Breeders' Cup Selections

Hey folks,

I've taken a bit of a break from gambling lately, but I'm back with the BC picks. I'm not picking the top three in any race, but rather giving my win selection and a couple of other options for the gimmicks. I will say, just about any horse can win any of these races. This is my best guess. Your mileage may vary. Good luck!

Friday:

Filly and Mare Sprint
Maryfield. I think the speedy favorites Dream Rush and La Traviata burn each other out, setting up this one's late run at a very square price. Miss Macy Sue could also benefit from the pace.

Juvenile Turf
Achill Island. He may not be the best European on paper, but I think he's the best prepared. His last trip was a nightmare yet he still only missed by 3 parts or a length. Prussian is the best American hope, but I'll go on record with Achill Island.

Dirt Mile
Discreet Cat. This one was a monster before things went bad. The connections say he's ready. If that's true, he destroys this field. For an outsider, look at Park Avenue Ball. He's 10 for 10 in the money at Monmouth and his career best performance came at this distance.

Saturday

Juvenile Fillies
Proud Spell. Although Indian Blessing will rightfully go favored, I'll take a shot with this unbeaten filly. Her wins have been impressive and she's shown an ability to close late which is a great trait in a race of speedballs. A to the Croft also fits the mold, but is stranded in post 14.

Juvenile
War Pass. He'll likely be the favorite, but he appears to be geared up for a big effort. He's undefeated and has put in a string of five straight bullets. Pyro's late-running style could benefit from a hot pace scenario.

Filly and Mare Turf
Honey Ryder. She didn't take to the soft footing at Arlington last out, but she is the classiest dame in the field, having raced successfully against the boys on several occasions. The undefeated Nashoba's Key with 17 year old rider Joe Talamo poses a considerable threat, but I'll take the veteran. Arravale would be a surprise, but she appears cranked up for a peak performance.

Sprint
Kelly's Landing. He last raced at Dubai in March and won the $2M Golden Shaheen. The layoff is a concern, but the work pattern is solid and he's proven to fire off the bench. If he's not ready, Smokey Stover is your gelding, fresh off a sharp win over this course in September.

Mile
Excellent Art. He's battle tested having only run in stakes company, and he's won 4 of 9. The Euros tend to dominate the lawn racing and this appears no different. My Typhoon has been the victim of a couple stumbles in her last two. I question the move to face boys here, but she may be good enough if she doesn't trip.

Distaff
Lear's Princess. She's never been worse than second and beat the Belmont winner Rags to Riches in her last effort. Granted, Rags probably wasn't too sharp for that effort, but she beat her nonetheless. Lots to like here. Octave is a professional bridesmaid and will likely get a minor slice. Hystericalady ran a sharp one over this surface this summer.

Turf
Dylan Thomas. Those of you playing the late pick 4, single this one and move on. He's the best 1 1/2 mile horse on the planet and should best this bunch. Last year's winner Red Rocks stands a shot to upset as a good price, but Dylan Thomas is the pick and most likely winner on the card.

Classic
Curlin. Our baby boy has grown up before our eyes this year. A green colt, unraced at two somehow found the board in the Derby. Then, he won the Preakness. In his last effort he bested morning line favorite Lawyer Ron in the Gold Cup. Of concern is his dull 3rd place effort in the Haskell at Monmouth in August. Lawyer Ron would be no surprise either after a couple monster wins this summer. Look for Tiago and Diamond Stripes to have a shot at hitting the superfecta ticket at very nice prices.

Week 4 Picks

Last week didn't exactly go as planned as we posted a 1-2-1 record to fall to 5-6-1 and a minus 2.6 units. This isn't where we wanted to be at this point. However, we've learned some things and it's time to get onto the plus side of the ledger. Let's get to the picks.

Green Bay -2 v. Minnesota As a Viking fan, it hurts to type this, but Brett Favre's Packers are good and. My Vikings are one-dimensional and the Packer defense is legit. Then, the anemic Chief's passing game exploit the one weakness in the Viking defense. Newsflash: The only thing the Packers can do is pass. GB -2.

Philadelphia -3 @ New York Giants Which performance last week was the anomoly: Philadelphia blowing up Detroit or the Giants playing some defense against Washington? I'm going to lean towards the Giants being anomolous and Philly looking like what we expected. PHI -3.

St. Louis @ Dallas O/U 46 Dallas will blow out St. Louis. There is little doubt about that, but the 12.5 point spread could be busted in garbage time. Instead, I'll play St. Louis to beat a suspect Dallas secondary often enough to push this total into the 50's. Dallas will jump out early forcing St. Louis to pass early and often. That should lead to plenty of points. STL/DAL OV 46

Baltimore -4.5 @ Cleveland Last week we won playing against Baltimore and their now 0-3 record ATS. Sure, Cleveland got blown out in their opener, but are 2-0 ATS since. Until Baltimore can cover a spread, continue to take the points. CLE +4.5.

Recap:
GB -2 @ MIN
PHI -3 @ NYG
STL/DAL OV 46
CLE +4.5 v. BAL

Week 3 Picks

So, last week didn't turn out exactly as planned. Actually, it didn't turn out anything like the plan. New Orleans and Cincinnati both lost outright, though the Colts did stay to the under and Green Bay won their game outright. So, we went 2-2 on the week, but we lost our 2 unit play leading to a net loss on the week of 1.3 units for a season tally of 4-4 and a minus 1.4 units. We're getting back on the horse this week and making some money.

But first, speaking of horses, I just haven't found time to post anything racing related. I'll probably shut down the racing aspect until Breeders' Cup week where I'll hit it good and hard again. Then, I'll shut it down again until the big three year old prep races start up at Gulfstream, Aqueduct and Santa Anita. Sorry, but with the NFL here, horses have taken a back seat.

On with the picks...
Indianapolis @ Houston O/U 48 I've been picking on the Colts to the under all year. I didn't post it, but I played the under against the Saints as well. With Andre Johnson out, I struggle to find more than about 10 points for the Texans. This matchup doesn't have the same favorable trends as the Tenessee matchup did, but Houston has kind of found a defense this year. Give me the Under 48 for 1 unit.

New York Jets -3 v. Miami The Jets really showed some heart in nearly coming back to win at Baltimore last week. Tom Jones is healthy and Miami has been less than good thus far, including last week's route at home by Dallas. Fireman Ed might be questionable for the Jets this week, but I think playing at home will be enough to cover 3. NYJ -3 for 1 unit.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay O/U 38 This one almost seems too easy. Tampa comes off a game where they lit up the scoreboard for 4 TDs and the Rams are the Rams, meaning they sheould get at least 2 touchdowns. Plus, the Rams are desperate after starting 0-2. This number should sail to the over. STL/TB OV 38 for 1 unit.

Arizona +8 @ Baltimore From a pure football perspective, this one is a bit of a stretch. However, from an investing perspective, it's quite elementary. Arizona is a perfect 2-0 against the spread and Baltimore is an accommodative 0-2. Both Cincinnati and New York showed that this defense can be beat through the air. Look for the singing birds to hang with the birds that live in groups called murders. Arizona +8 for 1 unit.

To recap, let's try the following plays for 1 unit each.
IND/HOU UN 48
NYJ -3 v. MIA
STL/TB OV 38
AZ +8 @ BAL

Week 2 Preview

Last week was full of potential. I hit on my two early game predictions, leaving me with a live three team parlay heading into the night game. Folks, this is an ideal situation to find yourself in. At this point, you can guarantee that you win the payoff amount of your parlay by insuring yourself with a bet on the opposite side. If you didn't insure your parlay, you found yourself out .1 units last weekend. Any amount you had wagered on the opposite of your final parlay leg would have improved this. Sure, it could reduce your profit, but a little peace of mind can make a late game much more enjoyable.

Anyway, let's make some money...

New Orleans -3 1/2 @ Tampa
The Saints looked awful to open the season last week. That said, Tampa is in the running for being the worst team in the NFL. The formula here fits the formula we used with the Pittsburgh game to a T. New Orleans is clearly the superior team being asked to cover a smallish spread because they are on the road. If this game is in Louisiana, it's an 8 or 9 point spread. Play New Orleans for 2 units.

Cincinnati -7 @ Cleveland
Yes, I'm picking on the Browns again. They were awful last week and have since traded their starting QB. Cincy caused 6 turnovers against an experienced Baltimore offense last week. What is Derek Anderson going to do? Brady Quinn? Please. Lay the touchdown for one unit.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee Over/Under 46
Indy looked dominant last week while Tennessee had to fight and claw their way to victory. The last four times these teams have met they've stayed under this number. Also, when the Colts travel to Tennessee, they seem to forget the firepower at home. Look for a lot of running in this one as it stays below the number. Play the under for 1 unit.

Green Bay +2 1/2 @ New York Giants
I think the wrong team is favored here. The Packers beat the Eagles in a close one last week while the Giants got man-handled by the Cowboys last week. Mix in the fact that the Pillsbury Throwboy will be under center and something called Derrick Ward will be taking the carries for the G-men and things look pretty bright for those from the land of cheese. Play the Pack +2 1/2 for 1 unit.

To recap:
New Orleans -3 1/2 for 2 units
Cincinnati -7 for 1 unit
Indy/Tennessee Under 46 for 1 unit
Green Bay +2 1/2 for 1 unit

When you're wrong, you're wrong.

Well, yesterday's picks produced some mixed results. The Steelers easily covered the 4 1/2 against Cleveland and Tennessee and Jacksonville didn't get close to the 38. Everything was shaping up nicely heading into the Sunday night contest. Then the wheels fell off. I suggested the under 44, which Dallas actually covered by themselves en route to a 45-35 victory over the Giants. For the most part, the early season under trend held as just 4 games in week one went over the number. I happened to pick one of the games that went over. I'm honestly shocked at just how bad both defenses looked last night.

The three individual plays I presented went 2-1 and the parlay obviously lost. Using the standard juice of 1.1-1, we should have lost .1 units. Not what I was looking for, but not a catastrophe either.

Anyway, tonight brings a double header. For many gamblers, Monday night is the ultimate get-even night to make up for the losses incurred on Sunday. Avoid the temptation to play heavily on Monday night. Usually, unless you have a strong opinion about the game when the lines are published, you should pass on Monday night. If I have a Monday play, I'll post it with my Sunday picks on Friday.

