coming out of the turn.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
7 – Touchmewithmagic – Seven baby Minnesota boys do battle in the first of back to back heats here. I’ll take the outside first timers with the top jockey. He shows a decent set of workouts and is as likely as any in here.
2 – Tez Sunaman – My favorite trainer Tammy Domenosky sends this one out for career start number two. The first one was brutal as he stumbled out of the gate and had to check in traffic. Forgive that effort and look at the competitive works that led up to it.
1 – Brilliant Baby – The cagey veteran of the field is making just his 3rd career start. He’s shown speed in both efforts before fading down the stretch. I’m not sure tonight will be any different, but this contest is wide open.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs,
1 – Sahan – Domenosky sends this one postward after he ran a great race when missing by just a neck. The final time in that race was a blistering 59 1/5 seconds. If Butler can get him to repeat that effort, he’ll find himself in the winner’s circle.
5 – The Real Story – This would be my top choice in the race, but I don’t know if the pace will be hot enough to set up his run and I think the above might just be too much for this field. He raced widely and closed ground in his last and if the above stops before the finish line, this will be the most likely beneficiary.
3 – B.B. Hill – He didn’t get a good start last time and was hung 4 wide throughout. A clean start and less circuitous trip make him a definite factor here.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Iwazascruffyboy – This is one of my favorite horses at Canterbury. Unfortunately, I’m not alone as he always gets plenty of support at the windows. He’s improved in each of his last three efforts and Nolan stays aboard. He’ll be favored, but be tough to beat.
2 – Dark Indulgence – I think the above and below may hook up on the lead and set up this guy’s late kick. Morales has the mount and I expect him to catch fire soon, perhaps here.
1 – Stevens Sword – This guy has either won or placed in each of his last five efforts. He should be part of the pace scenario with the top choice and Garcia knows how to handle horses on the lead. I think these two will duel and the first one to blink will have to settle for a minor share.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
3 – Royal Fox – I’m taking a bit of a shot here. From a speed figure perspective, he really doesn’t fit here. However, there is a large quantity of early speed in here and he is the only confirmed big closer in the field. Scotty Stevens is a patient jockey who will reserve this guy until he needs his big run late. If the speed backs up, this is your winner.
8 – Kitty Litter – In a race full of speed, he appears to be the speed of the speed. He ran well in his last, but encountered the class-dropping Keep It and was beat handily. The competition doesn’t feature anyone as classy as that animal which gives this one a chance to hold on at the end.
2 – Louis de Plus – He’s a bit of an enigma as he drops into the claiming ranks. He’s the morning line favorite, but there are plenty of question marks. He’ll likely sit just behind the hot pace and have the first crack at passing them, but then he’ll have to hold off the closers.
Race 8: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Lady Eloquence – The writing on the wall suggests a win here. Bell and Robertson are the hottest connections at the track, and they drop the filly in class and ship in from Arlington. Mac spots his horses well and this one should get the money.
2 – Lil Makena – Trainer Bryan Porter is winning with 32% of his starters. I passed on both of his entrants in earlier races and this one appears the most likely of his runners. That said, she’s still an outsider in this group, but could surprise. She’ll offer a square price.
4 – Ontherockswithsalt – This gray filly may be able to sneak away on the lead with Garcia. If that happens, they may be tough to get by late.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
10 – Rockin E C and D C – This filly is named for her owners and breeders, Edna and Dale Cheloha. Dale trains, too. Anyway, the workout pattern here is rock solid. I’m surprised she isn’t in a special weight contest. She’s the winner if ready.
5 – Mill City – She drops in from special weight company and should go favored. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
12 – U Needa Rita – This filly has shown absolutely nothing in her 9 career starts, but I think the sprint/route/sprint pattern bodes well for a filly that has shown some speed on occasion and faded. She’ll give you a square price – that much is certain.
Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Roses ‘n Rainbows – She ran a brave one at 19-1 while dueling for the lead and placed in her last. The winner that night was in runaway fashion and the show horse has also returned to win, which lends credibility to the effort as she steps back into among special weight company again. The bullet she fired last Saturday morning adds to the intrigue.
