I’d like to take a moment today to present some thoughts on trends and statistics in the jockey’s room at Canterbury this season. There are only 21 race days left from what just a couple months ago was a full schedule of 68 racing days. With 47 days gone, I can conservatively estimate that I have seen, either live or recorded, about 95% of the races. Here are some statistical oddities and trends thus far this season.
Jockey Standings (through 7/29 below)
Rank Jockey Mounts Win Place Show Earnings Win % In the $ % Avg Earnings
1 Paul M. Nolan 275 55 43 47 $764,990 20.00% 52.73% 2,781.78
2 Derek C. Bell 216 54 33 25 $708,240 25.00% 51.85% 3,278.89
3 Seth B. Martinez 212 41 45 24 $650,264 19.34% 51.89% 3,067.28
4 Jesse Jimenez Garcia 189 32 36 22 $499,763 16.93% 47.62% 2,644.25
5 Juan G. Rivera 194 29 21 23 $427,465 14.95% 37.63% 2,203.43
6 Dean P. Butler 149 24 29 17 $370,840 16.11% 46.98% 2,488.86
7 Scott A. Stevens 175 24 18 27 $352,588 13.71% 39.43% 2,014.79
8 Tanner Riggs 211 19 34 27 $274,707 9.00% 37.91% 1,301.93
9 Nik G. Goodwin 174 16 19 22 $254,659 9.20% 32.76% 1,463.56
10 Dylan R. Williams 118 12 12 19 $180,238 10.17% 36.44% 1,527.44
11 Ry Eikleberry 114 9 13 18 $126,237 7.89% 35.09% 1,107.34
12 Alberto Pusac 135 9 8 19 $113,709 6.67% 26.67% 842.29
13 Lori Keith 45 9 4 12 $85,834 20.00% 55.56% 1,907.42
14 Adolfo A. Morales 98 8 12 12 $133,718 8.16% 32.65% 1,364.47
15 Martin Escobar 113 7 11 12 $171,992 6.19% 26.55% 1,522.05
16 Tho Nguyen 69 7 8 8 $97,911 10.14% 33.33% 1,419.00
17 Jake Olesiak 57 5 6 6 $70,112 8.77% 29.82% 1,230.04
18 Anne Von Rosen 68 5 5 8 $105,153 7.35% 26.47% 1,546.37
19 Keith Davis 110 4 7 9 $64,000 3.64% 18.18% 581.82
20 Michael G. Ziegler 58 4 3 8 $44,758 6.90% 25.86% 771.69
It should surprise no one to see last year’s leading jockey Paul Nolan and four time riding champ Derek Bell dueling for the lead here. On the surface, it is a bit surprising that Seth Martinez has fallen so far behind. Then again, when he and Mac Robertson had their falling out, most of Mac’s best horses went to Bell, so I guess it’s not that surprising.
Generally, you would expect the percentages of wins and running in the money to follow a similar pattern. For the most part, that pattern holds as you go down the standings, but a few jockeys stand out. Dean Butler wins his fair share of races, but puts an amazing 47% of his mounts in the money. Also, Lori Keith has only climbed aboard 45 steeds, but has won with 20% of them, which is better than everyone except Nolan and Bell and she owns the highest percentage of runners in the money with better than 55%. From now on, I’d consider every Butler and Keith mount live and they’d all be a must use in the superfecta for sure, if not the trifecta.
I’d also note the uncharacteristically poor showings by Adolfo Morales and Martin Escobar. Escobar historically wins at a 12-15% clip during his summers in Minnesota, but he has managed only 6% winners thus far. He’s had a rough first few months of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wakes up in August on some horses with some tall prices. Similarly, we are getting to point in the season where Adolfo Morales typically starts rattling off victories. I remember watching the races last August when Morales won something like nine races in a weekend. That may or may not happen again this year, but he’s another one that may pilot some prices home as the season winds down.
Lastly, how does Keith Davis continue to get mounts? He’s only hitting the board with 18% of them and has the lowest earnings per start among the top 20 jockeys. I’m not saying the guy can’t ride, I mean, he did totally dominate the ostrich race on Extreme Day, but stats don’t lie. Maybe he’s just in a slump. I don’t remember him riding at Canterbury before, so maybe he dominates Turf Paradise in the winter or something.
Some people swear by jockeys and even bet solely by them. I’m more of a trainer guy, but taking into account the jockey on your horse, and potentially the reason he/she is there, can give some hints about how the horse may run. I’m working on a more thorough look into jockey and trainer stats and hope to present those in the next week or so. In the mean time, look for Thursday’s picks sometime on Thursday afternoon.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Jock Talk
Friday, July 27, 2007
Guys night out
Friday's card at Canterbury is all about the boys, with six of the nine races posting no girls allowed signs. Thanks to last night's rain, the pick six carryover grew by 40% and now sits just above $7k. This is the point where more off track money starts to show up. Prior to now, we only had to beat the local money, which is largely made up of a few savvy individuals and a ton of casual players. Although it happened earlier this year, scooping the pick six isn't likely at this point.
Last night's picks were alright, though I deserve mulligans for the races washed off the grass. I did have the pick 4 and the race 6 and 7 trifecta, with the latter paying $214.90 for a dollar. Top picks won three races and were in the money in all but two. Fair, but could be better.
Tonight I will also take a look at the early pick four at Prairie Meadows. It's a 50 cent minimum wager starting on race two. Without further delay, here is tonight's analysis.
Race 1: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Bella Notte – This debutante enters the race with a solid work out tab in a field that appears short on talent. If the favorite proves mortal, this one stands to benefit.
5 – Somerset Wish – This filly is the logical favorite and is in a relatively soft spot. She lost last time to a promising filly named Sucara. Bell keeps the mount and appears tough.
1 – Alacazar – You could do worse than playing this filly on her second career start. She raced between horses in Iowa against open company before fading badly. She’s trained fairly on this track and drops into a statebred field. The rail won three consecutive races last night. If she gets a clean trip, she could be there in the end.
Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Zoombyu – I don’t recall what the field looked like on paper, but sending the one off at 12-1 should have been a felony. Despite starting his career at 4, this guy is now 2 for 3 in the money and will make his second trip off the layoff. Unless the firsters show speed, this one may be alone on the lead, too. 12-1 won’t be there, but 3-1 might be, and that would be just fine with me.
8 – Polished Britely – He was caught wide and lost a lot of ground last out which compromised his stalking trip. The pace scenario should favor his style, but he’ll likely be heavy chalk. Likely, but no value.
7 – Blue by Your – This first time starter put in a five furlong sizzler a week ago and looks to repeat or improve upon that today. The pedigree says this is his distance.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – J T Kingfisher – He went favored in his last, but failed to run down Cedarwood who was very sharp that evening. J T’s slow late gain suggests that he will relish the extra furlong in this affair and will be tough to beat.
3 – Smoke Baby – This one has failed while favored twice in a row, but this season we’ve seen ample evidence that Smoke Glacken’s kids like the Canterbury Lawn. Angel Smoke and With Smoke have both broken their maidens on this course this season and their brother may not be far behind. He’ll make a late run, but Riggs has to get him interested sooner than Martinez has.
1 – Powerful Pepper – He got bumped and faded to eighth in his last, but if you forgive that effort and factor in the bullet on July 17, this guy figures prominently.
Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – Chaska – This event features the first, third and fourth finishers of the Blair’s Cove Stakes. Logic would suggest the winner of that is the one to beat. I disagree and I’ll take the show horse. Chaska has savored this lawn, running in the money in all four efforts over it, including a career best effort in his last. As a four year old, he may still be improving, which doesn’t bode well for the competition.
1 – Thrill of Victory – Horses that ship in from Iowa do so for one reason, and it isn’t for the purses…it’s to run on the grass. Trainer Thad Keller has sent 11 horses north this season and three have found victory and three more ran in the money. The turf breeding here is fair and he could offer a square price.
4 – Beau Named Sue – He was close in the Blair’s Cove, but didn’t have enough late. With a solid Sunday work, Butler should guide him to a better share of the purse tonight.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This is a wide open affair of 9 colts and geldings. I’ll go green here with this class dropper. He tried the turf in his last and showed next to nothing. The last time he sprinted, he got caught in a four-headed pace battle and faltered to fifth. He’s essentially moving from allowance company to 7,500 statebred claimers. It raises some questions, but he should be tough.
8 – Samislew – He figures to be part of the pace makeup, and has given sharp effort in his last two. He drops down a notch in the claiming ranks as well and stands a fair shot.
3 – Thirty Below Zero – There are a number of speed merchants here which may set up a nice stalking trip with Houghton aboard. He also drops a bit in class and wouldn’t be too big of a surprise.
Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
6 – Expect Colonial – This colt ships in from Lone Star and steps up in class. He fits from a speed figure perspective, too. Usually I don’t pay attention to who owns the horses because the trainer really calls the shots, but Balkrisna Sukharan is having one of the most statistically improbable seasons I’ve seen. He’s had 11 starters, 8 have one and another placed. He’s winning at a 73% clip! Ness calls the shots and wins 30% of his starters this season. He doesn’t jump off the page so there may be some value.
1 – Willy Wompus – He held gamely for second in his last out against statebreds. This is essentially a lateral move class-wise and Nolan and Ness pair up to give this one a shot.
3 – Tonys a Genius – This gelding has had quite meet. He won or placed in his first four starts before bouncing badly in his last effort two weeks ago. A return to his early season form gives him a victory by open lengths.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silver Trippi – I’m on the chalk in this one. This filly ran a very sharp second in her last after winning by 11 lengths to break her maiden. She’s sharp right now and will be tough to beat. Bell takes the irons for Mac Robertson. That duo is winning at a 42% rate.
3 – Holly in Summer – She stumbled coming out of the gate in the Frances Genter and never factored. She won in this exact spot two back. I’m not sure she’s good enough to win, but a small share is in the cards.