So tonight, sit back, crack open a cold one (or six) and enjoy what should be some entertaining football.

That's a wrap...

Well, the Canterbury spring/summer meet came to a close on Monday with someone housing the pick 6 for size at nearly 28k. I went 4 of 6 in hopes of a closing day inflated consolation payout. Overall the meet presented mixed results. Handle was down against the prior year, but attendance was up for the 11th straight year.

The jockey and trainer project I was working on proved to be too large and ambitious for me to get it done before the meet was over, so I punted. In fall, I turn my play toward Hoosier, Turfway and Remington. I'm attempting to do the trainer/jockey project on the Remington meet thus far so that it can actually prove useful information that can be used on the rest of the meet. Posting race picks will be more infrequent, but one sheet weekly is probably about right. I'll also have a series of postings leading up to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Monmouth on October 26 and 27. Expect picks to be posted October 25.

Also, the NFL season kicked off last night and I'll be taking looks opportunities to capitalize on NFL point spreads and totals. Last year I won with just over 60% of my picks. Anyway, let's take a look at a couple of opportunities for this weekend...

Pittsburgh -4 1/2 @ Cleveland
Generally, I dislike playing the road favorite. Too many weird things happen on the road. However, Pittsburgh is the superior team in this one. Cleveland is pretty much a mess and the pressure is on to perform this season. They may win 6 or 7 games, but I think they get handled in this one. Pittsburgh -4 1/2

Tennessee @ Jacksonville O/U 38
Early in the season the defenses tend to have the upper hand on the offenses, typically leading to week 1 and 2 games staying to the under. It started last night with the total staying under the 53 1/2 total. Last season, only 4 week 1 games went over 40 total points. Both of these teams have good to great defenses and neither have standout offenses. Give me the under 38.

New York Giants @ Dallas O/U 44
This is a play on the same trend. Also, mix in Romo's struggles against the Giants in his brief career as a starter and I think you have all the makings of a 20-10 kind of game. Under 44.

If sports gambling were legal in my state, these would be my three plays of the weekend. I'd play them all for 1 unit and parlay the trio for 1 unit as well.

To recap:
Pittsburgh -4 1/2 for 1 unit.
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 38 for 1 unit.
NYG/Dallas Under 44 for 1 unit.
3 team parlay of the above for 1 unit.

Sunny Saturday

Today's card finally features some great fields. Intrigue abounds. Let's get some winners.

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Fabulous Babe – This bunch doesn’t show a ton of talent, so I’m going to try this first timer. She shoes the best works of the bunch and has yet to taste defeat. Give her a look.
4 – Sky N Mighty – His debut was awful, but his works leading up to it and after suggest a bunch of talent. Forgive the debut and you might have your winner.
1 – Ondefencenightly – As we’ve discussed before, trainer Bryan Porter has put a ridiculous portion of his runners in the money this season. This one is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money despite never being closer than 6 lengths from the victor. She’s not likely to win, but a minor share is likely.

Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Susan’s Song – This versatile mare looks tough to beat here. She’s shown the ability to take the early lead or close smartly off a strong pace. I think the latter will happen here, but if the leaders get lazy early, she’ll jump to the fore earlier. She should be the winner.
7 – Wine and Spirits – She’s thrown in a few dull efforts of late, but ran a nice second to a horse that, quite frankly, it running out of her shoes right now in Go Go Diablo. I don’t know that she can beat the above, but she should be in the mix late.
4 – Pop the Latch – This one wheels back on just 8 days of rest, which suggests she’s sharp. She won that race against many of these same entrants. She would be no surprise.

Race 3: 21,675 Allowance, 6 ½ Furlongs
8 – Isleseeyousoon – This is a contentious allowance sprint and I’ll take the outside marker. There is a good mix of speed and closers in here, but a lot have class questions. This one is proven from a class perspective as he’s run well against both allowance and stakes foes. He should also appreciate the extra 110 yards of this race.
2 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This gelding has won his last two efforts. The big questions here are class and pace. He’ll have early company, but he proved he could last in his most recent effort. His previous tries against allowance foes this season have been dull, but he’s sharp.
4 – Plum Wild Again – He closed strongly in his last to win despite encountering trouble and changing course at the 1/16th pole. Again, class is the question, but a minor prize is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Race 4: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Icy Tobin – This almost isn’t fair. Icy Tobin is the ace sprinter on the grounds and he’ll set a very fast pace. This is a contentious battle, but when you factor in that you also get the stretch-running 1A America West, this should be the shortest price of the day.
6 – Fancy Gold – This mare takes on the boys after crushing a field of boys last out. She’s sharp and will be a handful for this bunch to handle.
2 – Lite Brigade – He’s a perfect 10 for 10 in the top two this year. He’s up against it here, but he definitely fits and could upset the top choice.

Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silk Selena – She returns to the races after running a solid third against similar. She’s put in a bullet work to boot. Mix in the jock change to Butler and I like this one.
1 – Somerset Girl – There is a ton of speed in here which should set this one up for a nice late-charging trip. She’s the best closer in the field and you know Nolan will give her the best trip possible.
4 – Dynabelle – Similarly, this one will put in a late run as well. She comes off a win at 6 ½ furlongs against claimers. Class could be problem, but she’s still in with a chance.
Race 6: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
8 – Mister Millu – There is only one bit of information to consider here. His July 20 race against allowance foes on this course netted him a second place finish, losing by just a neck. A repeat of that effort earns him a win. The class drop will help.
4 – Claires Connection – Toss the last race in the slop and you’ve got a very sharp turf horse. If that slop-tainted effort didn’t ruin his confidence, he’ll be tough to beat.
1 – Reengage – He’s got a big strong closing kick, but I’m not sure there will be enough pace to set it up. Then again, with as powerfully as he’s been closing, it may not matter what happens early.

Race 7: 45,000 Stakes, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Beyond the Reach – Single this one in the pick 6 and/or pick 4 and move on. She’s razor sharp and has the best speed figures of this bunch by a fair margin. Montalvo drives in from Iowa to ride. Formidable.
9 – Thanks for the Tip – She chased the super-impressive Run With Joy in the Frances Genter and finished second. She’s a good filly, but I’m afraid she’s run into another giant.
3 – Cant catch Judy – She’s done some damage against stakes foes this year in earning a win and a few minor shares. I’d look for the latter here.

Race 8: 10,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
5 – Unreal General – This guy has just been good this season. He’s 8 for 10 in the money on the year and has won or placed in 7 straight. He’s just good and impossible to ignore.
4 – Castor Troy – He’s been very impressive as well and just ran second to the above when washed off the lawn. These two should be very close at the wire.
2 – Trinity River – The 10 year-old has shown he’s not over the hill yet. He’s run second in two consecutive races. I’m not sure he can hang with the tandem above, but he’ll give his all.

Race 9: 45,000 Stakes, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Ghazi Up – He should dominate this field. He’s given 3 straight 80+ Beyer-worthy performances, which is more than the rest of the field combined: 0. Short priced favorite.
5 – Jagan – He’s been consistent this year, but seems to have topped out. He’ll likely settle for a piece of the gimmicks here.
1 – Dakota Hills – He just won an allowance race which suggests he’s sharp. Unfortunately for his connections, with the top choice in here, a minor award is the ceiling.

Race 10: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Miss Fancy Gold – She’s been knocking on the door, but hasn’t quite broken through yet. This is a pretty soft spot which may be conducive to maiden breaking.
6 – Wild Irish Rose – 30-somethings, if this doesn’t bring back college memories, I don’t know what will. While her namesake is a crappy wine, this first time starter appears to have some talent. The workout patterns are good and the Bell/Robertson connections are the best on the property. Very possible.
11 – Rockin E C and D C – She closed well in her last, but missed by a nose. She should offer some value on the underside of the exotics. Very playable.

Final Friday

After passing on last night's action, we're back to play the Friday card. It's only marginally better than last night's card, but it's an improvement nonetheless. Last week was plagued by the continuing August monsoon that hit Minnesota, but the last week has been sunny and pleasant which gives us the preferred fast and firm track conditions. I'll be back later today with the Saturday and Sunday picks.

Race 1: 17,000 Allowance, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
5 – My Friend Deke – The pace scenario isn’t ideal for this front-running type, but he’s been ultra-consistent all season in finishing off the board just once. Better still, in three efforts on the lawn, he’s been within less than a length of the winner at the end. If he doesn’t get caught up in a duel, he could finally get win number one on the year.
4 – Rallywithclass – He ran a strong one last time out, finishing second despite a rough trip. The distance is a question, and he only has one painfully average turf effort, but he certainly figures here for the top connections.
9 – Sushi Joe – There’s a lot of speed in here and this one is a confirmed grinder. It’s unlikely that he’ll win, but a minor award and some juice in the super are both possible.

Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He just missed against a very similar bunch last time. He’s a perfect 3 for 3 in the money this year and his worst defeat is by 3 parts of a length. The horse that beat him last time was on a considerable class drop and shipped in from Arlington. I don’t see anyone with those credentials here.
7 – Kasyno – He hasn’t run since early July, but he will set the early fractions. It doesn’t appear that he will have much company on the lead either. If he can relax on the lead, he’ll be long gone. The three furlong bullet adds to the intrigue.
2 – So Smooth – This one ships in from Arlington, but takes a step up in class. He’s been off his game in two polytrack efforts, but his prior turf form is more than enough to win against these. If the poly hasn’t ruined his confidence, he’ll be prominent at the wire.

Race 3: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
2 – Kelsey Miss – She figures to get a good stalking trip in here and may offer some value in a short field figured to be dominated by the one below.
4 – Princess Courtney – Her dirt form is suspect, to say the least, but she drops down the class ladder to a level at which she’s never run and her worst effort this season at Canterbury puts her in contention. She’ll be a very short price to kick off the pick 6.
6 – Consequently – Dismiss her last race on the slop and you’ve got a contender, though it’s hard to ignore the occasional clunker she runs. Playable in all wagers, but buyer beware.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tahkodha Bill – He ran very well in placing at 20-1 last time out, only getting caught at the wire. His debut was ugly and he was just nipped last time and I think he takes the big step forward to pose for pictures tonight. In a bit of an oddity, he may be the lone speed in a 2 year-old field.
5 – He’s No Piker – This first time starter for Justin Evans appears ready. Evans wins with 20% of firsters, too. Add in that jockey Lori Keith has put an astonishing 57% of her mounts in the money and the solid work pattern and you’ve got a playable one here.
7 – The Real Story – He’ll go favored, and deservedly so. He’s run a couple of nice races where he was gaining late. Somewhat puzzlingly Nolan takes over for Bell and Bravo adds blinkers in an attempt to get him more involved early.

Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Booster – He’s had some issues with wet tracks recently and should welcome a return to a fast track. He’s definitely the speed of the speed and will be the one to catch as they turn for home. He’s missed the board only once this season and shouldn’t miss it here.
1 – Lonesome Traveler – He blew in from the Windy City and stole his last race. This bunch is quite similar. He should sit just behind the above and pose the first challenge.
3 – Dark Indulgence – If either of the above don’t finish strongly, this one will be charging late and will make them pay. Morales has caught a bit of a hot streak lately and he’s very playable over the weekend.

Race 6: 21,675 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yrads
5 – Silent Preacher – He was clearly the best horse in his last effort, yet fell short. He broke awkwardly and was hung wide throughout, yet still closed to only miss by ¾ of a length. He climbs the class ladder a bit here, but a clean break earns him a check.
6 – Banker’s D Light – He drops out of a couple stakes efforts that actually weren’t too bad. He should appreciate the class relief and could best this bunch.
4 – Lowell Dean – Personally, I strongly dislike this animal, but he appears to be the most likely of the rest to hit the board. Plus, it’s important to not let emotions get in the way of making your bets, so I’ll reluctantly give this one a shot here.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Strum Bum – The Bum has one speed: Fast. He’ll bust the gate and put some distance between him and the field and sprint until he can run no more. Historically, he’d stop around the 1/8th pole, but this season he’s shown a little something extra. On paper he’s overmatched here, but I’ll take the Bum.
3 – Red Roller – He should go favored in here. He takes drop in class after finishing 2nd twice against allowance foes. He’ll have to catch the Bum, but he appears tough in here.
6 – Tez Taran – He’s a versatile type that should fall in nicely behind the Bum and stalk him all around. He also drops in class and 6 furlongs is definitely his game. Martinez keeps the mount and looks to atone for a poor effort last time out.

Race 8: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
1 – Audiahvo – He’s one of my favorite horses and he drops down to the class level that produced his last win. He’s a confirmed stretch runner and the pace scenario couldn’t be better for him as it appears at least three of his opponents are going to fight for the early lead.
5 – El Grande Seville – Of the speed, this one appears to be the best. He also drops in class after running second last time out in the slop. He’s thrown in some dull efforts this season, but he’s playable on class alone.
7 – Perfectly Quick – Dean Butler figures to give this one a nice stalking trip behind the pace battle. He’s run progressively better in each of his last three efforts and is 4 for 5 in the money at Canterbury. He’ll have to fight off the top choice late, but he’s in with a chance.

Closing Weekend

Closing weekend is upon us and it’s going to be a 5-day blowout. Every horse on the grounds is going to run this weekend. Okay, maybe not every horse, but most of them. As of now, entries have been finalized up through Saturday. Tonight’s card is awfully thin with a bunch of 6 and 7 horse fields, so I’m going to pass on tonight’s action. Friday's card is better and I’ll get picks for that card out either late tonight or early tomorrow. Saturday’s card is nothing short of fantastic with all but one field drawing 8 or more interests. The short field is a very, very contentious sprint which should be very fun to watch and may offer some profitable wagering angles. I know I usually post picks on Friday, but the skinny fields paired with being right in the middle of fantasy football draft season have led me to pass on tonight’s action. We’ll get some winners over the rest of the weekend, though. You can count on that.

After the rain...

Travers stakes weekend kicks off with a buck night card that actually features a couple allowance races. Although the fields are smallish, this is actually a pretty fair betting card. I think the best value will be found in the pick 3 and pick 4 pools, though doubles might not be bad. Forget about hitting a big tri with these fields. The lid lifter and the second race are both scheduled on the lawn, but it’s been raining pretty much all week so I would expect both to be moved to the dirt. If that happens, disregard much of what I say about those races. If on the dirt, I like Instant Attraction in the first and Willy Wompus and Castor Troy in the second. Good luck!

Race 1: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares, Turf
6 – Stormin Beeber – She ships in from Arlington where she was running evenly against cheaper claimers. While that isn’t the best sign, trainer Greg Weir has put 5 of 9 Canterbury starters in the money and this filly has the best set of morning works leading up to this race.
8 – Miss Dewali – She drops out of special weight competition to face lesser foes here. Her running style suggests that she’ll need a hot pace to close into. That could be a problem as none of these seem particularly keen on grabbing the early lead. If someone waltzes through slow early fraction, she’ll settle for the lesser pools.
7 – Sara Sidle – She shipped in from Arlington last out and ran a gritty third while being hung 3 wide throughout. She may set the pace with little company.

Race 2: 10,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
9 – Castor Troy – He won the dirt half of the equation in the battle of the surfaces on Extreme Day, yet turf figures to be more his game. In his first start of the season at this distance he made up 16 ½ lengths late with a furious closing kick, yet still only finished 5th. He makes the all important 3rd start off the layoff tonight and should run a big one.
2 – Unreal General – The General has won two straight and hasn’t missed the board since March. In his last race he beat a very similar bunch. He’ll go favored with Bell aboard and could easily get the threepeat here.
6 – Image – This 9 year-old has been remarkable in his career in earning more than $400k, making him far and away the most accomplished animal here. Also, he’s 7 for 9 in the money on the Shakopee sod. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s running well and should get a share.

Race 3: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Tugfire – On paper, he ran an ugly race last time. He essentially refused to leave the gate on time and spotted the field an insurmountable margin. That being said, after he found his feet, his was picking off horses one by one down the stretch, going from last a the top of the stretch to 5th, making up 8 lengths in the process. An on time departure could definitely put this one on top. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, which would be very nice.
1 – Blue by Your – He drops out of special weight competition to face claimers after showing speed and fading last time out. He’s improved in each effort and further improvement would earn him a check in here.
4 – Jestintime – He’s shown good speed while routing in he last three effort, but just couldn’t sustain that speed in the stretch. The cutback to 5 ½ furlongs should suit him well. The troubling point is the 0 for 9 career record, but take comfort in the 4 times he has hit the board, if not in the top spot.

Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Just Josh’n – I’m no fan of 0 for 19 maidens, but this might finally be graduation day. He appears to be the likely pace setter as no one else has shown much speed. Paul Nolan stays in the irons, where he has put this one in second twice while the glorified exercise riders that have ridden him in between haven’t done him any favors. He led late in his last, and may lead to the wire here.
7 – Just a Cut Above – If you play the above, fear this one late. He is the field’s best closer and will be charging down the stretch. However, I don’t know if there is enough speed to get a hot enough pace for this one to close into. He’ll give you a thrill, but may not win.
2 – Venus Fly Trap – He hasn’t shown much in four career efforts, but he’s as likely as anyone else here. With Houghton calling the shots, it’s possible, but not likely.

Race 5: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Hunter’s Monarch – This race has a ton of early speed which should set it up nicely for this gelding to fly past them all late. He’s not a deep closer and Houghton should keep him just a couple lengths off the lead and fire down the stretch.
6 – Born Running – Of the pace setters, this one appears to have the best stamina. The effort he gave two back in wiring a field around two turns bodes well for a chance to wire this bunch around just one turn. Bell takes the mount and will use this one’s speed wisely.
2 – Zoombyu – This one has one speed: fast. He’ll break the gate and sprint until he’s tired. He make the third start off the layoff and could give these all they can handle.

Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
4 – Katie O’Ready – She ran into a monster in Silver Trippi last time out, yet still held 4th. Prior to that, she had three 2nds and a first. This bunch isn’t much softer, but there’s no monster in here either. She is 7 of 8 in the money at Canterbury, too.
6 – Affection – She’s been favored in every career start and has rewarded her backers by never missing the money, though she has only 1 career win for her favoritism. She could pop the gate and never look back, but the price is going to be awfully short.
1 – Kokopelli Trail – With all the speed in here, this is the closest thing I can find to a closer. She won’t unleash a furious late run, but she won’t be leg-weary either, which may be enough to move up past the tired ones.

Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Fancy Gold – There is a ton of early speed here, including this one. The conventional wisdom would be to find a closer, and we will, but I think this one can win here. She’s a mare facing the boys and has been ultra-consistent all season and sports an impressive workout tab leading up to this race. I’m happy to take this mare that hasn’t missed the board since 2005.
6 – Wicked Pancho – Here is the field’s best closer and he should benefit from the projected hot pace. Morales has been riding well lately and may add another victory to the tally here.
5 – Taco Don – He exits a monster effort when winning his second race of the season in the last. Normally, he would be the speed of the speed here, but Runnin’ the River is a monster pace horse which could grind the Taco into the ground. There’s plenty to like here, but I find cause for concern. If the 2 horse scratches, this one is more playable.

Race 8: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Grandif – This filly is the only animal that has shown any talent. This field is littered with ladies that haven’t finished any closer to the wire than 20 lengths. This one will be heavily favored and barring something totally bizarre, she should cruise to victory.
1A – Trinstar’s Quest – She’s 0 for 13 and hasn’t run since November. That should tell you just about everything you need to know about this field. Trainer Jim Warvell has won with 33% of his starters this meet, so I’ll take him seriously here.
7 – So Elegant – Every other animal here has proven that they can’t win. This one has yet to taste defeat in making her first start tonight. The works are inconsistent at best, though the July 28 drill suggests ability. Although trainer David Applebee hasn’t won this year, he has put 12 of 22 starters in the money. A share is a definite possibility.

Race 9: 8,700 Allowance, 330 Yards
1A – Primero Vaquero – The sorrel gelding has been really, really good this season. I don’t envision him losing here. You also get Mr. Special Colors, which almost isn’t fair.
3 – Trevors Easy Tipper – Last season’s horse of the year finally broke through two back at 350 yards. This is a similar heat and it’s not out of the question.
5 – Callies Corona – This 6 year-old has also been running quite well. I’m pounding chalk here, but there isn’t much hope for the other runners.