7 – Affection – This filly is a quandary. She’s gone favored and failed in all five career starts, yet still finished in the money in every effort. She’ll be the shortest price on the board again, but I just can’t trust her at skinny odds. Houghton takes the mount, but I’ll try to beat her. She’ll finish in the money and likely kill any value in the exacta/trifecta pools, too.
1 – Lovely Kaelyn – This animal returns to sprinting on the dirt after unsuccessfully routing on the sod a couple times. The pedigree says she’s like the distance, but her spring form at Calder suggests not. This is a much softer bunch than those and she’d be no surprise.
Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
2 – Claires Connection – He broke poorly in his last, but beat allowance foes under the wire two back, but was dq’d to 2nd. He is 8 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury turf, but has no victories. He’ll likely be a skinny price, but he appears most likely.
3 – Ghazarino – He ran the best race of his career in his first try on the grass last out. He’ll have to improve to best this bunch, but it’s not out of the question.
7 – J T Kingfisher – Mac Robertson wheels this guy back just 7 days after breaking his maiden. He had some traffic trouble in that effort and had to alter course in mid stretch, but still got up for the money. That was a real character builder that should suit him well as he faces winners for the first time. Bell moves to the top choice, but Garcia is no slouch.
Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – Chasm – He had a nightmarish trip in his last effort, but was still only beaten by two lengths. He should recover fine from that disappointing effort and could offer an intriguing option in a pretty evenly matched field.
9 – El Indy – This gelding is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes champion Rags to Riches. He’s not in the same class as her, but he’s been running against much better opponents on the poly track at Arlington. He’ll likely go favored and should be tough.
6 – Dynamite Will – He broke from a wide post and gave a dull effort in his last, but beat a similar group before that. I’m not sure who will be guiding this one with Riggs on the shelf for a couple weeks, but this one should sit behind the pace setters and pounce coming out of the turn.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
7 – Touchmewithmagic – Seven baby Minnesota boys do battle in the first of back to back heats here. I’ll take the outside first timers with the top jockey. He shows a decent set of workouts and is as likely as any in here.
2 – Tez Sunaman – My favorite trainer Tammy Domenosky sends this one out for career start number two. The first one was brutal as he stumbled out of the gate and had to check in traffic. Forgive that effort and look at the competitive works that led up to it.
1 – Brilliant Baby – The cagey veteran of the field is making just his 3rd career start. He’s shown speed in both efforts before fading down the stretch. I’m not sure tonight will be any different, but this contest is wide open.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs,
1 – Sahan – Domenosky sends this one postward after he ran a great race when missing by just a neck. The final time in that race was a blistering 59 1/5 seconds. If Butler can get him to repeat that effort, he’ll find himself in the winner’s circle.
5 – The Real Story – This would be my top choice in the race, but I don’t know if the pace will be hot enough to set up his run and I think the above might just be too much for this field. He raced widely and closed ground in his last and if the above stops before the finish line, this will be the most likely beneficiary.
3 – B.B. Hill – He didn’t get a good start last time and was hung 4 wide throughout. A clean start and less circuitous trip make him a definite factor here.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Iwazascruffyboy – This is one of my favorite horses at Canterbury. Unfortunately, I’m not alone as he always gets plenty of support at the windows. He’s improved in each of his last three efforts and Nolan stays aboard. He’ll be favored, but be tough to beat.
2 – Dark Indulgence – I think the above and below may hook up on the lead and set up this guy’s late kick. Morales has the mount and I expect him to catch fire soon, perhaps here.
1 – Stevens Sword – This guy has either won or placed in each of his last five efforts. He should be part of the pace scenario with the top choice and Garcia knows how to handle horses on the lead. I think these two will duel and the first one to blink will have to settle for a minor share.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
3 – Royal Fox – I’m taking a bit of a shot here. From a speed figure perspective, he really doesn’t fit here. However, there is a large quantity of early speed in here and he is the only confirmed big closer in the field. Scotty Stevens is a patient jockey who will reserve this guy until he needs his big run late. If the speed backs up, this is your winner.
8 – Kitty Litter – In a race full of speed, he appears to be the speed of the speed. He ran well in his last, but encountered the class-dropping Keep It and was beat handily. The competition doesn’t feature anyone as classy as that animal which gives this one a chance to hold on at the end.