4 – Lady L – She also had trouble last out and was bumped early. She’s got a sizzling 4 furlong drill leading into this race and may step up for a piece with Houghton aboard.
Race 8: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Touchofreality – There is a ton of pace in this heat, but this one is certainly the class of the race. She’s never raced at this low of a level. She’s currently off form, but that may not matter against this motley bunch.
9 – Miss Tricky – The hot pace scenario here sets up this mare beautifully. She didn’t appreciate routing on the turf in her last but closed resolutely at this level and distance two back, but couldn’t catch Goldbrook who was alone on the lead that night. A contested pace may be all this one needs to score. Martinez should sit back and run late.
7 – Hard to Call – Of the speed merchants in this affair, this one appears to be the best suited to taking back a bit and stalking a hot pace. She’s made steady improvement with each race this year and if she can rate, she may fire off the turn and never look back.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Prima Dancer – She drops from special weight competition and sports the best speed figures. And best of all, she’s 12-1 on the morning line. What’s not to like? The 0 for 21.
9 – Rushford – She’s been improving and drops down the claiming ladder. Possible.
1 – Lilly Lady – Broke in air in her last and still ran second. A clean break means a slice.
Prairie Meadows Early Pick 4
Race 2: 26,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Shhh Real Quiet – This four year old son of Real Quiet is 0 for 19 on his career. He appears to have found a nice soft spot to finally get the diploma. Daddy would be proud.
8 – Rose’s Pride – He stumbled badly out of the gate and never factored when trying two turns. That may have served as a glorified workout. The extra stamina might give him a shot against pretty soft company.
4 – Sound of Peace – He’s been working well in the mornings leading up to his second career start. He’ll have to step forward, but it’s possible.
Race 3: 12,500 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1A – Apt to Thrill – This filly takes the plunge from special weights into claiming and looks tough. She ran a couple clunkers on the poly at Arlington and seemed to appreciate getting back to the dirt in her last. Big chance.
2 – Betyourpaycheck – This well-named filly also drops from specials and has been improving with each trip. Another step forward means graduation.
5 – Miss Sinner – She sat a great stalking trip last time and missed by a nose. She may be allowed to grab the early lead and coast to victory if she doesn’t get pressured.
Race 4: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Acreditado – The Brazilian is dropped down in the claiming ranks after winning handily in his last. I don’t truly understand it, but trainer Dick Clark spots his horses extremely well. Trust he’s doing what’s right.
7 – Sharkille O’Neal – This guy is a Prairie Meadows classic and always takes money at the windows. He too falls out of a higher claiming tag after a daylight victory. At 4 he’s likely still improving as he just ran a career best.
1 – Wallstreetgangster – He blew up the tote board in Shakopee two back after getting a good stalking trip. He ran fairly while wide here in his last. Look for improvement.
Race 5: 26,120 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Sammymae – This black beauty is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money with two W’s. Her form is impeccable right now and she moves up in class. There are a ton of positives to counter the wide post.
1 – Her Baby Blues – This girl closed sharply in her last effort. If the above slows down on the leads, this one will be right there to make her earn it.
4 – Sweetpike – She always gives an honest effort. If Birzer can get her involved early, her even running style might allow her to earn a share.
The ticket: 50 cent pick 4
Race 2: 1,4,8
Race 3: 1A
Race 4: 3,7
Race 5: 1,4,9
Cost: $9
Last night's picks were alright, though I deserve mulligans for the races washed off the grass. I did have the pick 4 and the race 6 and 7 trifecta, with the latter paying $214.90 for a dollar. Top picks won three races and were in the money in all but two. Fair, but could be better.
Tonight I will also take a look at the early pick four at Prairie Meadows. It's a 50 cent minimum wager starting on race two. Without further delay, here is tonight's analysis.
Race 1: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Bella Notte – This debutante enters the race with a solid work out tab in a field that appears short on talent. If the favorite proves mortal, this one stands to benefit.
5 – Somerset Wish – This filly is the logical favorite and is in a relatively soft spot. She lost last time to a promising filly named Sucara. Bell keeps the mount and appears tough.
1 – Alacazar – You could do worse than playing this filly on her second career start. She raced between horses in Iowa against open company before fading badly. She’s trained fairly on this track and drops into a statebred field. The rail won three consecutive races last night. If she gets a clean trip, she could be there in the end.
Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Zoombyu – I don’t recall what the field looked like on paper, but sending the one off at 12-1 should have been a felony. Despite starting his career at 4, this guy is now 2 for 3 in the money and will make his second trip off the layoff. Unless the firsters show speed, this one may be alone on the lead, too. 12-1 won’t be there, but 3-1 might be, and that would be just fine with me.
8 – Polished Britely – He was caught wide and lost a lot of ground last out which compromised his stalking trip. The pace scenario should favor his style, but he’ll likely be heavy chalk. Likely, but no value.
7 – Blue by Your – This first time starter put in a five furlong sizzler a week ago and looks to repeat or improve upon that today. The pedigree says this is his distance.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – J T Kingfisher – He went favored in his last, but failed to run down Cedarwood who was very sharp that evening. J T’s slow late gain suggests that he will relish the extra furlong in this affair and will be tough to beat.
3 – Smoke Baby – This one has failed while favored twice in a row, but this season we’ve seen ample evidence that Smoke Glacken’s kids like the Canterbury Lawn. Angel Smoke and With Smoke have both broken their maidens on this course this season and their brother may not be far behind. He’ll make a late run, but Riggs has to get him interested sooner than Martinez has.
1 – Powerful Pepper – He got bumped and faded to eighth in his last, but if you forgive that effort and factor in the bullet on July 17, this guy figures prominently.
Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – Chaska – This event features the first, third and fourth finishers of the Blair’s Cove Stakes. Logic would suggest the winner of that is the one to beat. I disagree and I’ll take the show horse. Chaska has savored this lawn, running in the money in all four efforts over it, including a career best effort in his last. As a four year old, he may still be improving, which doesn’t bode well for the competition.
1 – Thrill of Victory – Horses that ship in from Iowa do so for one reason, and it isn’t for the purses…it’s to run on the grass. Trainer Thad Keller has sent 11 horses north this season and three have found victory and three more ran in the money. The turf breeding here is fair and he could offer a square price.
4 – Beau Named Sue – He was close in the Blair’s Cove, but didn’t have enough late. With a solid Sunday work, Butler should guide him to a better share of the purse tonight.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This is a wide open affair of 9 colts and geldings. I’ll go green here with this class dropper. He tried the turf in his last and showed next to nothing. The last time he sprinted, he got caught in a four-headed pace battle and faltered to fifth. He’s essentially moving from allowance company to 7,500 statebred claimers. It raises some questions, but he should be tough.
8 – Samislew – He figures to be part of the pace makeup, and has given sharp effort in his last two. He drops down a notch in the claiming ranks as well and stands a fair shot.
3 – Thirty Below Zero – There are a number of speed merchants here which may set up a nice stalking trip with Houghton aboard. He also drops a bit in class and wouldn’t be too big of a surprise.
Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
6 – Expect Colonial – This colt ships in from Lone Star and steps up in class. He fits from a speed figure perspective, too. Usually I don’t pay attention to who owns the horses because the trainer really calls the shots, but Balkrisna Sukharan is having one of the most statistically improbable seasons I’ve seen. He’s had 11 starters, 8 have one and another placed. He’s winning at a 73% clip! Ness calls the shots and wins 30% of his starters this season. He doesn’t jump off the page so there may be some value.
1 – Willy Wompus – He held gamely for second in his last out against statebreds. This is essentially a lateral move class-wise and Nolan and Ness pair up to give this one a shot.
3 – Tonys a Genius – This gelding has had quite meet. He won or placed in his first four starts before bouncing badly in his last effort two weeks ago. A return to his early season form gives him a victory by open lengths.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silver Trippi – I’m on the chalk in this one. This filly ran a very sharp second in her last after winning by 11 lengths to break her maiden. She’s sharp right now and will be tough to beat. Bell takes the irons for Mac Robertson. That duo is winning at a 42% rate.
3 – Holly in Summer – She stumbled coming out of the gate in the Frances Genter and never factored. She won in this exact spot two back. I’m not sure she’s good enough to win, but a small share is in the cards.
4 – Lady L – She also had trouble last out and was bumped early. She’s got a sizzling 4 furlong drill leading into this race and may step up for a piece with Houghton aboard.
Race 8: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Touchofreality – There is a ton of pace in this heat, but this one is certainly the class of the race. She’s never raced at this low of a level. She’s currently off form, but that may not matter against this motley bunch.
9 – Miss Tricky – The hot pace scenario here sets up this mare beautifully. She didn’t appreciate routing on the turf in her last but closed resolutely at this level and distance two back, but couldn’t catch Goldbrook who was alone on the lead that night. A contested pace may be all this one needs to score. Martinez should sit back and run late.
7 – Hard to Call – Of the speed merchants in this affair, this one appears to be the best suited to taking back a bit and stalking a hot pace. She’s made steady improvement with each race this year and if she can rate, she may fire off the turn and never look back.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Prima Dancer – She drops from special weight competition and sports the best speed figures. And best of all, she’s 12-1 on the morning line. What’s not to like? The 0 for 21.
9 – Rushford – She’s been improving and drops down the claiming ladder. Possible.
1 – Lilly Lady – Broke in air in her last and still ran second. A clean break means a slice.
Prairie Meadows Early Pick 4
Race 2: 26,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Shhh Real Quiet – This four year old son of Real Quiet is 0 for 19 on his career. He appears to have found a nice soft spot to finally get the diploma. Daddy would be proud.
8 – Rose’s Pride – He stumbled badly out of the gate and never factored when trying two turns. That may have served as a glorified workout. The extra stamina might give him a shot against pretty soft company.
4 – Sound of Peace – He’s been working well in the mornings leading up to his second career start. He’ll have to step forward, but it’s possible.