Minnesota Festival of Champions

Well, today is the richest day of the year for Minnesota bred horses. Canterbury has assembled an 11 race card with more than $400,000 in purse money. Lately, I've been talking about the short fields and there hasn't been much value to be found. Today's card is chock full of wagering interests, with all but one race having 8 entrants or more. There was a ton to be excited about. Then, the floods came...After a summer so devoid of rain that the Minnesota state bird, the mosquito, failed to arrive. It rained all day yesterday and it is projected throughout today as well. The Canterbury grounds crew does a fine job, but the racing surface today is going to extremely sloppy, turf racing is out of the question and there will be an abundance of scratches. I was pretty pumped to give a full blown preview of the Festival, but this is just a total buzzkill. So, since there is so much uncertainty, I can't in good faith convince myself that I have any opinions of value on today's card. Below are a few animals that could make some noise in the slop, but don't consider these gospel.

Race 3: Minnesota Distaff Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
1 - Saveeta - She's been awful this season and doesn't belong here at all. that said, look what happened the last time she ran in the slop. She won by 2 at 17-1 with then apprentice rider Tanner Riggs aboard. She draws apprentice Jenna Joubert today.

Race 4: Northern Lights Debutante 6 Furlongs
8 - Pretty as a Smile - She shows great slop breeding and broke her maiden on an off track by 8 lengths. The number 7 horse will be prohibititively favored here.

Race 5: Northern Lights Futurity 6 Furlongs
8 - Wild Shifter - He has the best wet breeding in the field and will be guided by Seth Martinez.
1 - I the Jury - This horse makes quite the presence in the paddock. He's huge. That extra height might keep the mud out of his face a bit.

Race 6: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
11 - Silk Selena - Her best career speed figure was earned in the mud last time out. She's improving and doesn't seem to mind the footing. I'm afraid she may go favored with this off the turf, though.

Race 7: Minnesota Sprint Championship 6 Furlongs
3 - Gold Mace - He shows a perfect 3 for 3 record in the money when it's wet. He ran a quality third in his last race, too.

Race 8: Minnesota Turf Championship 1 Mile
4 - Bisquik - He found himself last time out and hits the board half the time in the mud, including running a career best speed figure on this type of footing.

Race 9: Minnesota Distaff Classic Championship 1 1/16 Miles
5 - Nishani - She's won both of her career starts in mud and should set the pace. Early pace in the mud is always welcomed.

Race 11: Allowance 1 Mile (Scheduled Turf)
5 - Tez Taran - 4 for 4 in the money in the slop and he draws Houghton.

TGIF

It's Friday and the fields are pretty slim again, including a couple of 6 interest fields. Oh well, the beers are still two bucks. The picks are below. I'll be back Sunday with a full Festival of Champions preview.

Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
1 – Oriental Tara – She fared well in the mud last time out, but clearly prefers better footing. She’ll get it tonight and should be the one to beat.
2 – Candlelight Dance – This filly makes her third start off the layoff tonight and figures to be quite involved here. She started poorly in her last, but rallied to make up a ton of ground to secure the show in the last. If the speed (above and below) backs up, this one will make them pay.
3 – Dance for a Buck – She gave a monster effort breaking her maiden last out. She should set the fractions and if she doesn’t get early company, she’s long gone.

Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 7 ½ Furlongs, Turf
1 – J T Kingfisher – He had all sorts of trouble down the stretch last out, yet still got up by neck at the wire. From a talent perspective, he’s better than these and a clean trip will prove that.
5 – Ghazarino – This gelding keeps improving with every start this season and has been impressive with his two starts on the lawn. There isn’t a ton of pace in here and that could leave him alone on the lead which could be a problem for the closers.
6 – O.G. Hunter – He was making up some ground in his first turf try, but was shut off badly around the 1/16 pole. Garcia takes over for Butler and should be able to navigate this one into the money.

Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 1/16, Turf
5 – Twisting Road – He ships in from Arlington where he ran fairly against a better bunch. This is a much softer spot which should get him some time with the track photographer.
3 – Mr. Miyagi – Truthfully, he really doesn’t fit here, but trainer Bryan Porter has put 19 of 24 starters in the money this season. Plus, there isn’t much pace in hear which may leave him as the lone speed. He should be a fair price and is worth a speculation.
1 – El Indy – He went favored last out when he shipped in from Arlington. He had a rough start and had nothing left to rally into a dull pace. He breaks from the rail and should get a clean start. If so, he’s definitely good enough to best these.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
7 – Tahkodha Bill – Okay, work with me on this one. His first start was a flop. He showed no speed, trailed, started to gain, was bumped and gave up. Fine, that was career start number 1. The facts are, he was working well heading into that debut and no doubt learned a ton. He gets a shot of Lasix tonight which should help as well. Anne Von Rosen is too good of a jockey to only have 5 victories this season. He’ll offer value and has a shot to make some real noise.
5 – Somerset Image – By comparison, this one had a terrific debut. Morales gave him a great ride and he made up some ground late, but got interested too late. I think he’ll be more keen to run this time and figures to go favored.
1/1A – Shoe Shoe Shoe/Chadder – Derek Bell will ride one of these two for Mac Robertson. When those two pair up this season, they are winning at an unheard of 47%. Watch the changes board to find where Bell lands and expect that one to make some noise.

Race 5: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile
2 – Autobeacat – He continues to alternate turf and dirt start this season with varying success. He last two dirt trips at one mile have earned him a win and place. Last time on dirt he missed by a ½ length to a good horse dropping out of allowance races. I don’t think that happens here…
4 – Dynamite Will – …unless this class dropping gelding repeats his last effort on the dirt. It came at this very level when he fell ¾ of a length behind a very good horse in El Inmigrante. Nolan gets the call for Jamie Ness which makes this one dangerous.
5 – Thong View – He ran a good one last out when beating a similar bunch. He should sit just behind the above pair and make a solid run in the stretch.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Ragweed – There is a ton of early speed in this race so I need to find a closer. This one fits the bill. He made up 14 lengths last time out when finishing third. Expect similar ground to be made up here with a win not out of the question.
1 – Come and Play – This one will also be charging late for Dean Butler. He’ll be closer throughout and will get first crack at the tiring pace, then he’ll have to hold off the above.
6 – Stevens Sword – He was the last of the pace to give way in his last race and it should be much the same here. If any of the early sprinters are going to hold on for a share, it will be this one with speed maestro Jesse Garcia aboard.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
3 – Keep It – After struggling in the allowance ranks early in the season, he seems to have found his sweet spot against 15,000 claimers. He’s better than most of these and gets the lethal Bell/Robertson combo behind him. It should be photo time.
4 – Stormy Half – This gelding won the first race I ever saw at Canterbury. As much as I would like to play nostalgia here, I can’t. He’ll be close and should get a share, though.
7 – Dezibelle’s Cat – The Cat is back after a few dull efforts. He won in a very sharp performance last time out and looks to be part of a contested pace here. If he repeats her last, he’s long gone.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
9 – Officer Big Man – This colt ships in from Churchill Downs where he was facing much tougher foes. He didn’t show a lot there, but the class relief alone may be enough for him to break through against this bunch.
2 – Maduro – He’s been knocking on the door all season, but just can’t get over the hump. He could win here, but I believe his runner up status is more of a trend than a fluke.
5 – Pine Siren – He takes the drop out of the special weight division to face claimers for the first time this season. He’s tried the turf without success lately and switches back to the dirt and sprints again. Sure, he’s a bit of an outsider, but he could add some juice to your exotics.

Gettin' Skinny

The fields are really beginning to thin out as horses ship to Oklahoma City to run for slot-inflated purses. I'll talk more about this at a different time. Simply, the economics of the horse racing industry mandate that owners take their horses to where the money is. Right now, Canterbury just can't offer the same purses. Anyway, enough soapbox for tonight. Here are the picks.

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
6 – Whatashotzie – A couple animals in this race ran into a monster last time out in Esperamos. He crushed that field by 12 and change and came back last weekend to beat allowance foes quite easily. This guy was second to that one, completing the 5 ½ furlongs in about 1:05 and 2/5 seconds. That time is good enough to win at this level. He’s the pick.
7 – Rapid Jack – He ran another length behind the above and I foresee a similar ending here. Either could win, but this one has never been closer than 4 lengths back of the winner at the wire. Expect a minor share.
5 – Texas Rose – For the show I’ll take this first timer that has shown a decent set of workouts. I’m no thrilled about the 1 for 42 jockey or the 0 for 20 trainer, but they may be due to break through with this one at a fair price.

Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Friendly Soul – I can’t trust the favorite here (see below) so I’ll give this one a shot. She’s making her first career start for Bernell Rhone and son-in-law Dean Butler and has shown steadily improving 4 furlong morning works. She’s ready for this and will give the field everything it can handle.
5 – Dette’s Dream – Here’s your prohibitive favorite. She’s finished second in three straight after leading into deep stretch in all. My main concern was how easily Danube’s Hawk moved past her last time. The Hawk was unable to finish at 3 ½ furlongs, let alone 5 ½. Maybe she really took a step forward…or this one just can’t win. Either way, I can’t trust her to win, but she’ll get some money.
3 – Digi’s Luck – This filly can’t catch a break. She hopped at the start in her first effort and was bumped last time. She’s run fairly despite the bad starts. A clean start gives her a shot a prize.

Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Graceful Touch – She’s going to need an honest pace to set up her late kick and I think she’ll get it. Martinez has gone cold since the split from Mac’s barn, but this looks like a fair spot to get back on track.
6 – Elegant Star – It’s interesting to note that Nolan climbs aboard here after riding the 2 horse in each of her previous local turf tries. This one figures to make the first run at the pace setters around the turn and then brace for the late charging marker above.
4 – Our Lucky Draw – This animal holds the key to the race. She’s shown versatility in that she can sit just off the pace or close from far off of it. Either way, I think Morales can guide this mare to at least a small share.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Squeezable – She combined with 31-1 outsider Jane’s Gold to blow up the tote board when finishing second at 10-1 in her debut. There doesn’t appear to be anyone to contest the early fractions with her. If she gets to call the shots, she gets pictures taken.
3 – Jayana – She just put in a solid 4 furlong work and looks like she might have some talent. With babies, a little hint of ability is all it takes.
1A – Rundanya – She ran a solid effort last time when finishing an even 4th behind the top choice and a couple others. A similar effort against this bunch will put her in the money with a top prize not out of the question.