2 – Louis de Plus – He’s a bit of an enigma as he drops into the claiming ranks. He’s the morning line favorite, but there are plenty of question marks. He’ll likely sit just behind the hot pace and have the first crack at passing them, but then he’ll have to hold off the closers.
Race 8: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Lady Eloquence – The writing on the wall suggests a win here. Bell and Robertson are the hottest connections at the track, and they drop the filly in class and ship in from Arlington. Mac spots his horses well and this one should get the money.
2 – Lil Makena – Trainer Bryan Porter is winning with 32% of his starters. I passed on both of his entrants in earlier races and this one appears the most likely of his runners. That said, she’s still an outsider in this group, but could surprise. She’ll offer a square price.
4 – Ontherockswithsalt – This gray filly may be able to sneak away on the lead with Garcia. If that happens, they may be tough to get by late.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
10 – Rockin E C and D C – This filly is named for her owners and breeders, Edna and Dale Cheloha. Dale trains, too. Anyway, the workout pattern here is rock solid. I’m surprised she isn’t in a special weight contest. She’s the winner if ready.
5 – Mill City – She drops in from special weight company and should go favored. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
12 – U Needa Rita – This filly has shown absolutely nothing in her 9 career starts, but I think the sprint/route/sprint pattern bodes well for a filly that has shown some speed on occasion and faded. She’ll give you a square price – that much is certain.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
The day after
Yesterday's bridge collapse has me a bit dispassionate about posting something as frivolous as picks on horse races. That said, it is important to move on after disaster. Here are the picks, if you feel the urge to play.
Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile
1 – Par Five in Two – All signs point toward this one here. He’ll definitely be favored and appears to be the lone speed in a field short of talented runners. Formidable.
6 – Fiddy Cents – If the above falters down the stretch again, this gelding will have the first chance to assume the lead. He’s been improving with each start over the local dirt and another step forward gets him the money.
2 – Turtle Mountain – I don’t really understand why the connections here insist on routing him. He was a competitive sprinter and I’m not sure that two turns is his game. That said, he gave a decent effort last out and was in contention until the closers shuffled him back to fourth. He’d be a surprise to many, but I think there’s a chance.
Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Tour Me Honey – This is a pretty wide open race, but the baby of the bunch looks most likely. There isn’t much early speed and she may find herself alone on the lead, which is always a good thing. Bell calls the shots and should have this one prominent throughout.
2 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare has given solid efforts this season, but can’t find the winner’s circle. She finds a softer bunch here, but the lack of speed may compromise her late run.
4 – Brigthen My Day – There is no sugar-coating it, this gray mare has been awful, losing by more than 20 lengths in 8 of her last 10 efforts. That being her history, she fits here if the price is square…and it will be. She isn’t the best bet, but is as likely as many others here.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Puff N Smoke – Smoke Glacken’s kids have been winning on this turf course this season and this filly figures prominently. She had a bad trip in her last, but ran first or second in her previous three efforts. She’ll be near the lead throughout and has a chance to last.
4 – Peakaboo Irish – She made up a ton of ground late in her last, which suggests she’ll take smartly to the extra furlong of this contest. She’s not exactly bred for the sod, but with her last effort and Butler aboard, she figures tough to beat.
6 – Graceful Touch – She also closed the gap behind the above in her last. Martinez stays aboard and stands a good chance of hitting the board with this chestnut filly.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Fancy for Ghazi – She won’t be the favorite, which makes her very playable here at a square price. She ran a solid race in last effort behind a runaway winner in Bump’ndazzle. This one actually finished the race in 1:00 and 3/5th seconds. That has been fast enough to win at this level. The pace here figures to be hot which may set this one up to collect the check. You also get the 1A Digi’s Luck as an added bonus for investing here.
4 – Dette’s Dream – This one will be the favorite. She missed by a nose when the above’s ½ sister caught her at the wire. I can’t fault you for betting this one as she seems most likely, but the price will be skinny.
5 – Playit – This girl will make her career debut tonight. She sports a fair workout tab leading up to her debut and could capitalize if the above falter.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Minnesota Mafia – This race features another group of Minnesota-bred baby girls. I’m going to take a shot with some first timers here. This one has had some very impressive workouts leading up to tonight, but no bullet workouts, which may present a little hidden value as she doesn’t jump off the page. Trainer Gary Sherer is winning with 29% of his runners on the meet and could earn some more cash here.