Race 3: 12,500 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1A – Apt to Thrill – This filly takes the plunge from special weights into claiming and looks tough. She ran a couple clunkers on the poly at Arlington and seemed to appreciate getting back to the dirt in her last. Big chance.
2 – Betyourpaycheck – This well-named filly also drops from specials and has been improving with each trip. Another step forward means graduation.
5 – Miss Sinner – She sat a great stalking trip last time and missed by a nose. She may be allowed to grab the early lead and coast to victory if she doesn’t get pressured.
Race 4: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Acreditado – The Brazilian is dropped down in the claiming ranks after winning handily in his last. I don’t truly understand it, but trainer Dick Clark spots his horses extremely well. Trust he’s doing what’s right.
7 – Sharkille O’Neal – This guy is a Prairie Meadows classic and always takes money at the windows. He too falls out of a higher claiming tag after a daylight victory. At 4 he’s likely still improving as he just ran a career best.
1 – Wallstreetgangster – He blew up the tote board in Shakopee two back after getting a good stalking trip. He ran fairly while wide here in his last. Look for improvement.
Race 5: 26,120 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Sammymae – This black beauty is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money with two W’s. Her form is impeccable right now and she moves up in class. There are a ton of positives to counter the wide post.
1 – Her Baby Blues – This girl closed sharply in her last effort. If the above slows down on the leads, this one will be right there to make her earn it.
4 – Sweetpike – She always gives an honest effort. If Birzer can get her involved early, her even running style might allow her to earn a share.
The ticket: 50 cent pick 4
Race 2: 1,4,8
Race 3: 1A
Race 4: 3,7
Race 5: 1,4,9
Cost: $9
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Buck Night Picks
We enter buck night tonight with over $5k in the pick 6 pool. Thank you Extreme Day. We've got a pretty decent nice race card tonight. Let's see what we kind of damage we can do tonight...
Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Rapid Jack – This guy makes his second trip off the layoff and definitely figures in this race. He’s three for four in the money on the Canterbury dirt and if he improves off his tightener, he should be right there in the end.
1 – Whatashotzie – This race features a group of horses that haven’t run much at Canterbury. This gelding ships in from Arlington where he ran a solid second against claimers. He steps up in class and may get a good ride on the lead.
5 – Supernovace – This one went favored in his last, but ran into a monster effort by Kitty Litter. He’ll likely go favored here as well. He stands every right to win this, but he hasn’t shown the killer instinct, so I’ll try to beat him with the above pair.
Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – O.G. Hunter – He’s faltered at short odds a couple of times, but he definitely fits here. Two back he ran a very solid third at this distance. A similar effort puts him right in the mix…and maybe in the winner’s circle.
4 – Island Doc – This one is the logical favorite having just missed under these conditions in his last. However, he drifted out a bit in that effort, suggesting he was tired. Marvin Johnson sends him back after two weeks off. If he fires his best, he’ll win, but he’s vulnerable. He also lures T.D. Houghton into the saddle. I continue to believe we can make some money playing his horses as he’s still an unknown to the local players.
7 – Jestintime – He should appreciate a continued drop down the class ladder and figures to be part of a pace scenario that appears devoid of significant speed. If he doesn’t get too much pressure, he’ll hit the board.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
1 – Byefornow – This little lady has carried Jesse Garcia on the lead to the stretch in both previous efforts before being caught late. Contrary to its historical closer bias, speed has held well on the lawn this season. I’m not sure the extra distance helps any, but the early lead should be hers again…and Garcia knows how to handle such a situation.
5 – Casino Carol – If the above gets caught late again, it might be by the gray filly. She made up a ton of ground late in her last. Expect Houghton to sit back and fire big late.
7 – Union Camp – She ran third behind Byefornow in her last. She sat a good trip just off the pace, but didn’t have enough of a kick to get past the top two. Expect similar.
Race 4: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – V’ville Lady – This is the best bet of the night. She’s been scratched out of her last two entries when washed off the sod. She takes a drop into the claiming ranks and brings Martinez back into the irons. Formidable.
6 – Gracious Halo – This mare continues to improve this season and switches back to the Canterbury turf where she’s two for three in the money, despite not winning. She’ll be charging late and give you a thrill.
1 – Close Clearance – This lady has been off since October, but returns to a surface where she ran very well late last season. Jack McCartney finally broke through with victory one on the season on Friday. This one isn’t likely, but possible.
Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
1 – Dakota Hills – If the last race was the easiest to handicap, this is the toughest. All six of these animals are quite possible. I like the inside marker. Mac Robertson sent this guy around two turns two back to build some stamina. He just missed cutting back to his preferred distance in his last and could be tough. The jockey switch from Riggs to Bell is welcomed, too.
4 – Partisan Gold – There is a similar pattern here, except this one makes his first start after the stretch-out. He won on his last ride at 6 furlongs and would be no surprise.
5 – Senor Scat – Trainer Gary Sherer is winning at a ridiculous 31% clip this season, which means he’s been spotting his horses well. This is a contentious field, but the scat could be right there.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
3 – Oriental Tara – She’s only eligible for this race on a technicality…she was dq’d after her jockey accidentally hit a foe in the nose with the whip down the stretch, despite crossing the wire first. The field won’t get that lucky again.
1 – Rule Number One – She appears better suited to the lawn or sprinting on the dirt, but she takes a considerable class drop and her speed figures make her the one to beat. Dean Butler has quietly put 47% of his mounts in the money, too.
6 – Shattered Dreams – Trainer Jamie Ness has been working to get this one more involved early, including victoriously sprinting her in her last. A good start leaves her in contention throughout.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Struttinherstuff – She’s 7 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury dirt and looms tough to beat here. Garcia should sit just off the pace and take over late.
1 – Somerset Girl – This filly has shown some talent this season and has run in some pretty good company. A drop into the claiming ranks for the first time might be just what the doctor ordered for career win number two.
9 – Big Alibaba – She’s been improving lately and just missed at this level in her last. There is a bunch of early speed here which could set up her stalking trip.
11 – Stitznwolf – She’ll also be charging late and could add some juice to the superfecta.
Race 8: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile
2 – Silent Preacher – A contentious battle of maidens wraps up the pick 6. This one is 0 for 20 in his career, but in the money 50% of the time. He steps up in class after just missing against claimers twice in a row. He figures to get a good trip from post 2. Is tonight the night for him to finally graduate?
5 – Sahm Valentine – This one figures to go favored in the end. He gave a solid effort when running third in his last. Going two turns again should suit him fine.
6 – Lowell Dean – He shifts back into the special weight division after having a nightmarishly wide trip in his last. Bell climbs in the irons and should put this one into the mix early and often.
Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 300 yards
4 – Hyla – In the Q nightcap, I’ll take this filly. She just missed against 10,000 claimers last out and looks pretty tough.
3 – Mr de Quacker – This sorrel gelding could also take the prize. He drops out of the same race as the above where he was beaten by daylight. If he gets away cleanly, he could make life difficult for the field.
5 – Ground Candy – He’s been in the money in four straight and ran a career best last out. A hot horse is a good horse to play.
Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Rapid Jack – This guy makes his second trip off the layoff and definitely figures in this race. He’s three for four in the money on the Canterbury dirt and if he improves off his tightener, he should be right there in the end.
1 – Whatashotzie – This race features a group of horses that haven’t run much at Canterbury. This gelding ships in from Arlington where he ran a solid second against claimers. He steps up in class and may get a good ride on the lead.
5 – Supernovace – This one went favored in his last, but ran into a monster effort by Kitty Litter. He’ll likely go favored here as well. He stands every right to win this, but he hasn’t shown the killer instinct, so I’ll try to beat him with the above pair.
Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – O.G. Hunter – He’s faltered at short odds a couple of times, but he definitely fits here. Two back he ran a very solid third at this distance. A similar effort puts him right in the mix…and maybe in the winner’s circle.
4 – Island Doc – This one is the logical favorite having just missed under these conditions in his last. However, he drifted out a bit in that effort, suggesting he was tired. Marvin Johnson sends him back after two weeks off. If he fires his best, he’ll win, but he’s vulnerable. He also lures T.D. Houghton into the saddle. I continue to believe we can make some money playing his horses as he’s still an unknown to the local players.
7 – Jestintime – He should appreciate a continued drop down the class ladder and figures to be part of a pace scenario that appears devoid of significant speed. If he doesn’t get too much pressure, he’ll hit the board.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
1 – Byefornow – This little lady has carried Jesse Garcia on the lead to the stretch in both previous efforts before being caught late. Contrary to its historical closer bias, speed has held well on the lawn this season. I’m not sure the extra distance helps any, but the early lead should be hers again…and Garcia knows how to handle such a situation.
5 – Casino Carol – If the above gets caught late again, it might be by the gray filly. She made up a ton of ground late in her last. Expect Houghton to sit back and fire big late.
7 – Union Camp – She ran third behind Byefornow in her last. She sat a good trip just off the pace, but didn’t have enough of a kick to get past the top two. Expect similar.
Race 4: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – V’ville Lady – This is the best bet of the night. She’s been scratched out of her last two entries when washed off the sod. She takes a drop into the claiming ranks and brings Martinez back into the irons. Formidable.
6 – Gracious Halo – This mare continues to improve this season and switches back to the Canterbury turf where she’s two for three in the money, despite not winning. She’ll be charging late and give you a thrill.
1 – Close Clearance – This lady has been off since October, but returns to a surface where she ran very well late last season. Jack McCartney finally broke through with victory one on the season on Friday. This one isn’t likely, but possible.
Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
1 – Dakota Hills – If the last race was the easiest to handicap, this is the toughest. All six of these animals are quite possible. I like the inside marker. Mac Robertson sent this guy around two turns two back to build some stamina. He just missed cutting back to his preferred distance in his last and could be tough. The jockey switch from Riggs to Bell is welcomed, too.