Race 5: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Vasant – This one is purely a hunch. The six year-old gelding is 10 for 21 in the money on the local dirt and has run his best career races at 6 furlongs. He has one awful effort this season as he’s been slow to come around. If we see the Vasant of old, he’ll get some money, if he’s just an old Vasant, there isn’t much to get excited about.
6 – My Mega Man – This one just came back from an 18 month vacation and broke well before fading. The second trip off the bench should be an improvement. One thing is certain, the price will be more than fair.
3 – Chorus Lion – He ran a proud third at 49-1 last time in his first trip since October. If he matches that effort here, he’s a winner.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Rose Fever – This race appears to be the first good betting race of the night with ten fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. This mare drops out of the allowance ranks and has all the looks of a winner against these.
7 – Conquistaprofit – This one is all about patterns. In June, she put in a sharp 3 furlong work in 35 flat and won at 9-1 while setting the pace. Fast forward to August and she just put in a 3 furlong work in 35 flat. Repeat?
1 – Jovial Angel – She’s been really sharp this season having finished no worse than 4th. She’ll be the inside speed and may never look back if she’s leading at the turn.

Race 7: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
8 – Strongwilled Stuka – She ran very well last out, but missed near the end. She was clearly better than the rest of the field that day and faces many of those same foes here. Although the distance could be questionable, she’s 10 for 20 in the Canterbury money and figures tough to beat.
6 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare likes to come from off the pace and should relish the return to routing. She should be passing the ladies late in search of some cash.
4 – Close Clearance – She showed nothing on an off track last time, but has shown some ability when going this route of distance. She’s not out of the question if she can round back into the form she showed last fall.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Hurry’s Fighter – Big Jake and I have been picking this beast all season. It’s probably time to throw in the towel and look elsewhere, but I’ll give him one last shot. He appears to tower over most of these. If he can’t win here, he likely never will.
9 – Somerset Call – If you don’t trust the above, this is your animal. In fact, I’d expect him to go favored here after missing by just a head in his last. He seems to be on the improve lately and would be no surprise here.
6 – Shady Ghazi – This guy has shown some speed before fading in the past. Last time out, Jamie Ness sent him around two turns in an effort build some stamina. That should help him here. He’ll certainly need to improve off of a few lackluster efforts, but he could add some spice to the tri.

Race 9: 5,800 Maiden, 350 Yards
2 – Marlboro Express – She’s run 2nd twice in a row. Tonight should be graduation time.
4 – Dashing Tipper – He’s had a couple good efforts, but has yet to break through. He’ll have to leap forward, but he has the talent.
6 – Chics Go Wild – She drops down the class ladder to a spot where she finished 3rd two back. Plus, I like the outside horses in dashes because there is less likelihood of getting in trouble at the start.

Graduation Day

Alright, I know that graduation day is typically in the spring, but half of tonight's thoroughbred races are for maidens. So, it's definitely graduation day at Canterbury Park tonight. No pick 6 carryover to shoot for tonight and the fields are kind of light, but there are plenty of reasons to play Canterbury tonight, including a pretty challenging pick 4 sequence. The picks are below. See you at the track!

Race 1: 4,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Lunarco – This gelding has hit the board in 4 of his 5 starts this season. His only miss came one a sprint. Routing is definitely his game and he appears to have found a softer spot than what he’s been facing. Last time out he rallied for second, but was beaten 12 lengths by a very good speed horse in Gospodin. He’s on his game right now and should be in the mix late.
2 – Isaiah – He exits the same race as above and fell just a part of a length behind him. He hits the board at a better than 50% at this distance. If he can show some of the early speed he’s shown in the past, he may get an easy early lead and be tough to pass.
3 – Squall Line – The more I look at this heat, the more apparent it is that there is next to no early speed here. The above hasn’t shown early speed in nearly a year so I won’t be surprised to see him trailing early. Of the rest, this guy seems most likely to take the early lead. Lone speed is always dangerous. Butler is aboard as well, which is an added bonus.

Race 2: 25,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Causing Grief – This one looks prohibitive on paper. The speed figures are 10 points clear of the next horse and the workout tab is rock solid. Nolan takes the mount, too. He’ll be charging late and will be tough to fend off.
5 – Jestintime – This will be your early pace setter. He just missed against softer company and faces a much tougher field here. That said, he’s sharp, and you can do a lot worse than taking a horse that is running well regardless of the company.
7 – Tricky Titan – As you know, I’ve been picking Houghton mounts since he showed up because he’s new this circuit and would offer value until the locals caught on that he was a really good rider. Well, I’m afraid the secret it out. Dude won 7 races last week. Anyway, this colt has done nothing but sprint in his career, but is bred for two turns. He’s 4-1 on the morning line, which is probably a fair price. Also, I don’t trust Lowell Dean.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, Turf
7 – Byefornow – This filly has run second in each of her last three tries on the lawn. Frankly, the horses that beat her are pretty decent animals. She’ll have company on the lead and may be in for another heartbreaker, but she’s my pick.
4 – You Are – She ran a sharp on while on the lead in June at Arlington. She has since moved to Shakopee where she has been training like a champion. The company here is a lot softer and if she can sit off the pace here, she’ll have a really good shot.
8 – Sara Sidle – CSI fans, this is your hunch bet of the evening. She’s been running poorly at Arlington, but a return to the turf will be a welcomed change. She’s a bit of an outsider on paper, but Houghton and Robertson call the shots here, making this filly quite live.

Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
7 – Lucky Libby – If you are playing tonight’s pick 6, single this one and move on. This is one of the ugliest fields of the season and this filly should win handily. There are very few threats to her.
6 – Green Eyed Girl – She hasn’t run since last June on the California Fair circuit at Stockton. She’s been working well and has shown some good speed in the past. It’s a tall order to beat the top choice, but a minor share is well within reach.
1 – This Is My Case – Much of this field has proven that they can’t win. This one hasn’t run yet and has shown a hint of ability in the mornings. That may be enough to get some prize money in this affair.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Turtle Mountain – Alright, the third time is the charm with this one. I’ve picked him for a minor share his last two starts while questioning the insistence on routing. The connections cut the Turtle back to sprinting where he will be tough to beat here.
4 – Coal Fire – He somehow won in allowance company three back when the speed all stopped. He fits better against claimers like this bunch. If the pace gets lazy, Martinez should have this one positioned to swoop right by.
5 – Red Spider – Like the Turtle, this one should appreciate the cut back from routing as well. He’s shown good speed, but tends to falter late. The routing no doubt built some stamina which should give him the ability to carry his good early speed farther.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – Captain Canaveral – This gelding beat a group of allowance runners three back in a gritty effort at 9-1. He’s been drifting down the class ladder since when missing badly against higher claimers. This is a contentious spot, but he’s run in the money in 75% of his starts on the Canterbury dirt. He’ll have to improve off his last, but there’s a chance.
6 – He’s Got Class – This guy ran into a buzz saw in the form of Royalnregal Dream last time out. He was clearly second in that race and should go favored here. He’ll be tough to beat, but at short odds, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
7 – Lookatme Afleet – He threw an absolute clunker in the slop last time and continues to drop down the class ladder. If he returns to anything resembling the form he showed in Tampa, he’ll crush these. Short of a complete turnaround, though, he’ll be settling for a minor award here. The Ness/Houghton pairing is winning at a 42% clip this season, too.

Race 7: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
3 – Audiahvo – This is a tough race to call, but I’ll take a chance with this late running colt. I’ve watched him grow up at Canterbury and he always gives a fair effort. He’s 11 for 18 in the money and there seems to be plenty of speed to set up his late kick. He’s 10-1 on the morning line. If that is available, I’ll either be homeless or rich tomorrow.
6 – Willy Wompus – This gelding will appreciate moving into a race against fellow Minnesotans here. His last effort was fair, but he couldn’t stay close to the early lead and lost interest. He figures to stalk a pretty fair pace, and will have the first chance to pounce.
7 – Bay Talk – Marvin Johnson’s horses tend to run their best races near the end of the season. Sadly, closing day is not too far away at the moment. His running style should place him right beside Willy Wompus as the travel down the back stretch. If he can run with that one, he’ll get a prize.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
7 – Island Doc – He had a rough trip on a wet track last time out, but if you forgive that effort, he looks pretty competitive. Derek Bell lands on this Marv Johnson trainee here. The last time Bell rode this one, he only missed by a ½ length. I think they flip the script this time.
4 – Pardon the Deuce – This one is the big closer of the field. He’s made up considerable ground late in each of his last three efforts. There seems to be enough speed and fade types in here to set up a really nice trip for this guy. If the pace stops, he’ll capitalize.
1 – Ezn Thru – He was off slowly and didn’t factor in his debut last time out. Trainer Tim Padilla wins with 27% of runners making their second start and 23% of maiden claimers. Morales takes over for the apprentice jockey, and the morning works show some talent. I’m more than willing to forgive that dull first effort for a chance to score at a price here.

Race 9: 7,300 Allowance, 350 Yards
5 – Bold Maureen – She’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money at Canterbury this season. Winner.
1 – Hyla – She just missed in her last against similar. She should be there at the end tonight.
8 – Photos Dont Fade – Ironically, she faded late in her last. Still, the outside post will help.

Claiming Crown Day

Last year, Claiming Crown day gave Canterbury it's second largest crowd of the season. I highly doubt that will happen again this year since the program will be run at Ellis Park in Henderson, Kentucky today. I'm a big fan of Ellis Park since it is clearly the Ringo Starr of Kentucky racetracks. Seriously, Keeneland and Churchill are clearly John and Paul with Turfway playing the role of George. I kid, but I'm a huge fan of the Ellis Park 4% takeout pick 4. It may be the best value in horseplaying today. Anyway, we've got a slate of 8 relatively unspectacular claiming and maiden contests wrapped around a pretty solid renewal of the John Bullit stakes this afternoon/evening. The picks are below. Good luck!

Race 1: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
1 – C.J. Blarg – This one drops in against claimers for the first time this season and appears formidable. He hasn’t run poorly, but just didn’t fit against those. This spot is very conducive to getting a diploma. The Bell/Robertson tandem certainly doesn’t hurt, either.
3 – Luna Del Gato – This one also drops in from the special weight division except he hasn’t shown much in his previous 8 tries. That said, he’s been working like a superstar and could surprise at a decent price.
5 – Mountain Quest – We beat him in his last effort with Singitagaingeorge. He was favored then, but won’t be here. He’ll be in the mix.