3 – Friendly Soul – This affair isn’t exactly full of talent, so I’ll continue picking debutantes. This girl also features a couple impressive workouts and gets the services of Dean Butler who has put 47% of his starters in the money. Expect at least a minor share.
6 – Bri Bri – I’ll say one thing about this filly, she’s consistent. She’s started four times in her lifetime and has run third in every one of them. If any of the experienced runners are going to hit the board, it will be this one.
Race 6: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Keep It – This guy was previously running against allowance company without much success. Leading trainer Mac Robertson dropped him into the claiming ranks and scored against a similar group in his race. There appears to be a ton of early speed here which should set up a nice stalking trip for this one to get the money again.
4 – Strum Bum – The Bum has grown up before my eyes this season. He has one speed – fast. He’ll break sharply and look for the lead right away and he’ll stay there until he gets tired. Last season, he’d stop about 200 yards from the finish and let others pass. This season he’s shown the ability to carry that speed farther. We’ll see if he’s all grown up tonight, as this is the toughest bunch he’s had to face yet.
7 – Ber Bear – This guy might be the x-factor tonight. She’s shown a propensity to want the lead which could be his demise, though he’s also shown a ton of heart. He drops a bit in class for Jamie Ness and T.D. Houghton and would be no surprise at the end.
Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
8 – Sir Tricky – He just ran a sharp second in the Blair’s Cove stakes and should get plenty of pace to set up his late kick. Value could be a problem.
5 – Lite Brigade – He led most of the way in his last effort before Bobadieu passed him late. He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight, but he’s shown a ton of heart and has finished first or second in 9 straight efforts.
1 – Trickyville Dew – This classy Minnesotan is 5 for 6 in the money at Canterbury and should be charging late. If the above and number 4 Runnin’ the River duel each other into the ground, this guy will be a chief beneficiary.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
5 – Hurry’s Fighter – This guy has been fighting for his first win all season, but continues to run into buzz saws. For example, Betting Ladd positively crushed in his last race while running second. This one finished the race in about 1:06, which has been good enough before. The foes are pretty frail which may get him the diploma.
1 – Saints Surrounded – On the surface this looks like a reach, but he has a good work over the surface and drops into a soft spot against Minnesota claimers after taking on an open special weight field in Chicago. He’ll be ignored and offer good value.
9 – Just Josh’n – He’s 0 for 17 on his career, which make him tough to back, but he’s run well lately. There isn’t much for talent here, so there’s a chance.
Race 9: 10,000 Claiming, 350 Yards
6 – Dans the Man – He runs very well at this distance factors prominently against these.
3 – Mr Special Colors – Ran behind a couple very nice one in Trevors Easy Tipper and Callies Corona in his last. Might be good enough here.
4 – Rs Kir Royale – She finished a ½ length behind the top choice in her last and could turn the tables tonight.
Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile
1 – Par Five in Two – All signs point toward this one here. He’ll definitely be favored and appears to be the lone speed in a field short of talented runners. Formidable.
6 – Fiddy Cents – If the above falters down the stretch again, this gelding will have the first chance to assume the lead. He’s been improving with each start over the local dirt and another step forward gets him the money.
2 – Turtle Mountain – I don’t really understand why the connections here insist on routing him. He was a competitive sprinter and I’m not sure that two turns is his game. That said, he gave a decent effort last out and was in contention until the closers shuffled him back to fourth. He’d be a surprise to many, but I think there’s a chance.
Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Tour Me Honey – This is a pretty wide open race, but the baby of the bunch looks most likely. There isn’t much early speed and she may find herself alone on the lead, which is always a good thing. Bell calls the shots and should have this one prominent throughout.
2 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare has given solid efforts this season, but can’t find the winner’s circle. She finds a softer bunch here, but the lack of speed may compromise her late run.
4 – Brigthen My Day – There is no sugar-coating it, this gray mare has been awful, losing by more than 20 lengths in 8 of her last 10 efforts. That being her history, she fits here if the price is square…and it will be. She isn’t the best bet, but is as likely as many others here.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Puff N Smoke – Smoke Glacken’s kids have been winning on this turf course this season and this filly figures prominently. She had a bad trip in her last, but ran first or second in her previous three efforts. She’ll be near the lead throughout and has a chance to last.