4 – Partisan Gold – There is a similar pattern here, except this one makes his first start after the stretch-out. He won on his last ride at 6 furlongs and would be no surprise.
5 – Senor Scat – Trainer Gary Sherer is winning at a ridiculous 31% clip this season, which means he’s been spotting his horses well. This is a contentious field, but the scat could be right there.
Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
3 – Oriental Tara – She’s only eligible for this race on a technicality…she was dq’d after her jockey accidentally hit a foe in the nose with the whip down the stretch, despite crossing the wire first. The field won’t get that lucky again.
1 – Rule Number One – She appears better suited to the lawn or sprinting on the dirt, but she takes a considerable class drop and her speed figures make her the one to beat. Dean Butler has quietly put 47% of his mounts in the money, too.
6 – Shattered Dreams – Trainer Jamie Ness has been working to get this one more involved early, including victoriously sprinting her in her last. A good start leaves her in contention throughout.
Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Struttinherstuff – She’s 7 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury dirt and looms tough to beat here. Garcia should sit just off the pace and take over late.
1 – Somerset Girl – This filly has shown some talent this season and has run in some pretty good company. A drop into the claiming ranks for the first time might be just what the doctor ordered for career win number two.
9 – Big Alibaba – She’s been improving lately and just missed at this level in her last. There is a bunch of early speed here which could set up her stalking trip.
11 – Stitznwolf – She’ll also be charging late and could add some juice to the superfecta.
Race 8: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile
2 – Silent Preacher – A contentious battle of maidens wraps up the pick 6. This one is 0 for 20 in his career, but in the money 50% of the time. He steps up in class after just missing against claimers twice in a row. He figures to get a good trip from post 2. Is tonight the night for him to finally graduate?
5 – Sahm Valentine – This one figures to go favored in the end. He gave a solid effort when running third in his last. Going two turns again should suit him fine.
6 – Lowell Dean – He shifts back into the special weight division after having a nightmarishly wide trip in his last. Bell climbs in the irons and should put this one into the mix early and often.
Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 300 yards
4 – Hyla – In the Q nightcap, I’ll take this filly. She just missed against 10,000 claimers last out and looks pretty tough.
3 – Mr de Quacker – This sorrel gelding could also take the prize. He drops out of the same race as the above where he was beaten by daylight. If he gets away cleanly, he could make life difficult for the field.
5 – Ground Candy – He’s been in the money in four straight and ran a career best last out. A hot horse is a good horse to play.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Going to Extremes
To those of you that were able to attend Canterbury Park’s Extreme Day, you got quite a treat. I couldn’t make it, but I watched the Dodge Canterbury Report and it appears that all the gimmick races went off without a hitch...well, unless you were assigned to ride an ostrich. Kudos to Keith Davis for handling that. The much talked about battle of the surfaces was dominated by turfers filling the entire super. Icy Tobin dominated a 770 yard mixed breed affair en route to setting a track record. A season high crowd of 16,000 plus took in the afternoon.
As I had expected, payoffs were through the roof, too. Virtually every race offered (except the opener and 5 furlong maiden turf sprint) were run under conditions that, very likely, none of these animals will ever be asked to do again. As such, handicapping the card was a mess. I was thrilled that the pick 6 carried over to Extreme Day as I knew it wouldn’t be hit on such a quirky day. The result? A little better than $5,000 in the pool for buck night action. For those playing the home game, we actually should have emptied that pool on Thursday night at around $2,000. Happily, more than twice that is waiting for us tomorrow night. I’m diligently working on my research and will post my picks for buck night tomorrow morning.
As I had expected, payoffs were through the roof, too. Virtually every race offered (except the opener and 5 furlong maiden turf sprint) were run under conditions that, very likely, none of these animals will ever be asked to do again. As such, handicapping the card was a mess. I was thrilled that the pick 6 carried over to Extreme Day as I knew it wouldn’t be hit on such a quirky day. The result? A little better than $5,000 in the pool for buck night action. For those playing the home game, we actually should have emptied that pool on Thursday night at around $2,000. Happily, more than twice that is waiting for us tomorrow night. I’m diligently working on my research and will post my picks for buck night tomorrow morning.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Friday Free-for-all
Last night’s picks worked out pretty well, with 8 of 9 winners appearing on the sheet, missing only the quarterhorse nightcap. In fact, if you had played the pick six using my picks and only went as deep as needed to get the winner, it would have been a $24 (3,10 w 4,5 w 1,4,5 w 7 w 4,7 w 7) ticket that would have scooped the nearly $2,100 pool that carries over to tonight’s action and been in line for a few of the 5 of 6 payoffs at $55 each. Okay, the single in the last leg was a late scratch which reverted to the betting favorite Betting Ladd who positively crushed the field, but you need a little luck to hit the pick 6. The separator was Arghazi in the fifth race, which also led to an outsized pick 4 payoff of $210 as well.
A few people have e-mailed me asking why I’m posting this. Well, here are a few reasons:
1) I love this game. Ever since I watched Ghost Creek destroy a field of 6 $15,000 claimers in the lid lifter on my first Buck Night on June 23, 2005, I’ve been hooked. Beauty, elegance, emotion and adrenaline all fuse together to make this one of the most riveting sporting events I’ve ever attended. Mix in my penchant for all things nerdy and analyzing speed, form, pace and class just fits right in.
2) As part of my preparation for a night of pari-mutuel equine future investment, I always used to write myself a page or so of notes on each race. This naturally lent itself to a blog…even if it took me two years to figure that out. Yes, these are my actual notes that I take to the track to play. I should have had the pick 6 last night, but I did listen to myself enough.
3) Accountability. When I kept my notes to myself, I didn’t hold myself accountable. Now that the picks are out there, I have no choice but to keep myself honest.
4) To educate. This is such a great game and if I can introduce just one person to it and make them better at it and have some fun with it, that would make this blog more useful than expected.
On a separate note, yes, I play and handicap tracks other than Canterbury Park. However, Canterbury is my home track and during the live season I’ll probably only post about local racing. Throughout the rest of the year, you may find picks and comments posted for other tracks around the country and bonus picks for big races across the country. If you’d like to banter about racing, I welcome your e-mails and/or comments.
Without further delay, let’s look at a competitive Friday card.
Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Par Five in Two – This guy has been knocking on the door at this level for a couple races and looks primed to break through here. He’s tough to play against, despite the short price.
3 – El Inmigrante – This colt takes a step down in class after trailing throughout against 15,000 claimers. He won and placed at that level and unless something is physically wrong, he figures to be prominent here.
5 – Turtle Mountain – Questions abound here, but there is plenty to like. The Turtle has a tendency to show up in the money at goofy prices. New shooter T.D. Houghton has moved up some longer-priced horses in his short tenure at the Park. He’s never tried two turns, but drops in class and his running history tends to show him strengthening as the race progresses. Despite a pedigree that suggests sprints only, he could be the whacky horse that inflates the trifecta or he could fade to last. Goofy, but I’ve got a hunch.
Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
2 – Singitagaingeorge – This guy gets blinkers for the first time and takes the biggest class drop in the sport from special weights to claiming. Houghton takes the mount for owner/trainer Jack McCartney. He’ll appreciate the class relief and his speed figures put him in the mix.
6 – Snowsapassing – After faltering against 15,000 claimers, this one drops back to a level at which he has shown a competitive side. The form cycles suggests improvement which may put him in the winner’s circle.
5 – Mountain Quest – He and the above exchanged bumps early in their last contest, yet this one recovered to be close early and hold 4th at 53-1. A clean trip would put him close to the pace with a shot at the money late.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
10 – Cachemassa Creek – Trainer Bryan Porter has won with 35% of his starters this season and put 14 of 17 (82%) in the money. This colt trailed throughout in his last effort on the dirt and tries the lawn for the first time. The speed figures put him in the mix, and if he can replicate his effort in December in Phoenix, he’ll be tough to beat.
4 – Siphon Ridge – Scott Stevens has been hot of late and climbs about this gelding. This is his third trip off the bench and should be ready to fire a good one.
12 – Thong View – Breaking from the 12 post is no picnic, but Riggs should take back and tuck in behind the speed early, then unleash a closing kick down the lane. The problem is the short run to the turn in a 7 ½ furlong race. If he gets hung wide early, a minor award becomes the ceiling.
Race 4: 17,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – El Tejano – This animal takes a step up into the allowance ranks after defeating 15,000 claimers. There are a lot of changes going on here switching from sprints to routing and dirt to turf, but he’s proven versatile and his pedigree suggests he’ll like this ground. He’ll get a good trip from post 2 and may win.
1 – Louie de Plus – He ships in from Arlington where he has run well over the polytrack. Horses usually translate poly form to the turf quite nicely. It’s also his third race off the bench and could improve enough to score.
5 – Kon Krete Kid – He shipped in from Churchill Downs for his last and ran bravely along the rail, but couldn’t catch Dynamite Will (post 12) late. He should get a fine trip from the five hole be close at the end.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
2/2B – Tail Lights/Valid Discovery – The baby girls had two races last night, but now it’s time for the baby boys. I’ll take the second two for one entry. Both of these animals ran well in their last efforts and seem to be continually improving.
7 – B.B. Hill – He was hung wide throughout in his last effort, but still managed to place a huge odds. If he repeats that effort, he may very well leave all of these in his wake.
1/1A – Tez Sunaman/Sahan – The lovely and talented Tammy Domenosky sends these two postward and both appear live. One of these had a traffic-riddled trip while the other debuts. The works on both are fair and neither would be a big surprise if they hit the ticket.
Race 6: 21,675 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
3 – Watch Me Closely – After dusting a couple of claiming fields, trainer Francisco Bravo moves this mare into the allowance ranks, where I think she’ll do just fine. Bravo won three races on last night’s card and figures to get one here as well. She put in a sizzling work a week ago which doesn’t hurt either.
1 – Heavens Work – The Olesiak brothers tend to win in bunches. They’ve been hot over the last couple weeks and may have a live one here. The pace should be fair which will set up her late kick quite well.