Race 2: 5,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs
6 – Booster – The top three finishers from a race identical to this return for round 2 in this one. Booster set a solid pace last time, but was caught late. I don’t think he’ll make that mistake again.
4 – Sheba’s Charm – He exits a race where Pouco Moleque positively crushed an overmatched bunch. He ran an honest second around two turns in that race. He certainly fits here.
5 – Bertando’s Victory – This field is so evenly matched that you might be better off using a dartboard. Any of these could win and be no surprise. Bertando’s Victory is the only entrant that is dropping in class having faced 15,000 claimers in his last. That may be all the edge he needs to separate himself in a hotly contested affair.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Barfly Zipper – Trainer Bruce Riecken calls on Jenna Joubert to take the mount in this baby girl battle. This one ran a solid second behind a winner who did the job in 59 and 1/5 seconds. That experience makes her the one to beat.
6 – Allthefrills – This debutante gets Bell for her maiden voyage and has been working impressively in the mornings. If she can carry that form into the afternoon, she may win.
7 – Oh Baby Doll – She raced in tight quarters last out, but was only beaten by 3 ¾ lengths. A cleaner trip here gives here a very good shot at victory.

Race 4: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
7 – Maduro – It’s finally diploma time for this guy. He’s a perfect 4 for 4 in the money on the season at Canterbury and he has all the look of the winner here. It’s not the easiest spot, but he’s right there.
6 – Supernovace – This one will likely go favored. He drops from special weights to claimers for Bell and Robertson. He has also run decently when finishing second and third in his only tries on this track. He’ll be there in the end, but offers no value.
3 – Man of Men – I personally thought he was going to graduate in each of his three most recent efforts, but he faltered. He should appreciate the cut back to sprinting after routing three straight times. He’ll likely be the one that the above duo will need to run down in the stretch and deserves a look.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Fillies and Mares
9 – Shattered Dreams – Houghton gets the call and draws a good stalking post. He should sit a couple of lengths back and fire around the turn. This filly appears the best of this bunch.
1A – Oriental Tara – She’s been running well against this type of group and will likely find herself on or close to the lead here. You also get the 1 Diverse Curse as a bonus.
4 – Sweet Blarney – She drops in class and goes turf to dirt. A clean trip equals a prize.

Race 6: 45,000 John Bullit Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
6 – Prospective Kiss – There are many possibilities in the John Bullit. This gelding should benefit from a projected pace duel between Honour Colony and Sir Swervalot. If those two back up, he’ll be ready to capitalize and get the money.
4 – Honour Colony – The winning mare in the Lady Canterbury three weeks ago returns to take on the boys here. As mentioned above, she projects to battle through hot early fractions, but she’s run some good races lately and has a bullet work leading up to this effort. She should hold on for a share, if not the lion’s share.
2 – On Safari – Here is a filly that figures to capitalize on the pace scenario. She rallied bravely at 25-1 to place in the Lady Canterbury. I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned the tables on the above here.

Race 7: 25,000 Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Turf
3 – Did – Ignore his third place effort at Horsemen’s Park last time and focus on his perfect 3 for 3 record at this distance on the lawn. He’s not untouchable, but figures prominently here.
7 – Timetobook – He’s taken on quarterhorses in both of his last efforts and figures to be the best early speed. In a turf sprint, sometimes running down a quick gate horse is an awfully tall order. He’ll give you a thrill, that is certain.
2 – Castles in the Sky – This Thad Keller entrant ships in from Iowa to try the sod. He’s been running well and Keller only ships if he thinks he can win as evidenced by his 27% winning percentage at Canterbury. Don’t overlook him.

Race 8: 21,675 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
6 – Silk Selena – This is one of the saddest bunches of allowance runners I’ve seen in quite some time. This is essentially a claiming race with an inflated purse. Anyway, this girl didn’t like routing last time out, but has run decently in sprints this season. She’s the best option I can find here.
3 – Milly Wompus – She just missed against claimers in her last and draws Houghton for this one. She doesn’t fit on class, but she’s razor sharp, which may be all that is needed to capture the prize in this one.
5 – Minn E Scat – She ran poorly against open company in her last and drops in against fellow Minnesotans here. She’s 2 for 3 in the money in her career and shows at least a modicum of talent. She draws Bell for Gary Sherer’s barn that has put better than 50% of his runners in the money this season.

Race 9: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1 – Sparkling Endeavor – This race appears to be awfully light on early speed, which could set this one up for a comfortable trip while leading the way. The threat is that one of the many closers in this field runs her down late. Jockey Scott Stevens is quite adept at getting a horse to relax, so I expect him to reserve this one through slow fractions and discourage all challenges in the stretch. The class drop from the allowance ranks helps, too.
7 – Country Child – This one also drops from an allowance race and made up a ton of ground late. Of the closers in here, she appears to be the biggest threat to the inside marker.
3 – Mill Time – Of course, it’s always possible that a stalking type might win this contest. If so, this is the one with the best show. She has the tactical speed to rate a couple lengths behind the pace, but hasn’t really shown the killer instinct I’d like to see late. Still, Houghton will put her in a good spot. The only question will be if she’s good enough or not.

Friday picks

Last night's picks were mixed with some success. There were a few oddball winners last night, most notably Jane's Gold at 30-1. Let see what we can do tonight...

Race 1: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Roses ‘n Rainbows – She ran a brave one at 19-1 while dueling for the lead and placed in her last. The winner that night was in runaway fashion and the show horse has also returned to win, which lends credibility to the effort as she steps back into among special weight company again. The bullet she fired last Saturday morning adds to the intrigue.
7 – Affection – This filly is a quandary. She’s gone favored and failed in all five career starts, yet still finished in the money in every effort. She’ll be the shortest price on the board again, but I just can’t trust her at skinny odds. Houghton takes the mount, but I’ll try to beat her. She’ll finish in the money and likely kill any value in the exacta/trifecta pools, too.
1 – Lovely Kaelyn – This animal returns to sprinting on the dirt after unsuccessfully routing on the sod a couple times. The pedigree says she’s like the distance, but her spring form at Calder suggests not. This is a much softer bunch than those and she’d be no surprise.

Race 2: 25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf
2 – Claires Connection – He broke poorly in his last, but beat allowance foes under the wire two back, but was dq’d to 2nd. He is 8 for 11 in the money on the Canterbury turf, but has no victories. He’ll likely be a skinny price, but he appears most likely.
3 – Ghazarino – He ran the best race of his career in his first try on the grass last out. He’ll have to improve to best this bunch, but it’s not out of the question.
7 – J T Kingfisher – Mac Robertson wheels this guy back just 7 days after breaking his maiden. He had some traffic trouble in that effort and had to alter course in mid stretch, but still got up for the money. That was a real character builder that should suit him well as he faces winners for the first time. Bell moves to the top choice, but Garcia is no slouch.

Race 3: 17,000 Allowance, 1 Mile, Turf
1 – Chasm – He had a nightmarish trip in his last effort, but was still only beaten by two lengths. He should recover fine from that disappointing effort and could offer an intriguing option in a pretty evenly matched field.
9 – El Indy – This gelding is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes champion Rags to Riches. He’s not in the same class as her, but he’s been running against much better opponents on the poly track at Arlington. He’ll likely go favored and should be tough.
6 – Dynamite Will – He broke from a wide post and gave a dull effort in his last, but beat a similar group before that. I’m not sure who will be guiding this one with Riggs on the shelf for a couple weeks, but this one should sit behind the pace setters and pounce coming out of the turn.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
7 – Touchmewithmagic – Seven baby Minnesota boys do battle in the first of back to back heats here. I’ll take the outside first timers with the top jockey. He shows a decent set of workouts and is as likely as any in here.
2 – Tez Sunaman – My favorite trainer Tammy Domenosky sends this one out for career start number two. The first one was brutal as he stumbled out of the gate and had to check in traffic. Forgive that effort and look at the competitive works that led up to it.
1 – Brilliant Baby – The cagey veteran of the field is making just his 3rd career start. He’s shown speed in both efforts before fading down the stretch. I’m not sure tonight will be any different, but this contest is wide open.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs,
1 – Sahan – Domenosky sends this one postward after he ran a great race when missing by just a neck. The final time in that race was a blistering 59 1/5 seconds. If Butler can get him to repeat that effort, he’ll find himself in the winner’s circle.
5 – The Real Story – This would be my top choice in the race, but I don’t know if the pace will be hot enough to set up his run and I think the above might just be too much for this field. He raced widely and closed ground in his last and if the above stops before the finish line, this will be the most likely beneficiary.
3 – B.B. Hill – He didn’t get a good start last time and was hung 4 wide throughout. A clean start and less circuitous trip make him a definite factor here.

Race 6: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – Iwazascruffyboy – This is one of my favorite horses at Canterbury. Unfortunately, I’m not alone as he always gets plenty of support at the windows. He’s improved in each of his last three efforts and Nolan stays aboard. He’ll be favored, but be tough to beat.
2 – Dark Indulgence – I think the above and below may hook up on the lead and set up this guy’s late kick. Morales has the mount and I expect him to catch fire soon, perhaps here.
1 – Stevens Sword – This guy has either won or placed in each of his last five efforts. He should be part of the pace scenario with the top choice and Garcia knows how to handle horses on the lead. I think these two will duel and the first one to blink will have to settle for a minor share.

Race 7: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
3 – Royal Fox – I’m taking a bit of a shot here. From a speed figure perspective, he really doesn’t fit here. However, there is a large quantity of early speed in here and he is the only confirmed big closer in the field. Scotty Stevens is a patient jockey who will reserve this guy until he needs his big run late. If the speed backs up, this is your winner.
8 – Kitty Litter – In a race full of speed, he appears to be the speed of the speed. He ran well in his last, but encountered the class-dropping Keep It and was beat handily. The competition doesn’t feature anyone as classy as that animal which gives this one a chance to hold on at the end.
2 – Louis de Plus – He’s a bit of an enigma as he drops into the claiming ranks. He’s the morning line favorite, but there are plenty of question marks. He’ll likely sit just behind the hot pace and have the first crack at passing them, but then he’ll have to hold off the closers.