4 – Peakaboo Irish – She made up a ton of ground late in her last, which suggests she’ll take smartly to the extra furlong of this contest. She’s not exactly bred for the sod, but with her last effort and Butler aboard, she figures tough to beat.
6 – Graceful Touch – She also closed the gap behind the above in her last. Martinez stays aboard and stands a good chance of hitting the board with this chestnut filly.
Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Fancy for Ghazi – She won’t be the favorite, which makes her very playable here at a square price. She ran a solid race in last effort behind a runaway winner in Bump’ndazzle. This one actually finished the race in 1:00 and 3/5th seconds. That has been fast enough to win at this level. The pace here figures to be hot which may set this one up to collect the check. You also get the 1A Digi’s Luck as an added bonus for investing here.
4 – Dette’s Dream – This one will be the favorite. She missed by a nose when the above’s ½ sister caught her at the wire. I can’t fault you for betting this one as she seems most likely, but the price will be skinny.
5 – Playit – This girl will make her career debut tonight. She sports a fair workout tab leading up to her debut and could capitalize if the above falter.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Minnesota Mafia – This race features another group of Minnesota-bred baby girls. I’m going to take a shot with some first timers here. This one has had some very impressive workouts leading up to tonight, but no bullet workouts, which may present a little hidden value as she doesn’t jump off the page. Trainer Gary Sherer is winning with 29% of his runners on the meet and could earn some more cash here.
3 – Friendly Soul – This affair isn’t exactly full of talent, so I’ll continue picking debutantes. This girl also features a couple impressive workouts and gets the services of Dean Butler who has put 47% of his starters in the money. Expect at least a minor share.
6 – Bri Bri – I’ll say one thing about this filly, she’s consistent. She’s started four times in her lifetime and has run third in every one of them. If any of the experienced runners are going to hit the board, it will be this one.
Race 6: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Keep It – This guy was previously running against allowance company without much success. Leading trainer Mac Robertson dropped him into the claiming ranks and scored against a similar group in his race. There appears to be a ton of early speed here which should set up a nice stalking trip for this one to get the money again.
4 – Strum Bum – The Bum has grown up before my eyes this season. He has one speed – fast. He’ll break sharply and look for the lead right away and he’ll stay there until he gets tired. Last season, he’d stop about 200 yards from the finish and let others pass. This season he’s shown the ability to carry that speed farther. We’ll see if he’s all grown up tonight, as this is the toughest bunch he’s had to face yet.
7 – Ber Bear – This guy might be the x-factor tonight. She’s shown a propensity to want the lead which could be his demise, though he’s also shown a ton of heart. He drops a bit in class for Jamie Ness and T.D. Houghton and would be no surprise at the end.
Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
8 – Sir Tricky – He just ran a sharp second in the Blair’s Cove stakes and should get plenty of pace to set up his late kick. Value could be a problem.
5 – Lite Brigade – He led most of the way in his last effort before Bobadieu passed him late. He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight, but he’s shown a ton of heart and has finished first or second in 9 straight efforts.
1 – Trickyville Dew – This classy Minnesotan is 5 for 6 in the money at Canterbury and should be charging late. If the above and number 4 Runnin’ the River duel each other into the ground, this guy will be a chief beneficiary.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
5 – Hurry’s Fighter – This guy has been fighting for his first win all season, but continues to run into buzz saws. For example, Betting Ladd positively crushed in his last race while running second. This one finished the race in about 1:06, which has been good enough before. The foes are pretty frail which may get him the diploma.
1 – Saints Surrounded – On the surface this looks like a reach, but he has a good work over the surface and drops into a soft spot against Minnesota claimers after taking on an open special weight field in Chicago. He’ll be ignored and offer good value.
9 – Just Josh’n – He’s 0 for 17 on his career, which make him tough to back, but he’s run well lately. There isn’t much for talent here, so there’s a chance.
Race 9: 10,000 Claiming, 350 Yards
6 – Dans the Man – He runs very well at this distance factors prominently against these.
3 – Mr Special Colors – Ran behind a couple very nice one in Trevors Easy Tipper and Callies Corona in his last. Might be good enough here.
4 – Rs Kir Royale – She finished a ½ length behind the top choice in her last and could turn the tables tonight.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)