6 – Sucara – Okay, I’ll admit, I’m a bit smitten with Tammy Domenosky, but I think her horse is live in this race, too. She kicked off the July 3 fireworks display early by blowing up the tote board at 22-1 in the nightcap. That price won’t be available here, but Garcia keeps the mount and you should get some excitement for your buck as she passes plenty of these late.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Iron Boy – This guy just likes to win. There’s some competition here and the class level could be problematic, but until he get beat, I’ll keep picking him.
4 – Taco Don – He poses the biggest threat to the above. He won on Cinco de Mayo in allowance company and has only been beaten at this distance by ace sprinters Icy Tobin, Carless Navigator and Sir Tricky. The competition is lighter here and he looms large.
8 – America West – If anyone is going to topple the top pair, it’s this guy. He’s a cagey veteran at age 7, but he makes his third trip off the layoff and has been improving with each start. He just sizzled 3 furlongs in 34 flat last week, too. Houghton gets the call and I wouldn’t be surprised to this one on the board.
Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Paulistanna – This filly has spent much of her career going two turns. In her debut she went 6 furlongs and missed by only 3 parts of a length. She didn’t enjoy the sod in Chicago last out and a return to the dirt will be appreciated.
9 – Affection – The post position won’t be easy to overcome and she has a bad case of seconditis, hence second billing here. She’s been sent off as the favorite in all four career starts and may be there again tonight. She’s got a chance, but is a risky proposition at short odds.
4 – Ocean Sky – She showed some good early speed despite being bumped before fading to last in her debut. The workouts leading up to that race were impressive and she definitely fits well with this bunch. With a clean break, she may be a bit more relaxed and have a shot at the prize.
A few people have e-mailed me asking why I’m posting this. Well, here are a few reasons:
1) I love this game. Ever since I watched Ghost Creek destroy a field of 6 $15,000 claimers in the lid lifter on my first Buck Night on June 23, 2005, I’ve been hooked. Beauty, elegance, emotion and adrenaline all fuse together to make this one of the most riveting sporting events I’ve ever attended. Mix in my penchant for all things nerdy and analyzing speed, form, pace and class just fits right in.
2) As part of my preparation for a night of pari-mutuel equine future investment, I always used to write myself a page or so of notes on each race. This naturally lent itself to a blog…even if it took me two years to figure that out. Yes, these are my actual notes that I take to the track to play. I should have had the pick 6 last night, but I did listen to myself enough.
3) Accountability. When I kept my notes to myself, I didn’t hold myself accountable. Now that the picks are out there, I have no choice but to keep myself honest.
4) To educate. This is such a great game and if I can introduce just one person to it and make them better at it and have some fun with it, that would make this blog more useful than expected.
On a separate note, yes, I play and handicap tracks other than Canterbury Park. However, Canterbury is my home track and during the live season I’ll probably only post about local racing. Throughout the rest of the year, you may find picks and comments posted for other tracks around the country and bonus picks for big races across the country. If you’d like to banter about racing, I welcome your e-mails and/or comments.
Without further delay, let’s look at a competitive Friday card.
Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Par Five in Two – This guy has been knocking on the door at this level for a couple races and looks primed to break through here. He’s tough to play against, despite the short price.
3 – El Inmigrante – This colt takes a step down in class after trailing throughout against 15,000 claimers. He won and placed at that level and unless something is physically wrong, he figures to be prominent here.
5 – Turtle Mountain – Questions abound here, but there is plenty to like. The Turtle has a tendency to show up in the money at goofy prices. New shooter T.D. Houghton has moved up some longer-priced horses in his short tenure at the Park. He’s never tried two turns, but drops in class and his running history tends to show him strengthening as the race progresses. Despite a pedigree that suggests sprints only, he could be the whacky horse that inflates the trifecta or he could fade to last. Goofy, but I’ve got a hunch.
Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
2 – Singitagaingeorge – This guy gets blinkers for the first time and takes the biggest class drop in the sport from special weights to claiming. Houghton takes the mount for owner/trainer Jack McCartney. He’ll appreciate the class relief and his speed figures put him in the mix.
6 – Snowsapassing – After faltering against 15,000 claimers, this one drops back to a level at which he has shown a competitive side. The form cycles suggests improvement which may put him in the winner’s circle.
5 – Mountain Quest – He and the above exchanged bumps early in their last contest, yet this one recovered to be close early and hold 4th at 53-1. A clean trip would put him close to the pace with a shot at the money late.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
10 – Cachemassa Creek – Trainer Bryan Porter has won with 35% of his starters this season and put 14 of 17 (82%) in the money. This colt trailed throughout in his last effort on the dirt and tries the lawn for the first time. The speed figures put him in the mix, and if he can replicate his effort in December in Phoenix, he’ll be tough to beat.
4 – Siphon Ridge – Scott Stevens has been hot of late and climbs about this gelding. This is his third trip off the bench and should be ready to fire a good one.
12 – Thong View – Breaking from the 12 post is no picnic, but Riggs should take back and tuck in behind the speed early, then unleash a closing kick down the lane. The problem is the short run to the turn in a 7 ½ furlong race. If he gets hung wide early, a minor award becomes the ceiling.
Race 4: 17,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – El Tejano – This animal takes a step up into the allowance ranks after defeating 15,000 claimers. There are a lot of changes going on here switching from sprints to routing and dirt to turf, but he’s proven versatile and his pedigree suggests he’ll like this ground. He’ll get a good trip from post 2 and may win.
1 – Louie de Plus – He ships in from Arlington where he has run well over the polytrack. Horses usually translate poly form to the turf quite nicely. It’s also his third race off the bench and could improve enough to score.
5 – Kon Krete Kid – He shipped in from Churchill Downs for his last and ran bravely along the rail, but couldn’t catch Dynamite Will (post 12) late. He should get a fine trip from the five hole be close at the end.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
2/2B – Tail Lights/Valid Discovery – The baby girls had two races last night, but now it’s time for the baby boys. I’ll take the second two for one entry. Both of these animals ran well in their last efforts and seem to be continually improving.
7 – B.B. Hill – He was hung wide throughout in his last effort, but still managed to place a huge odds. If he repeats that effort, he may very well leave all of these in his wake.
1/1A – Tez Sunaman/Sahan – The lovely and talented Tammy Domenosky sends these two postward and both appear live. One of these had a traffic-riddled trip while the other debuts. The works on both are fair and neither would be a big surprise if they hit the ticket.
Race 6: 21,675 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
3 – Watch Me Closely – After dusting a couple of claiming fields, trainer Francisco Bravo moves this mare into the allowance ranks, where I think she’ll do just fine. Bravo won three races on last night’s card and figures to get one here as well. She put in a sizzling work a week ago which doesn’t hurt either.
1 – Heavens Work – The Olesiak brothers tend to win in bunches. They’ve been hot over the last couple weeks and may have a live one here. The pace should be fair which will set up her late kick quite well.
6 – Sucara – Okay, I’ll admit, I’m a bit smitten with Tammy Domenosky, but I think her horse is live in this race, too. She kicked off the July 3 fireworks display early by blowing up the tote board at 22-1 in the nightcap. That price won’t be available here, but Garcia keeps the mount and you should get some excitement for your buck as she passes plenty of these late.
Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Iron Boy – This guy just likes to win. There’s some competition here and the class level could be problematic, but until he get beat, I’ll keep picking him.
4 – Taco Don – He poses the biggest threat to the above. He won on Cinco de Mayo in allowance company and has only been beaten at this distance by ace sprinters Icy Tobin, Carless Navigator and Sir Tricky. The competition is lighter here and he looms large.
8 – America West – If anyone is going to topple the top pair, it’s this guy. He’s a cagey veteran at age 7, but he makes his third trip off the layoff and has been improving with each start. He just sizzled 3 furlongs in 34 flat last week, too. Houghton gets the call and I wouldn’t be surprised to this one on the board.
Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Paulistanna – This filly has spent much of her career going two turns. In her debut she went 6 furlongs and missed by only 3 parts of a length. She didn’t enjoy the sod in Chicago last out and a return to the dirt will be appreciated.
9 – Affection – The post position won’t be easy to overcome and she has a bad case of seconditis, hence second billing here. She’s been sent off as the favorite in all four career starts and may be there again tonight. She’s got a chance, but is a risky proposition at short odds.
4 – Ocean Sky – She showed some good early speed despite being bumped before fading to last in her debut. The workouts leading up to that race were impressive and she definitely fits well with this bunch. With a clean break, she may be a bit more relaxed and have a shot at the prize.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Back for more
Well, Lady Canterbury Day didn't go as planned. I only had 4 winners on the card. To be honest, allowance and stakes races aren't my cup of tea. Give me a card of maidens and claimers and I've got a shot. Funny, that's what tonight's card looks like. Here are the picks, guaranteed to, well, exist.
Race 1: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
2 – Keep It – This is a wide-open affair of six entrants, and I’ll take the class of the race. Keep It has been running against much better groups and should be a factor throughout.
4 – Smokin Jordan – After appearing to be a one trick pony as the pacesetter during his two year-old campaign, Smokin Jordan has shown a willingness to sit off the pace and strike. Mix in a bullet workout last Saturday and Smokin Jordan could get the money here.
1 – Kitty Litter – This guy ran a huge effort when alone on the lead in his last. He figures to have some company early, but should still hit the board.
Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Tour Me Honey – This filly hasn’t run in six weeks, but has the look of the winner among this bunch. A sharp workout on Sunday hints at a good effort here.
5 – Stormy Babe – Paul Nolan continues his approach to 1,000 career wins and may be sitting on 998 right here. This mare has shown a propensity to settle for smaller shares, but if the above isn’t ready off the vacation, this one could score.