Race 8: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
3 – Lady Eloquence – The writing on the wall suggests a win here. Bell and Robertson are the hottest connections at the track, and they drop the filly in class and ship in from Arlington. Mac spots his horses well and this one should get the money.
2 – Lil Makena – Trainer Bryan Porter is winning with 32% of his starters. I passed on both of his entrants in earlier races and this one appears the most likely of his runners. That said, she’s still an outsider in this group, but could surprise. She’ll offer a square price.
4 – Ontherockswithsalt – This gray filly may be able to sneak away on the lead with Garcia. If that happens, they may be tough to get by late.

Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
10 – Rockin E C and D C – This filly is named for her owners and breeders, Edna and Dale Cheloha. Dale trains, too. Anyway, the workout pattern here is rock solid. I’m surprised she isn’t in a special weight contest. She’s the winner if ready.
5 – Mill City – She drops in from special weight company and should go favored. If the above isn’t ready, this is your winner.
12 – U Needa Rita – This filly has shown absolutely nothing in her 9 career starts, but I think the sprint/route/sprint pattern bodes well for a filly that has shown some speed on occasion and faded. She’ll give you a square price – that much is certain.

The day after

Yesterday's bridge collapse has me a bit dispassionate about posting something as frivolous as picks on horse races. That said, it is important to move on after disaster. Here are the picks, if you feel the urge to play.

Race 1: 7,500 Claiming, 1 Mile
1 – Par Five in Two – All signs point toward this one here. He’ll definitely be favored and appears to be the lone speed in a field short of talented runners. Formidable.
6 – Fiddy Cents – If the above falters down the stretch again, this gelding will have the first chance to assume the lead. He’s been improving with each start over the local dirt and another step forward gets him the money.
2 – Turtle Mountain – I don’t really understand why the connections here insist on routing him. He was a competitive sprinter and I’m not sure that two turns is his game. That said, he gave a decent effort last out and was in contention until the closers shuffled him back to fourth. He’d be a surprise to many, but I think there’s a chance.

Race 2: 4,000 Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Tour Me Honey – This is a pretty wide open race, but the baby of the bunch looks most likely. There isn’t much early speed and she may find herself alone on the lead, which is always a good thing. Bell calls the shots and should have this one prominent throughout.
2 – Jelly Roll Journey – This mare has given solid efforts this season, but can’t find the winner’s circle. She finds a softer bunch here, but the lack of speed may compromise her late run.
4 – Brigthen My Day – There is no sugar-coating it, this gray mare has been awful, losing by more than 20 lengths in 8 of her last 10 efforts. That being her history, she fits here if the price is square…and it will be. She isn’t the best bet, but is as likely as many others here.

Race 3: 25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Fillies and Mares, Turf
3 – Puff N Smoke – Smoke Glacken’s kids have been winning on this turf course this season and this filly figures prominently. She had a bad trip in her last, but ran first or second in her previous three efforts. She’ll be near the lead throughout and has a chance to last.
4 – Peakaboo Irish – She made up a ton of ground late in her last, which suggests she’ll take smartly to the extra furlong of this contest. She’s not exactly bred for the sod, but with her last effort and Butler aboard, she figures tough to beat.
6 – Graceful Touch – She also closed the gap behind the above in her last. Martinez stays aboard and stands a good chance of hitting the board with this chestnut filly.

Race 4: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Fancy for Ghazi – She won’t be the favorite, which makes her very playable here at a square price. She ran a solid race in last effort behind a runaway winner in Bump’ndazzle. This one actually finished the race in 1:00 and 3/5th seconds. That has been fast enough to win at this level. The pace here figures to be hot which may set this one up to collect the check. You also get the 1A Digi’s Luck as an added bonus for investing here.
4 – Dette’s Dream – This one will be the favorite. She missed by a nose when the above’s ½ sister caught her at the wire. I can’t fault you for betting this one as she seems most likely, but the price will be skinny.
5 – Playit – This girl will make her career debut tonight. She sports a fair workout tab leading up to her debut and could capitalize if the above falter.

Race 5: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
5 – Minnesota Mafia – This race features another group of Minnesota-bred baby girls. I’m going to take a shot with some first timers here. This one has had some very impressive workouts leading up to tonight, but no bullet workouts, which may present a little hidden value as she doesn’t jump off the page. Trainer Gary Sherer is winning with 29% of his runners on the meet and could earn some more cash here.
3 – Friendly Soul – This affair isn’t exactly full of talent, so I’ll continue picking debutantes. This girl also features a couple impressive workouts and gets the services of Dean Butler who has put 47% of his starters in the money. Expect at least a minor share.
6 – Bri Bri – I’ll say one thing about this filly, she’s consistent. She’s started four times in her lifetime and has run third in every one of them. If any of the experienced runners are going to hit the board, it will be this one.

Race 6: 15,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Keep It – This guy was previously running against allowance company without much success. Leading trainer Mac Robertson dropped him into the claiming ranks and scored against a similar group in his race. There appears to be a ton of early speed here which should set up a nice stalking trip for this one to get the money again.
4 – Strum Bum – The Bum has grown up before my eyes this season. He has one speed – fast. He’ll break sharply and look for the lead right away and he’ll stay there until he gets tired. Last season, he’d stop about 200 yards from the finish and let others pass. This season he’s shown the ability to carry that speed farther. We’ll see if he’s all grown up tonight, as this is the toughest bunch he’s had to face yet.
7 – Ber Bear – This guy might be the x-factor tonight. She’s shown a propensity to want the lead which could be his demise, though he’s also shown a ton of heart. He drops a bit in class for Jamie Ness and T.D. Houghton and would be no surprise at the end.

Race 7: 35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs
8 – Sir Tricky – He just ran a sharp second in the Blair’s Cove stakes and should get plenty of pace to set up his late kick. Value could be a problem.
5 – Lite Brigade – He led most of the way in his last effort before Bobadieu passed him late. He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight, but he’s shown a ton of heart and has finished first or second in 9 straight efforts.
1 – Trickyville Dew – This classy Minnesotan is 5 for 6 in the money at Canterbury and should be charging late. If the above and number 4 Runnin’ the River duel each other into the ground, this guy will be a chief beneficiary.

Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs
5 – Hurry’s Fighter – This guy has been fighting for his first win all season, but continues to run into buzz saws. For example, Betting Ladd positively crushed in his last race while running second. This one finished the race in about 1:06, which has been good enough before. The foes are pretty frail which may get him the diploma.
1 – Saints Surrounded – On the surface this looks like a reach, but he has a good work over the surface and drops into a soft spot against Minnesota claimers after taking on an open special weight field in Chicago. He’ll be ignored and offer good value.
9 – Just Josh’n – He’s 0 for 17 on his career, which make him tough to back, but he’s run well lately. There isn’t much for talent here, so there’s a chance.

Race 9: 10,000 Claiming, 350 Yards
6 – Dans the Man – He runs very well at this distance factors prominently against these.
3 – Mr Special Colors – Ran behind a couple very nice one in Trevors Easy Tipper and Callies Corona in his last. Might be good enough here.
4 – Rs Kir Royale – She finished a ½ length behind the top choice in her last and could turn the tables tonight.

Jock Talk

I’d like to take a moment today to present some thoughts on trends and statistics in the jockey’s room at Canterbury this season. There are only 21 race days left from what just a couple months ago was a full schedule of 68 racing days. With 47 days gone, I can conservatively estimate that I have seen, either live or recorded, about 95% of the races. Here are some statistical oddities and trends thus far this season.

Jockey Standings (through 7/29 below)

Rank Jockey Mounts Win Place Show Earnings Win % In the $ % Avg Earnings
1 Paul M. Nolan 275 55 43 47 $764,990 20.00% 52.73% 2,781.78
2 Derek C. Bell 216 54 33 25 $708,240 25.00% 51.85% 3,278.89
3 Seth B. Martinez 212 41 45 24 $650,264 19.34% 51.89% 3,067.28
4 Jesse Jimenez Garcia 189 32 36 22 $499,763 16.93% 47.62% 2,644.25
5 Juan G. Rivera 194 29 21 23 $427,465 14.95% 37.63% 2,203.43
6 Dean P. Butler 149 24 29 17 $370,840 16.11% 46.98% 2,488.86
7 Scott A. Stevens 175 24 18 27 $352,588 13.71% 39.43% 2,014.79
8 Tanner Riggs 211 19 34 27 $274,707 9.00% 37.91% 1,301.93
9 Nik G. Goodwin 174 16 19 22 $254,659 9.20% 32.76% 1,463.56
10 Dylan R. Williams 118 12 12 19 $180,238 10.17% 36.44% 1,527.44
11 Ry Eikleberry 114 9 13 18 $126,237 7.89% 35.09% 1,107.34
12 Alberto Pusac 135 9 8 19 $113,709 6.67% 26.67% 842.29
13 Lori Keith 45 9 4 12 $85,834 20.00% 55.56% 1,907.42
14 Adolfo A. Morales 98 8 12 12 $133,718 8.16% 32.65% 1,364.47
15 Martin Escobar 113 7 11 12 $171,992 6.19% 26.55% 1,522.05
16 Tho Nguyen 69 7 8 8 $97,911 10.14% 33.33% 1,419.00
17 Jake Olesiak 57 5 6 6 $70,112 8.77% 29.82% 1,230.04
18 Anne Von Rosen 68 5 5 8 $105,153 7.35% 26.47% 1,546.37
19 Keith Davis 110 4 7 9 $64,000 3.64% 18.18% 581.82
20 Michael G. Ziegler 58 4 3 8 $44,758 6.90% 25.86% 771.69

It should surprise no one to see last year’s leading jockey Paul Nolan and four time riding champ Derek Bell dueling for the lead here. On the surface, it is a bit surprising that Seth Martinez has fallen so far behind. Then again, when he and Mac Robertson had their falling out, most of Mac’s best horses went to Bell, so I guess it’s not that surprising.

Generally, you would expect the percentages of wins and running in the money to follow a similar pattern. For the most part, that pattern holds as you go down the standings, but a few jockeys stand out. Dean Butler wins his fair share of races, but puts an amazing 47% of his mounts in the money. Also, Lori Keith has only climbed aboard 45 steeds, but has won with 20% of them, which is better than everyone except Nolan and Bell and she owns the highest percentage of runners in the money with better than 55%. From now on, I’d consider every Butler and Keith mount live and they’d all be a must use in the superfecta for sure, if not the trifecta.