4 – Misty Trick – This mare hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in 18 months. In her last few trips she’s dueled herself into the ground and faded badly. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed here, so if Lori Keith can settle her as they travel the backstretch, she could get a decent piece of the pie.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf, Fillies and Mares
3 – Princess Courtney – This appears to be the right spot for her to win her second race. She had some traffic trouble in her last when hung wide on the first turn. A more inside post position should prevent that this time and give her a shot in a very competitive 12 lady field.
10 – Big Hitter – It’s nearly impossible to win a 7 ½ furlong race from this wide of a post, but this filly has been doing a lot of things right lately. She hasn’t run on the lawn in well over a year, but I think she’s well suited to it. She should offer some decent value underneath.
6 – Tobin’s Royalty – This one will make her third trip off the layoff and if she returns to anything like the form she showed in Phoenix, she wins this one.
2 – Puff N Smoke – This one will be the post time favorite and deservedly so having never run worse than second. The gray would be no surprise here, but the value will be non-existent.
Race 4: 10,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
5 – Triumph Arch – I hate playing the chalk, but this one looks much best here. She drops in class for a training winning 30% of his starters at the meet and draws Nolan. The distance could be a problem, but there are too many positives to ignore.
4 – Kami Dee – If the above wasn’t in the race, I’d single this lady in the pick 6 without hesitation. She loves this turf course (7 of 11 in the money), but was all out to prevail by a neck in her last. Big chance, but no cinch.
7 – Play N Fare – She exits a race where she was bested by a neck by Kami Dee. She closed well in that and could turn the tables tonight.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Dette’s Dream – The baby girls do battle here, this one figures to look for the lead early. She ran into a good one in Big Sandy Lake in her last race. It may be diploma time.
4 – Danube’s Hawk – She will likely duel with the above, but she hasn’t shown the ability to carry her speed as far. Should settle for a minor share.
1 – Arghazi – As the only debutante in the field, she lacks the experience of the rest, but her morning workout tab suggests she may have some talent. In a statebred affair such as this, that’s a nice thing to have.
Race 6: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Bump’ndazzle – More baby girls square off here. She ran very well in her debut and faces a pretty soft bunch here. Lasix will help and Garcia should keep her prominent throughout. There won’t be any value here, but she looks tough.
3 – Bri Bri – She ran third behind Dette’s Dream in her last effort. If they met here, I’d take Bri Bri. Since they are apart, they both might win.
6 – Gown – She showed nothing in her debut, but switches to Gary Sherer’s barn which is winning at a 34% clip at the meeting. Martinez climbs in the irons and could put this one in the money.
Race 7: 22,950 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
7 – Tez Taran – On paper, this one is the lone speed and we know what Garcia can do alone on the lead. The form cycle looks positive, too and he’ll be tough.
4 – Shot of Somerset – If the above has company on the lead and slows down, this one should fly by late to get the money. He’s bested better fields and would be no surprise here.
5 – Abit O Irish – Similar to the above, this one figures to benefit if the speed stops. He has a win and a place from two starts at the meet and looms dangerous.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Somerset Call – He’s been runner-up in each of his last two. He’s run better each time and should be tough here.
6 – Ezn Thru – This first timer sports and impressive workout tab. The lovely apprentice Jenna Joubert takes the mount and brings a five pound weight allowance with her. All signs point to a good effort.
5 – Betting Ladd – This guy has been close in a couple efforts at this distance against much tougher competition. He tried two turns in his last and it didn’t take, but perhaps built some stamina. Might hit the board at a price.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claiming, 250 yards
6 – Six Buds for You – The only firster of the nightcap comes in with a solid bunch of morning efforts. Amber Blair is having a good season training the Q’s and may send this one off to victory on his first try.
5 – All Stride No Brakes – Besides having the best name in the field, the filly just missed in her last effort despite an awkward start. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
1 – One Rare Delegate – The lady just hasn’t gotten a clean start, but has given decent efforts anyway. A clean break puts her right in the mix.
Race 1: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
2 – Keep It – This is a wide-open affair of six entrants, and I’ll take the class of the race. Keep It has been running against much better groups and should be a factor throughout.
4 – Smokin Jordan – After appearing to be a one trick pony as the pacesetter during his two year-old campaign, Smokin Jordan has shown a willingness to sit off the pace and strike. Mix in a bullet workout last Saturday and Smokin Jordan could get the money here.
1 – Kitty Litter – This guy ran a huge effort when alone on the lead in his last. He figures to have some company early, but should still hit the board.
Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Tour Me Honey – This filly hasn’t run in six weeks, but has the look of the winner among this bunch. A sharp workout on Sunday hints at a good effort here.
5 – Stormy Babe – Paul Nolan continues his approach to 1,000 career wins and may be sitting on 998 right here. This mare has shown a propensity to settle for smaller shares, but if the above isn’t ready off the vacation, this one could score.
4 – Misty Trick – This mare hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in 18 months. In her last few trips she’s dueled herself into the ground and faded badly. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed here, so if Lori Keith can settle her as they travel the backstretch, she could get a decent piece of the pie.
Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf, Fillies and Mares
3 – Princess Courtney – This appears to be the right spot for her to win her second race. She had some traffic trouble in her last when hung wide on the first turn. A more inside post position should prevent that this time and give her a shot in a very competitive 12 lady field.
10 – Big Hitter – It’s nearly impossible to win a 7 ½ furlong race from this wide of a post, but this filly has been doing a lot of things right lately. She hasn’t run on the lawn in well over a year, but I think she’s well suited to it. She should offer some decent value underneath.
6 – Tobin’s Royalty – This one will make her third trip off the layoff and if she returns to anything like the form she showed in Phoenix, she wins this one.
2 – Puff N Smoke – This one will be the post time favorite and deservedly so having never run worse than second. The gray would be no surprise here, but the value will be non-existent.
Race 4: 10,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
5 – Triumph Arch – I hate playing the chalk, but this one looks much best here. She drops in class for a training winning 30% of his starters at the meet and draws Nolan. The distance could be a problem, but there are too many positives to ignore.
4 – Kami Dee – If the above wasn’t in the race, I’d single this lady in the pick 6 without hesitation. She loves this turf course (7 of 11 in the money), but was all out to prevail by a neck in her last. Big chance, but no cinch.
7 – Play N Fare – She exits a race where she was bested by a neck by Kami Dee. She closed well in that and could turn the tables tonight.
Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Dette’s Dream – The baby girls do battle here, this one figures to look for the lead early. She ran into a good one in Big Sandy Lake in her last race. It may be diploma time.
4 – Danube’s Hawk – She will likely duel with the above, but she hasn’t shown the ability to carry her speed as far. Should settle for a minor share.
1 – Arghazi – As the only debutante in the field, she lacks the experience of the rest, but her morning workout tab suggests she may have some talent. In a statebred affair such as this, that’s a nice thing to have.
Race 6: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Bump’ndazzle – More baby girls square off here. She ran very well in her debut and faces a pretty soft bunch here. Lasix will help and Garcia should keep her prominent throughout. There won’t be any value here, but she looks tough.
3 – Bri Bri – She ran third behind Dette’s Dream in her last effort. If they met here, I’d take Bri Bri. Since they are apart, they both might win.
6 – Gown – She showed nothing in her debut, but switches to Gary Sherer’s barn which is winning at a 34% clip at the meeting. Martinez climbs in the irons and could put this one in the money.
Race 7: 22,950 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
7 – Tez Taran – On paper, this one is the lone speed and we know what Garcia can do alone on the lead. The form cycle looks positive, too and he’ll be tough.
4 – Shot of Somerset – If the above has company on the lead and slows down, this one should fly by late to get the money. He’s bested better fields and would be no surprise here.
5 – Abit O Irish – Similar to the above, this one figures to benefit if the speed stops. He has a win and a place from two starts at the meet and looms dangerous.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Somerset Call – He’s been runner-up in each of his last two. He’s run better each time and should be tough here.
6 – Ezn Thru – This first timer sports and impressive workout tab. The lovely apprentice Jenna Joubert takes the mount and brings a five pound weight allowance with her. All signs point to a good effort.
5 – Betting Ladd – This guy has been close in a couple efforts at this distance against much tougher competition. He tried two turns in his last and it didn’t take, but perhaps built some stamina. Might hit the board at a price.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claiming, 250 yards
6 – Six Buds for You – The only firster of the nightcap comes in with a solid bunch of morning efforts. Amber Blair is having a good season training the Q’s and may send this one off to victory on his first try.
5 – All Stride No Brakes – Besides having the best name in the field, the filly just missed in her last effort despite an awkward start. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
1 – One Rare Delegate – The lady just hasn’t gotten a clean start, but has given decent efforts anyway. A clean break puts her right in the mix.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Lady Canterbury Day
Thursday night's picks were a mixed bag. My top choice ran in the money in 8 of 9 races and the race winner was among my top three in 7 of 9. Boxing the top selections in each race would have netted 5 exactas and 3 trifectas. Not a bad effort, but I can do better.
Today's card is loaded with quality races, headlined by the 100,000 Lady Canterbury Breeders Cup stakes in race 6. Also of note is the arrival of jockey T.D. Houghton who has been banned from riding at many tracks due to an investigation into racing at Great Lakes Downs.
Lastly, the weather today is magnificent. I hope you can make it to the track for what should be a fantastic day of racing. Without further ado, on with the picks.
Race 1 - 21,675 Allowance, 6 furlongs
3 - Bjellebo - This gelding has been at the top of his game on the Canterbury dirt this season in winning both efforts. He tried the lawn last time and ran well despite finishing 5th. He should appreciate the switch back to his preferred surface and best this bunch.
5 - Willy Wompus - He's had a couple months off to recharge after giving a gutsy effort in defeat. Ness and Nolan have been clicking all season and stand a decent shot at victory in this contest.
6 - Bay Talk - He takes a sharp jump up in class while switching from open company to statebreds. Marvin Johnson has started to click lately and Escobar is long overdue to rattle off a half dozen wins in a weekend. Should offer a little value for the exotics.
Race 2 - 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 - Cryptic Affair - This little lady should relish the class relief from special weight and has run her best races at 6 furlongs, finishing in the money in three of four tries at the distance.
2 - Aloha Richter - She also takes a similar class drop and goes from turf to dirt. She should be close and always gives an honest effort.
5 - Data Profile - This first timer lures Derek Bell into the saddle and shows a competitive work out tab leading up to today's debut. Deserves some attention among a pretty soft group.
Race 3 - 5,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
4 - Pouco Moleque - This animal has missed under similar conditions by a neck and a head. I think he does enough to get all the money this time.
5 - Flying Strawberry - Won his last out by setting the pace. Will likely duel with the above throughout with the strongest surviving.
7 - Sheba's Charm - If the pace duel described above burns out those runners, this gelding stands the best chance of picking up the pieces. Recently tried the lawn a couple times with little success. Switching back to the dirt will be much appreciated and should result in at least a minor share.
Race 4 - 23,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
4 - Frontier Franny - This race features six classy ladies who could have run in today's feature, but their connections drop them in here. Franny is a gutsy mare that has run really well over the last year. She's 5 for 7 in the money at this distance and the pace scenario seems to project a nice set up for her late run.
2 - Couple Whiles - She should sit just behind the 3 and 6 mares as they set the pace and make the first run at passing in the stretch. She might be good enough.
1 - Phone the Diva - The Diva is the wildcard in this race. She's been on vacation for over a year when she beat both of the above. She's a year older now and shows a solid set of morning works leading up to today's return. If she's right, she'll be just inside of Couple Whiles a couple lengths off the early lead and fire her best shot down the lane.
Race 5 - 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs
2 - Thatsalottabull - The gray ran a clunker in his last over the poly at Arlington, but if you forgive that race, he appears much best among this group. Probably won't get much of a price, but he's tough to beat here.
3 - Ber Bear - this colt always gives an honest effort and has never run out of the money. This will be his third start off the layoff and he should improve enough to be a considerable factor in this race.
7 - Duke Deluxe - Blew out a field of maidens last out and appears to possess the brand of tactical speed that could make him a contender here.
Race 6 - 100,000 Lady Canterbury Breeders' Cup stakes, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
2 - My Chickadee - On paper, this is a pretty odd race. It's on the lawn, but there is a ton of early speed to guarantee hot fractions. That pace scenario should set up My Chickadee to sit a couple lengths back, fire her best shot and fly past the tired speed.
4 - Tens Holy Spirit - She's likely outclassed here, but the best local hope has the right running style to potential repeat her upset victory of the Claiming Crown Tiara last year. She's fun to root for and may pull a shocker.
3 - Rich Fantasy - She ships in from Lone Star Park after a gutsy third place finish in the Grade 3 Ouija Board. She's the logical winner here, but her front running style will be pressured by up to four other horses. She led late in the Ouija Board but tired and was passed late. I could see this exact scenario playing out again here.
Race 7 - 45,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs
2 - Lite Brigade - Has finished in the top two in each of his last 8 tries. A confirmed sprinter, he comes out of a second place finish in the 45,000 Free Press stakes at Assiniboia with a troubled trip. He prefers the lead and this bunch doesn't look to eager to take it from him. May win big.
4 - Bobadieu - He drops out of a stakes race as well and should appreciate the class relief. The breeding here is terrific and he was purchased for $140,000 in 2004. He's 6 for 9 in the money at Canterbury and should make his presence known.
6 - No Term Limit - This guy makes his second start off the layoff and should improve on his third place finish at Lincoln. If he gets back to the form he showed this winter in Arkansas, he could pose for pictures.
Race 8 - 35,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf
6 - Lt. Sampson - The house horse was Canterbury horse of the year in 2005. He continues to improve with each start on the lawn this season and looks poised to run huge. He'll make his move on the turn and may power home.
7 - Habaneros - He shipped in from Iowa and won bravely in his last at 10-1. You won't get a price anywhere near that today, but he should give you a thrill for your investment.
1 - Big Tex - He's run in the money in 4 of 6 starts in the Canterbury weeds and factors prominently here. He won his last against similar at this distance while sitting behind the pace. Expect a similar run today.
Race 9 - 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 - Struttinherstuff - Has knocked on the door in each of last two at short prices and fallen short. The improving form signals that a break through is coming. Will it be in the nightcap?
10 - Prospect Joi - I'm not a fan of the post position, but this girl has improved in each of her last two and in her third run off the bench, could make some noise.
12 - Susie's Sugar Shot - Again, the post position doesn't help and one has to wonder why she was pulled up in her first effort, but the workouts signal that she should be in the mix in this group. At 12-1 on the morning line, she should be a nice price.
Today's card is loaded with quality races, headlined by the 100,000 Lady Canterbury Breeders Cup stakes in race 6. Also of note is the arrival of jockey T.D. Houghton who has been banned from riding at many tracks due to an investigation into racing at Great Lakes Downs.
Lastly, the weather today is magnificent. I hope you can make it to the track for what should be a fantastic day of racing. Without further ado, on with the picks.
Race 1 - 21,675 Allowance, 6 furlongs
3 - Bjellebo - This gelding has been at the top of his game on the Canterbury dirt this season in winning both efforts. He tried the lawn last time and ran well despite finishing 5th. He should appreciate the switch back to his preferred surface and best this bunch.
5 - Willy Wompus - He's had a couple months off to recharge after giving a gutsy effort in defeat. Ness and Nolan have been clicking all season and stand a decent shot at victory in this contest.
6 - Bay Talk - He takes a sharp jump up in class while switching from open company to statebreds. Marvin Johnson has started to click lately and Escobar is long overdue to rattle off a half dozen wins in a weekend. Should offer a little value for the exotics.
Race 2 - 15,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 - Cryptic Affair - This little lady should relish the class relief from special weight and has run her best races at 6 furlongs, finishing in the money in three of four tries at the distance.
2 - Aloha Richter - She also takes a similar class drop and goes from turf to dirt. She should be close and always gives an honest effort.
5 - Data Profile - This first timer lures Derek Bell into the saddle and shows a competitive work out tab leading up to today's debut. Deserves some attention among a pretty soft group.
Race 3 - 5,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
4 - Pouco Moleque - This animal has missed under similar conditions by a neck and a head. I think he does enough to get all the money this time.
5 - Flying Strawberry - Won his last out by setting the pace. Will likely duel with the above throughout with the strongest surviving.
7 - Sheba's Charm - If the pace duel described above burns out those runners, this gelding stands the best chance of picking up the pieces. Recently tried the lawn a couple times with little success. Switching back to the dirt will be much appreciated and should result in at least a minor share.
Race 4 - 23,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
4 - Frontier Franny - This race features six classy ladies who could have run in today's feature, but their connections drop them in here. Franny is a gutsy mare that has run really well over the last year. She's 5 for 7 in the money at this distance and the pace scenario seems to project a nice set up for her late run.
2 - Couple Whiles - She should sit just behind the 3 and 6 mares as they set the pace and make the first run at passing in the stretch. She might be good enough.
1 - Phone the Diva - The Diva is the wildcard in this race. She's been on vacation for over a year when she beat both of the above. She's a year older now and shows a solid set of morning works leading up to today's return. If she's right, she'll be just inside of Couple Whiles a couple lengths off the early lead and fire her best shot down the lane.
Race 5 - 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs
2 - Thatsalottabull - The gray ran a clunker in his last over the poly at Arlington, but if you forgive that race, he appears much best among this group. Probably won't get much of a price, but he's tough to beat here.
3 - Ber Bear - this colt always gives an honest effort and has never run out of the money. This will be his third start off the layoff and he should improve enough to be a considerable factor in this race.
7 - Duke Deluxe - Blew out a field of maidens last out and appears to possess the brand of tactical speed that could make him a contender here.
Race 6 - 100,000 Lady Canterbury Breeders' Cup stakes, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
2 - My Chickadee - On paper, this is a pretty odd race. It's on the lawn, but there is a ton of early speed to guarantee hot fractions. That pace scenario should set up My Chickadee to sit a couple lengths back, fire her best shot and fly past the tired speed.
4 - Tens Holy Spirit - She's likely outclassed here, but the best local hope has the right running style to potential repeat her upset victory of the Claiming Crown Tiara last year. She's fun to root for and may pull a shocker.
3 - Rich Fantasy - She ships in from Lone Star Park after a gutsy third place finish in the Grade 3 Ouija Board. She's the logical winner here, but her front running style will be pressured by up to four other horses. She led late in the Ouija Board but tired and was passed late. I could see this exact scenario playing out again here.
Race 7 - 45,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs
2 - Lite Brigade - Has finished in the top two in each of his last 8 tries. A confirmed sprinter, he comes out of a second place finish in the 45,000 Free Press stakes at Assiniboia with a troubled trip. He prefers the lead and this bunch doesn't look to eager to take it from him. May win big.
4 - Bobadieu - He drops out of a stakes race as well and should appreciate the class relief. The breeding here is terrific and he was purchased for $140,000 in 2004. He's 6 for 9 in the money at Canterbury and should make his presence known.
6 - No Term Limit - This guy makes his second start off the layoff and should improve on his third place finish at Lincoln. If he gets back to the form he showed this winter in Arkansas, he could pose for pictures.
Race 8 - 35,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf
6 - Lt. Sampson - The house horse was Canterbury horse of the year in 2005. He continues to improve with each start on the lawn this season and looks poised to run huge. He'll make his move on the turn and may power home.
7 - Habaneros - He shipped in from Iowa and won bravely in his last at 10-1. You won't get a price anywhere near that today, but he should give you a thrill for your investment.
1 - Big Tex - He's run in the money in 4 of 6 starts in the Canterbury weeds and factors prominently here. He won his last against similar at this distance while sitting behind the pace. Expect a similar run today.