I’d also note the uncharacteristically poor showings by Adolfo Morales and Martin Escobar. Escobar historically wins at a 12-15% clip during his summers in Minnesota, but he has managed only 6% winners thus far. He’s had a rough first few months of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wakes up in August on some horses with some tall prices. Similarly, we are getting to point in the season where Adolfo Morales typically starts rattling off victories. I remember watching the races last August when Morales won something like nine races in a weekend. That may or may not happen again this year, but he’s another one that may pilot some prices home as the season winds down.

Lastly, how does Keith Davis continue to get mounts? He’s only hitting the board with 18% of them and has the lowest earnings per start among the top 20 jockeys. I’m not saying the guy can’t ride, I mean, he did totally dominate the ostrich race on Extreme Day, but stats don’t lie. Maybe he’s just in a slump. I don’t remember him riding at Canterbury before, so maybe he dominates Turf Paradise in the winter or something.

Some people swear by jockeys and even bet solely by them. I’m more of a trainer guy, but taking into account the jockey on your horse, and potentially the reason he/she is there, can give some hints about how the horse may run. I’m working on a more thorough look into jockey and trainer stats and hope to present those in the next week or so. In the mean time, look for Thursday’s picks sometime on Thursday afternoon.

Guys night out

Friday's card at Canterbury is all about the boys, with six of the nine races posting no girls allowed signs. Thanks to last night's rain, the pick six carryover grew by 40% and now sits just above $7k. This is the point where more off track money starts to show up. Prior to now, we only had to beat the local money, which is largely made up of a few savvy individuals and a ton of casual players. Although it happened earlier this year, scooping the pick six isn't likely at this point.

Last night's picks were alright, though I deserve mulligans for the races washed off the grass. I did have the pick 4 and the race 6 and 7 trifecta, with the latter paying $214.90 for a dollar. Top picks won three races and were in the money in all but two. Fair, but could be better.

Tonight I will also take a look at the early pick four at Prairie Meadows. It's a 50 cent minimum wager starting on race two. Without further delay, here is tonight's analysis.

Race 1: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Bella Notte – This debutante enters the race with a solid work out tab in a field that appears short on talent. If the favorite proves mortal, this one stands to benefit.
5 – Somerset Wish – This filly is the logical favorite and is in a relatively soft spot. She lost last time to a promising filly named Sucara. Bell keeps the mount and appears tough.
1 – Alacazar – You could do worse than playing this filly on her second career start. She raced between horses in Iowa against open company before fading badly. She’s trained fairly on this track and drops into a statebred field. The rail won three consecutive races last night. If she gets a clean trip, she could be there in the end.

Race 2: 19,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
4 – Zoombyu – I don’t recall what the field looked like on paper, but sending the one off at 12-1 should have been a felony. Despite starting his career at 4, this guy is now 2 for 3 in the money and will make his second trip off the layoff. Unless the firsters show speed, this one may be alone on the lead, too. 12-1 won’t be there, but 3-1 might be, and that would be just fine with me.
8 – Polished Britely – He was caught wide and lost a lot of ground last out which compromised his stalking trip. The pace scenario should favor his style, but he’ll likely be heavy chalk. Likely, but no value.
7 – Blue by Your – This first time starter put in a five furlong sizzler a week ago and looks to repeat or improve upon that today. The pedigree says this is his distance.

Race 3: 15,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – J T Kingfisher – He went favored in his last, but failed to run down Cedarwood who was very sharp that evening. J T’s slow late gain suggests that he will relish the extra furlong in this affair and will be tough to beat.
3 – Smoke Baby – This one has failed while favored twice in a row, but this season we’ve seen ample evidence that Smoke Glacken’s kids like the Canterbury Lawn. Angel Smoke and With Smoke have both broken their maidens on this course this season and their brother may not be far behind. He’ll make a late run, but Riggs has to get him interested sooner than Martinez has.
1 – Powerful Pepper – He got bumped and faded to eighth in his last, but if you forgive that effort and factor in the bullet on July 17, this guy figures prominently.

Race 4: 18,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
2 – Chaska – This event features the first, third and fourth finishers of the Blair’s Cove Stakes. Logic would suggest the winner of that is the one to beat. I disagree and I’ll take the show horse. Chaska has savored this lawn, running in the money in all four efforts over it, including a career best effort in his last. As a four year old, he may still be improving, which doesn’t bode well for the competition.
1 – Thrill of Victory – Horses that ship in from Iowa do so for one reason, and it isn’t for the purses…it’s to run on the grass. Trainer Thad Keller has sent 11 horses north this season and three have found victory and three more ran in the money. The turf breeding here is fair and he could offer a square price.
4 – Beau Named Sue – He was close in the Blair’s Cove, but didn’t have enough late. With a solid Sunday work, Butler should guide him to a better share of the purse tonight.

Race 5: 7,500 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs
5 – Dezibelle’s Cat – This is a wide open affair of 9 colts and geldings. I’ll go green here with this class dropper. He tried the turf in his last and showed next to nothing. The last time he sprinted, he got caught in a four-headed pace battle and faltered to fifth. He’s essentially moving from allowance company to 7,500 statebred claimers. It raises some questions, but he should be tough.
8 – Samislew – He figures to be part of the pace makeup, and has given sharp effort in his last two. He drops down a notch in the claiming ranks as well and stands a fair shot.
3 – Thirty Below Zero – There are a number of speed merchants here which may set up a nice stalking trip with Houghton aboard. He also drops a bit in class and wouldn’t be too big of a surprise.

Race 6: 17,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs
6 – Expect Colonial – This colt ships in from Lone Star and steps up in class. He fits from a speed figure perspective, too. Usually I don’t pay attention to who owns the horses because the trainer really calls the shots, but Balkrisna Sukharan is having one of the most statistically improbable seasons I’ve seen. He’s had 11 starters, 8 have one and another placed. He’s winning at a 73% clip! Ness calls the shots and wins 30% of his starters this season. He doesn’t jump off the page so there may be some value.
1 – Willy Wompus – He held gamely for second in his last out against statebreds. This is essentially a lateral move class-wise and Nolan and Ness pair up to give this one a shot.
3 – Tonys a Genius – This gelding has had quite meet. He won or placed in his first four starts before bouncing badly in his last effort two weeks ago. A return to his early season form gives him a victory by open lengths.

Race 7: 25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
2 – Silver Trippi – I’m on the chalk in this one. This filly ran a very sharp second in her last after winning by 11 lengths to break her maiden. She’s sharp right now and will be tough to beat. Bell takes the irons for Mac Robertson. That duo is winning at a 42% rate.
3 – Holly in Summer – She stumbled coming out of the gate in the Frances Genter and never factored. She won in this exact spot two back. I’m not sure she’s good enough to win, but a small share is in the cards.
4 – Lady L – She also had trouble last out and was bumped early. She’s got a sizzling 4 furlong drill leading into this race and may step up for a piece with Houghton aboard.

Race 8: 5,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
1 – Touchofreality – There is a ton of pace in this heat, but this one is certainly the class of the race. She’s never raced at this low of a level. She’s currently off form, but that may not matter against this motley bunch.
9 – Miss Tricky – The hot pace scenario here sets up this mare beautifully. She didn’t appreciate routing on the turf in her last but closed resolutely at this level and distance two back, but couldn’t catch Goldbrook who was alone on the lead that night. A contested pace may be all this one needs to score. Martinez should sit back and run late.
7 – Hard to Call – Of the speed merchants in this affair, this one appears to be the best suited to taking back a bit and stalking a hot pace. She’s made steady improvement with each race this year and if she can rate, she may fire off the turn and never look back.

Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards
2 – Prima Dancer – She drops from special weight competition and sports the best speed figures. And best of all, she’s 12-1 on the morning line. What’s not to like? The 0 for 21.
9 – Rushford – She’s been improving and drops down the claiming ladder. Possible.
1 – Lilly Lady – Broke in air in her last and still ran second. A clean break means a slice.
Prairie Meadows Early Pick 4

Race 2: 26,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs
1 – Shhh Real Quiet – This four year old son of Real Quiet is 0 for 19 on his career. He appears to have found a nice soft spot to finally get the diploma. Daddy would be proud.
8 – Rose’s Pride – He stumbled badly out of the gate and never factored when trying two turns. That may have served as a glorified workout. The extra stamina might give him a shot against pretty soft company.
4 – Sound of Peace – He’s been working well in the mornings leading up to his second career start. He’ll have to step forward, but it’s possible.

Race 3: 12,500 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares
1A – Apt to Thrill – This filly takes the plunge from special weights into claiming and looks tough. She ran a couple clunkers on the poly at Arlington and seemed to appreciate getting back to the dirt in her last. Big chance.
2 – Betyourpaycheck – This well-named filly also drops from specials and has been improving with each trip. Another step forward means graduation.
5 – Miss Sinner – She sat a great stalking trip last time and missed by a nose. She may be allowed to grab the early lead and coast to victory if she doesn’t get pressured.

Race 4: 7,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs
3 – Acreditado – The Brazilian is dropped down in the claiming ranks after winning handily in his last. I don’t truly understand it, but trainer Dick Clark spots his horses extremely well. Trust he’s doing what’s right.
7 – Sharkille O’Neal – This guy is a Prairie Meadows classic and always takes money at the windows. He too falls out of a higher claiming tag after a daylight victory. At 4 he’s likely still improving as he just ran a career best.
1 – Wallstreetgangster – He blew up the tote board in Shakopee two back after getting a good stalking trip. He ran fairly while wide here in his last. Look for improvement.

Race 5: 26,120 Allowance, 5 ½ Furlongs, Fillies and Mares
9 – Sammymae – This black beauty is a perfect 3 for 3 in the money with two W’s. Her form is impeccable right now and she moves up in class. There are a ton of positives to counter the wide post.
1 – Her Baby Blues – This girl closed sharply in her last effort. If the above slows down on the leads, this one will be right there to make her earn it.
4 – Sweetpike – She always gives an honest effort. If Birzer can get her involved early, her even running style might allow her to earn a share.

The ticket: 50 cent pick 4
Race 2: 1,4,8
Race 3: 1A
Race 4: 3,7
Race 5: 1,4,9
Cost: $9