Race 9 - 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 - Struttinherstuff - Has knocked on the door in each of last two at short prices and fallen short. The improving form signals that a break through is coming. Will it be in the nightcap?
10 - Prospect Joi - I'm not a fan of the post position, but this girl has improved in each of her last two and in her third run off the bench, could make some noise.
12 - Susie's Sugar Shot - Again, the post position doesn't help and one has to wonder why she was pulled up in her first effort, but the workouts signal that she should be in the mix in this group. At 12-1 on the morning line, she should be a nice price.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Buck Night!
Canterbury Park features a 9 race card as buck night kicks of Lady Canterbury weekend. An $1,122 pick 6 carryover adds a little juice to a pretty decent night of racing. My inaugural tipsheet is below. If you happened upon one of these at the track, check back for semi-regular postings. In the future, I'll post my record and map out some betting strategy in addition to the picks. Happy wagering!
Canterbury Park – July 14, 2007
Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
3 – Johnny Walker Roan – This is a pretty motley bunch of statebreads. Despite never finishing closer than 6 lengths behind the winner in his career, this gelding is bred to get this distance while others have serious stamina questions.
1 – Born Running – This would be one of those with real stamina questions. Has shown some ability sprinting and showed a pretty decent workout tab in early June. Off awkwardly in his last, he should sit near the pace and have first run down the lane.
6 – Prospect Point – This animal has tired badly after dueling for the lead in has past two races. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed in this affair which could leave this animal alone on the lead. If he gets a breather in the middle, he’ll be tough to pass in the stretch.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
7 – Booster – This seven year-old has been at the top of his game since shipping north. He’s scored a couple gamely wins in his last two. You won’t get much of a price, but he appears best.
4 – Stetter Jr – This gelding made up a ton of ground late in his last to win by 4. With the above, Hank ‘n Ace and Thunder Squall in here, the pace should be honest enough to set up his late run.
6 – Chief Magistrate – The Chief didn’t fare too well on the sod in his last. He cuts back in distance switches back to the Canterbury dirt where he’s 67% in the money in his career. Should offer a square price.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
7 – Byefornow – Has run second in each of her last two. Tonight should be her night. Watch for her to set reasonable fractions and have Garcia push the button on the turn.
11 – Prima Dancer – Had a little trouble her last, but made up ground sweetly when clear. She’ll be charging late and if the pace stops, may graduate.
4 – Ultimat Perfection – She also had some trouble last out while racing close to the pace. Nolan owns this turf course and should sit just off the pace and have first run at the top of the lane.
Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
3 – Demon’s Storm – This filly will appreciate the class drop back into the allowance ranks. She ran an admirable 4th in the Northbound Pride stakes and beat Frances Genter stakes winner Run With Joy three back.
4 – Saveeta – This mare is a bit of an enigma, but she tends to wake up at odd times and score at fair prices. Her form cycle looks pretty good, too. I’m not sure she can topple the above, but should fit in nicely in the exotics.
2 – Grandmas’ Girl – There are a lot of early speed types in this race. I expect that the bookenders will duel each other into the ground leaving plenty of pieces for those that close in late. This one fits the bill.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Mamama – Ran second at this level two back. Had a wide trip against better in last. The inside post should set her up with a nicer trip, which may get her to the winner’s circle.
8 – Candlelight Dance – She bounced at Lincoln after running her heart out on April 22. She’s had a couple months off and should be ready to go at first asking. Using the bug rider’s weight break helps, too.
3 – Jovial Angel – This one and the 7 filly will likely battle for the early lead. Jovial Angel seems more likely to be able to carry this field into the turn and maybe all the way.
Race 6: 4,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles
5 – Sandrican – After running third twice in a row against better, this gelding drops in for the lowest tag available searching for that elusive W. He’s 4 of 6 in the money on the Canterbury dirt and will make his move down the stretch.
6 – Gospodin – This veteran of the claiming ranks has a bad habit of not winning at short prices. There won’t be any value again tonight, but he’s a contender.
1 – Lunarco – This guy reared at the start in last, spotting the field 13 lengths, but rallied to finish third, beaten only 5 lengths. A clean start puts him right in the mix.
Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Sentimental Charm – This classy multiple stakes winner finds herself in the Allowance ranks again where she appears best. She’s won 6 of 11 at Canterbury in her wonderful career. Not much here to prevent win number 7.
4 – Jills Classy – She figures to be the likely pace setter. If she doesn’t get pressured, she may dig in and not let the above pass.
2 – Salty Attraction – Has shown a propensity to make up big ground late. If anyone gets lazy on the lead, this mare could get paid.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
2 – Silent Preacher – This is a tough race to figure, but this one appears most likely. He’s run progressively better in each of his last 4 this year and may finally be fit enough to take down the prize.
4 – Island Doc – The jockey switch to Bell bodes well after running a career best in last out at a huge price. Trainer Marvin Johnson tends win more frequently later in the year and may have this one cranked up for a big one.
10 – Royal Fox – This gelding made up a ton of ground late in his last, missing by only a length. The main concern here is that there doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed, which may compromise his late burst.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claiming, 330 yards
2 – Bye Bye Special – Ran decently in last, but should appreciate the extra distance in here. Consistently close and fits in nicely with 5,800 maidens.
4 – Ground Candy – Has finished in the money in all three starts this year and may step forward and graduate tonight.
6 – Dashing Tipper – He fired a great effort in last and figures quite prominently in a pretty wide open contest.
Canterbury Park – July 14, 2007
Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
3 – Johnny Walker Roan – This is a pretty motley bunch of statebreads. Despite never finishing closer than 6 lengths behind the winner in his career, this gelding is bred to get this distance while others have serious stamina questions.
1 – Born Running – This would be one of those with real stamina questions. Has shown some ability sprinting and showed a pretty decent workout tab in early June. Off awkwardly in his last, he should sit near the pace and have first run down the lane.
6 – Prospect Point – This animal has tired badly after dueling for the lead in has past two races. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed in this affair which could leave this animal alone on the lead. If he gets a breather in the middle, he’ll be tough to pass in the stretch.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
7 – Booster – This seven year-old has been at the top of his game since shipping north. He’s scored a couple gamely wins in his last two. You won’t get much of a price, but he appears best.
4 – Stetter Jr – This gelding made up a ton of ground late in his last to win by 4. With the above, Hank ‘n Ace and Thunder Squall in here, the pace should be honest enough to set up his late run.
6 – Chief Magistrate – The Chief didn’t fare too well on the sod in his last. He cuts back in distance switches back to the Canterbury dirt where he’s 67% in the money in his career. Should offer a square price.
Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
7 – Byefornow – Has run second in each of her last two. Tonight should be her night. Watch for her to set reasonable fractions and have Garcia push the button on the turn.
11 – Prima Dancer – Had a little trouble her last, but made up ground sweetly when clear. She’ll be charging late and if the pace stops, may graduate.
4 – Ultimat Perfection – She also had some trouble last out while racing close to the pace. Nolan owns this turf course and should sit just off the pace and have first run at the top of the lane.
Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares
3 – Demon’s Storm – This filly will appreciate the class drop back into the allowance ranks. She ran an admirable 4th in the Northbound Pride stakes and beat Frances Genter stakes winner Run With Joy three back.
4 – Saveeta – This mare is a bit of an enigma, but she tends to wake up at odd times and score at fair prices. Her form cycle looks pretty good, too. I’m not sure she can topple the above, but should fit in nicely in the exotics.
2 – Grandmas’ Girl – There are a lot of early speed types in this race. I expect that the bookenders will duel each other into the ground leaving plenty of pieces for those that close in late. This one fits the bill.
Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Mamama – Ran second at this level two back. Had a wide trip against better in last. The inside post should set her up with a nicer trip, which may get her to the winner’s circle.
8 – Candlelight Dance – She bounced at Lincoln after running her heart out on April 22. She’s had a couple months off and should be ready to go at first asking. Using the bug rider’s weight break helps, too.
3 – Jovial Angel – This one and the 7 filly will likely battle for the early lead. Jovial Angel seems more likely to be able to carry this field into the turn and maybe all the way.
Race 6: 4,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles
5 – Sandrican – After running third twice in a row against better, this gelding drops in for the lowest tag available searching for that elusive W. He’s 4 of 6 in the money on the Canterbury dirt and will make his move down the stretch.
6 – Gospodin – This veteran of the claiming ranks has a bad habit of not winning at short prices. There won’t be any value again tonight, but he’s a contender.
1 – Lunarco – This guy reared at the start in last, spotting the field 13 lengths, but rallied to finish third, beaten only 5 lengths. A clean start puts him right in the mix.
Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Sentimental Charm – This classy multiple stakes winner finds herself in the Allowance ranks again where she appears best. She’s won 6 of 11 at Canterbury in her wonderful career. Not much here to prevent win number 7.
4 – Jills Classy – She figures to be the likely pace setter. If she doesn’t get pressured, she may dig in and not let the above pass.
2 – Salty Attraction – Has shown a propensity to make up big ground late. If anyone gets lazy on the lead, this mare could get paid.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards
2 – Silent Preacher – This is a tough race to figure, but this one appears most likely. He’s run progressively better in each of his last 4 this year and may finally be fit enough to take down the prize.
4 – Island Doc – The jockey switch to Bell bodes well after running a career best in last out at a huge price. Trainer Marvin Johnson tends win more frequently later in the year and may have this one cranked up for a big one.
10 – Royal Fox – This gelding made up a ton of ground late in his last, missing by only a length. The main concern here is that there doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed, which may compromise his late burst.
Race 9: 5,800 Maiden Claiming, 330 yards
2 – Bye Bye Special – Ran decently in last, but should appreciate the extra distance in here. Consistently close and fits in nicely with 5,800 maidens.
4 – Ground Candy – Has finished in the money in all three starts this year and may step forward and graduate tonight.
6 – Dashing Tipper – He fired a great effort in last and figures quite prominently in a pretty wide open contest.
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